jorgenswest

The Twins have a lot of mediocre depth. I don't think Johan fears competing with Pelfrey, Milone, Duensing, Nolasco... Ten starts in AAA should show the Twins if he is healthy.

Vargas will likely struggle this year and I hope the Twins stick with him. It will be tempting to shuffle him back and forth to AAA. I think he will be a better player in 2016 if he is allowed to work through the struggles. I also think he has the kind of character that will handle set backs better than some of the younger players we have seen.

Thanks for the work. Every attempt at making sense on fielding data gets us closer to understanding the impact on the game. I hope to do some crunching on with the help of play index when time allows.

Thanks for the correction. He has road xFIPS as a reliever of 3.46 and 3.78 (near NL league average) in mostly low leverage situations. He should be projected to decline given his age. I am still not convinced he should be a lock for a spot in the pen. He needs to show he is one of the best 12. If he isn't clearly better than Oliveros or other young arm, the twins need to go with the upside of the younger pitcher with team control beyond 2015.

On Stauffer's xFIP... Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco. Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

I don't like the a rochester part. I hate the invite part. There is limited work an opportunity in spring. Why not look for a guy under 30 to offer these kinds of opportunities? Why not invite a younger nonroster guy already in the organization? Minor league signings of guys with no upside have an opportunity cost and hence risk.

Starting with the pen. The only guy I would have in red is Perkins. Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA. There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year. Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released. Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA. If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released. All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

I think a lot more can be seen than culled from data. Data requires large samples. A skilled scout seeing a player at different times during the season can learn a lot in a small number of games. Their work is worthy of respect. I object to their work and reports being labeled garbage.

I agree when it is a case of a pitcher throwing well in the majors the previous season and ends pitching well. Gibson might be included with Santana, Hughes and Perkins. If Nolasco and Pelfrey had the 80% anchoring them down, they wouldn't make it. The Twins need to bring the next best 8 north. Nolasco, Pelfrey and the other veterans need to show they are among that group.

I think last year's performance can and should be used to assess best 12. Hughes, Santana and Perkins can go to spring training and work on being ready for opening day. The rest of the guys better bring something. Meyer ought to have the opportunity to beat out Stauffer or Pelfrey or Nolasco for a job. The Twins need to bring their best 12 north when on field performance means everything.

I don't think it would take a long time to see footwork or arm strength or hands. I do think it takes a few different series spread out throughout the season to evaluate defense. I also realize a lot of prospect assessments I read are written by someone who has never seen the player. They certainly haven't seen them multiple times throughout the season. Some of those are aggregated as second hand reports as a result of talking to people who have seen the player. Others aren't even that good as they take those second and third hand reports and aggregate them into another assessment. I value any first hand report about a player's skill. It is not in any way garbage.

I think putting a good defense behind a young pitcher is much more valuable to their development than putting more runs on the board for them. Pitching in the major leagues is difficult enough without having extra singles falling in front of your outfielders who have to play deep due to lack of range. It is difficult enough without a catcher who turns the low strike into a ball. I think defense does matter to the long term development of the young pitching. It has been a long time since the Twins had even close to an average defense. It has been a long time since they have brought up a young pitcher who found success.

Wouldn't most scouting reports come from watching them play? How else should they scout defense?

Are you saying that it is not possible to assess a player's fielding ability prior to the major leagues and any attempt has no value?

Does that mean you think that Milone and May are much more likely to show they are better pitchers in spring? If Meyer is clearly one is of the best 12, should they still send him down?

Oops... Jose Bautista (not Tony)

What do the Twins do about Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. Dozier is 27 years old and will become a free agent when he is 31 years old. Until that time the Twins can give him one-year deal, albeit at increasingly expensive contracts if he performs well. Plouffe is 28 years old and will become a free agent at 31 years old, too. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs. Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports What do the Twins do about Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. Dozier is 27 years old and will become a free agent when he is 31 years old. Until that time the Twins can give him one-year deal, albeit at increasingly expensive contracts if he performs well. Plouffe is 28 years old and will become a free agent at 31 years old, too. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs. I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players who had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26- or 27-year-olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player who might be included in the group who should be mentioned here, because he is an extreme outlier. He, by age 27, was with his 5th team, having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 and he was just released by the Twins. Tony Batista, that one player, has had a performance since age 27 that has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All 24 of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player I grouped his performance in three season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not meet the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players had more plate appearances AND a better OPS+ from 31-33. The answer was none; no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were, though, two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group. View full article

What do the Twins do about Plouffe and Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs. I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players that had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26 or 27 year olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player in the group that should be addressed. One player by age 27 was with his 5th team having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 as the Twins have released him. Jose Bautista's performance since age 27 has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player, I grouped their performance in 3 season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not fit the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players would play have a better OPS+ from 31-33 as well as more plate appearances in that time frame. With over 20 players in the group, no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 career plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group.

Dan Uggla started his career at 26. He had a career OPS+ of 110 through age 27. The Marlins took him to arbitration for the age 29 season. They avoided arbitration and agreed on a 1 year contract for his age 30 season. After the age 30 season they traded him to the Braves and let them pay for the decline. Uggla's OPS+ 26-30 112, 108, 126, 111, 131 OPS+ 31-34 107, 98, 85, 26 Why shouldn't the Twins do something similar? Keep him to his age 30 season and pay his first two years of arbitration and then trade him.

Short and long explanations about how park factor is computed can be found at the espn link above (short) or the fangraphs site (long). Simplistically, the number of runs (or hr or triple) scored and given up at home are compared to those scored and given up on the road. Since the same bad defense goes on the road, the number extra runs due to the defense should be the same both places. When the numbers are different and the players are the same, it might be the park. When a park has three consecutive years (as Target Field does) of having more runs scored and given up then on the road, it probably should be thought of as a hitter friendly park.

They had the same defense in road games so it shouldn't be a factor.

Target Field was the most offense friendly park in the AL last year according to runs. Every aspect of offense increased. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor It wasn't just last year. Target Field's park factor has been above one in each of the last three years. Fangraph's does a break down by side of plate and it is more difficult for lefties to hit home runs than average. With the increase in doubles and triples at Target Field, it might be wise to build a team where the outfielder's have better than average range.

Lots of things point towards Stauffer trending down. -Changing to AL -Moving from Petco Park (0.826 and 29th) to Target Field (1.116 and 3rd) -In the decline phase of career. Non closers drop off significantly from age 31 to 33. -Used in low leverage last year. If the Twins change that use it will impact performance. His ERA and missed bats in low leverage situations were nice last year, but it would be foolish for the Twins to take last year's numbers and project something similar this year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor I also did a study of aging on relievers from 31 to 33 when the Twins were considering extending Burton after 1 year. He declined significantly passed 31. Unfortunately, the study is unreadable after TD's change in blogging software last summer. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-1759-burton-whats-is-the-future-for-a-31-year-old-set-up-man/

I don't think the a Twins management has done anything since 2011 to address the poor defense. They continue to add guys like Willingham, Doumit, Nishioka, Kubel, Suzuki and Hunter while moving Revere and Span. They throw Colabello, Parmelee, Plouffe, Bartlett and Santana into positions they have never played or at least rarely played recently. As a result, their defense has been the worst in baseball every year (particularly in terms of outfield range and framing pitches). There are many here who join them in believing that defense has little impact on giving up runs. It must be all on the pitcher. Let's fix the pitching. This year they could have fixed the defense. Instead of signing Suzuki, trade him for the best they can get. Perhaps they could have gotten Bourjos from the Cards while Molina was out. If not, it wouldn't have taken much more than Suzuki. Sign Russell Martin and Colby Rasmus this winter. Those three would have been a tremendous upgrade in LF, CF and C. They would have put our younger pitchers in a much better situation to transition to the major leagues. No. I don't think they are going about it right. I haven't thought so since they signed Willingham and Doumit.