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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Somehow blocking teams have to believe it is possible that the Twins will simply let Suzuki go. A catcher is going to create a roster crunch more than a relief pitcher or a guy that is useful as a pinch hitter. I don't see how the Orioles have a spot for Suzuki if stuck with him when trying to block. The Blue Jays aren't going to release Russell Martin. How important is Thole's ability to catch a knuckle ball? Suzuki might be a roster problem there also. If teams are confident the Twins will simply pull Suzuki back, blocking is risk free. Maybe if they had let Willingham go when the Orioles tried to block in 2013, teams would be more reluctant to block now. I think there is a good chance that Suzuki gets to a team that is interested. If that happens, the deal shouldn't be any worse than it was in July. While the Twins only have one team to work with, the team in need is just as limited in the supply of catchers. If a team blocks, I hope they let him go.
  2. jorgenswest
    He has a spent pen after the last two days. He is up because he hasn't pitched since the 9th and can eat some innings.
  3. jorgenswest
    I apologize. I thought this was about a news article about Santana and Berrios in the Pioneer Press.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am not sure why Santana giving advice to a rookie pitcher is newsworthy.
  5. jorgenswest
    Numbers aren't very useful for major league relievers. They are useless for minor league relievers as the pitch level data isn't easily available. The sample isn't large enough. The eyes of skilled observers who have watched them several times is the only way to assess. Scouting by stat line isn't going to be very persuasive. There also sent enough opportunity in the reminder of the season for a reliever to have a meaningful audition. The Twins need a body who can throw multiple innings this weekend. Whichever reliever is most prepared to do that should come up.
  6. jorgenswest
    Why wouldn't they bring him to camp next year? He is under team control. His on base skill has value. He is entering his prime. He is absolutely worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter and an opportunity to retain his role next spring.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am not aware of anything substantive related to interest in Suzuki. I don't think the Twins should be interested in Suzuki over two years. I do think that he will go to free agency looking for that deal. His agent should have a better read on interest beyond the chatter though.
  8. jorgenswest
    Both his framing and pitch blocking ability rank high at BP. He may not hit as well as Suzuki next year but might be able to make up for it if he can get more called strikes and reduce wild pitches.
  9. jorgenswest
    Suzuki will be looking for a multiyear deal. The supply this year is limited. Ramos and Wieters are better options if they make it to market. Hundley, Castro and Suzuki are the only others teams might consider starting. Castro has the framing numbers and younger. He might be more valued than Suzuki. Suzuki is next and could get a couple of year from a desperate team. The Twins may need to try to trade again this winter. Maybe they can offer up something better than Hicks.
  10. jorgenswest
    Let's look forward. Tendering Plouffe will give him a contract that is not tradeable. Do they tender him? If not, do they let him go without compensation if claimed this August?
  11. jorgenswest
    Like this. Polanco in LF seems more plausible than Sano in RF. I would think he can at least get close to the Robbie Grossman level of defense. He helps because Rosario, Kepler, Buxton and Santana all hit better against right handed pitching over their major league at bats. It doesn't need to be a strict platoon but it would help if Polanco took LF against a left handed pitcher for one of the starters and sitting or shifting Rosario to one of the two other spots.
  12. jorgenswest
    Players without significant contracts will get blocked. The return on others will not shift the franchise. If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go? What would be the point of keeping Plouffe in that case? His arbitration award will make him even more difficult to trade this winter. Taking him to arbitration almost certainly means he is on the 25 next year. If they don't plan on taking him to arbitration, why keep him in September? Play Sano, Polanco and Vargas more often. They can also let Suzuki go and give the time to Centeno and Murphy. Suzuki may be able to get a multiyear contract this winter. I hope it is not from the Twins.
  13. jorgenswest
    Logjams are good. Right? They certainly are preferred over what we have at catcher. Vargas looks to be a major league player. Not sure about Park. He can play in minors until Vargas gets a long shot or someone wants him. In 2018 Vargas and Sano might be the DH/1B combo with Mauer declining to an A-Rod role. In 2019 both will be on their primes with power and walks in the middle of the batting order. We need one more year at 3B with Sano.
  14. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Vargas' solid walk rates give him a better chance of more success as he grows into his prime. I think he has a more promising future than Park or Plouffe.
  15. jorgenswest
    They can give it next year. His weakness at 3B is not a weakness other teams can exploit. He handles bunts adequately. His arm is strong. He does make errors on routine plays more often than most. His bat combined with the bats at DH and 1B can make up for that deficit. I don't think 1B helps much. He will make errors on routine plays there also. The Twins need to plan to give him 3B next year. He will get better. He missed 2014 to injury. He spent much of 2015 at DH with the Twins. He spent the following off season and spring and first two months of 2016 in RF. The last time he had regular play at 3B over a season was 2013.
  16. jorgenswest
    Of course, Hazel was hit in the head by a pitch in the spring of '58 and again early in the season. He spent a week in the hospital trying to get his equilibrium. I think that injury would be understood differently today. The Twins should have kept Buxton down in AAA for a longer stretch. They didn't. Once they made that decision, they should have stuck with him through these struggles at the major league level. The worst case is to bounce him back and forth. Playing time is not an issue. Santana and Grossman can be reserves. They don't have any other young player they need to get in the OF.
  17. jorgenswest
    Chatannoga played 7 games this week. Garver caught just two of them. As much as we like the slash stats and .761 OPS, we have to know that he isn't ready or prepared to be a starting major league catcher next year. The Twins have to look elsewhere. They also need to give him regular time at catcher in AAA next year.
  18. jorgenswest
    I was surprised that the most extreme of ground ball pitchers had this duo. For pitchers like Santiago or Hughes there may not be that many chances in the infield. I want a good outfield for them. For a guy like Gibson that relies on grounders and double plays, I would think they want the best infield defense.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would use three years to project forward weighted by current year. OPS doesn't project well short of smaller samples. I would never expect monthly data to be stable or even consider it. Sample too small. Wouldn't be meaningful.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is not a selective end point though. It is the current end point. Going back a month would be selective. At the end of the season, coming back to this point would be selective. It might be a relevant select point if an injury were to occur. I am. It sure how whatever how his OPS a month ago would be a relevant selective end point. Mathematically, there is no difference in a player who has a .795 OPS now and it is his low point of the season. OPS needs a large sample to be meaningful. Chunking it in month to month sets shows nothing more than random variation and has no meaning for a player's performance. It doesn't matter how he arrived at .795 today. Joe is no more likely than the other player to drop from that level in the next month. It isn't even enough sample to suggest that Joe is trending up or the other trending down.
  21. jorgenswest
    Mathematically it doesn't matter how he got to .800 or that it is a relative high point. As judged by OPS, his performance would be no different than that of a player who ended his season with .800 as the low point.
  22. jorgenswest
    The repeated questions about Mauer are not bothersome. We have new people on this site all of the time. It is a reasonable question to ask given the number of 1Bs/DHs on the team.
  23. jorgenswest
    If someone claims Plouffe to block the Tigers, do you let him go?
  24. jorgenswest
    There isn't a magic number but it is important that the stretches at a level are long enough to see that performance is stable. He didn't have that chance this year. He won't get it by being sent down now. The Twins called up too early and then bounced him back and forth.
  25. jorgenswest
    Which guys would benefit more from the AFL? Who will be playing winter ball? Both opportunities may mean more for the development than sitting most days on the bench. The Twons have mostly young players that they need to keep playing. Park, Murphy, Chargois and whoever is sent down for Plouffe. That brings them to 16 position players. There is no playing time space for more than 16. The rotation of Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Duffey need to continue. I suppose they could go to a 6 man rotation to reduce innings. They do need to resist the urge to bring up a guy to try to generate interest and sell tickets. They aren't going to learn anything in a handful of starts from Mejia. They could add two relievers. Chargois and maybe Light. If they are able to trade Suzuki or Plouffe or Milone in August that would clear some playing time for other players. There is little development value in calling them up. They may have a great September like Pinto or Parmelee and get fans excited but it won't do anything to advance the player.
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