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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They can improve the OF defense considerably by bringing up Buxton once he passes the service time date a couple of weeks into the season. Let him provide outstanding defense while he figures out major league pitching. I don't want to see any veteran delaying his start with the Twins. Schafer has a 72 OPS+ after 1400 major league plate appearances. He is 28. His only adequate position defensively is LF where his bat will never play. If the new manager see a bench role for a 5th OF/ pinch runner, keep him until they need the roster spot for an extra pitcher.
  2. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the combined output between Hughes and Nolasco should be projected to be about the same. Gibson should improve. They really need to invest the other spots in May and Meyer. They might not post much improvement over those they replace next year, but will continue to grow into 2016 and 2017. While 15 wins might be on the edge of possible, I don't think it is likely. The Twins need to build long term and stop wasting 2/3 of the season on decline phase veterans before they realize the team isn't very good.
  3. jorgenswest
    That was a bad instant amidst one of Gibson's best games where he did not walk a batter. His technique looks improved compared to his performance as Deduno's personal catcher in his first stint. I thought he looked more confident and in control. Gardenhire's decision to match a raw catcher with a wild pitcher is indefensible and set him back. Suzuki is one of the better catchers at blocking pitches and it should have been a no brainer to match the veteran catcher with the wild pitcher.
  4. jorgenswest
    The question is simple. Is Gardenhire the best available person for this position? The past doesn't matter. It is not a matter of deserving or not. The front office is responsible to the fans, players and organization to employ the best available manager and coaching staff. Is Gardenhire the best possible fit for the Twins? It seems unlikely.
  5. jorgenswest
    His OBP is .345 for the season. That's 20 points higher than Revere and one of the best on the Twins.. His ISO will improve. I would keep him. The chance that he approaches his ceiling is worth more than the nominal player or failed prospect they would get in a trade.
  6. jorgenswest
    I hope the a Twins build their bullpen without Pelfrey. I just looked at some recent Twin relievers and how they fared as starters in Perkins, Hawkins and Nathan. All three were failed starters. None of the three has showed more than normal difficulty in high leverage situations. I don't see how the Twins would consider pitching someone in relief where there are such obvious struggles in high leverage situations or with runners on base. While he may have a good ERA in the role, he is certain to give up a high rate of inherited runners. If he can't win a job in the starting rotation, they need to release him and develop a younger pitcher in relief that will eventually grow into a late inning role
  7. jorgenswest
    In the AL this year the k/bb ratio drops from 2.74 to 2.50 when moving from low to high leverage. The OPS against is actually .003 lower in high leverage situations. Pelfrey k/bb ratio drops from 2.19 to 1.02 when moving from low to high leverage. His OPS against increases from .716 to .801 over his career. It is hard to see how he would be able to have a significant role in the pen beyond mop up.
  8. jorgenswest
    The other questions... Can he pitch with runners on base? As a starter he can't. Can he warm up quickly? Can he pitch on back to back days?
  9. jorgenswest
    I don't think you would want to bring him in with runners on base. His performance drops when runners on base and pitching from stretch more than most. Any relief re would need to be one that usually starts an inning
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins will have a bench of 3 players at some times next year when they go to 13 pitchers. It will be a catcher, a middle infielder and a 4th OF. The fourth OF spot might be the best hope for a pinch hitter. If Schafer is on the roster, he can't be optioned. That really reduces the flexibility. He would need to be a very good 4th OF to be worth a roster spot and give up the flexibility.
  11. jorgenswest
    The difference between the Twins FIP and ERA is the largest in baseball. At the team level, it's not bad luck. That doesn't even factor in any negative pitch framing effect which would be part of FIP. Whether or not the front office believes in a metric, they need to believe in defense. Defense matters. The Twins defense costs them wins.
  12. jorgenswest
    If he can play ok defense at catcher, he is much more valuable. It is worth nesting next season towards continued development of his catching. I advocate for this role. -One start a series at catcher. -One start a week at DH against a lefty (sit Joe). It would require a manager with the following attributes. -Willingness to play him at DH once a week while carrying two catchers -Understanding that he needs to be paired with a pitcher that has better command than Deduno. He will determine the rest by his play. If he hits well, he earns more DH time. If his defense improves, he gets more time behind the plate. The 2014 time in AAA only pays off if he plays catcher. He didn't go there to improve his bat. Following 2015, his play at catcher will determine his future role in the majors. Catchers are so difficult to find. They need to give him every opportunity to find success there.
  13. jorgenswest
    Using UZR to project the future needs a good sample. They still describe the past just as using a player's OPS in a half season sample. Neither is adequate for projection in that sample. WAR describes past value. Defense should be part of that value.
  14. jorgenswest
    Defensive runs saved has a higher even/odd year correlation coefficient than ERA and batting average. I prefer all three numbers raw.
  15. jorgenswest
    A fair comparison. DeJesus was a minor league CF that eventually shifted to the corner in the majors. He did have an .895 OPS in 109 AAA games that followed an .842 OPS in a short 42 game stint in AA. DeJesus went quickly through both levels on his way to the majors. Rosario hit AA and has yet to perform anything like DeJesus as a prospect in the upper minors. He needs to turn it around starting today.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is any Twin who has dropped more in status than Rosario this year. Assuming Buxton is in AA and possibly Hicks in AAA in 2015, he needs to step up the bat starting today and into next year. He sure doesn't look like a corner OF. He could have been the starting CF for most of this season in the major leagues. He threw away that opportunity and has a lot of work to do to project as a major league starter again.
  17. jorgenswest
    A trade for a similarly down prospect might work, but the Twins really need a catcher long term with a bat. I hope they are willing to give him a start every series at catcher next year. It must be possible to match him up with pitchers with better command than Deduno. I would give him Nolasco in September. Suzuki has caught every one of his pitches this year. How much worse can it be?
  18. jorgenswest
    In partial season samples, the rate stats are meaningful. Strike out rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and fly ball rate. For batters, ISO also becomes meaningful by 200 plate appearances. WAR describes the past but is not that useful in projecting the future. When comparing Suzuki's rates in those areas to his career norms, a change in pattern can be seen. His change in performance is not just due to luck. Strikeout rate is a career low and walk rate a career high. Fly ball rate and isolated power are career lows. He has become a different hitter. His rate stats do a much better job of projecting as well as describing than WAR, but it is much harder to translate into a value. I would be surprised if WAR has much consideration in any teams analytics department. The basic rate stats play a key role in data analysis.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am still not convinced this is a rebuild. It has been a patch with older filler for three years in hopes of giving the impression of being competitive. While they are selling pieces they don't have under control next year (Fuld excluded), any team with a bad record would do the same. The direction will be telling this winter. Do they seek decline phase players and try to squeeze out one more year? Do they instead try to find talent from younger players that have been cast off after a small sample stay in the majors? Are they willing to turn loose Pelfrey in spite of the commitment to create time for younger players?
  20. jorgenswest
    They need to go young next year. No more decline phase players. Instead of signing Kubel, Guerrier and Bartlett they need to be looking for guys that have the upside of age and given them a shot. Once you have a Kubel, you don't look for a JD Martinez. There will be players that are 25-26 and performed poorly in a small sample chance in the majors. They are lottery tickets. If they fail, it might mean that Parmelee gets more playing time or Buxton or Rosario get called up early. It is far better than handing the job to a decline phase vet. Worse when that vet is making 5-10 million and is held onto until August. Instead of trying to squeeze one more year out of a veteran, they should look for a guy who might be a part of the solution. Maybe it is a guy who hits well from one side and the Twins find a manager that will platoon him with Plouffe in LF. Maybe Aarcia and Plouffe should platoon when Sano is ready. They need to take a chance on unproven upside players to build a new foundation.
  21. jorgenswest
    Seems like it would be better for Rand's career if Mauer were to tank the rest of he season. It is much easier to write about the failures. I wonder if there was some hope that Mauer would fail in the ninth inning last night.
  22. jorgenswest
    It should have started mid 2012. I hope they don't put it in reverse and fill with decline phase veterans this winter only to restart the rebuild next August.
  23. jorgenswest
    Escobar is third among AL shortstops in wRC+ at 102. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=300&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d Since Roy Smalley in 1980 only one shortstop has a better wRC+ than Escobar's current 102. Christian Guzman in 2001 with 111 was better. He is 25. He has a better than average glove. He is playing like the SS the Twins have been seeking for over 30 years. Is it possible that he is better than a utility player? Is our perception of a Eduardo still shaded by the disappointment of the Liriano return and the epic rant on Twins Daily?
  24. jorgenswest
    He has options remaining. He will be needed next year.
  25. jorgenswest
    They ned to DFA Schafer for Mauer and still add another bat for a pitcher. Can Farris bunt?
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