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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    There is a difference between falling to complete an important task and being an overall failure. I see the move to start the season with Dozier rather than acquire at least one future arm as a failure. That doesn't mean I think the new FO is in it's entirety a disaster.
  2. KirbyDome89
    I believe Einstein had a pretty famous quote about the definition of insanity. It seems very fitting in this situation...
  3. KirbyDome89
    "They'll be better because they have to be...." So tired of this defense for what was a poor offseason. Apparently at this point only losing 90-95 games is a step forward. A team that loses 103 games has more problems than just bad luck but if we wish hard enough and sign a couple guys to minor league deals it'll all just go away I guess....
  4. KirbyDome89
    99 it is then!
  5. KirbyDome89
    Gotcha, I was referring to above the average meaning "higher than." I agree, the more data points you have using the actual average the less impactful outliers (like the Twins staff...see what I did there) will be. Whether we call it .9 or .8 it rounds to 1 and thats terrible.
  6. KirbyDome89
    9/10 of a run above correct? I'm using the mean. League average was 4.18 and the Twins finished with a 5.08 team ERA.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Agreed, the D was horrendous and certainly didn't help. If only there was some way to fix these problems.....hmmmm
  8. KirbyDome89
    Compared to the league average, as a staff they were nearly a full run higher. I could have phrased that better. It doesn't change anything else in the post.
  9. KirbyDome89
    The pitching staff had the worst ERA in baseball by almost an entire run. Regression to even bottom third of the league isn't simple for this team. I wouldn't say that coming off a 103 loss season and remaining quiet during the offseason is an upswing. Also with a pitching staff this bad I think calling the rebuild complete is premature.
  10. KirbyDome89
    That has barely changed this offseason, yet they're on an upswing?
  11. KirbyDome89
    They went from winning 83 games to only 59...if they're moving in a direction right now its a backswing.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Are you saying you're fine with moving him in the last year of his deal for a Mejia type pticher?
  13. KirbyDome89
    Dozier is 29 so I don't think the age gap is really that relevant. In the same way that I don't think Dozier is as bad as that stretch from the end of 15' until the middle of 16', I also don't believe he is the player we saw at the end of last season. That isn't holding anything against him.
  14. KirbyDome89
    The only way this was absolutely the right decision is if Dozier repeats (or improves upon) the second half he had last year and the market for 2B suddenly booms. I'm not holding my breath waiting for either to happen.... It would be one thing if they were in talks with other teams at the moment, but if all they can do now is bank on the above criteria and sell us optimism about Dozier leading the Twins to a strong start, I can't see this as anything but disappointing.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Its good to see that the Sano pitchfork mob is making an early return this year....
  16. KirbyDome89
    Idk if I'm buying that they're reluctant to trade Dozier because they fear backlash from TR loyalists and some potential negative PR but if that truly is a factor in the decision making process then maybe I need to lower my expectations for this new regime.... Realistic trade expectations and opportunity cost have to merge at some point. Holding onto BD does nothing to help this team when they should actually be a contender. If the Twins are watching Dozier walk in 2 years then they've failed.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Sure its an assumption, but don't think its a leap to say that adding one of the best pitching prospects in baseball to one of the worst starting rotations will help. I think that is a safer assumption than saying that holding onto Dozier is the right move because he'll continue his career tear, the 2B market will swing in his favor, and his value is at its lowest. I never said I wouldn't like other players back alongside JDL, but if this is the best offer they're going to get then its something that needs to be seriously considered. Holding onto Dozier does this team no good right now.
  18. KirbyDome89
    JDL might not be Kershaw, but he certainly would help one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. Rebuilds aren't completed after one transaction. Moving Dozier for a solid starting pitching prospect would be a step in the right direction.
  19. KirbyDome89
    That depends on the context in which you view the trade. If they walk away from this deal and end up trading Dozier at the deadline for a lesser package then it was a good deal. Like I said, we need to be realistic about his value moving forward. That isn't to say they need to take this deal now, or that nothing better could come along, but you also have to consider the likelihood of that happening. If the Twins are going to wait until they're blown away by an offer for BD, then they're likely going to end up holding onto him until he walks in 2 years and that would be a mistake.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Sure you are. Demand does drive the market. Part of demand though is appeal. Coming off a 40+ HR season and on a friendly contract for 2 more years, Dozier has a lot of appeal. If he starts next season like he did 2016 or even at a level somewhere between the first and second half of last year, and you combine that with the loss of almost a full year of team control that luster of appeal begins to fade. You're assuming his value can only go up. What if this isn't the valley but rather the peak of his value. You're also banking on the market for a 2B to change considerably as well. It could all work out (I hope it does) but I don't think its unrealistic to look at the current offer and think it might be the best they get for Dozier. Personally I would like to get more for him, but everybody who is so staunchly in favor of the Twins walking away also seems to be ignoring the risk they take by holding onto him. I find it difficult to believe that this is as easy of a decision as some think.
  21. KirbyDome89
    You might want to check the ages and salaries of that Cubs core. I don't think anybody is thrilled with JDL + small pieces for Dozier but I also don't think its unfair to ask if this might be their best offer. If the list of teams in the market for a 2B is short and this was the best offer the Twins could get for Dozier at his peak value then I agree with the previous sentiment that we need to be realistic about what kind of package he'll bring back. By holding onto Dozier you're banking on him repeating his career year through the first half, the market for a 2B expanding, and a contending team deciding they're willing to pay more for 1.3 years of Dozier than they were for 2 this offseason. That seems like a lot to ask for.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Paying $18+ million for a one year deal and giving up what is essentially a late 1st round pick isn't appealing. Add to that the fact Bautista is a 36 year old who is coming off his worst season since 08', and at this point is only a DH, which is already an overcrowded position. It makes no sense.... His numbers at Target Field are cartoonish but if he is wearing a Twins uniform that means he no longer has the luxury of hitting against one of, if not the worst, pitching staffs in baseball every time he steps into the box there.
  23. KirbyDome89
    I think you just answered your own question.
  24. KirbyDome89
    "The Twins could wait until the trade deadline and hope there are more teams willing to deal away their top talent. This would also require Dozier to continue to play the way he did in the second half" Please lets not....
  25. KirbyDome89
    "His reliance on tailing, spinning pitches around the edges of the zone will make it hard for him to ever develop an efficient approach to dispatching hitters, and Berrios could still easily wind up in the bullpen." Given the depressing state of the current rotation I'm not sure I could handle this....
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