Elliot

Good move. I am happy. Unless something very significant has happened to his ankle, I am really not worried about $36M/yr for his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons. The backend of the contract now covers his ages 31 thru 33. Bad things can take place, but I like the odds a lot better than the other 3 SS being anything but a financial drain for the last half of their contracts in their upper 30’s. I know. $25/M/ year can sooth a lot of hurt feelings, but I wonder how much thought they give to playing out the last 4 or 5 years of their careers like Miguel Cabrera; a financial drain with no way to contribute. Albert Pujols was the same story, but will be remembered for his storybook final month. Overall, I think it is the rare win/win in MLB contracts. Much like Buxton. Maybe it is time to give this FO some credit.

"One-year deals are an admission of fault." I think a better definition is that they are an admission of need. As hard as it is to believe, if everyone is healthy the Twins have a roster crunch problem rather than a need for additional FA's. They appear set at C for a few years. 1B should belong to a healthy productive Kiriloff, backed up by Arraez and Gallo. 2B is Polanco with Arraez and Gordon in reserve.; 3B is Miranda's to lose and he will be given a full year to prove it. Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer back him up. Farmer starts the year at SS, but everyone is hoping for that to become Lewis by midyear. The outfield will be Buxton flanked by Kepler and Larnach. Gallo, Celestino, Gordon, and Garlick open the year as reserves. Wallner is ready as well. DH will be filled primarily by Gallo and Arraez, In addition, the AFL gave us a glimpse of what might soon be with Julien and Martin. Martin by the way is my pick to be the Twins surprise success story at the MLB level. Lee could appear at the major league level soon as well. These 3 all have questions concerning their future defensive homes, but have come up as middle infielders and appear to have the athletic ability to be decent defenders. Their defensive questions are much different than those of Rooker and other past prospects. I know that the assumption of health is risky, but the fact is, if healthy these players all have legitimate abilities to become solid MLB players, in some cases much more. This is where 1 year deals come in. The Gallo deal is the type that fits the needs of the team at this time. A multi-year FA contract could force Enlow type decisions with some of those mentioned above. If health and performance of the current young players is positive, then Gallo can be allowed to walk at year's end, or released/traded during the year.

Arguing over who has the best crystal ball is pointless. He has faced injury issues in the past, a fact that is reflected in the contract agreed upon. Both sides are protected. I am not sure if those critical of Buxton are suggesting he be cut, released, traded, or just publicly criticized since there really are no suggestions offered. I am sure Buxton, Rocco, FO, and most fans would love to see him healthy and productive for a full season. Pencil him in CF and the middle of the order and let it play out. History cautions the team to have a good backup plan in place, but it also shows that no one on the team has more “transcendent player” potential than Byron Buxton. Thank you Ted for sharing a bit of hope and optimism.

I think that there is way too much emphasis on the Gallo or Kepler comparison. True, they are similar in that they can play gold glove level RF and serve as a short term answer in CF. They are also both LH hitters with some past history that the team would like to recreate, As veteran players, both offer some certainty, unlike the hope/potential of Kiriloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Rather than the Gallo/Kepler debate I believe that the focus should be on Gallo as a 1 year $11M insurance policy. If Larnach is not healthy, or needs more time in the minors, Gallo can be the LF. Same is true for Wallner, who likely needs more AAA time in any case. The FO has dropped hints about Gallo being a potential gold glover at 1B. If Kiriloff cannot come back or needs time to get his swing back at AAA, we have a 1B in Gallo. If injuries continue to be a problem for Arraez and/or Polanco, or if one is traded, there may be AB's available at DH (with Arraez fitting in at 2B). If 2022 was not an illusion in terms of Gordon's production, he will still get AB's as an OF or 2B. What I am trying to say is that no one has to be traded, and certainly no one has to be dumped for less than market value. If I am not mistaken Larnach, Kiriloff, and Wallner all have options remaining and can begin the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy and producing come May or June, a decision can be made at that time. Any one of the players who are part of this ongoing discussion can be traded. If 2022 taught us anything it should be that the "If" in "if everyone is healthy" is a very important unknown. Worst case, Gallo is washed up and the Twins end up cutting him and they are out $11M with no future commitments.

Catcher, SS, and CF are the three positions where teams are most likely to sacrifice offense in favor of defense. This isn't because they don't want good offensive players there, it is simply because the demand for top notch two way players at those positions far outstrips the supply. To make matters worse, the shelf life is short, especially for catchers, shortstops, and Byron Buxton. The almost inevitable move to 3B (for shortstops) and 1B or DH (for catchers) leaves teams greatly overpaying for players at less crucial positions on long term contracts later in their careers. The point of the above is simply to say that you should never discount the value of defense first players at these positions. An above average defensive player at one of these crucial spots is very valuable, with the added benefit that the investment is generally lower and shorter term. My guess is that they were not dumping Rortvedt, but that the Yankees insisted on him to make the trade work, because they saw value. If Cardenas, or one of the other recent draft choices makes to the bigs as a defense first catcher it should be seen as a success rather than some level of failure that you are forced to live with. If the opportunity arises to draft the next Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, or Adley Rutschman, by all means jump on it. But recognize that in exchange for probably 5-7 years of high end production (rookie/arb years and first few years of a long term), you will probably end up with an extremely overpriced 1B/DH for 4 o 5 years.

Does anyone know the story on Dalton Shuffield? Looks like he was a 10th round pick, but rather than the 4 middle infielders drafted above him, he is the one who has been fast tracked to AAA in his first year. I haven’t heard any buzz about him.

Pedroia is is a little guy with a big guy swing that sacrifices contact for power. Although the comparison to Carew is way premature, the similarities in style are real. Carew never wavered in his style or general approach. I hope Arraez follows the same approach. There may be occasional years of double digit home runs, but his value is in high average/high OBP and gap power. If he can improve on the defensive side he can provide value for years to come. The Carew comparison may fit here as well. His value would certainly have been higher as a longtime 2nd baseman rather than making an early shift to first. I realize that was expedited by a knee injury, however the knee injury may have been partly to blame on poor footwork on turning the double play.

There are a number of ways of being injury prone. Some players don’t take care of their bodies, carry too much weight, and end up with repeating injuries linked with that condition. Others have bodies that injure easily. Lots of muscle pulls and soft tissue problems. Some endure the same injuries over and over. An obvious weak spot in their body. Still others play with a style that invites injuries. I think that Buxton appears to fit best in the last category. Fortunately, it is probably the most “fixable” of the injury prone situations. Experience may teach him when to back off and when to go for it. Maybe not. If not, he will eventually end up with the recurring Injuries such as concussions or shoulder injuries. I seem to recall Paul Molitor being injury prone early on in his career. He ended up as a heathy reliable performer, playing into his 40’s and performing at a high level, albeit as a DH. My hope is that Buxton figures it out. When healthy, he is one of the most exciting and valuable players in the game.

I am not an anti Terry Ryan person. I believe he was, and still is, a phenomenal judge of talent and a great scout who basically built the team we are now celebrating. The one huge mistake that I believe he made was the one or two year draft emphasis on college relief pitchers.who threw in the upper 90's; part of the mph infatuation that is hopefully being phased out. A real waste of a half dozen or so relatively high draft choices. I think Jake Reed is the only one left with the organization. I believe the rest are out of baseball. The truth of the matter regarding bullpen construction is that the best relievers are failed starters. They are starters initially because that is where the best pitchers are used. Some make the transition from starter to reliever in the minors; others end up in the pen as a way of making the MLB roster. Often times the key to the transition is to eliminate pitches that are not strong points and concentrate on strengths. With that comes the apparent downside of problems the second or third time thru the order with only a two pitch mix. The evolution of MLB staffs has seen the reduction of starters who throw 200+ innings per year and the increase in multi-inning relievers. Of those listed as break out candidates I would keep a close eye on Romero and Alcala.

Sano started as a shortstop and then moved to third. I am probably in the minority on this view, but i feel he could have been a good right-fielder if the transition had been handled properly rather than throwing him out there with little on no preparation. Obviously he has some defensive skills. First base is the easiest position on the diamond to play adequately. I don't think there is any question that he can perform at the average level. The question is whether or not he can become an above average to gold glove performer; as was the case with Albert Pujols who had a similar progression. Just an additional observation. It is a nice story that Miguel said that Donaldson was the only player he wold have moved to 1B for, but the reality is he would have moved if the team told him to, regardless of who was taking over at third.

Hyperbole might be a little strong, but unbridled optimism may fit. No doubt 2019 was an impressive year, especially for solo home runs. How much of that was aided by the juiced ball is unclear, but it certainly had some impact. My bigger concern is the likelihood of not reaching optimistic projections for a number of the key components, for the following reasons: Age - Cruz turning 40, Donaldson starting a 4 or 5 yr contract at an age where position players normally begin dropping off. Likelihood of Injury - Cruz, Sano, Buxton Sophomore Jinx/Outlier Season - Arreaz, Garver That being said, there are some reasons for being optimistic for improvement. A healthy season from Sano and Buxton could be a sight to behold. 30+ home-runs and 100+ RBI's was a disappointing year for Rosario. What does a good year look like? Polanco and Kepler seem to be establishing themselves as legitimate stars. There are young players who, with an opportunity (injury) could force their way in. My optimistic take: The "Bomba Squad" vanishes, with home-runs dropping off by 20%; still leaving them with a healthy 240 to 250 home-runs. Situational hitting improves as does plate discipline; partly influenced by Donaldson. Runs scored increase, as does run distribution; i.e. fewer blowouts with 5 or 6 home-runs, but more games where a big hit at the right time makes the difference. So if you a thinking adding Donaldson means a new home-run record, eclipsing the 307 from last year, prepare to be disappointed. If you are looking for an exciting team that has a better chance of competing in the fall, I hope you will be satisfied.

There seems to be an incredible range of views on Sano's defensive abilities. Some claim that with some effort he can be transformed into an average to above average third baseman. Others claim that he is so inept that a move to right field caused him to get hurt sliding into second base; or, as the above states, he in unable to catch a throw at first. I have been skeptical of Sano the third baseman since I first saw him play there in his rookie year. That does not mean he is inept. He has some surprising skill's, such as the ability to charge slow rollers and make off balance throws. He also handles balls hit directly at him at least at an average level. He struggles with reaction time and range, something that is not at all unexpected with a man of his size and build. That said, I would never compare him to David Ortiz defensively. Ortiz never played any position other than 1B defensively as a pro, and never played it at any level other than badly.As stated by at least one previous poster, rather than Ortiz, the more accurate comparisons would be Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, others who played third base and outfield prior to a move to first and eventually DH.

We have not seen Polanco at 3rd. May be because management has, and it isn’t a pretty picture. Arraez has played a few innings there and he seemed to hold his own. That would allow a Polanco move to 2nd; a move which worked out quite well with Dozier. That would allow the search to center on a defensive shortstop. If the Twins are serious about improving their infield defense, moving Sano to first is a good first step. However; an infield defense centered around a shortstop that is at or near the bottom of just about every means of measuring is not a good plan.

“ In 2017, an unknown Japanese player made his journey across the Pacific in search of the elusive MLB contract” I don’t think it is accurate to describe Ohtani as an unknown. Much like Ricky Rubio in basketball, he had been discussed and fantasized over since his mid teens. Oscar Colas is, at least to me, a complete unknown. It seems unusual to have one of the best prospects to emerge from Cuba playing in Japan. Normally Cuba is very protective of their best players, especially in their younger years. I appreciate Aerodeliria's insight regarding the Japanese minor leagues; something I was not aware of. All things considered it seems as if Colas is more of a candidate for the Twins top 20 Prospect list than a spot on the major league team; either as a pitcher or an everyday player. That doesn’t mean he is not someone to pursue since we are apparently “flush with cash”; just keep things in perspective and expectations within reason.

I have never been a fan of defensive metrics, relying more on the eye test than numbers.However; in this case, both methods agree. The Twins as currently constructed have three starting infielders who are well below average defensively and an open spot at first. One of those three should end up at first rather than any thought of signing a first baseman in free agency. Sano is probably the most obvious choice as his physical build is working against him remaining at third, and there is no other option for him other than DH. It is unknown to any of us whether or not Polanco or Arraez can handle third, at least as well as Sano has been doing. My personal preference would be to move Polanco to 3rd and sign Iglesias to fill SS for a year. Although I am not in favor of long term deals for aging stars, I could get a bit excited over Josh Donaldson; partly as an offensive addition, but primarily as a defensive upgrade. I definitely don't feel the same towards a potential Bryant deal. It would certainly be nice if Lewis actually turns out to be a legitimate SS or even solid 3rd baseman both offensively and defensively. Lots of rambling, but I definitely agree that infield defense should be a primary focus throughout the offseason.

Jacoby Ellsbury

I am firmly in the camp of being competitive year to year. I consider a 101 win season a success. A championship is great, but it cannot be bought or guaranteed. It takes a combination of a good team and, to some extent, good luck. Buxton’s and Cron’s injuries and Pineda’s foolishness fall in the “bad luck” category. The unexpected emergence of Arraez is good fortune. Give me a team that year in and year out is very competitive, and with the right breaks is capable of going a long way, and I am a happy fan. Winning a World Series is great, but it does not buy a pass from expectations in the subsequent years. I know others view this differently and are all in for a championship. I just doubt that if that happens they would be content if the price was a few years of non-competitive teams. Note that I said if. It doesn’t have to be that way.

I have a running list of the top 20 FA from prior years that includes who signed them, for how much, and how long. I always review it as teams move into the FA frenzy. In general, it appears that the yearly tally is about 80% of the contracts fall into the regrettable or forgettable category. This appears to be especially true for pitchers with long term deals. Since 5 years seems to be the length many commenters want to use for spending “billionaires” money; I thought looking back at the 2015 FA class might be enlightening. Here they are in descending order of rank, with yrs/avg salary Pitchers: Greinke (6/34) Price (7/31) Cueto (6/22) Kazmir (3/16) Leake (6/16) Lackey (2/16) Chen (5/16) Zimmerman (5/22) Samardzija (5/18). An interesting group not unlike this year’s, with some big names in their prime; a few injury prone but talented arms, some high ceiling potential, and a few playoff tested veterans that would be good for any staff. Non-Pitchers: (Just the top 5) Heyward (8/23) J Upton (6/22) Cespedes (3/25) Gordon (4/18) Davis (7/23). In retrospect, a disaster. Definitely not what it looked like at the time. Appeared to be relatively young players in their prime. 2015 was not an outlier. There were worse years such as 2017 (remember the clamoring for Darvish, Arietta, and Cobb), and better (maybe 2018 but there has to be a touch of buyers remorse already with Machado and Harper). Overall, a cautionary tale. They are not as good as we make them out to be.

The Twins had a good starting rotation throughout 3/4 of the year in 2019. The rotation we saw in the playoffs was a shadow of the one that contributed to a 101 win season. Pineda, at the time the functional ace, was suspended. Berrios, the de facto ace, had run out of gas and was nowhere near the pitcher he had been earlier. Perez had a good run early but had been overexposed. Gibson was sick for almost the entire year, including spring training, but still managed to contribute. I have confidence in the FO. They have shown an ability find quality in the best, but most difficult manner. Rather than chasing big names and throwing $ at past performance, they acquired Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez without mortgaging the future in terms of either money or prospects. I believe that prior to Spring Training they will bring in another arm to fill a role in the rotation w/o giving up significant prospects or spending $20M/yr for 4 or 5 yrs. I am however intrigued with spending bigger $ for a longer period of time for a very good 2 way 3rd baseman.

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr. How do they compete? Berrios becomes an ace, another young pitcher steps up to fill a spot, and Royce Lewis becomes the 3rd baseman. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are being driven more and more by young players coming up through the system.

Your infielders all seem to be first basemen. My choice is an infielder that improves the defense, which means first and foremost, getting Sano off third base. I would actually prefer moving both Polanco and Sano to new positions and strengthening SS and 3rd defensively. Those are the type of options I was hoping to see. Unless I am misunderstanding the process and you are planning on looking at each position individually (2nd, SS, and 3rd still to come), I would do a hard pass on all of the options. Sano, Marwin, and the young guys (Railey, Rooker, ...) provide plenty of internal options.

Your infielders all seem to be first basemen. My choice is an infielder that improves the defense, which means first and foremost, getting Sano off third base. I would actually prefer moving both Polanco and Sano to new positions and strengthening SS and 3rd defensively. Those are the type of options I was hoping to see. Unless I am misunderstanding the process and you are planning on looking at each position individually (2nd, SS, and 3rd still to come), I would do a hard pass on all of the options. Sano, Marwin, and the young guys (Railey, Rooker, ...) provide plenty of internal options.

If the Twins are going to be legitimate contenders it will be because Berrios and Odorizzi step forward. That is where the ace and number 2 come from. I have as much confidence in them taking the next step as I do in Wheeler becoming dominant for a full season. I would be happy with Bumgarner or Keuchel, or maybe even Ryu, as a veteran lefty in the rotation. That role is not one that requires a 4 or 5 year commitment that will cause problems with keeping the core together in a few years. If Madbum is open to a 2 or 3 yr deal, heavily front loaded, then I say go for it. If not, wish him well and move on.