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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I hate to lose Luis Gil but two years later he is still a long way from the majors with a walk rate of 12% last year and only 13 innings of hi A going into his age 22 season. The options clock has started. The Yankees may harness the upside in that arm before options run out but I would bet on Cave ending his career with more career WAR than Gil. I have to believe Cave’s two years of solid play has to give him more value today and it would be possible to trade him for a pitcher similar to the one Gil was two years ago. A 19 year old with 46 walks in 65 innings and a history of arm trouble and a 100+ fastball.
  2. jorgenswest
    Marwin Gonzalez is essentially a corner OF as long as Sano and Donaldson are healthy. He is no longer a middle infield option short of emergency use. He also switch hits giving the ideal four OF grouping. That makes Cave is the 5th outfielder. If he does step forward the Twins and Marwin declines the Twins will have a decision to make about cutting loose that contract.
  3. jorgenswest
    One hidden and cautionary note about Jake Cave and his data from last year. His set of pitchers faced were among the weakest in baseball last year. As a group the pitchers he faced (weighted by PA) gave up an OPS of against .810. Cave’s OPS of .805 was below the average hitter facing those pitchers. In comparison Rosario’s group of pitchers gave up an aggregate .774 OPS against to the opposing hitters and Rosario was significantly better than average at .800. I would have been selling high on Cave this winter.
  4. jorgenswest
    Bert probably didn’t like the shift from a 4 man rotation to 5 man rotation that happened from about 1974 to 1985. This would have suited Ted Lyons well. Later in his career he only started once a week on Sundays. At age 42 he led the league in ERA starting 20 games and completing them all. It was essentially his last season as he joined the military in 1943. In 1940 at 40 he led the league in shut outs despite starting many fewer games. I do think we are seeing signs that the 5 man rotation is on the way out. We might land on a 6 man rotation with two stacked and pitching every three days. As a general guideline if a pitcher is over 60 pitches you don’t let them start the next inning. There would be many 4 inning start but league average or better pitchers would get to 5 more frequently throwing 70-75 pitches. I think more good pitchers will be throwing over 200 innings with the possibility of a less stressful load. One rule change that would help us to get rid of the 5 inning requirement to secure a win. The rule should at least allow a score keeper the discretion of giving a starter who went 4 good innings the win.
  5. jorgenswest
    Maeda is a good trade for the Twins. That said I think the Twins and Dodgers use a different bar for measuring impact pitching.
  6. jorgenswest
    Over four years I think Donaldson is a much better signing. Given the Twins need for starting pitching particularly in the playoffs I don’t think there was a higher ranked pitcher that was truly available. Wheeler was going to the Phillies if they Gabe him a good offer. Bumgarner the DBacks. Cole the Yankees and Strasburg was staying. They all got good enough offers from the team they targeted. It is possible that it is both a bad signing of four years at his age and health and also the only real hope of signing a free agent that would start game 1 of a playoff series. They didn’t acquire that top starter for 2020 and Ryu was the best starter truly available. They can’t get an A for the off-season without that top starter.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins payroll ranks will be above their revenue rank. I don’t expect more. They get high marks for raising payroll. They chose to spend a large portion of that money on Donaldson. Instead they could have signed Ryu and found an inexpensive 1B on a one year deal using the money they spent on Bailey. I think that a start from Ryu helps more in the playoffs than Donaldson so overall I would give them a B.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Padres selected Grant Little with that pick the Twins sold in the Hughes deal. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/grant-little/sa3008031/stats?position=OF
  9. jorgenswest
    Raley needs to be on the 40 and they may have needed to DFA him at some point this year. I hate to lose that pick. 67th pick trivia Kurt Suzuki has the 6th most career WAR (B-R) and 20.3 and could pass Jordan Zimmerman for 5th overall. The Twins drafted the 7th and 9th ranked players on the list in Roger Erickson (8.3 WAR) and Paul Abbott (4.6 WAR). They also drafted Dan Cey in this spot. Rick Reuschel, Ron Guidry and Wally Joyner are the best of this group and Paul Abbott is the last of the group with any kind of career. Since the first draft in 1965 there have been three with 30+ WAR, three others in the 20s and another three between 1 and 10 career WAR. Chances are the 67th pick never has an impact even as much as Paul Abbott in the majors but I still hate to lose the pick.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am concerned about what needs to be added here. I am expecting that they will give up add a 40 or maybe even 45 prospect and get in return an organizational minor leaguer to make it look like both sides added.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think the difference might be the deadline. I think the paperwork needs to be completed and to the league by the deadline. This deal wasn’t never completed. It wasn’t announced by the teams. The Red Sox didn’t like the medical and didn’t complete the deal. Clearly it would be best if teams and agents could keep all of this quiet until the trade is officially announced and completed.
  12. jorgenswest
    Graterol is definitely a health risk with a high upside. If there wasn’t a health risk it would take much more than Maeda to get him. At this point the Twins need to bet on the upside. They have the prospect capital to acquire starting pitching and have now shown their willingness to part with that capital.
  13. jorgenswest
    They made the right move a few days late.
  14. jorgenswest
    His performance last year was similar to 2018 in the context of the pitchers he faced. Batters against the pitchers he faced put up and OPS of .800 resulting in a DRC+ of 123. Even Nick Gordon had a DRC+ of 107 last year. Rooker had a 117 in 2018. BABIP last year was .417. The OPS last year looks great and encouraging. Taken in the context of the group of pitchers he faced and his BABIP leaves me wondering if there is much hope here. What would his DRC+ need to be at the major league level with his defensive limitations? I think he would need to be in the same 117-123 neighborhood or he will have a career somewhere in the range of Austin to Cron.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to look elsewhere for starting pitching. Maeda is not worth adding to this deal. Keep Graterol. Bet on his upside. Look to move Larnach or Kirilloff for pitching.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins were very public about moving Graterol to the bullpen. The Red Sox had to know what they were getting from both the Twins actions and the medical reports. I think we learned that Graterol's value is probably below that of Duran, Balazovic and even Thorpe. Relievers with a medical history and a high effort delivery are risky acquisitions but teams like Boston should be able to afford to take bets on that 103 MPH upside. If Graterol remains let's hope this doesn't change his relationship with the organization.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins were in the other end of a similar deal trading a good but not elite CF in Denard Span for a top pitching prospect. Span also had a friendly contract and control. There was concern about Meyer’s delivery and mechanics just as there are concerns about Graterol’s high effort delivery and shoulder. The team receiving the solid major leaguer is going to win these deals more often but when that prospect beats the odds and is a number 1 starter you lose big. The Twins needed a good starter. They traded Graterol at a relative high. How much is he worth at the trade deadline if he is shut down for his shoulder again? It could happen. I don’t know what other opportunities were presented to the Twins but this opportunity was short term. The Dodgers and Red Sox were going to get this deal done and there is no guarantee a better deal would present itself with just a week before spring training. I don’t think the Twins can take the next step if they are reluctant to trade prospects.
  18. jorgenswest
    I would have hoped they might get a little more for Graterol but maybe Maeda is better than I perceive. I am concerned about the transition to the AL but ultimately the Twins needed to give up a top prospect for starting pitching and landed on this deal. I certainly advocated for making a deal. I can’t argue now that they should have done better. It is more likely that better never comes and no deal is ever made.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think you are right. Though 5/60 seems like a reasonable progression in the Nola and Martinez contracts the Twins will need to go higher. There is a number that Berrios will accept to get some security in case of injury and the Twins can get two more years. The 30 million in arb seems right. I had the Twins starting with another 30 but maybe it will take 40 or 45.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would offer 5/60 and be willing to go more. They can get this done. There is a number that will get this done. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. By the time he is a free agent they might have to pay 50 million for those last two years and the qualifying offer might be over 20 in three years. Pay up now.
  21. jorgenswest
    I would prefer that the Twins devote the time to the young pitchers. One of Chacin or Bailey helps. Two likely mediocre veteran pitchers takes away opportunity in both spring and during the regular season from Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer. I would much rather invest those backend starts on two of that trio and I don’t trust that Chacin or Bailey will be released if they are pitching at a mediocre level. Last year Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer started 13 games and the Twins went 8-5. Two of Dobnak’s were an opener but Thorpe or Smeltzer were the primary those two games where they went 1-1. Why not devote 14-16 starts to this trio before Pineda returns? Is there an opt out date on this deal? If that opt out date is early in the season then I really don’t like the deal. The Twins will be too motivated to roster him over a younger pitcher. Even if he is simply insurance against losing a pitcher in the spring that insurance comes at the cost of giving him valuable spring innings where he is essentially auditioning for other teams. If the opt out date is May 15 or later then the insurance makes sense. Keep him the minors as long as everyone is healthy and give a shot to the young pitchers.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think the downside is giving him 8-10 starts to find out he is mediocre and not giving that opportunity to Thorpe or Dobnak. It is the same downside with Bailey. We needed one of those guys but we I don’t think they need two. Would Walker have been a better choice? Maybe. He had xFIP- of 100 his last two healthy seasons of pitching. I guess the hope would be a complete recovery where he returns to the league average pitcher he was in 16-17.
  23. jorgenswest
    The key is improvement from Arraez and Polanco. By every measure Arraez was a poor 2B in a partial season. He now has the job full time. He needs to be a lot better or there are going to many extended innings and shorter starts. I am hoping Polanco’s leg trouble caused his drop from below average to poor last year and he can approach below average with healthier legs. Donaldson may help here a little but it is his weaker arm that keeps him from playing deep cutting down his range. The weak arm compounded with the leg issue that led to too many balls in play turning into base runners. Last year the Twins converted 69% of balls in play into outs. That was new league bottom. At the top the Astros and Dodgers were at 73%. I don’t care how players do individually in the metrics but as a team they must do a much better job of converting balls in play into outs. Better coverage from Arraez and Polanco will be needed to make that happen.
  24. jorgenswest
    I like the off-season plan to give them the opportunity over an older back end option. It really seems ideal. Two pitchers get 8 or so starts to win one spot when it narrows to one opportunity of likely 8 more starts. By the all star break they would have around 25 starts from their hope for the near future. Even if they all struggle I think this part of the plan is solid and deserves a solid grade. In that case by the all star break They should have a good indication on whether or not to pursue a Robbie Ray rental type at the deadline.
  25. jorgenswest
    Moderators you may need to delete as I am taking this from prospects and Donaldson to the equal playing time discussion but I can't start a new discussion in this forum On the question... Eddie is a better hitter. Using OPS in one season to project the next season doesn't correlate nearly as high as some other measures. One in particular is BP's DRC+. In this measure Cave and Rosario are not in the same realm. Eddie was 109 (112 last year) and Cave 89 (93 last year). The Twins need to plan in rest but in every match up the staff (on field and analytic) must answer the question who is more likely to be successful today. I think in most match ups the answer is going to be Rosario over Cave.
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