nclahammer
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nclahammer reacted to IndianaTwin for a blog entry, Is this heaven? No, it’s the all-time baseball movie lineup
Hey, it’s the Christmas season and there’s no real baseball on TV. Nor is there any real baseball news, and I don’t want to discuss one more time whether the Twins are in rebuild or retool mode.
But it’s a wonderful life, and there are movies to watch. On a recent road trip with my son, we tried to come up with the starting lineup on the All-Time Baseball Movie team. These are the fictional guys. It would be too easy to insert Lou Gehrig from Pride of the Yankees and Babe Ruth from any number of films.
Here’s what we’ve got. Add your comments and rebuttals below.
Leading off and playing center field, we have to go with the speedster Willie Mays Hayes from Major League. The original version, not Major League II, III or whatever they’re up to by now. When you hit like Mays and run like Hayes, you gotta be in the lineup. Hayes is a tough call in center over Kelly Leake from Bad News Bears and Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez from The Sandlot, but you clearly gotta keep the latter on the roster as a pinch runner.
Batting second and playing left field will be Shoeless Joe. I know that I said this is fictional and Joe Jackson was real, but the movie is clearly a fantasy, and we’re talking about perhaps the best-known character in the genre. With that line drive back through the box off Ray, he’s clearly adept at going with the pitch, a skill we’re looking for in our No. 2 hitter.
Batting third, where we want one of our best hitters, we have to go with The Natural, Roy Hobbs. He plays rightfield and has the lineup’s best walk-up music. If you don’t believe that, just stay after any minor league game for the fireworks show and you’ll get a listen.
It’s not intentional to have worked our way around the outfield with top three spots in the order, but it came out that way. We’re kinda going to continue that by finding a way to get Major Leaguer Pedro Cerrano’s bat in the lineup, which we’ll do in the cleanup spot as the DH. Movies don’t tend to have the DH in a starring role, but Jobu hits the fastball very much. Oh, and don’t steal his rum.
Catcher is tough. Some of the genre’s best characters are behind the plate. I know I’m going to get flack for not choosing Crash Davis from Bull Durham, but the dude’s a career minor league. Stay tuned, I’ve got a spot for him. Similarly, Jake Taylor from Major League is a gamer, a masterful bunter and a great handler of a pitching staff. And then there’s Hamilton Porter from The Sandlot. I don’t think I can go with him, but we need him on the bench – there can’t be a better bench jockey and trash talker in the league.
But all those pale compare to the one who truly was in a League of her (Their) Own, Dottie Hinson. She’ll woman the backstop and bat fifth.
Following her in the lineup and batting sixth is her teammate. Playing second base, we have the window-breaking slugger, Marla Hooch.
First base is a hitter’s spot, but it’s actually a little weak in the movies. Granted, Clu Heywood leads the Major League in most offensive categories, including nose hair, but we only want the good guys on our team, so we can’t use him. Similarly, Mr. 3000 is just such a bad movie that I’m not going to use Stan Ross. That leaves us with another aging slugger, back from Japan, Mr. Baseball Jack Eliot, and he’ll bat seventh.
Third base is another sparse one. The potentially obvious choice here is Roger Dorn, but he pretty much showed himself a clubhouse cancer throughout Major League, so we’ll have to pass. Instead, we’ll go with our third pick from League of Their Own, Doris Murphy. She can rub teammates the wrong way, as witnessed by her taking on Kit Hinson after a rough game, but she’s clearly a gamer, the kind of player who want as a spark batting near the bottom of the lineup at No. 8.
Finally, we need a shortstop. Amazingly with such a glamour position, I couldn’t come up with a good standout shortstop from a baseball movie. I mean, with his way of coaching up teammates, it seems likely that “The Jet” Rodriguez could pull out his inner Cesar Tovar and play there, but I don’t think he actually does in the movie.
But I’ve got an unnamed sleeper. Unnamed in that I couldn’t remember his name ever being used in the movie. But you need defense up the middle, and with that final play to come in and bare hand the tipped ball to preserve the perfecto at the end of For Love of the Game, this unnamed guy will play short and bat ninth.
By contrast, though it may seem that the lineup is a bit weak at the bottom, we’ve got a loaded rotation. He is, by definition, a Rookie (of the Year), but with the bionic arm, Henry Rowengartner is in the mix. I like to work young guys in slowly, so I’m going to start him at No. 5 in the rotation.
And speaking of youth, we’ll have another youngster in the No. 4 spot, Amanda Wurlitzer from the Bad News Bears. Despite her youth, she does have championship experience, leading the Bears to the title game. At No. 3, we’ll go with Bingo Long from his Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings. He’s based on Satchel Paige, so that’s impressive.
Picking between the top two spots was tough, but I had to go with experience. I like Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh’s million dollar arm in Bull Durham, but I don’t want someone with a five-cent head getting the start on Opening Day, so he’ll have to wait for game two.
Which means that our Opening Day starter will be Billy Chapel from For Love of the Game. When you wrap up your Hall of Fame career with a perfect game and demonstrate that “the cathedral that is Yankee Stadium belongs to a Chapel,” you’ve shown you have the moxie to get the Opening Day start.
There’s several noteworthy candidates to fill out the staff while pitching out of the bullpen, including Kit Hinson from League of the Their and Eddie Harris from Major League, but we know that it will be the Wild Thing, Ricky Vaughn from Major League, marching out of the bullpen to close games after a stellar career in the California Penal League. The team’s top pitching prospect is the newly signed Rigo (“Peanut Boy”) Sanchez from Trouble with the Curve.
So there’s the roster. But before we get away, we have to recognize that it takes more than players to run a team. You need a coaching staff, for example, and baseball movies have given us a few. Because they formed the best manager/coach duo, our team will be led by Pop Fisher and Red Blow from The Natural. There are other noteworthy coach/managers who can fill out the coaching staff, namely Frank Perry (For Love of the Game), Jimmy Dugan (League of Their Own) and Lou Brown (Major League). I’m big on character, so it’s against my better judgment, but I did save a spot for Morris Buttermaker from the Bad News Bears. Also in the dugout will be young Bobby Savoy (The Natural) as our batboy.
Billy Heywood from Little Big League was a choice for the coaching staff, but I realized that he has to be the team owner, since several other of the team owners portrayed are dirtbags. Think of Rachel Phelps from Major League and The Judge from The Natural. Heywood’s more seasoned ownership partners include Gary Wheeler (For Love of the Game) and candy bar mogul Walter Harvey (League of Their Own).
Also in the team’s administration is GM Ira Lowenstein (League of Their Own). He oversees a scouting staff that includes Gus Lobel (Trouble with the Curve) and Ernie Capadino (A League of Their Own). The latter is known for his skill in negotiating contracts, as demonstrated in signing the Hinson sisters. For astutely observing how much better Pete Taylor has been playing since his parents came to visit, Pete Klein (Trouble with the Curve) will head the team’s analytics department. Heading the scouting staff, and likely working her way up to GM on her own, is Mickey Lobel from Trouble with the Curve.
With such a varied range of experience on our team, there are bound to be injuries, and we’ve got the best possible medical staff in place. Heading the group is Doc Archibald (Moonlight) Graham from Field of Dreams. Assisting him, with specializations in providing CPR and overseeing the pool at the training facility, is Wendy Peffercorn from The Sandlot.
A team like this needs a place to play, and fortunately they have stadium architect extraordinaire Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams). As noted above, I do have a backup plan for Crash Davis. He’ll assist Ray as groundskeeper, with particular expertise in managing the irrigation system. Also of note in game day management is Frank Drummond (Naked Gun), who will serve as stadium security. He’s also been known to fill in for Enrico Polazzo in singing the National Anthem.
A team like this certainly deserves media coverage. Again, there’s lots to choose from in the broadcasting department, since using an announcer is often part of what helps the plot flow in sports movies. They’re playing themselves, so our rules keep us from naming John Gordon (Little Big League), Vin Scully (For Love of the Game) and Curt Gowdy, Jim Palmer, Tim McCarver, Mel Allen, Dick Enberg and Dick Vitale, all from Naked Gun. But even if that rule didn’t apply, the broadcasting gig would still have to go to Harry Doyle from Major League.
And finally, we need someone to wax eloquent and write Roger Angell-like essays. The clear choice for that would be Terrance Mann.
So, how’d I do? Who’d I miss?
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
While we have no baseball right now because of the league locking out its players, there’s still minor league prospects to dream on. 2021 provided us a full season of minor league action and the Twins saw a ton of movement from their biggest names.
It was certainly tough to see the injuries mount this season, but that can likely be tied to the non-traditional 2020 and having to get back into a demanding flow. The last update to the top 15 in this space came in June, prior to the Major League Baseball draft, so now feels like a good time to refresh the list.
Previous rankings can be found below. Let’s get into it:
2016 Top 15 Prospects 2017 Top 15 Prospects 2018 Top 15 Prospects 2019 Top 15 Prospects 2020 Top 15 Prospects 2021 Top 15 Prospects 15. Cole Sands RHP
Sliding Sands back a spot here has nothing to do with him, and everything to do with additions before him. He posted a 2.46 ERA in 80.1 IP all at the Double-A level in 2021. The strikeouts are there and while the walk rate was up, he still worked around damage. Some time on the IL wasn’t a great thing, but he could be an option for Minnesota soon.
14. Matt Wallner OF
I’m pretty bullish on Wallner being a better version of Brent Rooker. His .854 OPS at High-A was a professional best this season, and he raked for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League. He has massive arm strength and should be fine in a corner spot. He’s going to hit for power, and I think the on-base abilities are there too.
13. Noah Miller INF
Taken 36th overall by the Twins, Miller’s brother Owen is a big leaguer. Noah is expected to be a better all-around prospect and has plenty of speed on his own. I think he’s got a pretty good shot to stick in the middle of the infield, and it’ll be exciting to see him on the field in 2022.
12. Blayne Enlow RHP
Throwing just 14.2 innings this year, Enlow was put on the shelf early and then underwent Tommy John surgery. He was added to the 40-man roster protecting him from a Rule 5 selection. He’s still one of my favorite breakout prospects, but he won’t be healthy to start 2022.
11. Josh Winder RHP
After dominating Double-A, Winder earned a pretty quick promotion to Triple-A. He was just ok in his four starts at St. Paul, but there’s no reason to believe this isn’t a talented arm. He’s consistently had strong strikeout stuff and avoided free passes. Winder was bit most by the longball for the Saints. He did experience a trip to the IL but should be healthy coming into 2022.
10. Keoni Cavaco INF
In 60 games for Low-A Fort Myers Cavaco did little to impress. That said, he’s still just 20 years old and it was great to see him advance beyond the complex league. He’s still filling out form a body standpoint, and 2022 will be an important year for his development.
9. Chase Petty RHP
Selected as the 26th overall pick in the 2021 Major League Baseball draft, Petty was seen as a great value selection given his ability to reach triple-digits on the mound. He’s still got a good amount of refinement to undergo, but this is a great arm for Minnesota to mold.
8. Matt Canterino RHP
Spending a good amount of time on the IL this year, Canterino certainly wanted to get in more than 23 innings. The work he did do was dominant, however. A 0.78 ERA and 45/4 K/BB is plenty indicative of him needing the challenge of at least Double-A to start 2022.
7. Simeon Woods-Richardson RHP
One piece of the return for Jose Berrios, Woods-Richardson pitched just eight innings for the Twins at Double-A. After playing with Team USA in the Olympics, he needed a good amount of time to ramp back up. The strikeout numbers are exciting, but he does have command issues to work through. Still, this is a top-100 prospect that should be fun to watch in 2022.
6. Jhoan Duran RHP
After being among the best Twins pitching prospects coming into 2021, Duran took a slight step backwards. He was injured for a good part of the season and contributed just 16 innings. The high strikeouts were combined with too many walks. The velocity is certainly there, but he could wind up being a reliever too. 2022 will be a big season for him.
5. Joe Ryan RHP
Acquired in exchange for Nelson Cruz, Ryan wound up being among the best things to happen for the Twins last season. After pitching for Team USA, Ryan made five starts at the big league level. His 3.43 FIP was better than the 4.05 ERA, but a 30/5 K/BB is beyond impressive for a guy who doesn’t have dominant velocity. How Ryan adapts to more tape on him in year two is going to be intriguing.
4. Jose Miranda IF
No player in the Twins system had a better year than Miranda. He tallied a .973 OPS across Double and Triple-A while blast 30 homers. He played all over the infield and it’s clear the bat is ready for his next challenge. I’m not sure where he fits for Minnesota yet, and it may not be Opening Day, but he’s coming and soon.
3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
Starting 20 games for Double-A Wichita, Balazovic turned in 3.62 ERA with a 9.5 K/9. He looked every bit the pat of an ace at times while going through growing pains as well. He’ll need a clean bill of health and complete season in 2022, but he’s very close.
2. Austin Martin SS/OF
The headlining return for Jose Berrios, Martin is a very similar player to Minnesota’s top prospect Royce Lewis. Playing shortstop but potentially an outfielder, Martin owned a .779 OPS at Double-A Wichita. He hasn’t really hit for any power, but that should come. The athleticism is strong, and the speed is there as well.
1. Royce Lewis SS/OF
Putting him back on top of the prospect rankings, Lewis missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL. He’ll return to the field healthy in 2022 and looking to distance himself from a 2019 that left production to be desired. Lewis’ bat has flashed plenty, and he’s looked comfortable at both short and in the outfield. A quick rise to the big leagues may be in the cards.
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nclahammer reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Post Lock out Moves: Potential Twins Trades
There are relatively few guarantees in baseball, and even less when it comes to what a new CBA will look like. Let's take a look at a few potential additions, and how it can impact the Twins (and other clubs). Today I want to talk about one potentially significant change.
Salary Floor
Both sides have spoken about a potential salary floor in some form or fashion. When both sides reference the possibility of something then it is only a matter of the details. It WILL be in the new CBA. How will that impact teams? or better yet how can some teams leverage this to their advantage? Lets assume a $100M floor for simplicity sake.
This would mean there is a TON of money that will HAVE to be spent. If you MUST spend it, you can do 1 of 3 things. #1 spend big on top tier players. Of course there are relatively few top tier players left to spend money on. #2 overpay average players, which is just silly. #3 take on bad contracts.
Lets take a look at a strategy behind #3. First lets identify teams that A) already have very high salaries which could be looking for some relief. B.) Still want to add a big piece or two, and C) have underperforming big salaries they want to dump. D) are in "Win Now" mode. The strategy here is to spend the money you are forced to by taking on bad contracts in exchange for quality prospects. Here are 3 of the top 4 teams in committed salaries for 2021. Each of these teams meet this criteria.
Mets, Dodgers, Padres.
Mets:
The Mets currently sit at $235M and they still want to add more. They have a bad contract in Robinson Cano. $24M for '21 & '22. They also have some decent young players or prospects I would take a flier on. Would the Mets give up both Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki for a team to take Cano's salary off the books? You have to spend the money anyways. Dom Smith is a Gold Glove 1B who is stuck behind Alonso. We have Sano, and hopefully he has a great offseason and comes into camp down 40 pounds like Vlad Guererro, but if he doesn't, Smith would be a great long term piece at 1B, and Szapucki would be another MLB ready arm with injury history, and we have enough of those, but he could also be a great buy low candidate.
Dodgers:
Dodgers are currently at $213M and still want to bring back Kershaw, and need to replace Seager at SS. Nobody will touch Bauer, but what about taking on the final year of David Price at $32M. There is not a TON I like in their system, but maybe a Ryan Pepiot, but maybe a young player like Gavin Lux.
Padres:
Here is the one that excites me the most. Padres at $180M, but they would love to either upgrade some spots or swap out contracts. You take on BOTH Wil Myer, and Eric Hosmer. You help SD clear $40M off the books to free that up for them to go after bigger impact players you have to ask what would they give up? Would they give up CJ Abrams? that is a ton, and we already have plenty of SS, but having Lewis, Martin, Abrams all in the system and nearly ready could allow you to use that depth to then trade for potential ACE pitching prospects. Would they give up Gore? How about a trade along the lines of Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker or Trevor Larnach in exchange for either Gore or Abrams along with taking on the contracts of Myer & Hosmer?
What moves would you make if there is a salary floor and the Twins are forced to spend at least another $30M without there being a lot left in FA?
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Bundy Signing Isn’t from the Same Old Twins
Right before the final bell on the Major League Baseball offseason rang before Rob Manfred locked out the players, Minnesota got a deal done. The Twins signed former first round pick Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal worth $4 million. No, it’s not cut from the “same ole’ Twins” cloth.
Take a quick glance at Bundy’s 2021 numbers and it looks like a scrap heap pickup. He had an ERA north of 6.00 and a FIP that suggests he was equally as bad. The strikeouts dipped, the walks rose, and he gave up two homers for every nine innings he pitched. That’s not good. Now, take another look.
In the truncated 2020 season Bundy finished 9th in the American League Cy Young voting. He posted a 3.29 ERA and an even better 2.95 FIP. His 9.9 strikeout rate was a career high, and his 2.3 BB/9 was a career low. At 27 years old he posted the best season of his career. Now, where does the truth lie?
Probably somewhere in the middle. Prior to 2020, Bundy owned a 4.69 ERA while striking out just shy of one batter per inning. He gives up a decent number of dingers but has largely put the injuries that plagued him as a prospect behind him. That is, until this season. Bundy threw just 90.2 IP for the Angels in 2021 and was one of the many pitchers that saw dips in spin rate following the sticky substance ban.
So, what do we make of all this?
Firstly, regarding the sticky substances, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions. Players were forced to adapt on the fly with no warning. This is on top of having a ball that was already being manipulated by the league itself. With more runway this offseason to work through things, we could expect to see a greater ability of adaptation. The hope would be consistency from the implement centered in the game, and we’ll have a greater opportunity for a base level of results.
Secondly, regarding the injury issues, it’s fair to wonder what the impact of a shortened 2020 and competitive changes in 2021 had on his body. Baseball players are characters of habit and routine, throwing that off can have substantial ripple effects and I believe we saw that to a larger extent on the minor league side this season.
But why isn’t Bundy just another cheap pickup you ask?
Look at the upside here. Last season the Twins gave $8 million to a 38-year-old J.A. Happ who was very likely on the tail end of his career. He’d posted sub 4.00 ERA’s but had very little upside and plenty of room to go bottoms up. They gave $2 million to Matt Shoemaker who had been solid when healthy, but rarely was able to stay on the field. Again, that’s a decent amount of chance to count on in the rotation for Opening Day.
With Bundy, he has both youth and ceiling on his side while not coming close to breaking the bank. Of course this signing on its own is not worthy of praise should the Twins do nothing else, but if they execute on acquiring two more arms above this ability level, it’s a threesome they can rely on. Last season the starting staff needed top three arms or better. Instead the front office acquired two guys to mop up innings as fourth and fifth placeholders.
Should the Twins fail to execute in allocating the funds they could’ve dispersed to Jose Berrios as a rotation centerpiece, then they need to be held accountable for it. Right now though, Bundy represents a solid floor for what can be hoped to be the start of something more (once the lockout ceases, of course).
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Richie the Rally Goat for a blog entry, Thanks
It’s Thanksgiving week and in that spirit, I’d like to ask our community, “What are you thankful for?”
I’ll start:
I’m thankful for all of you, our Twins Daily community. You give me so much food for thought. You give me an outlet to discuss my passions, my fears, my skepticism. Our community makes Twins fandom great, and I haven’t found another one like it.
I’m thankful for our moderation and community leadership team, we get to work together to help make this site as conducive to robust Twins Fandom discussion as possible.
I’m thankful for our founders/owners who keep the lights on, John, Nick, Seth, Parker & Brock
I’m thankful for our writers who continuously churn out tons of great new content for the front page.
Last, but not least, I’m thankful for our blogs and bloggers who write awesome work. One blog post I’d like to point out as a moderator, was written by one of our moderator/community leadership team written 5 years ago. Posting styles discussing our frustrations about the Twins - In My Opinion - Twins Daily. I encourage our community members (myself included) to try a longer form of writing. What are you interested in? What gets your blood pressure up?
If I took the running theme of my posts, the partial thoughts, frustrated rants, one-off comments and collected them up, I could write something longer form… maybe. I dunno…
I’m unsure
What I write, might suck, it might unravel as soon as I put it out there. I don’t really know how to write prose. But that’s the power of our community and why I am so thankful for you. We as a community will offer candid feedback, support, encouragement, disagreement, and perspective.
I don’t know if blogging will work for me, or if I have that much to say, but maybe I’ll give it a shot. I encourage you all to do the same.
How about you, what are you thankful for?
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nclahammer reacted to terrydactyls for a blog entry, A Letter to the Twins Front Office and to Buxton's Agent
Here is my theoretical letter to the Twins ownership and to the agent for Byron Buxton concerning to current negotiations to extend Buxton’s contract.
A Letter to Falvey/Levine/Pohlad and B.B. Abbott
Dear Sirs:
It is my understanding that all of you are in basic agreement concerning the base salary for an extension for Byron Buxton and that the holdup is the incentives. Because your negotiations are done in private (as they should be), I have no idea what the concerns of each side might be. Here are my suggestions.
Make the base salary $12M per year beginning in 2022 and extending for an additional seven years for a total base contract of 8/$96M. The incentive plan should be have a base with achievable goals and extending to difficult to reach goals with significant rewards for attaining them. Below is a table showing some possible goals and bonuses attached to each goal. The minimum amount of bonus that can be earned would be $8M and is based on Buxton having an above league average season for an outfielder. The maximum attainable bonus would be $21.5M but would mean that Buxton would be the best player in baseball. But the amount of the bonus would be offset partially by increased revenues caused by every baseball fan in America wanting to see Buxton play in person.
Games 100 120 130 140 150 160 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Hits 140 160 180 200 220 240 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Home Runs 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Stolen Bases 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M MVP Voting 10th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M $5.0M Gold Glove Voting 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.5M $3.0M $4.5M Platinum Glove Voting 1st Bonus $2.0M I understand that this commitment would be a significant financial investment but only if Buxton provides the level of performance that should be rewarded. If you have any questions, I can be reached through Twins Daily.
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nclahammer reacted to BaseballGenius123 for a blog entry, Who Is Or Isn't a Part of Next Year's Team (Hitter's Edition)
This post will be about what hitters I believe will be a part of the 2022 Twins team that hopes to rebound after a 2021 disappointment of a season. There’s some rumors that the Twins might rebuild next year. I don’t think that will be or should be the case because the Twins have some money to spend.
The first player I’ll talk about is Luis Arraez. I believe that Luis stays on the MLB team next year. There have been some rumors that Luis gets traded in the offseason for some pitching that the Twins desperately need but in the end I think Luis is a part of the Twins 2022 ball club. However, this can change if the Twins decide to keep Josh Donaldson. I think the Twins can keep both but I don’t think it’ll happen. Arraez is hitting .286/.352/.370. Arraez can either be a utility player or he can be the starting left fielder or 3rd basemen on the 2022 team.
The next player I’ll talk about is star center fielder Byron Buxton. Buxton is a Free Agent after the 2022 season, but he could possibly be traded in the 2021 offseason. Best case scenario Buxton gets a hefty contract from the Twins. I don’t see that happening because Buxton can probably make more money then the Twins will be able to dish out to Buxton. I believe Buxton played his final home game as a Minnesota Twin and that is gonna suck. The only way I see the Twins being able to extend Buxton is if other teams are afraid of his injury history. Buxton is hitting .299/.354/.629. Buxton has only played in 58 games this year after a couple injuries.
The next player I will talk about is Jorge Polanco. This is an easy one. Polanco has been the Twins MVP this year after having to switch positions going into the 2021 season. Polanco is hiring .271/.324/.503. This player is gonna be one of the easiest players in this blog.
The next player I’ll talk about is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson like Buxton has had some injuries this year. I believe the Twins will keep Donaldson even though there has been some rumors of Donaldson being traded. I don’t think the Twins can afford to trade both Donaldson and Buxton in the same offseason. However, if the Twins can somehow extend Buxton I think Donaldson will be traded. If Donaldson is a part of the Twins in 2022 he will split time at 3rd base and DH. Donaldson is hitting .248/.351/..472.
The next player I’ll talk about is Max Kepler. Kepler has been one of my favorite Twins since his major league debut even though he doesn’t hit for much of an average. Max Kepler can be the Twins center fielder if the Twins decide to trade Buxton. If Buxton is extended I think it’ll be easier for the Twins to trade Kepler for some much needed pitching this offseason. Kepler is hitting .213/.310/.420.
The next player I’ll talk about is catcher Mitch Garver. Garver has also been hurt like a couple players I’ve named earlier in this post. Going into this year Garver and Ryan Jeffers were supposed to be a pretty good catching duo. That was not the case this year because Garver couldn’t stay healthy and Jeffers wasn’t hitting good enough at the start of the season. I believe Garver will be a member of the 2022 Twins team. However, Garver can be traded in the offseason for some pitching. Garver is hitting .256/.360/.522.
The next player I’ll talk about is Miguel Sano. Sano has always been the same player every year he’s been in the bigs. He’s got massive power but HUGE strikeout numbers. I think most fans are probably wanting to get rid of Sano because of the strikeout numbers. I believe Sano will be traded. If Sano is a part of the Twins in 2022 he will be an everyday player at first or DH. However I think Kiriloff is gonna be the first basemen and the DH will be different game to game. Sano is hitting .216/.308/.463
The next player I’ll talk about is Nick Gordon. I believe Gordon will be a member of the Twins in 2022. The reason I think this is because Gordon has proved he can play multiple positions. That is a big reason I think he will be a member of the big league club in 2022. Gordon is hitting .245/.298/.365.
The next player I’ll talk about is Ryan Jeffers. I think this is a pretty easy one as well. I believe Jeffers is the catcher of the future so Jeffers will be a member of the Twins in 2022 even though he hasn’t been hitting too good this year. He is a really good defensive catcher however. Jeffers is hitting .197/.270/.394.
The next player I’ll talk about is Brent Rooker. I believe Rooker will be traded in the offseason. I think this is because he won’t be getting everyday at bats. I believe Rooker needs everyday at bats on whatever team he is on in 2022 and I don’t think that’ll be with the Twins. Rooker is hitting .207/.300/.413. When Rooker was called up last year before he broke his wrist I thought he was gonna be a Twin for a long time. But since I don’t think he will get every day at bats in Minnesota that is the reason I think he gets traded in the offseason.
The last player I will talk about is left fielder Trevor Larnach. Trevor might not be on the Twins opening day roster in 2022 but he will start the year in St Paul and I think he will be down there for a short time. I think Larnach was called up way too early and at first he was hitting the ball pretty good. But he was sent down in July. Larnach is hitting .223/.322/.350.
Players that will be DFA’d or players in St Paul that will be obviously not on the Twins 2022 opening day roster are: Willians Austidillo (Utility Player), Jake Cave (4th outfielder), Kyle Garlick (outfielder), Rob Refsnyder (Outfielder), Ben Rortvedt (catcher) (maybe backup catcher on the Big league club if Garver is traded.), Drew Maggi (SS, Outfielder), Gilberto Celestino (outfielder).
Thanks for reading my posts throughout the season. Hopefully you liked them. My next post will be next Friday. Hope you all enjoy it. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, As Buxton Hope Fades, Front Office Goes
Byron Buxton is quite arguably the most talented player in Minnesota Twins history. His athleticism is unmatched, and his production is unparalleled. Then there’s the caveat, when healthy.
With the hometown nine looking at the doldrums of the division, and the 2021 Major League Baseball trade deadline looming, plenty of storms are brewing on the roster construction front. One of the most reported is that of Minnesota’s failed attempts at a contract extension with their star centerfielder.
Currently shelved after being hit by a pitch, Buxton had rebuffed the latest seven-year, $80 million pact that would add addition earning opportunity through incentives. That deal was just a $7 million increase over the previous offer, and still nearly $20 million shy of where this front office paid another oft-injured 3rd basemen (who is five years older) just two seasons ago.
The refrain regarding Buxton’s availability is a common one, he has been shelved often throughout his career. The reality though, is that it is through the injury history where the Twins find themselves offered grace. Because he’s been unavailable, Buxton’s $200 million or more payday is not going to happen. He would command plenty on the open market with more competition bidding on his services, but it’s the Twins who have the table and the realistic opportunity because of how his career has played out.
Coming into 2021 the team was expected to be good. Unfortunately, the front office has watched each of its offseason acquisitions tie together career-worst seasons, as well as regression from plenty of holdover talents. Unless there’s an admittance of poor talent assessment virtually across the whole roster, then there should be reason to look at this season as an outlier.
2022 represents an opportunity to reload. If the core of this club was seen as competitive before, and that’s been proven through their track record of winning, an alteration of that belief shouldn’t be so swift. To suggest there’s an attempt at competing in the year ahead while dealing the team’s best player would be hollow at best.
Certainly, both Jose Berrios and Buxton should command a haul when it comes to prospect capital in exchange for their services. The volatility of those players will always be high however, and you’d need at least two reaching something like the 95th percentile of their hopefully outcomes to feel good about what you gave up. Berrios would love a gaping hole in an already poor rotation, and Buxton’s presence would be missed on a nightly basis.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put in an infrastructure of sustainability and competitiveness. They should be commended for that. Bailing on that process at the Major League level rather than supplementing what they have fostered would be a hard pill to swallow, and one worthy of substantial criticism.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Twins Bets Worth Cashing in 2021
Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into. Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on Minnesota performances in the year ahead.
I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it.
Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts
Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total.
Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs
In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers, and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact, the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of an offense that provides plenty of thump.
Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs
Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback. There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks.
Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins
This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the 90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch.
Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1)
The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory, so taking a flier makes sense.
AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1)
Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago. That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking, while going the distance to establish him as an ace.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Allen Post for a blog entry, Falvey and Levine Have Earned Our Trust Once Again
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have landed two more big free agency punches. The intrepid front office duo ended their extended standoff with Nelson Cruz Tuesday night, signing the beloved DH a one-year $13 million deal. Then, they bolstered the bullpen Wednesday afternoon by adding Alex Colomé to an affordable one-year contract with a mutual option for a second season.
In Cruz, we know what we’re getting – or at least we hope we do. The 40-year-old slugger has hit for power as well as anybody in the game in his two seasons in a Twins jersey, but he’s just that – a 40-year-old slugger. Father Time – with a 43-year-old Tom Brady in another Superbowl – has been taking a beating recently, but he’s still undefeated. And though Cruz has been remarkably resistant to decline, he will give way to the inevitability of age soon. The Twins just hope it’s not this year. If Cruz is the same guy he has been, then Nelly will be the lead slugger in a lineup full of them and his $13 million price tag will be money well spent.
Colomé will be pretty familiar with the Twins as well. After all, he’s limited Twins hitters to a .214 average in 22 appearances against the club. Colomé primarily uses a four-seam and cutter to get his outs and, though he has a power arm, he isn’t the strikeout guy some of the rest of the Twins’ relievers are. Instead, he relies on the cutter to create ground balls and soft contact. Colomé’s career ERA is under three and, in his shortened 2020 season, it was 0.81 in 21 appearances. There’s no reason to believe he can’t be that dominant again with the Twins, especially because Minnesota’s revamped infield defense ought to serve a contact pitcher like Colomé very well.
Alex Colomé will be a valuable piece in the Twins' bullpen
It seems then that, at long last, the Twins have crossed off all the items on their offseason shopping list. After these two moves, the Twins have filled holes in the rotation and the bullpen, and at shortstop and DH. And, though the wait for substantial free agent activity was at times excruciating, the team is better today that it was at the start of the offseason. With one or two more signings for a cheap arm or utility depth, the Twins will be clear AL Central favorites again, if they aren’t already.
Today, at the end of this free agency rush, the worries we as Twins fans had during the dry spell seem silly, and really, they always were. Falvey and Levine haven’t failed us yet, but, like someone fresh out of a toxic relationship, we were expecting to get hurt, even though the person we’re with now has done nothing wrong. Terry Ryan scarred us by sticking to old school baseball well into the 21st century and by paying Ervin Santana, but “Falvine” aren’t like that. They are calculated and competent, patient but opportunistic. They are the perfect duo to have making personnel decisions in the modern-day MLB. Yeah, it took a while, but they were always in control. The Cruz deal moved at a snail’s pace because that’s what was needed to get him on a team-friendly deal. They moved on Simmons almost immediately after Semien signed elsewhere. These guys don’t miss the boat. They don’t hurt the team like Terry Ryan did. They know what they’re doing.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have the Twins in a great spot again
It’ll take time before we get used to the fact that the Twins are a competent, forward-thinking MLB organization. Even now, I’m worried – against my better judgement – that, with a bunch of one-year deals, we’ll have to go through all of this again next offseason. Though that’s probably the case, if getting a better baseball team in exchange for a few months of waiting is all we have to “go through,” then that’s fine by me. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine haven’t “lost” an offseason yet; they just take a while to win them. So, next year, when we do this again, remember who’s in charge and be patient for a few weeks. You’ll probably like where the team ends up.
Update: Minutes after this went up, the Twins dealt for a cheap arm like I mentioned above in Shaun Anderson from the Giants.
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nclahammer reacted to Andrew Luedtke for a blog entry, Does the Simmons Move Hint at Which SP the Twins Could Target?
Twins fans were rightfully excited about acquring slick fielding SS Andrelton Simmons last night.
If you want to spend a fun 10 mintues, check out his defensive highlight reel
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There's no doubt that grabbing the best defensive SS since Ozzie Smith will upgrade the Twins roster.
Combine Simmons with already strong defenders in Buxton, Donaldson, Jeffers, and Kepler, you can see how quickly the mind would shift to "well, what does this mean for their pitching?".
In my opinion, this means two things:
1) It upgrades the Twins existing staff (and should be helpful to one guy in particular)
2) It might tell us a bit about who the Twins could target next for a SP, given their newly upgraded defense
Simmons Impact on Existing Twins Pitchers:
Looking purely at GB% (calculated by the number of ground balls induced/number of balls put in play), we know that based on an improved defense, the more balls hit on the ground, the higher chance they have to be converted into outs than they did 24 hours ago (pre-Simmons signing).
It's even more fun to look at how much better the Twins defense is than in 2017 when Falvey and Levine took over. JD Cameron takes a look into that here.
From Fangraphs, a "ground ball pitcher" is any pitcher who has a GB% over 50%. League wide in 2019 - 2020, the average GB% was 42.8%.
Here is how the Twins current staff stacks up by GB% using combined stats from the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
For the most part, the majority of the staff has a below average GB% (would love to see what this chart looked like for the 2004 pitch-to-contact Twins).
Two names stand out here.
1. Randy Dobnak - GB% of 58.8%***
2. Taylor Rogers - GB% of 48.2%
***Since he came into the league, Randy Dobnak ranks 7th out of 284 pitchers in GB%.
Which SP could the Twins acquire that would benefit most from the Twins defense?
Given that any ball hit on the left side of the infield should be vaccumed up quicker than a Dyson, maybe this shifts how the front office approaches filling out the rotation. Ground ball pitchers stand to gain a lot if their infield can consistently convert more ground balls into outs.
It's the little things in baseball that make the major differences.
From 2019 - 2020, there were 284 pitchers that threw at least 75 IP.
Below are the ranks and GB% for the remaining free agents.
For this exercise, I only focused on FA that had a GB% at 44% or higher.
You can see the entire list from Fangraphs here.
Brett Anderson - 55.2% (17th)
Jake Arrieta - 51.4% (30th)
Adam Wainwright - 47.4% (71st)
Cole Hamels - 47.0% (79th)
Aaron Sanchez - 46.9% (81st)
Homer Bailey - 44% (128th)
Below are the ranks for potential trade candidates that have popped up in rumors. Again, I only focused on players with a GB% of 44% or higher.
Luis Castillo - 56.1% (13th)
Sonny Gray - 50.9% (35th)
German Marquez - 49.5% (52nd)
Jon Gray - 46.9% (81st)
BONUS. Here are a couple bullpen free agents that could benefit from a good defensive infield:
Jeremy Jeffress - 50.0%
Alex Colome - 47.7%
So there you have it. I will be interested to see how the Twins defense positively impacts the pitching staff all year long. Specifically, I am excited to see what this means for Randy Dobnak.
For now, I am most interested to see what the Simmons acquisition means in how the Twins front office addresses the rest of their pitching needs.
Do any names on this list jump out to you as being good targets for the Twins? Maybe now even moreso with a Simmons addition?
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Simba Brings Defensive Pride to Minnesota
All offseason I’ve been preaching that patience should be exhibited in regards to the Minnesota Twins. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned the benefit of doubt and shown that they are sound decision makers. Tonight, that came to fruition.
After *missing* out on Marcus Semien as one of the interested parties, they quickly pivoted to the best defender in this free agent class. Andrelton Simmons, formerly of the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels, the Platinum Glove defender makes a tandem of sorts with Byron Buxton. He’s been worth 191 defensive runs saved over the course of his career. Paired with Josh Donaldson on the left side of Minnesota’s infield, opposing batters will face a black hole.
As important as signing Simmons is, it’s also what the acquisition does for the roster construction of the Twins that makes a bigger splash. Jorge Polanco has been miscast as a shortstop for the entirety of his big-league career. His range is limited, and the arm strength has been problematic. Moving him to second base, he brings an offensive prowess that the position is often void of, and he moves a career 121 OPS+ hitter in Luis Arraez to super utility. Minnesota satisfied two separate needs with this one decision.
Sure, it’s Polanco’s move to the other side of the diamond that will draw the immediate interest but being able to deploy Arraez all over the field is a great boost for Rocco Baldelli. The favorite to win a batting title can now spell guys on a regular basis, play corner outfield, and fill in at both second and third base. Arraez was initially mentioned as a trade chip to acquire pitching, and while I do still think the Twins flip players for another arm, this role seems to perfect of a fit for him to part with.
Now that there’s some roster certainty thanks to Simmons sorting out the infield, there should be little waiting for Minnesota when it comes to Nelson Cruz. The reunion has always seemed like a logical one, and the designated hitter has been reported as not being universal for the upcoming season.
We’ve waited all winter for moves to happen, and this Simmons signing feels like a dam breaking decision that gets the ball rolling in terms of locking everything else up. The Twins may look at holdovers on the relief market, but I’d hardly be shocked if their DH and starting pitching options aren’t decided upon quickly.
The White Sox raced out to start the offseason, and the Padres have taken plenty of the spotlight, but this is a move that puts Minnesota right back on top of the Central.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Allen Post for a blog entry, Why Are We So Down on Luis Arraez?
Think back to October 2019 – the Twins had just gotten pantsed in the playoffs. Again. A really fun season had ended in disappointment. Again. But there was still ample reason for hope. One such reason for optimism was the emergence of Luis Arraez, a rookie contact-hitting savant. Now, one (odd) season later, and we’re in about the same place. The Twins are fresh off another fun season that ended in postseason embarrassment, but this year, we’re much less excited about the 23-year-old second baseman. And for what? All Arraez did in 2020 was fight through injury to hit for a .321 batting average (best on the team) and a .364 on-base percentage (second best) while playing a decent second base. So why are some Twins fans throwing his name into every possible trade deal or into a platoon with whoever ends up as Minnesota’s utility man? Hasn’t Arraez earned himself a spot in the Twins future?
2020 Season
Okay, obviously saying that Arraez “fought through injury” to bat .321 is a fairly rose-tinted way of looking at what Luis brought to the Twins last year. To put it a different way, “Arraez was an injury liability and, when he was in the lineup, he regressed in all major stat categories and offered very little in the way of power.” The truth about Arraez is somewhere in between these two takes, but I’ve heard a lot more extreme pessimism than optimism. Yes, he regressed last year and no, he doesn’t help the team when he’s injured, but we’ve found ways to excuse nearly every other Twin for those same exact problems without casting them off as trade bait (I’m looking at you, Garver and Buxton). Also, Arraez’s “regression” brought him down to a .321 average that would’ve been good for third-best in the American League if he had enough at-bats to qualify. As far as I’m concerned, that’s still a pretty good season.
Arraez's 2020 campaign was disappointing, but there's reason for hope going forward
Advanced Stats
I understand that, nowadays, you often have to do more than just hit at a high average to be a solid MLB player, but worry not, because Arraez actually improved slightly in a number of more telling advanced statistics last season. His 2020 campaign saw him improve in average exit velocity, sweet spot percentage and hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant. None of these improvements was particularly significant and he’s by no means excelling in any of these categories, but it’s clear by looking at the advanced metrics that Arraez is not getting worse at the plate. In fact, it seems that his 2020 season should have been even better than his breakout rookie year.
So why did it feel disappointing? Because we were hoping for that second-year leap and we got a regression to the mean instead. Arraez’s improvement in advanced hitting metrics and regression in average and OBP show us that his rookie year was a statistical outlier more than it was a stepping stone to even greater success in the future. Still, if .321 is the mean he regressed towards, Twins fans ought to be excited, especially considering that he was injured and is still only 23. We’ve written off much worse pandemic performances from healthier and more experienced guys, so let’s afford Arraez some of that forgiveness.
2021 Projections
Unfortunately, ZiPS (and every other projection service) doesn’t seem to be helping me make my case. They predict a slash line of .313/.371/.406 for his third year in the bigs. On the surface, this looks worse than it is because Arraez’s average is projected to take another hit, but ZiPS actually projects that .313 mark to lead the majors. They have his on-base and slugging numbers improving, too, so, really, they’re not down on Arraez at all. Even if Arraez does level out as a .313 hitter – and I think he’ll be better than that long-term – adding some power and taking more walks would be a massive improvement for his career and for the Twins lineup. And I believe he can make those improvements because, again, he’s only 23.
ZiPS projects a .313/.371/.406 slash line for Arraez in 2021
So, where does that leave us? I saw the regression from his rookie year (we all did) and no, his 2020 year wasn’t what we hoped for, but Arraez is still a great asset for the Twins moving forward. I believe in his contact hitting that has been the best on the team and I believe in the advanced metrics that show his improvements in other areas. Most of all, though, I believe in the player. Arraez has hit .300 at every level of professional baseball, and is the same age or younger than some of the Twins’ top minor-league prospects. He’s already a great hitter and he has a lot of opportunity for growth ahead of him. Luis Arraez may very well win a batting title soon, and the Twins better make sure he does it in a Minnesota jersey.
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nclahammer reacted to Allen Post for a blog entry, Happ Signing Means Bigger Things to Come...We Hope
The Twins signed veteran starter J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8 million deal this afternoon. Happ is 38 years old and pitched to a 3.47 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP in nine starts with the Yankees in 2020.
At first glance, Happ’s addition feels like the kind of boring move that is necessary for contending teams to make. He’s not making national headlines, but he’ll slide right into the fourth spot in the rotation and he’ll get a lot of important outs throughout the year as long as he stays healthy. With the addition, the rotation looks as follows:
Maeda/Berrios
The other of Maeda/Berrios
Pineda
Happ
Dobnak
That’s all well and good. That’s a high-level American League rotation. The eight million feels a little steep and Happ wasn’t on many of our radars, but you can’t be too mad at a hole getting filled.
Happ pitched well in 2020 and hopes to keep fans smiling in Minnesota
It’s certainly still possible that the Twins still spend on another starter to get closer to a 2011 Phillies-esque “Four Aces” roster construction, but I just don’t see it. The rotation is seemingly set and there are bigger holes elsewhere. While Trevor Bauer was probably always going to be too spendy, guys like Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton no longer seem like possibilities for the Twins. Of course, Jake Odorizzi could come back into the fold and push Pineda and Happ down to the four and five slots respectively. But I think Dobnak and a number of capable arms in the Twins system would hold down that five spot pretty well, so I would argue that there’s more upside in leaving Odo on the market and spending money elsewhere.
So, now that starting pitching is no longer much of a target position, the Twins’ intentions for the rest of the free agency period become a little bit clearer. We’ve been hearing about and hoping for the possibility of big moves in the coming weeks and months, and now we know better where the money will be spent. Before today, the holes in the roster were primarily at shortstop (or utility), DH, the four spot in the rotation, and in the bullpen. Falvey and Levine just filled the hole in the rotation with a somewhat cheap one-year deal. This limited commitment to the starting rotation suggests that the front office is saving money for big moves elsewhere. And it seems that any big commitments from the Twins’ will be made at short, DH or in the bullpen.
Happ's low-commitment deal allows the Twins flexibility to acquire top talent
At DH, the Twins are in position to bring back Nelson Cruz for one more ride or for a big multi-year investment in Marcell Ozuna. There are options at short too, such as Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, or blue-chip trade options Trevor Story or Javier Báez. They could also go out and get top relievers like Trevor Rosenthal and Brad Hand, but filling out the pen with cheap signings and homegrown talent is more Minnesota’s style. We could also see the club sprinkle money in a lot of places at once, signing a bunch of mid-level guys instead of one big-ticket player.
There is, of course, a chance that the Twins remain pretty inactive, and rely on guys currently in the organization to make another playoff run. For most Twins fans, this would be a worst-case scenario and, as the days go on, our collective worries grow. For the most pessimistic fans, this signing will provide little comfort. J.A. Happ isn’t a big signing. But for me, he fills a hole that allows the Twins more flexibility to pursue the bigger fish in the free agency sea. And, they will make those big signings eventually…we hope.
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nclahammer reacted to Chris Spicer for a blog entry, A Movie That Stand’s On Its Own. Revisiting a Baseball Classic: A League Of Their Own
One of the greatest baseball movies of all time wasn’t played with men as the lead actors but was with women. In 1992, Penny Marshall directed A League Of Their Own. To this date it is one of the most highly regarded baseball movies of all-time and was set in a time in which there was a chance that baseball was put in the backburner to World War II. At this moment in time, while a lot of the men were out fighting the war there were a lot of the women home taking care of their families. Cub’s owner Walter Harvey (Gary Marshall) decides to talk other owners of the Major League Baseball to create a women’s baseball league to help fill the void. This movie helps capture this moment in time with a story of two competitive sisters, memorable supporting characters, and great acting.
The heart of this film rests on sisters Dottie (Geena Davis) and Kit Hinson’s (Lori Petty) competitive nature and love for each other. The movie starts off with the two going back and forth about Kit’s batting while scout Ernie Capadino (Jon Lovitz) looks on and determines that Dottie is the player he wants on his team for this new big-league team. Dottie refuses but it’s Kit that insists this is her chance to get away. Ernie tells Kit that if she talks Dottie into playing than they both can play, and she does. Throughout the movie there is a glaring difference between the two’s talent level and Dottie is a star while Kit is too stuck in playing the game her own way and often does not rise to the challenge. Kit begins to become very resentful of Dottie’s success to the point that she is traded to a new team. The movie makes it apparently clear that if each sister could trade places, that they would, and that Dottie would be just as happy at home waiting on her husband to come back from the war. It’s this moment in the movie that you wish the two could have just made up and kept winning on the Peaches. But what would be the fun it that; there had to be a rivalry with a climax that pays off this rivalry. Both sisters meet up In the World Series and the rivalry is settled. Watching this the first time, I had wished it went the other way but after repeat viewing it is a very satisfying conclusion.
The best movies have supporting characters that help carry a movie. Jimmy Dugan (Tom Hanks), the Peaches manager who is an alcoholic has some of the best moments of the movie. He starts off treating the whole thing as a joke and then begins to warm up to the team. Everything from taking an extended pee in front of the girls to yelling there’s no crying in baseball to one of the girls is some movie magic. There’s also the teammates of the Peaches that include Mae Mordabito (Madonna), Doris Murphy (Rosie O’ Donnell), and Marla Hooch (Megan Cavanagh) who also become the heart of the movie as well. Their all dealing with their own issues on the field and off the field that really help audiences want to rally around them. Mae helps a fellow player how to read, Doris keeps the team engaged, and Marla finally feels comfortable in her own skin and marries a man. The team becomes a sisterhood, and they all keep each other accountable.
The acting in this movie is what make this film tick. Before the movie even started filming; all the actors had to spend eight hours a day, six days a week doing baseball drills so that the movie looks realistic. Penny Marshall wanted the film to look very authentic. Geena Davis was a perfect choice as Dottie because she does a good job of coming off as a talented baseball player and you feel like her character is genuine. Tom Hanks is a scene stealer who injects the movie with a sense of sarcasm and charm that it would be hard to imagine anyone else playing the part. Rosie O’Donnell also steals scenes with her comedic timing and her heartwarming scenes of reacting to the huge stage they were playing on. Madonna has some good moments too but at the time this came out may have been more of a distraction based off her popular music career. Even some of the smaller parts like Jon Lovitz and Garry Marshall all do a good job with what they are given. Davis has even said that a lot of the women playing baseball in scenes suffered ripped off skin from sliding home in continuous takes. All the hard work and research done in these characters really shown through the actor’s great work.
In the end, this movie packs an emotional punch with the characters returning over 40 years later to open an All-American Girls Professional Baseball League exhibit at the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1988. We than see the characters reminiscing and we see the fates of these characters and they all sing their team’s song one last time together. It’s movie moments like this that we remember why we love the game of baseball and why we love playing baseball and that’s because we loved playing the game with our teammates. A league of their own does a good job of letting us remember the spirit of being young and making the game about our love with it by giving us a good story of two sisters, memorable supporting characters and great acting!
Rating: Grand Slam! 5 out of 5 stars.
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nclahammer reacted to Allen Post for a blog entry, Ranking Twins' Offseason Targets on the Fun Meter
Let’s forget for a second about WAR, launch angle, and exit velocity. Push your thoughts of FIP, xFIP, and BABIP to the side, and remember why we all got into baseball in the first place. It’s fun. So, I’ve compiled a short list of potential future Twins, and rated how fun they’d be in Minnesota from Boring to Very Fun. Enjoy.
Javier Báez – Very Fun
The Twins are in the market for a new shortstop and the Cubs seem to be in fire sale mode, so a move that sends Báez to Minnesota might be in both clubs’ best interests. And, simply put, Báez maxes out the fun meter. He’s a still relatively young, swagger-filled middle infielder that does amazing things in the field and sports a good amount of pop in his bat. Forget about his mediocre 2020 stats for a second – watching Báez play is fun because he has the look and the confidence of the best player on the field even if he really isn’t anymore. He’s been on the cover of The Show, something nobody else on this list can claim. And, I’ve kind of buried the lede here – the coolest part about El Mago (cool nickname too) are his tags.
Trevor Story – Kinda Fun
Trevor Story, another shortstop trade possibility, gets a Kinda Fun designation because, though he may be the best available option at short, he doesn’t boast the star power and flair of Báez and others. Don’t get me wrong – Story is a star; he’s great in the field and at the plate, but looking at his stats on baseball reference is almost more exciting that watching him play. It doesn’t help that he’s been marooned off in Colorado, but Story just doesn’t have that “it factor” or special skill that sets him above the other great shortstops in the league, at least in terms of fun-ness. He does have a pretty mean bat flip, but there’s no crazy tag compilation out there on YouTube, for example. He’ll be a very welcome addition to the Twins if he comes, but a middle-of-the-road rating on the fun meter feels right.
Marcus Semien – Boring
Marcus Semien is probably the best shortstop available on the free agency market, but there’s a reason a lot of Twins fans would rather give up young talent in a Báez or Story trade than simply sign the former Oakland shortstop. Signing Semien would just give off the feeling that they needed a shortstop and signed a shortstop, not the shortstop that anybody really wants. Semien has been a top-tier player in the past, but a pretty dismal 2020 makes him feel like a more expensive Jorge Polanco rather than a Polanco replacement, and spending on a player that does little to change the status quo is the opposite of fun. Perhaps if I allowed myself to make a joke about his last name, I could bump him up a few levels, but I’m not going to do that so he’s stays at Boring.
Nelson Cruz – Fun
Perhaps the Twins’ biggest question of the offseason is whether to bring Nelson Cruz back or not and, while our opinions may vary widely on whether it’s wise to spend on a 40-year-old DH, that’s not what I’m here to talk about. Nelson Cruz is fun. With Cruz, there’s no “shiny new car” feeling because he’s been in Minnesota for two years, but there’s a reason he’s been your dad’s favorite Twins player those two years. He’s been a star in the league for the better part of a decade and we love when stars come to Minnesota, especially when they lead the team to an MLB record for home runs. Even better, Cruz’s locker room personality is the driving force behind the “Bomba Squad” moniker and the team identity that’s the Twins last few years on of the most fun teams in the league.
Marcell Ozuna – Fun
Should the Twins decide against bringing back Cruz, Marcell Ozuna could serve as a long-term high-end option at DH. Though losing Cruz might be sad for many Twins fans, they’d be getting no downgrade in the fun department with Ozuna. He’s a big, muscular dude who wears a bright chartreuse arm sleeve and hits bombs. Massive bombs. In large quantities. Last year, Ozuna led the league in home runs and runs batted in and, though there are certainly more intelligent stats, big homer and RBI guys are very fun to have in the lineup. Advanced stats fans should like him too, as his exit velocity numbers and hard hit percentage were among the best in the league last year. The only thing keeping Ozuna from rising into the Very Fun tier is the possibility of a regression that could make him a Sanó-esque strikeout frustration.
Trevor Bauer – Very Fun
Now, the Twins odds acquiring the free agent ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner aren’t that great, but he falls into the Very Fun category, so it’s fun to imagine. Bauer is and always has been controversial, so he may not be every Twins fan’s cup of tea, but that’s exactly why I would love to have him so much. The guy who talks the most and angers the most people is exactly the type of guy you want on your team, as long as he’s playing well. And fresh off a Cy Young year, he’s certainly doing that. Above all else though, Bauer has a curious and innovative baseball mind that, as a fan, is fun to see on your favorite team. His appreciation for the craft of pitching is something that every Twins fan ought to be able to appreciate, even if some don’t like his attitude. Also – He’s a fun follow on YouTube.
Sonny Gray – Not That Fun
Gray, who was Bauer’s teammate last year in Cincinnati, would also be a good addition to the Twins rotation, but he’s not nearly as exciting. With a career ERA in the threes and a WHIP in the 1.2 range, Minnesota fans would probably be happy to have him, but we also managed to make Carl Pavano seem exciting. The fact is that, since he burst into the bigs as a rookie, nobody has ever called you excitedly to say “Hey, did you see what Sonny Gray did last night?!?!” unless they were a Yankees fan complaining about his poor performance in pinstripes. Gray seems like a fun guy to know and have in the locker room, but that doesn’t make him a fun player to watch. If he signs with Minnesota, he’ll be a mid-rotation out-getter more than a jersey-seller.
Trevor Rosenthal – Kinda Fun
The Twins haven’t had a true flamethrower in the bullpen (other than Brusdar Graterol’s 10 games) in a long while, but that’s what they would get by bringing in free agent reliever Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal looked on the brink of exiting the league not too long ago but was dominant down the stretch for the Padres last year, and he regularly touched triple-digit velocity. A dominant hard-throwing reliever is one of most exciting players to watch and have on your team, so Rosenthal, should he sign, would be a very entertaining player to have around. However, he’s only a year removed from being an out of control
, and those guys are torturous to watch. I’ll hedge my bets and put him at Kinda Fun. -
nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, 40 Man Suggesting Shuffles for Twins
After the Minnesota Twins signed veteran reliever Hansel Robles to a Major League deal this offseason, their 40-man roster was down to just four openings. Needing significant reinforcements still, it’s a good bet that addition by subtraction could be coming.
By my estimation Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have no less than players yet to acquire, but a more comfortable reality is probably in the ballpark of six. With that in mind, a shortage on 40-man spots becomes a reality, and swinging a deal including a player from that group makes some sense.
As things stand today, with Minnesota having made virtually no moves of any real substance, I’d think they need no less than two infield/utility types, another relief arm, and at least one starting pitcher. You can push the argument for a second starting arm, as well as another reliever, and the designated hitter vacancy still must be filled. That’s anywhere from four to seven fresh faces.
So, what happens next?
There’s been plenty of talk regarding the Twins making a move for a shortstop. In that scenario Jorge Polanco can either become a utility option, or he assumes the role of starting second basemen and Luis Arraez goes into flux. I like Arraez moving around a bit more, though he’s also been noted as a trade chip. Regardless of how it shakes out, there’s two 40-man players currently waiting on standby.
When looking at the arms, it’s hard to see many that won’t fit. Both Ian Gibaut and Brandon Waddell we’re claimed off waivers and are penciled onto the big-league roster as of now. It’s fair to believe one of them could be upgraded, but neither should be looked at as a trade chip. Both top pitching prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are on the 40-man, so if either are swapped for a veteran asset, that’s one way to create a net-zero addition.
There’s little incentive to outright LaMonte Wade and Gilberto Celestino has had plenty of positive talk the past few months among outfielders. Willians Astudillo isn’t really a catcher despite being included in that grouping, but Ben Rortvedt may not be an ideal leap from Double-A being more of a defense only asset at this point. If there’s a position player not expected to be on the Major League roster that gets included in a trade, I think it’s former first round draft pick Nick Gordon.
Over the course of his pro career Gordon has followed a pretty consistent path in that he’s succeeded the second time through a level. He’s no longer much for prospect status, and he’s not a shortstop anymore either. Gordon won’t bump either Arraez or Polanco off second base, and I don’t know that his bat does enough to be the utility guy. I believe there’s a legitimate big-league player here but have contended for a while it will come in a different organization. Now may be the time.
When the dust settles, I think the most likely position Minnesota trades for is starting pitching. Jake Odorizzi would be a good addition, but they aren’t getting Trevor Bauer and everyone else has their own warts to consider. Plucking from another organization and swapping prospect capital looks like a pretty good fit.
I’d be surprised if we saw just a straightforward addition of four new players and throwing a trade in allows a good opportunity to tweak the 40-man openings.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, 2020 Was a Year, and We Had Baseball
We’re about to close the book on one of the craziest years in my lifetime. At 30 years old, I’ve hardly seen as much as the next person, but to say this calendar was filled with unprecedented events would be putting it lightly. Through it all though, we had baseball, and that was a distraction I know that I needed.
I remember many months ago now, waking up from a nap and looking at my phone. There was an alert from ESPN noting that Kobe Bryant had died in a helicopter accident. As I processed that, it didn’t hit me as to what the magnitude I’d feel from that event would be. Kobe was a cultural icon, more than just a basketball player, and despite being a Jordan guy he was an athlete I respected. From there, things got worse.
I’ll never forget sitting in Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida on March 13. The night before Rudy Gobert had tested positive for Coronavirus and the NBA effectively closed its doors. Covering the Twins Spring Training, things seemed ominous that morning as teams had already gone to distancing fans from players with roped off areas. By noon, Major League Baseball had put a halt on all operations. I hopped a flight and headed home.
Since that day, I have not returned to the office for my day job. We’ve dealt with closings of restaurants, public spaces, wearing masks, and plenty of other new versions of normal. Minneapolis experienced extreme racial unrest as the city turned into a warzone. There’s been political and social unrest, and countless other prominent figures that have now left us. For a brief four-month period though, there was baseball.
Leading up to the regular season we watched as the commissioner and ownership groups publicly tore down their players in an effort to squeeze profits through what would be a different year. There was uncertainty as to whether a season would be played at all and writing about the sport took a different turn. There was no minor league action to cover, and in months there typically would have been action, an ability to get creative was necessary.
As the dust settled though, we had the resumption of a game. Teams were diligent in their efforts to avoid Covid-19 outbreaks, the play on the field checked in at a high level, and the Los Angeles Dodgers won a World Series. Back in early summer, none of that seemed remotely possible.
More than any other year, I needed this out. I lost my grandpa to cancer in August, and the day following his funeral my 59-year-old father died in a car accident. I’ve spent more time in a cemetery over the past three months than I have during the entire duration of my life. I know that my challenges in 2020 are not alone, and that this year has been trying on so many. Financial distress, learning to cope with new working situations, understanding how to handle a certain level of social isolation, the totality of it all is not lost on anyone.
At the end of the day though, it was this, a child’s game, that provided a reprieve. We’ll have baseball again, the world will heal, and we can all be better and stronger people for what we have overcome. It will forever be a passion to break down the effectiveness of Jorge Polanco at shortstop, or whether Jose Berrios will round into a bonafide ace. Even if you take away that type of consumption though, the purity of a game, the crack of the bat, and the smell of fresh cut grass will always be an inviting escape.
Thank you for venturing on this journey with me, and I look forward to a more consistent level of normalcy in the months ahead. Below you’ll also find some of my favorite pieces from this season.
Women in Baseball Series
Kobe Was So Much More than Basketball
Byron Buxton's Next Great Act
Art Proving Unexpected Outlet to Fill the Baseball Void
What's Happening at the Alternate Site?
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to mikelink45 for a blog entry, moving the needle
As I read the entries on the TD sight we all imagine getting players in Free agency or big trades. This is especially true when we see the Padres making their moves. What I really liked was the WAR team ratings that MLB.com got from Fangraphs and I used for the Blog photo. This is really significant to me. It shows us ranked fifth, but there are five teams close behind us and only two in the AL ahead of us.
So any move we make has to keep us above the teams right behind us like the White Sox. And ideally we would catch Houston and New York.
This means any signing has to add WAR to our team and we have to subtract any WAR associated with the player we lose or demote. Trevor Bauer jumps the other teams, but looking at the rest of the top free agents - we do not need another catcher - Realmuto cannot get us there, does LeMahieu replace Arraez with enough positive growth - no. Ozuna could replace Cruz, but would not give us more than Cruz provided so it might be good long term, but it would not make a one year rise in team strength.
Springer is great, but Kiriloff might be, Buxton might play a full year. He might give us a rise, but not all the way. Is Siemian enough of a SS and WAR player to lift the team when Polanco is subtracted from the WAR total? No.
Sugaro? Who knows? He might be the wild card and maybe he can lift the bottom of the rotation enough to make the difference that we need.
Hendriks would definitely give us a boost, especially since we have jettisoned so many, but if we subtract those we lost what would the net gain be?
So we are in a rut. We are good, we will stay good, but will we rise? I think Trevor Bauer might be the only one who can do that for us and I do not feel like he is on our radar.
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, 2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
This will be my 6th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.
The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.
Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
Now, let’s get to it!
15. Akil Baddoo OF
Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.
14. Gilberto Celestino OF
Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.
13. Matt Wallner OF
The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.
12. Matt Canterino RHP
On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.
11. Lewis Thorpe LHP
Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.
10. Aaron Sabato 1B
I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.
9. Keoni Cavaco SS
Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.
8. Brent Rooker OF/1B
If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.
7. Blayne Enlow RHP
I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.
6. Ryan Jeffers C
Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.
5. Jhoan Duran RHP
There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.
4. Trevor Larnach OF
For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.
3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.
2. Royce Lewis SS
Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.
1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Eddie Rosario Almanac
Now that the Eddie Rosario Experience is almost certainly over, let's take a look back at some of his contributions to Twins history. This is just what appears in my Twins Almanac spreadsheet. Please contribute your own Eddie trivia, fun facts, or cool stories in the comments section. And if you're into this kind of stuff, follow me on Twitter at @TwinsAlmanac.
May 6, 2015
Major League Debut
Leading off the bottom of the third against Oakland's Scott Kazmir, the 23-year-old Puerto Rico native hits the first big-league pitch he sees for an opposite field home run. In what made for a storybook moment, Eddie's parents were actually in the stands at Target Field being interviewed by Marney Gellner when it happened. Twins won 13-0.
Six Twins have homered in their first major league at-bat: Rick Renick, Dave McKay, Gary Gaetti, Andre David, Gary Gaetti, Luke Hughes, and Rosario. Fifteen players in major league history have homered on their first pitch, including former Twin Brant Alyea (playing for the Ted Williams-managed Senators).
July 30, 2015
Triple Streak
The rookie left fielder triples in his third-straight game, tying the club record (Rod Carew 1977, Dan Gladden 1991, and Delmon Young 2008). Bonus Fact: Rosario led the majors with 15 triples his rookie season.
June 13, 2017
First Three-Home Run Game
The Twins beat the Mariners 20-7 at Target Field, setting a franchise record with 28 hits. Nine-batter Eddie Rosario goes 4-for-5 with three home runs, five RBI, and three runs scored.
Third baseman Eduardo Escobar went 5-for-6 in the game. Kennys Vargas, Jason Castro, and Rosario all had four hits. The only Twin in the starting lineup without multiple hits was first baseman Joe Mauer.
Rosario's 13 total bases in the game are tied for second-most in team history, along with outfieldmates Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, Tim Teufel, and Rich Becker. Kirby Puckett set the team record with 14 that one Sunday in Milwaukee.
Rosario was the fifth player in major league history to hit three home runs from the nine-hole. The others were Trot Nixon, Dale Sveum, Art Shamsky, and knuckleball pitcher Jim Tobin in May 14, 1942.
July 1, 2017
5-for-5
Rosario goes 5-for-5 with three runs scored and an RBI in a 10-5 Twins win in Kansas City. Last I checked, there have been 51 five-hit games in Twins history. Escobar and Rosario both had one in 2017.
Kirby Puckett had two six-hit games—one each in 1987 and '91.
June 3, 2018
Second Three-Home Run Game
Tied with stupid Cleveland 5-5 in the bottom of the ninth, Rosario hits a two-run walk-off home run, becoming the first player in team history with two career three-home run games. Additionally, he joined Tony Oliva as the only other player in team history with two games with 12 or more total bases.
Max Kepler and Nelson Cruz have since joined the club of Twins players with two career three-home run games, with Cruz's coming just 10 days apart.
Hitting three home runs in a game used to be a big deal. There were just four such games in the team's first 55 seasons (Bob Allison, Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, and Justin Morneau), and EIGHT in the four seasons from 2016 to 2019.
April 5, 2019
Rosario's Bat Hits for Cycle
Jorge Polanco goes 5-for-5, hitting for the 11th cycle in Twins history—and he did it swinging Eddie Rosario's bat! Unfortunately the Twins lost 10-4 in Philadelphia (starter Jake Odorrizi gave up five runs in 2/3 of an inning).
Polanco came up a double shy of the cycle just four days later.
April 20, 2019
Second-Straight Multi-HR Game
In the first game of a Saturday doubleheader in Baltimore, Rosario hits two solo home runs in a 6-5 win, joining Don Mincher and Kirby Puckett as the only players in team history with back-to-back multi-home run games.
The Twins tied a team record with eight home runs in the second game of the doubleheader. They had a second eight-home run game just over a month later, on May 23, becoming just the second team in major league history with two such games in one season, joining the '05 Rangers.
May 6, 2019
12 Home Runs in First 32 Games
(*Note: This one is really about Kirby Puckett)
After hitting zero home runs in 1984, and just four in 1985, Kirby Puckett erupted for 13 home runs in the Twins' first 33 games of the '86 season. That's a team record. Second-most through 33 is 12, by Harmon Killebrew in 1970, Rosario in 2019, and Nelson Cruz this season. (Rosario hit his 13th in Game 34, but, like I said, this fun fact was about Puckett.)
Well folks, that's what I have. Obviously there are a lot more Eddie Rosario memories to share. Please make your contributions in the comments section below. (I remember him inducing a big balk dancing off third base...) And remember, if you enjoy geeking out on Twins history, coming join me at
@TwinsAlmanac on Twitter.
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nclahammer reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Twins Join Cities as Saints Become Affiliate
As has been the expectation now for week, the St. Paul Saints will officially join the Minnesota Twins organization in 2021 per reports from the Star Tribune. Previously playing in the American Association as an Independent Baseball team, they’ll now assume the role of the Twins Triple-A affiliate.
For years there has been talk about the convenience having an affiliate just down I-94 would provide the Twins. Then during the pandemic shortened season, CHS Field acted as the alternate site for the Major League club. With Major League Baseball throwing around its weight and controlling baseball across the country, a massive reshuffling has taken place. Gone are roughly 40 minor league clubs as 120 total affiliates is the new number. Regional restructuring has taken place, and new draft feeder leagues have emerged.
Impacting the Twins is a new partner at the highest minor league level. Having been affiliated with the Rochester Red Wings since 2003, the Minnesota Twins will now turn a new chapter in their developmental history. The Saints were founded in 1993 and were originally part of the Northern League prior to joining the American Association.
As it’s the Saints joining the Twins organization, they’ll inherit talent from within. Minnesota will now send Triple-A destined prospects to St. Paul rather than Rochester. This means that the players previously under contract with the Saints will be displaced throughout Independent Baseball. Per reporter Chelsea Ladd, there have been talks the American Association will hold a draft of sorts to find those players new teams.
Also, of note is the Twins swapping their Double-A affiliate. After just one season working with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the Twins will now join forces with the Wichita Wind Surge. The Wind Surge were originally scheduled to operate as the Miami Marlins Triple-A affiliate, with 2020 being their first season. Obviously with the pandemic that never happened. It’s not great news for Wichita, who will drop a level in with the affiliation, but Minnesota inherits a closer Double-A club and one that is opening a brand-new ballpark and facilities.
Certainly, Major League Baseball expanding its reach across Major League, Minor League, and now even amateur baseball is a suboptimal development. Having such a monopoly over the sport, ownership groups continue to line their pockets while paydays for future generations of talent can continue to be stifled. However, if you’re simply a Twins fan, having the ability to watch future franchise pieces just 13 miles from Target Field, and a driveable journey to Wichita as a possibility, isn’t the worst silver lining.
For years, the St. Paul Saints possibility has been kicked around, and now in the first year it will happen top prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jordan Balazovic, and Jhoan Duran should all be featured for a time in St. Paul. We may have to wait through the waning stages of a pandemic to see them in person, but a new era of baseball in Twins Territory has been ushered in.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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nclahammer reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, Let`s bring back the `87 Twins
In 1986 the Twins had one of the worst records in baseball (71-91) but in 1987 the Twins turned it around, becoming a Cinderella story that won the World Series. A story which inspired movies. 1986 team was basically the same team as the 1987 w/ players Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Frank Viola, Bert Byleven, Tom Brunaski, Roy Smalley, to name a few. So what changed? They brought back the pin-stripes & added the M insignia. The change was a immediate success & continued w/ success for years, winning another WS, AL Championship, many perennial Divisional Championships & PS wins. The M insignia was dropped in 2010 from home games & was retired completely in 2014. Twins haven`t won a PS game since & not even qualifying very often.
http://twinsdaily.com/blog/427/entry-6053-save-the-m/#:~:text=Well%20the%20Twins%20officially%20%E2%80%9Cretired,has%20negatively%20affected%20the%20season
http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1318/entry-13727-why-did-the-twins-regressed-in-2020-one-answer/
I know you are probably saying this guy is nuts, super-superstitious or believe in luck.
I assure you I am none of the above. But I do believe that if something works don`t fix it. I don`t care if I can`t explain it or people think the baby blues w/ TC insignia are cute. I say we bring back the pinstripes & M insignia & get the monkey off our back AGAIN
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nclahammer reacted to nowheresville for a blog entry, Prediction: The Twins are Heading to Wichita (and maybe St. Paul too)
Minor League Baseball is going to see massive changes in 2021, and the Twins have already signaled that they will be among the teams seeing the biggest shakeups. There has been plenty of speculation that St. Paul will become their new AAA home, but it's my belief that whether or not that happens, the Twins will end up with a Minor League Team in Wichita, Kansas one way or another.
As a quick recap, Minor League Baseball is expected to undergo a massive reorganization starting next season as it is taken over by Major League Baseball. At least 40 teams will be contracted, the short season and rookie leagues are being eliminated, and other levels are expected to see significant changes and realignment. New deals between Major Leagues and affiliates are also expected to go from 2-4 year deals, like they had been previously and saw the Twins shift from New Britain to Chattanooga to Pensacola for AA just within the past decade, to 10 year deals, to create more stability between MLB and MILB teams.
For the Twins, that means the Elizabethton Twins are no longer a Twins farm team, Fort Myers and the Florida State League will shift to Low-A, while Cedar Rapids and the Midwest League will move up to High-A. The Twins have also already announced that they are cutting ties with Rochester (NY) and will be looking for a new AAA home.
For many Twins fans, the AAA changes have been getting the most attention, as the St. Paul Saints are one of two 2 independent teams being invited to join AAA, the other being the Sugarland Skeeters in suburban Houston. The possibility of having Twins Prospects playing just 12 miles away from Target Field is certainly an exciting development for Twins fans, especially those who closely follow the Twins Minor League Prospects. The sticking point appears to be around money, specifically if the Saints ownership is willing to pay the $20M franchise fee to join affiliated minor league ball.
But while St. Paul seems clear as plan A, there have been several reports listing Wichita as plan B, and that could be an excellent option as well. The Wichita Wind Surge is a brand new team with a brand new ballpark. They were supposed to make their debut last season as the AAA team of the Miami Marlins, until COVID cancelled the Minor League Season. In addition to having brand new facilities, Wichita would also be a very good geographic fit as well. Wichita is a little over 600 miles away from the Twin Cities, and while that can't compete with the Saints in terms of distance, it's still significantly shorter than the trip to Rochester and is actually one of the closest existing AAA cities to Minnesota. Only Des Moines and Omaha, whose longtime ties to the Cubs and Royals aren't likely to change, are significantly closer. Additionally, as part of the reorganization, the Pacific Coast League is likely to be adjusted so it is only West Coast Teams, instead of the previous setup which had teams stretching from Tacoma to Nashville. The extreme travel of the PCL is one of the main reason the Twins worked to stay in Rochester and the IL, but that seems to be unlikely an issue moving forward if the Twins end up in Wichita for AAA.
Even if St. Paul does become a reality and becomes the Twins new AAA team, there's still a very good chance that the Twins end up in Wichita anyway! Mixed into other reports about this year's Minor League affiliation dance is that the Marlins will be moving their AAA team to Jacksonville - which had been the home of their AA team - and then their AA team will shift to Pensacola. Pensacola, of course, has been the Twins AA home for the past 2 years, and if those reports are accurate, the Twins will need a new AA location. There are 3 AA leagues, the Eastern, Southern, and Texas Leagues, none of which have teams that are particularly close to Minnesota, so there's no natural fit, and because of travel, there's no chance of any city in or near Minnesota becoming a AA city.
Wichita, on the other hand, could be available as a AA location. If both the Saints and the Sugarland (TX) Skeeters - the other independent team under consideration for AAA affiliation - decide to join up, then there are reports that Wichita and San Antonio (Brewers current AAA) would both be moved down to the AA Texas League. In that case, Wichita would still be one of the closest available AA option for the Twins, and with brand new facilities would be a very appealing location.
As a side note - if San Antonio does get moved to AA, that creates a really interesting situation for the Brewers. Presumably, Houston would take Sugarland as it's new AAA home, and the Rangers would move their AAA team from Nashville back to Round Rock. Nashville would be an excellent fit for Milwaukee, except a few years ago, Nashville effectively kicked out the Brewers right as they opened a new ballpark - and the Brewers were quite public about how unhappy they were with how that situation unfolded.
Obviously, there are still a lot of moving parts in regards to Minor League Baseball's major overhaul, and we won't have any true answers until MLB makes its long awaited official reorganization announcement, likely sometime soon. But since whatever changes are decided this month are likely to be in place for at least the next 10 years, it's important that the Twins settle in a good situation. With a brand new park, that's relatively close to Minnesota, Wichita looks like it could be a very nice place for Twins prospects to settle in, no matter if it's Double or Triple A.
Update 11/30/20: According to a sports reporter in Wichita, the Twins/Wichita partnership will be made official this week.
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nclahammer reacted to mikelink45 for a blog entry, Eddie or Miguel or Byron or Max? You choose
Since the main TD articles keep talking about Eddie Rosario being traded, cut, cursed or whatever you want to call it I thought it might be instructive to do a comparison of all the six year players on the roster. In a move that we all thought would make the future of the Twins we had Eddie, Byron, Miguel, and Max arrive the same year and it did not take long before they were part of a home run hitting behemoth and twice got to the playoffs where they, like their predecessors failed. (I chose not to include pitchers since there is no way to have equivalent values between pitchers and position players.) Now all the discussions are about Eddie being too expensive and not needed. Why?
Over the same six years here is there worth in Baseball Reference WAR -
Max Kepler 12..3
Byron Buxton 11.7
Eddie Rosario 11.6
Miguel Sano 7.6
That makes the case for Eddie a little stronger as his WAR is not far off the top two and Miguel is the bottom (he was -0.2 this year).
How about OBP?
Sano 332
Kepler 319
Eddie 310
Buxton 289
OBP seems to consistently be the knock on Eddie, but in comparison he is not looking as bad as all the articles seem to hint.
Okay let's try OPS and spruce up the data:
Sano 829
Eddie 788
Kepler 763
Buxton 719
Sano blows them all away, but look who is second!
Home Runs?
Sano 131
Eddie 119
Max 101
Byron 51
Eddie looks pretty good here too.
So being a traditionalist - what about RBIs? I know some of you do not believe in them, but what do you do when no one brings in the baserunners? I know - lose the playoffs.
Eddie 388
Miguel 344
Max 303
Buxton 172
Like I have commented elsewhere, Eddie has a knack for bringing in runners and in this lineup, who doesn't have an opportunity?
Another old tradition is BA - so let's check it out.
Rosario 277
Sano 241
Buxton 238
Kepler 237
What about scoring runs? Yes runs win games.
Rosario 400
Max 324
Sano 317
Buxton 204
So who stays on the field? Games played
Rosario 697
Max 601
Miguel 539
Buxton 432
I know - you can say just think of the stats that the others would have if they played the same number of games - the trouble is they didn't. Max missed more than the number of games in last years short season - actually he missed the equivalent of 1 1/2 of last years games. Miquel is 158 games short - close to a full season and Buxton is 265 games shore - one full season plus 100 more! Can we say that Eddie is dependable?
Someone will say, ya, but he can't field. I do not like a lot of fielding metrics but for the sake of this essay here is 2020 Fangraphs fielding for the four players
Buxton 2.5
Rosario 1.2
Kepler -0.7
Sano -2.2
Everyone told me that Kepler was such a valuable fielder and Rosario was terrible.
So baserunning - yep Rosario is a loose cannon here - I cannot justify his 2020 ranking
Kepler 2.3
Sano 2.3
Buxton 0.4
Eddie -2
So there are all the various listings that seem to be part of the discussions. That is 10 statistical comparisons - if I treat them all as equal - I leave it to you to argue - then the one with the least points (if someone finished 1st in all they would have 10 points) should rate highest. Here are the point totals
Rosario 20
Sano 23
Kepler 24
Buxton 29
At this point in their careers I would say Rosario was the most valuable of the four, but beyond statistics that is also my bias. Prove me wrong or agree with me, but don't just say I think!

