KirbyDome89

Nope, that wasn't my assumption and I don't think anybody is making Trout comps. Spot on, he's an incredibly valuable player with the "when healthy," caveat. Big yikes if that's an actual argument you're making with those four names.

If the escalators are easily attainable and he can reach $20M+ that's a slam dunk. I think we'd all agree he isn't getting 7 years $140M+ in FA. What's your basis for these numbers? So I prefaced the comp by saying it wasn't perfect and Donaldson's past success far outweighs Buxton's. The Josh Donaldson from '13 to '16 wasn't who the Twins were signing. The committed $21M annually to a 34 year old that had one healthy season in the last 3 due to nagging calf injuries. I have no issue with the signing, and Donaldson was and still is a talent. The point was the risk the Twins were willing to take. Whether it's a final piece or a premium position with no internal replacement (CF) I don't think it really matters.

Yep, getting both is highly unlikely. I get what the Twins are doing, but if I'm Buxton it's just way too team friendly of an offer. They can sell it as security, and in some sense it is, but the reality is the Twins are buying low. I wish they would make the shorter term higher AAV offer we both think he can command

I've seen it, and you won't get any argument from me that it's anything but brutal. I agree, I just don't see him falling off a cliff during his age 27-30 or 31 seasons.

Gotcha, I took that last sentence to mean a prospect haul might be able to sway your opinion.

Different injuries, none of which having been nagging like Donaldson's calves. He's also seven years younger than Donaldson. If MN is willing to go $21M annually I'm inclined to believe Buxton can reach something near that AAV, even if it's a short (3-4 year) deal. Perhaps injured, and that's the gamble on either side. I'd be much less concerned about a decline in his 20s.

I'm with you up until that last sentence. My fear is that a return for Buxton or Berrios buys this FO another 3-5 years. If either is gone (particularly Berrios) what little chance they have of competing in a bad division disappears. I don't think the reward for being bad/terrible in years 5 & 6 should be patience regarding prospects. It'd be different if Falvey + Levine had sustained success in other areas, maybe some patience would be warranted, but I don't think we're in this current situation if that were the case.

Doesn't Buxton's displeasure with the back end protection kinda signal that the escalators in this offer might not be that great, or at the very least relatively attainable? That's a tough sell if you're already starting from a very low base. We just watched the Twins of all teams sign Josh Donaldson to a $92M deal at age 34, following his first healthy season in three years. It's not a perfect comp, and obviously Donaldson had an earlier run of success that Buxton hasn't touched, but he was, and still is, a significant injury risk. I don't think it's a stretch to say in 3-4 years Buxton could earn what the Twins are offering in 7.

That's true about the escalators/incentives, but if I'm Buxton, why would I rely on hitting some of those when I can have the money guaranteed. I get that the Twins offer possibly (hopefully) went over that $15M base with relatively attainable escalators but there's nothing stopping other teams from simply guaranteeing the lower end escalators/incentives and structuring their own higher end escalators. Would you be surprised to see offers with a high AAV and a short number of years? Personally I wouldn't; I could see him making $70-$80M in 3-4 years. At that point I don't know why he'd want to lock himself into 7 years, unless the Twins' escalators were not only easy to reach but also lucrative.

That's a pretty attainable base in FA. I imagine that's relatively close to Buxton's floor in these negotiations. I'm most interested in what his counter to 7/73 was. I think that'll give us a much better indication of where this is going.

Ted is spot on. Signing one or both of Buxton/Berrios isn't the financial albatross we've been conditioned to believe it is. Also, consider this an official petition to ban the "they don't want to sign here (MN)," narrative. Until the Twins actually submit the highest offer, and are subsequently turned down that argument has zero merit. Find an alternative way to cope.

Pay market value to retain home grown talent at premier positions which lack internal options?

Colorado can make a similar claim as far as trade assets go, but I doubt we'd argue that they're a particularly talented team as a whole. Offensively, I agree; they've been somewhat disappointing, but they could still finish top 10. You can't run out two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball every week and have a bullpen this bad. That's a lack of talent, which reflects on the FO.

A disproportionate amount of that poor play belongs to guys the FO brought in for this season. It's hard to look at this staff overall and say "the talent is there."

Maybe Falvey truly sees a strong chance to compete in 2022? It's not inconceivable, but it'd be surprising given the number of rotation and bullpen vacancies, and the current injuries to arms in the minors. My guess is that ownership isn't super receptive to the idea of a full rebuild.

It's hard to imagine Buxton giving this team an inch after the debacle in 2018 but maybe that fence has been mended. I agree, I'd prefer a signing to prospects right now. I'm not sure what that would mean for Berrios, but...

Maybe you missed the point? TB's success is attributable to their ability to replace holes, not create them. You'll have to show me why I'm wrong for suggesting the Twins aren't on par with TB when it comes to the three attributes I previously listed.

If you're trading Berrios, how are you solidifying 4 rotation spots in a 2 year window and avoiding a rebuild? "Be the Rays," sounds great until you realize the Twins need to instantly become elite at talent identification, acquisition, and development, because that's how TB has remained competitive, not because they move stars before they hit FA.

I don't agree wit the OP. I also don't think the current state of the Twins is a single season of backing the wrong horses or plain bad luck. If this is the on field product in year 5-6 then my guess is it's a symptom of a larger issue. There's real debate about how right this FO has been on the players they've brought in, particularly when it comes to pitching. If we're crediting the FO for team ERA the last couple years, what's the answer for the hard regression we've seen from multiple contributors? Career years from Rogers, Duffey, and May covered up a lot of inconsistency in that '19 bullpen, and a 60 game schedule with 2/3 played within the division in '20 makes it difficult to ascertain much. I wouldn't ding the FO too harshly for the regression, but I do feel subsequent backlash should match the praise they received. This team has struggled beyond the top half of the rotation every single year this FO has been here. They got a pass early on when the team wasn't expected to be any good, but we watched Randy Dobnak start a playoff game. Sure, Pineda makes that start if he isn't suspended, and no FO can predict that happening, but your failsafe was a guy who had made 3 actual starts prior to that game. If the goal was to strike gold on the waiver wire or via minor trades we could've/should've seen something by now. I guess the jury is still somewhat out on the late round selections, but if that's what we're counting on to fill out the rotation I think it speaks volumes. I'm 100% on board with you guys when it comes to the difficulty in consistently replacing key cogs, and I've said it for a while. It's a flawed approach, and if you're struggling in the talent identification & development departments you get this season.

He lost me when he starting talking about outlawing protective gear and pine tar for hitters while simultaneously advocating for pitchers to "back guys off the plate more often."

I don't have a foot firmly in either camp right now. I'm certain any cost savings will be spun as $$ to throw at Berrios or Buxton, but I'm doubtful the Twins would pay the actual cost to retain either, regardless of Donaldson's status. If we're talking about taking $10-$15M annually in savings (chosen with no basis) and splitting it between 2 more back end fliers for the rotation, or trying to cobble together a 3B Platoon (Arraez + ?) and a low end SS is the team really better off? I think if you're moving Donaldson the return, whether $$ or talent, needs to solidify a position of need for multiple years. I'm concerned the FO is willing and able to do that. I understand the injury stance. He does feel like a bit of a time bomb in that regard. His history will certainly weigh into the decision but this all boils down to what direction they plan to go after the move.

He's allowed 71% of his inherited runners to score this season. I'm sure that's factored into some performance metrics already but it's a pretty atrocious stat line if we're talking about somebody as being above average.

We might be. Yes I think the '22 option is irrelevant as well. Yes I don't believe he'd survive the 40 man turnover if he were to make it to that point. No I don't see this years option as irrelevant. Yes I'm fine with him being shuttled. My stance on Burrows is that if you've handed a 40 man spot to a player like him then you might as well find out what you have sooner rather than later.

Sure, the first gaff was signing him, but failing to move on when it was clear he was of no value to the team in either the present or the future was a mistake in itself. Exactly, so it makes no sense for him to spend a bulk of his time in the minors and burn a year, particularly with a 40 man shuffle imminent. One option remaining isn't justification enough for holding onto a subpar reliever. If he's too much of a project to get innings for a team on pace to lose 100 games then he's not going to help next year, option or not.

They should. He isn't taking ABs away from anybody who needs them. Kirilloff can take over as the everyday 1B if Sano can't find some semblance of his former self, and the Twins aren't any worse off.