jorgenswest

There is reason to believe Arcia will improve. He will even look better when Buxton is patrolling the OF.

If the Twins want to continue their focus on keeping the ball down in the strike zone, they might consider acquiring catchers skilled in getting low pitches in the strike zone called strikes. Martin is one of the best.

The better prospects should spend more time in AA than AAA. Doug will know the AA players well. It's a good fit.

Alex Meyer was the better rated prospect by both MLB.com and Baseball America at the time the Twins acquired him. The Royals gave Duffy a combined 15 starts in AA and AAA before he hit the majors. Jake Odorizzi followed the same route as Ventura. Low A, Hi A/AA, AA/AAA/September call up. In mid June last year, Meyer had 14 starts for AAA. He had good numbers certainly comparable with Ventura in as many AAA starts. He had many more AA/AAA starts than Duffy. The Twins were looking for a replacement for Deduno. The Twins went with Yohan Pino. I think the Royals make a different decision.

It will take some time for the SS free agent market to sort out. The Mets might see Ramirez, Lowrie, Drew or Cabrera as viable options. The Twins need those two as much as the Mets do. Both Escobar and Santana are valuable next year and in the future. It needs to be a good return for the Twins. The Mets would probably opt to spend the money on a free agent rather than meet the demands of the Twins in prospects.

May and Meyer need to get significant starts in the majors this year. The Twins need to start Nolasco and try to see if he can return to form. Gibson will take a step forward and Hughes is solid. Berrios needs to get starts at the end of the season. I wouldn't argue with signing or trading for an ace to front that group. Signing a question mark on a short term deal doesn't help long term and slows the development of May, Meyer and Berrios. At the end of this season, the Twins need to know whether they should count on May or Meyer. Anything short of 150 innings won't begin to answer that question. Did the Royals worry about performance in AAA and consistency when they put Ventura in the rotation this year?

The Twins have been notoriously slow at moving pitchers through the system while they wait for consistency. I thought it might be interesting to see how some of other young pitchers moved through their systems. How about Yordano Ventura? Yordano Ventura and Alex Meyer both pitched in the Carolina League in 2012. Meyer started in low-A and arrived about the time Ventura was leaving. What was the Royals plan for Ventura? Did they wait for consistency? 2010- He started the year in the Dominican summer league. He pitched 52 innings in the Arizona rookie league mixing 6 starts in 14 games. What would the Twins do? Elizabethton or Low A? 2011- The Royals moved him to Low-A. This was Ventura's first full year in the United States. At 20 years old, he started 19 games and threw 84 innings for a 4.27 ERA. He averaged a little over 4 innings a start. He also was injured midseason. What would the Twins do? Would they begin him at the same level at 21 and hope that he found some success and confidence or would they move him up in spite of only 84 shaky innings and the injury? 2012- The Royals moved him up.He started the next year in high A. He started 16 games for Wilmington. On July 15 he moved up to AA. He pitched well in high A with a 3.30 ERA and lots of strikeouts and a good number of walks, but what about consistency? His start prior to the call up lasted 2.2 innings and he gave up 7 hits and 6 runs. His 5 starts prior consisted of outings of 1.2, 5, 7, 5 and 2.2. He was not the winning pitcher in any of those starts. In those 21 innings he did strike out 31 but he walked 9. What would the Twins do? Move him up? 2012 AA- The Royals moved him up. He was challenged. He struggled mightily in his first start at AA that summer (4 IP, 9H, 7R). Then he was injured and missed much of August. He returned at the end of August to start two more games. This must have shaken his confidence. How did he respond? 2013- He started in AA. He pitched really well in April and May. Through June 1, he had a 2.34 ERA and the only blemish was 20 walks in 57 innings. Was he consistent? His start on May 22 went 4.1 innings giving up 9 hits and 7 runs while walking 3. What would the Twins do? On June 1, the Royals moved him up. 2013 AAA- He started 14 games in AAA. He struggled with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.458. In his last three AAA starts, he gave up 22 hits and 10 runs in 16.1 innings. What would the Twins do? The Royals called him up. They didn't wait until 2014 to put him in the rotation. They called him up in September of 2013 in spite of his AAA performance. The Royals had a plan for Ventura's arm. His innings at each level are remarkably consistent. From Low A to AAA, He pitched 84, 76, 87 and 77 innings spanning 66 starts between low A and AAA. He did not show consistency. He was out twice with injuries. He struggled with walks. The Royals saw the arm and the strike outs. They didn't wait until he mastered a level. They didn't worry about shaking his confidence. They continued to challenge him. If Alex Meyer had been a Royal, would we have seen him in the postseason? Has Berrios been following a path similar to Ventura? He has 44 starts from low A through AAA at this point. Do the Twins have a plan for him to hit the majors later this year? Will he need to show consistency in AAA before we see him? Lewis Thorpe has 16 starts in over 70 low A innings. Where will the Twins start him next year? What would the Royals do?

Seems reasonable hope as comp to Tyner. He also played 212 games in AAA in his first two years as a a Twin. Schafer would need to be DFA'd (for the third time) to give the Twins that flexibility.

I am not as confident in his defense. The anecdotal evidence when he arrived was that he took poor jumps and poor routes to the ball. In a different forum discussion, I had shown quotes from the local papers and blogs describing his defensive shortcomings. I should dig it up again but to summarize... The Braves were quoted saying that Bonifacio would be an upgrade in the OF. Bonifacio is at best average in the OF. Brave blogger Biggentleben wrote on Twins Daily about his defensive shortcomings in August. The Crawfishboxes wrote of how his tools didn't match the reality of his defensive performance while he was with the Astros. This time the metrics back up the eyes of the reporters. Both his DRS and UZR are significantly negative in CF with over 2000 innings. In LF they are negative but near enough to 0. I am sure a discussion of lack of trust in metrics will follow. That would be fine if they were in conflict with the reports of his performance with the Astros and Braves. For a fourth OF, his defense would be passable if combined with the bat of a corner OF. That isn't the case. He brings a small hope of a significantly improved bat to go with the certainty of his base stealing and a possibly adequate glove. Coming up through the minors he showed all of the tools. His tools have yet to materialize in the performance of his bat or glove.

Encouraging article about a Kyle Gibson. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/11/9/7176551/expect-a-big-year-from-kyle-gibson-in-2015-twins One comment that struck was the value if his slider and the need to use it more often. They also took a look at a Phil a Hughes http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/11/8/7154475/regression-to-the-mean-phil-hughes-walks

I think I would give him two months and be ready to turn to Rosario or Buxton.

Long term the Twins need to make a big signing or trade for a top player that will soon be a free agent and sign them to big contract. Signings guys like Willingham are short term patches that delay finding a solution for the long term. Those signings continue the cycle of mediocrity. Spend big on a pitcher. Play Schafer and Hicks early in the season. Be ready to bring up Sano (Plouffe to LF), Rosario or Buxton by June. Somewhere in that group there is a better chance for a long term solution than Hunter.

Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before? I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performance through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps. Several of the players listed above have similar characteristics in speed and ability to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer. What about after age 27 and their peak values? Brady Anderson! 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances. 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27. I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level. What do the Twins do about Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 next year or do they look elsewhere?

They need to stop paying for the decline of middle of the road aging free agents. If they can increase payroll, they need to put all of that money towards one big addition. Sign a top pitcher. Trade for a pitcher or outfielder on a small market team soon the be a free agent and then pay the guy. One big younger addition will help more long term than signing guys like a Hunter or Rasmus and continuing the cycle of mediocrity.

I need help with tables. I have a table in excel (or word) but it looks awful in the preview. Thanks

The Twins need a new pitching coach who then should have influence on the pitching instruction throughout the organization. They need to bring in talent without any ties to the organization. The best guy out there is probably someone whose name most won't recognize. While they are hiring, why not use the extra coaching spot for an assistant pitching coach.

Through age 24 Saunders had a slash line of 196/263/306 for an OPS+ of 60 in 635 plate appearances. Following that dismal start he had an OPS+ of 108, 106 and 128 through age 27. The 128 may be his peak. Aaron Hicks through age 24 is at 201/293/313 for an OPS+ of 69 in 538 plate appearances. Instead of trading a prospect for Saunders, why not just develop our own guy?

At the time if the trade, Escobar projected to a Nick Punto type career. If Santana's glove is not solid at SS, he could have a Bonifacio type career. Great to have both players on the roster.

Away from Coor's Field in 2014. 160/224/319 in 156 PA

I am not sure they can get Ray Searage in a lateral move. Is he under contract? I do think they should consider the Pirates bullpen coach Euclides Rojas.

Would they trade Heyward for Meyer? Should the Twins make that move? The players are virtually the same age. Meyer comes with much more team control and much less certainty.

Is that because you have no hope they will release him? In your opinion, does Pelfrey have the arm health to bounce back on short rest as well as come in and put out a fire with runners on base? I hope they make him win that job and release him if he doesn't show that ability in the spring.