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mikelink45

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blog-0128910001609292075.pngAs I read the entries on the TD sight we all imagine getting players in Free agency or big trades. This is especially true when we see the Padres making their moves. What I really liked was the WAR team ratings that MLB.com got from Fangraphs and I used for the Blog photo. This is really significant to me. It shows us ranked fifth, but there are five teams close behind us and only two in the AL ahead of us.

 

So any move we make has to keep us above the teams right behind us like the White Sox. And ideally we would catch Houston and New York.

 

This means any signing has to add WAR to our team and we have to subtract any WAR associated with the player we lose or demote. Trevor Bauer jumps the other teams, but looking at the rest of the top free agents - we do not need another catcher - Realmuto cannot get us there, does LeMahieu replace Arraez with enough positive growth - no. Ozuna could replace Cruz, but would not give us more than Cruz provided so it might be good long term, but it would not make a one year rise in team strength.

 

Springer is great, but Kiriloff might be, Buxton might play a full year. He might give us a rise, but not all the way. Is Siemian enough of a SS and WAR player to lift the team when Polanco is subtracted from the WAR total? No.

 

Sugaro? Who knows? He might be the wild card and maybe he can lift the bottom of the rotation enough to make the difference that we need.

 

Hendriks would definitely give us a boost, especially since we have jettisoned so many, but if we subtract those we lost what would the net gain be?

 

So we are in a rut. We are good, we will stay good, but will we rise? I think Trevor Bauer might be the only one who can do that for us and I do not feel like he is on our radar.

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I think you right Mike.  The only other move that would really move the needle is a trade that brings Luis Castillo to the Twins.  

The only way we can do that is by taking Castellanos in the deal.  

And it would still be expensive and probably mean no Nellie Cruz.

 

But we need a stud added to our rotation that makes a difference.

Paxton or Odorizzi would be helpful, but not difference makers in the post-season.

Only Bauer or Castillo do that.

And I think after the moves the Padres made, the Dodgers might feel the need to do something BIG.

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