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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    With an entire rotation of pitchers on the disabled list it is probably clear to him that he is not in their plans. He had a chance but Smeltzer won that battle. Bring up one of the AA arms and put them in the St. Paul rotation.
  2. jorgenswest
    It might. They are guaranteed to face the best hitters in the first inning. In the 6th inning they might get the bottom half of the line up.
  3. jorgenswest
    We need pitching. What will it take to transform this pitching staffs to a contender? I think we need a starter at the top of our rotation to push Ryan and Gray down a slot. That will be expensive. It might cost Royce Lewis and a top pitching prospect. I think we need two bullpen arms to pair with Duran. It might be 3 by the deadline. It is reasonable to worry about Duran’s injury history. One needs to be a pitcher at the top of the pen. They need another to slot in with Duran in the late game and preferably a lefty. They need to acquire the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline. They probably also need to add the best reliever moved as well as a really good lefty. Is it worth the cost of our best young players to go for it? Do we settle for just competing for the central and moving only marginal prospects? I sometimes here that once you get to the playoffs it’s a crapshoot. I am not sure it is possible to lose at craps this many times in a row. I think we can predict how the playoffs will go without significant additions to the top of the rotation and pen. My interest is in hearing what you think. What will it take? Would you go for it? I am not interested in reading about what you think the front office will do or has done in the past. Let’s leave them out of it. There are plenty of posts where I can go see those thoughts.
  4. jorgenswest
    I agree. Archer’s performance was in the top half of pitching performances against the Yankees this year. Is above the median performance a reasonable expectation from a number 4 or 5 starter?
  5. jorgenswest
    You are correct. FIP or xFIP are not a good way to measure how well they have done the job. Their purpose is to project forward and foreshadow how well they might do it in the future.
  6. jorgenswest
    Bundy goes up against Cole tonight. What would a reasonable performance look like for a back end start against an ace. I looked at the game scores of Yankee opposing starters this year. Is a game score at the 25 percentile one that we should expect from a starter in the back end of our rotation. That game score was 40 to 41 and is owned by Berrios and Kikuchi. Berrios (41) pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 4 runs. Kikuchi pitched 3.1 innings and gave up 3 runs - 2 earned. Berrios had another 2nd quartile start a little closer to the median. He pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs. The median game score against the Yankees is 54. Garcia pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs. The average game score is 49.5. Zimmerman’s 50 was 6.1 innings and 4 runs given up. The Yankees do some damage. Cole Sands game score was 30. He out pitched Ohtani’s 28 from a week earlier. Archer was just above the median at 57. Where does Bundy need to fit? Should we hope for an average level performance and expect one at the 25th percentile? Neither is probably enough to be Cole. Almost all of Cole’s game scores are above the average start against the Yankees. Cole had a 43 on April 19.
  7. jorgenswest
    His ERA, FIP and xFIP have all been above 4 the last two years. This year the sample is small thus far but both his FIP and xFIP are worse than Duffey’s I think they are generally considered to be better predictors of future performance. I don’t think he will perform worse than Duffey but I am clouded by the small sample of performance. I think the lack of confidence in Pagán is entirely because he hasn’t pitched well since 2019. Even in 2019 his LOB% was 94.8. This year it is 94.7. That really isn’t a skill. His career rate is near the league rate this year of 75. Can we really count on him to have an LOB% of 95% going forward?
  8. jorgenswest
    I think it will work itself out. It shouldn’t be the motivation to make a deal. They should be very motivated to acquire pitching regardless of the 40 man status for players they trade away. It is hard to make those deals in any case since the acquiring team will be aware of 40 man status also. They will push to swap out a few for players that don’t have to be put on the 40.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am not sure he found anything other than maybe a return of a little confidence. He wasn’t as bad as he was at the start and he isn’t as good as he has been the last few week. It is mostly random variation due to sample. Look at his three hits last night. He has a lazy fly ball that lands for a double in front of Stanton. An infield hit where the third basemen tried to get the lead runner instead of going to first and a ground ball up the middle that avoided the shift. If he was 0-4 or 1-4 do we have the same perception today?
  10. jorgenswest
    Should Baldelli have kept him the sixth inning to face the middle of the Yankee line up a third time through? I was hoping it would be Jax in that spot.
  11. jorgenswest
    ERA doesn’t do a very good job of projecting future performance but influences are perception significantly. A few other FIPs Pagán 6.14 Bundy 4.61 Archer 4.94 FIP uses home run rate which does not stabilize early so xFIP might be better projectors as a guide to who the Twins should let go. xFIP Duffey 2.88 Thielbar 4.08 Pagán 3.56 Bundy 4.01 Archer 5.07 I am unsure when xERA stabilizes Duffey 6.71 Thielbar 3.07 Pagán 4.98 Bundy 3.82 Archer 5.52 Why are Duffey’s projectors all over the place? The sample is very small and highly influenced by a 41.7% HR/FB rate. It is highly unlikely that rate going forward will be near 41.7%. Last year it was 7.4% and the previous 5 years it was in the teens.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think the are 66-42 in one run games since 2019.
  13. jorgenswest
    If Arraez makes the play on the ball that rolled just under his glove and Duffey has a clean inning do you write the same article? Another thing that I wonder about is the 50/50. You never get to see the other side of the coin and the decision they didn’t make. Really Baldelli can only fail. Even in the game where he pulled Smeltzer after 4 and Cotton had a clean inning it is seen as a failure. We don’t get to see the side of the coin where Smeltzer pitches that inning and sees the top of the lineup the third time. We don’t have any idea how many failures have been avoided. Baldelli will continue to fail in hindsight if he only has one reliable option in the pen. When they need to get through 5 or 6 innings with this bullpen somebody is going to fail and Baldelli will have made the wrong decision. If Arraez gets that ball then it is about Megill instead or maybe Pagán. The problem is not fixed with the subtraction if Duffey. The only solution to this problem is one of addition and not subtraction. With a few good additions Baldelli’s decision making will improve.
  14. jorgenswest
    Should we be concerned about the average exit velocity? Should we be concerned about his performance last year?
  15. jorgenswest
    Who is next?
  16. jorgenswest
    Sano’s traditional slash stats were awful in a sample where they should not even be considered. Looking at data that would be more stable at 65 plate appearances… career low strike out rate best walk rate since 2015 career low out of zone swing rate average exit velocity above career average in spite of changes He wasn’t rewarded for his improvement in the zone yet. I do expect he will get an opportunity in the second half and do some damage.
  17. jorgenswest
    It sounds like the key is the be able to identify and develop young players. It hasn’t helped to make trades or sign free agents long term. Would you be more reluctant to trade prospects or offer a big 5 year deal to a pitcher? Would you do neither and rely on the pipeline?
  18. jorgenswest
    I did a similar look about 5 years ago. If the pitcher was young enough when they hit free agency it can work out or if they were elite it can work out. Beyond that signing pitcher at 30 or older past their age 32 season was not a good investment. Since then I have felt trades of prospects in seasons where teams are in contention is the better route. Have you ever looked at how trades work out when you get an expiring contract or maybe 1 more year of control? How often do those traded prospects become stars? How often does the acquired starter continue their success with their new team? I haven’t looked. It is harder to measure because you have to go way back so you can see what has happened to the prospect. Once you go back that far you wonder if the trade market is similar enough for comparison.
  19. jorgenswest
    They are rare. The need isn’t going to go away. Ober and Gray are both on their second IL stay. Neither should be counted on come playoffs. I don’t know when the first trade for a good starter will happen but the Twins need to be ready to make that deal.
  20. jorgenswest
    Ober to IL. The Twins have a rotation of TBA, Archer and Bundy to go up against the Yankees. They back that up with Smeltzer and TBA for the Rays. I am guessing Cole Sands pitches tomorrow and maybe Chi Chi Gonzalez for the TB series and then maybe back to Sands unless Ryan is ready by then. They might consider trading prospects for starting pitching.
  21. jorgenswest
    He may not be but he is 23 and finding success in the majors both with the bat and glove. Sellers are going to be looking for major league ready players. They will be offered players of similar age yet to play in the majors.
  22. jorgenswest
    To get pitching they will need to part with valuable pieces. It is encouraging to me that Celestino looks to be a valuable piece.
  23. jorgenswest
    On June 19 they go down to 13 pitchers. If his wrist is not troubling him call him up then. The playing time will work itself out.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would do the trade now rather than the hope of signing a free agent in the future.
  25. jorgenswest
    My guess is that an IL stay with rehab assignment would come first.
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