jorgenswest

Santana was essentially league average from ages 27-31. The outlook for that group isn't encouraging from ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ With decline expected every year, this year was his best chance of being a significant help and pitching near league average. He let his team down and forfeited half of that year. Luckily for the Twins, other pitchers stepped up. They don't deserve to lose their spot. That sends a bad message to the club house and the team.

There is space for all of the players named above on the 40. There will be next year also. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/#commentsStart

It is unreasonable to expect number 2 performance from Santana. Going back 5 years, he has one season with the Royals where he performed at that level. That performance was aided by a fantastic defense. He is projected for an ERA of 4.31 by steamer. He had an ERA+ of 93 last year. A number 4 starter this year is a much more reasonable expectation. The Twins certainly have not missed him in the first half. His starts have likely gone to May, Milone or Pelfrey all of whom are outperforming his projection. In fact it is likely that the Twins have benefitted in the win column due to his absence.

Any long term projections really need to look back long term. A few months of data is not very useful in projecting long term. Three full years minimum are needed. I hope the Twins are not reacting to this just year and valuing Kepler ahead of Arcia.

Move him to AAA or keep him in AA. Call him up in September or play him in the AFL. I don't think any of those will significantly change his career path. The only mistake would be to use an option this year.

Is it possible to both be encouraged by his production and concerned about his strike zone management? Is it possible to do so without calling for his call up today or trashing him? I think he will be a productive player in the majors. I think the best route is to finish the year in AA. Follow that with an addition to the 40 in the winter and begin 2016 in AAA. Maybe we won't see him until September 2016. He might need all three options before he has a valuable role. Is that trashing him?

You are right. They would be hard to find. The best prospects don't stay the full season at the same level. They would do well in all aspects and move up in June. It is really difficult to lead your full season level in home runs or RBIs or even be among the top three when you don't stay there a full season. If you limit yourself to only those players who played the full season at A, A+ and AA you would have a very skewed group void of most good major leaguers.

With the depth of the Twins system, they will have several players that need to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the rule 5 draft. Are there so many that the Twins should consider trading some of them this summer? How many spots will reasonably be available this winter? With the DFA of Tim Stauffer, the Twins currently have 40 men on their 40 man roster. There is one spot available as Ervin Santana will not count until he return in July. The Twins will have some players entering free agency following the season. Those spots will be open. Those players include Torii Hunter Blaine Boyer Mike Pelfrey Brian Duensing Any of those players can be replaced. The Twins should not feel the urgency to extend them this summer. They might consider trading them for whatever the market will return. That is 4 spots. The remaining 36 are under team control in some form or another. Some will be eligible for arbitration. The Twins may elect not to take them to arbitration. Trevor Plouffe Jordan Schafer Tommy Milone Shane Robinson Eduardo Nunez Casey Fien Eduardo Escobar I would think that Plouffe, Fien and Escobar would be offered arbitration. If Milone isn't traded, he may also be offered arbitration. I would think Schafer, Robinson and Nunez can be replaced. Adding those three that is 7 spots The Twins have some players on the 40 man roster that might be considered close to replacement level. They include A.J. Achter Logan Darnell J.R. Graham Ryan Pressly Caleb Thielbar Aaron Thompson Michael Tonkin Jason Wheeler Chris Herrmann Josmil Pinto Doug Bernier Aaron Hicks Darnell and Wheeler are lefthanded and may not make it through rule 5 but have little upside. The Twins really need to see what they have in Achter, Thielbar and Tonkin this season. At their age, if they don't feel Achter and Thielbar are worth a long look on the roster, they probably feel like they can be replaced. Pinto now has red flags due to concussions. If he can't catch does he have a spot? Among this list, I think Graham, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and Hicks are safe. The rest can be thrown with the group that will need to be put on the 40. That is 7 more spots for a total of 14. You could probably add Suzuki, Mauer and Nolasco to the performing near replacement level list but they have too much money tied into their contract. The Twins could free up a spot if they found a way to dump their contracts. There are two players that don't need to be added to the 40 until the following year, but could get called to the majors in 2015. Buxton and Berrios. They would not be a good candidate for a September call up because of the 40 man status. The only reason to call them up would be to help the team soon. I think they will call up Buxton. With Ervin Santana's return, I don't think we will see Berrios until 2016. 13 spots These are the players will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not put on the 40. Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Duffey, Tyler Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Jones, Zack Melotakis, Mason Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rogers, Taylor Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam Michael, Levi Johnson, Cole Goodrum, Niko 13 spots for those and players above not yet added. I think adding Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker are givens. 7 spots Achter, Thielbar and Herrman should be safe. 4 spots In summary... Hunter, Pelfey, Boyer, Duensing, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Darnell, Thompson, Wheeler and Bernier were removed Buxton, Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker were added There are 4 more spots. Are there more than 4 players that urgently need to be added? Do the Twins need to trade away prospects due to 40 man roster decision this winter? Note: Thanks to TD and the organizational report. It is very likely I missed something or someone in doing this article. Any help would be appreciated. Edit: Schafer released. Buxton added to 40. Bernier removed. Fryer added. I would remove Fryer at end of season.

He is well worth a spot on the 40 man roster in 2016-17 in order to try to develop his bat from minor league power hitter to major league power hitter. Every year the Twins have no upside players taking spots on the 40. It might be wise to wait until next year to put him on the 40 in order to maximize the development time against MLB competition.

Terry Ryan has had success finding bargains in winter free agency. Kurt Suzuki was an all star. Jared Burton was a top set up man. Ryan Doumit provided a very good bat. In all three cases, the Twins chose to extend into their thirties rather than sell. It is not possible to know what the offers could have been for those players. They were all performing well enough to be valued by other teams and there would have been offers. All three could point to some aspect of their games or health that had changed their skill level. Instead the Twins chose to extend. A look at their performance before and after extension. Ryan Doumit (Extended through 2014 on 6/29/2012) Before 229 PA 271/332/443 OPS of 775 After 1003 PA 248/300/406 OPS of 706 A Great Deal From Any Perspective Jared Burton (Extended through 2014 on 12/6/2012) Before 62 IP 2.18 ERA 8.0 K/9 2.3 BB/9 After 130 IP 4.08 ERA 7.4 K/9 3.3 BB/9 Kurt Suzuki (Extended through 2016 on 7/31/2014) Before 348 PA 306/369/391 OPS of 760 After 337 PA 238/294/332 OPS of 626 Is his offense success sustainable? Who do the Twins buy high in 2015? Extension Candidate Number 1: Mike Pelfrey Pelfrey leads the team with a 2.28 ERA after 11 starts. Opposing batters have a .654 OPS against him. Is it his split fingered fastball getting more groundballs? How is Mike Pelfrey Doing This? Extension Candidate Number 2: Torii Hunter Hunter is second on the team with a 757 OPS. That OPS is just slightly lower than his OPS in 2014. He also leads the post game dance celebrations. He is credited with being a great leader for the young players. He is part of an outfield defense that looks markedly improved. Stick a Fork in Hunter: He's Done Extension Candidate Number 3: Blaine Boyer Boyer the Destroyer. He has gone from signing a minor league contract this winter to the Twins new set up man. He has a 2.48 ERA in a team high 29 games pitched. Is his refined change up finally allowing him to be effective against left handed pitching? Twins Best Kept Secret The deals for Suzuki, Burton and Doumit were well received. It was believed Suzuki would sustain his offensive success. Burton's history of arm trouble were behind him. Doumit's two year extension was a great deal from any perspective. Who do they extend this summer?

His xFIP of 4.36 suggests that he will not match his production of the first few months. The Twins made the mistake of believing Suzuki and changed his skill level in his all star performance in the first half of 2014. Will they make the same mistake with Pelfrey?

Is it possible he is exactly where he needs to be? His offensive output should leave us encouraged for the future. His strike out numbers should point to the hard work in front of him before he is ready for the major leagues. He is succeeding in AA and he still has work to do at that level. I expect that he will continue that work in AAA in 2016 and contribute at the major league level in 2017 having improved his ability to judge the strike zone. Can I both believe in his production and realize is has some hard work in front of him?

There is no way a pitchers with a 4.36 xFIP brings back an ace or a stud. That is not being a proponent of trading him. Do the Twins buy high on Pelfrey as they did with Doumit and Suzuki? Do they sell high and take the best the market will offer? Do they let it ride and make a qualifying offer if his second half matches his first half?

The bright spot might be the outfield defense.

Thoughts at the time of the signing can be seen here and here The original article concluded Being opposed was a minority opinion. Those in favor saw the low cost contract and the strike out rate. Those concerned saw the context of a low leverage reliever in Petco Park coming to the AL. The market for good right handed relievers was set north of 5 million this winter. His contract alone should have been a huge red flag that other teams were looking beyond the Petco numbers and weren't impressed with what they saw.

Walker swings at 33.2% pitches out of the zone. Only Kepler has a greater rate among Chattanooga players. Of the out of zone pitches, he only makes contact on 45.2%. That is the lowest among the Lookouts. It is a worrisome combination. You either need to be able to lay off pitches out of the zone or do a better job of making contact with those pitches. Kepler for example swings at 33.8% of pitches out of the zone but makes contact with 72.6% of those. Sano is the other end, he has a 50.5% out of the zone contact rate while swing at 21.9% of pitches out of the zone. There have been several thoughts on Walker lately. I studied other players with high K + high ISO rates in AA and looked to see how often they found success at the major league level. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6625-adam-walker-looking-for-comps/

Logan Lombana is a great kid. Seen him play with or against my kids from little league through high school. Very good athlete. Was also one of the best high school soccer goalies in Northern California.

If Walker believes like some on this site that his strikeout rate doesn't matter, he will not make it. He has to judge the zone better. I think he can do it. His strke out rate over last three levels. A - 20.8% A+ - 28.2% AA - 35.5% He needs to work every day to stop that trend.It matters.

Extend and trade aren't the only two choices. They can also let it play out. If he finishes strong with better than league average ERA they can make him a qualifying offer. They can't trade him at the deadline if he continues strong and they are contending.

Correa's numbers were better int he Texas League and the PCL but Buxton's overall line would likely be also. There is upside in Buxton they won't find in any reasonable summer acquisition. His defense and speed raise his floor. If the Twins are going to find a player that might shift the record 2 or 3 wins the rest of the way, I think Buxton is the best bet. He would be taking at bats away from primarily Rosario, Hicks and Vargas. There is as much reason to be concerned about the performance of any of those three as there is Buxton.

You are correct about Springer. He has a different talent set. The comp is the strike outs and ISO in the minors and whether players with high rates in both were able to find success in the majors. It will be an encouraging sign if Walker's strike out rate drops to around 25%. He will then join several others who have found success in spite of a high minor league strike out rate.

You are right about the 40. Whatever the plan was entering the season, their record after 60 games has to alter that plan. They still would use Torii in RF once or twice a series and sit either Hicks or Rosario. Hughes and May with their fly ball tendencies would benefit from a Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield. Only the Royals can top that for defense.

Seems like a no brainer to me. The Twins might have been wise to wait on his service time clock had the season progressed as expected. Now that they are in the midst of a run, is there any player with the potential to have a greater impact? If they had the plan of a September call up, now is the time to change the plan. What is the risk? He will be taking at bats from among Vargas, Hicks and Rosario. They have RC+ of 85, 66 and 95 and with those the Twins have the best record in the AL. Even if Buxton performs in the midst of those number he adds defense and speed. Let's do it. Dump the 13th pitcher.

You have to be excited about Adam Brett Walker's performance in AA. He leads all AA players with an ISO of .312. This isn't new. He had the second best ISO in the Florida State League last year at .190. Where is all of the top prospect love? It is hard to get past his strike out rates. Not only does he lead all AA players in ISO but he also leads in strike out rate at 35.5%. Some look at the strike out rate and dismiss Walker as a prospect. Certainly major league pitchers would take better advantage of his poor strike zone judgment. I wondered in there were any other AA players among the league leaders in both strike out rate and ISO that became solid major league players. Below is a list of players who were among the top of their league in both AA categories since 2006. Brandon Wood Kody Kirkland Chip Cannon Wilkin Ramirez Greg Halman Brandon Waring Carlos Peguero Joe Benson Kyle Russell Derek Norris Tommy Mendonca Brahiam Maldonado Matt Fields Domingo Santana Michael Taylor Stephen Montoya Some multiple appearances on the list. I think Brandon Waring made it 4 times. Brandon Wood stuck out to me. He was a very highly ranked prospect. He had strike out rates of 28.5% in AA and 24.6%, 23.2% and 18.7% in AAA as he bounced back and forth between the majors and AAA. His walk rates in the minors were around 10%. Even though he was able to improve his strike out rate over time, it didn't traslate well in the majors for him and slugging percentages of 550-600 in the minors was 289 in 751 major league plate appearances. Carlos Peguero is still hanging on. Unlike Wood, his strikeout rate never improved below 30% as he moved up the ladder. He has 319 major league plate appearances with a strike out rate of 39.5%. Slugging in the minors of 463, 558, 562, 563 translates to 384 overall in the majors. Derek Norris is on the list. He was a major league all star last year. In AA, he had a strike out rate of 27.7% and an ISO of 237. You might dismiss this as a good comp since both the K rate and ISO are 20-25% below Walker's level. They are full season stats though and Walker will likely drop a little in both. There is also the context of the park and league. Norris is a valuable major league player. He followed his AA season with a AAA strike out rate of 16.7%. I am not sure what caused the change but he did move to the A's organization from the Nationals and perhaps the A's saw something in his swing that they fixed. That list isn't too encouraging. There is a flaw in my selection. Players with Walker's power don't always stay in AA a full season and therefore do not qualify on the leaderboards. Maybe I missed better players. I looked at it in reverse. I took the current top 10 batters according to strike out rate and looked at their performance in AA. I am hoping that they had similar high strike out rates in AA. Below is a list of the 10 and their strikeout rates this year and in AA. Player MLB%/AA% Souza (36.6% / 23.5%) Carter (35.9% / 20.1%) Davis (34.5% / 21.8%) Stanton (32.7% / 26.2%) Soler (32.2% / 19% ) Pederson (30.1% / 22.0%) Bryant (29.8% / 25.9%) Martinez (28.6% / 16.8%) LaRoche (27.6% / 20.1%) Springer (27.4% / 30.1%) George Springer is my hero. The other 9 strike out at a greater rate in the majors than they did in AA. I guess that shouldn't be surprising. Half of the players had better than a 50% increase in strike out rate. How about George? Like Derek Norris, he went to AAA and reduced his strike out rate In 266 plate appearance it was 24.6%. His overall rate in the major leagues is 30.8% and with that rate he has been a productive player with an OPS 792. What about Walker? Will he be a lifetime minor leaguer like Brandon Waring? Will he bounce back and forth like Brandon Wood? Can he stick like George Springer?

Catcher is the only spot where there isn't a clear solution this year or next. Extending Suzuki through 2016 guaranteed the Twins will have a deficit at that position. They needed to trade him last year for the best the market would return. Lucroy is a solution. The cost of acquisition is going to hurt. You don't get a catcher who was 4th in the MVP voting with 6.7 WAR the previous year without significant cost. They shouldn't expect to get him for a Walker or a Kepler. Don't waste time dreaming up deals where the Twins send several mid level prospects. It is going to take one player with very high upside and more. Lucroy is that good.