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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Hammer meet nail
  2. KirbyDome89
    Again, this isn't about spending just to spend. I've been clear about that. We'll chalk it up to a difference in philosophy.
  3. KirbyDome89
    The Twins pitching at the MLB level is $%&$ing garbage. Gonsalves had another should flare up. The Twins insist it isn't it isn't a big deal, which means he'll land on the DL sometime midseason with a serious injury as is typical Twins fashion. Jay is now a non-factor for the future of the rotation. Stewart can't strike anybody out. Its all concerning, including Gordon now playing some 2B. As a whole it makes the loss of the #6 pick from the rotation that much worse. I have seen very little, if any argument against him pitching from the bullpen. I think the timing is curious but I don't have a massive issue with the switch. I'm not sure why you seem so perplexed as to the concern expressed over losing a potential starter. Its a BIG deal. Right now the house is burning to the ground and the hose to put it out is losing water. People should be concerned....
  4. KirbyDome89
    The fact that a new FO made the decision to move him to the bullpen doesn't change the fact that he was drafted to be a starter. No longer having the #6 overall pick as a potential candidate to fill a rotation spot hurts....a lot.
  5. KirbyDome89
    It absolutely is. The available payroll is what they decide to make it. The idea that this franchise can't afford to pay a player $20 million per season moving forward is where people start to lose me. They're definitely a mid market team, but they prefer everybody to treat them as if they're small market. They're sitting at a little over 30 million dollars under the league average team salary right now. Mauer comes off the books after next season. MLB revenue continues to increase, meaning more sharing is generated. Somehow despite all this the Twins payroll has been decreasing over the last few seasons and now they can't even afford to hand out a contract close to Mauer's without drying up the well? I think the reality is that it is just easier to believe that this franchise can't spend above an imaginary line because they've refused to do it for so long...
  6. KirbyDome89
    Thanks for the FO update... I must be misreading the posts defending the selection of Jay at #6 then. The criticism of the move is about what the Twins thought he was going to be when he was drafted and where he is now. When you select a player #6 overall with the idea he'll be a starting pitcher and two seasons later he is going to be in the bullpen full time that is a bad selection at that spot. If he becomes Andrew Miller as some have stated then sure, the pick doesn't look so bad, but that isn't the case right now. To me, that issue isn't in the lease bit moot/debatable.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Not sure where that implication came from but yeah I know. If baseball was capped then yeah it would. However, its the same thing I said in a earlier post; they're moderate players in FA at best so a large deal shouldn't change how they're operating. That big signing only "hurts," them as much as they allow it to. Do I believe they'll spend that money? Not a chance....
  8. KirbyDome89
    Of course I agree, if they're ripping it down there isn't value in the 3-4 year window. The signing is only viable if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, ect take more steps forward and it looks like a core is forming. I get the prospect volatility aspect, but they're also necessary. Not all prospects are created equal and its often the elite ones (lowest chance to bust) that must be moved to bring back established talent. No, nobody misses Hicks, but those deals go both ways as well. I'm certain the D-backs would redo that Miller/Swanson trade in a heartbeat. If they had a glut of young talent in the minors or if they were a respectable MLB team then yeah it would make total sense to me to deal some prospects for a starting pitcher. I just see the Twins lacking in so many areas right now that for me, spending cash to keep some of the talent they do have is the lesser of two evils.
  9. KirbyDome89
    So they drafted him at #6 because he had the "stuff," to be a front of the rotation piece. Now they're moving him back to the bullpen because he doesn't have the enough of a mix to be a starter. But this doesn't look like a bad pick and the move doesn't have any negative impact on future rotations? Hmmm....those don't seem to mesh. I'm not sure which is more taxing; the mental gymnastics performed to rationalize the move or the physical toll from bending over backwards to defend it.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Performance risk doesn't discriminate between a trade or FA signing. Yes, the last years of big contracts rarely are good years, but they also aren't counted on to be stellar seasons in terms of performance. No team signs a player to a seven year deal and expects all those seasons to be elite, its just like you said they're paying for roughly 3-4 years solid performance and the rest of the contract is the price for those good years and keeping their young talent. Personally I would rather the Twins use cash instead of prospects to bring in talent. The rebuild is centered around drafting and developing (insert joke here) players. Giving those players up via trade feels a lot like robbing peter to pay paul. If they were a pitcher away from a WS then I could understand it, but right now they need all the young talent they can get.
  11. KirbyDome89
    I think a lot of the push for signing a front of the rotation starter IS about how the money is spent though. The Twins have been moderate players at best in FA, I don't think that has to change if they open it up and sign an ace type pitcher. Given the current state of the pitching staff and performances by pitching prospects it isn't crazy to think the only young arm they have with a chance to be that #1 starter is Gonsalves and hes still a long shot. They need to do something to fix this horrendous pitching. They've been unable to move Dozier and if they refuse to dip into the market to sign top tier FAs the only other option for bringing back top end talent is trading away their own top young talent. Personally I would rather endure a 7 year 150 million dollar contract than watch former Twins prospects turn into quality major league players with other teams.
  12. KirbyDome89
    No? It isn't an expected outcome which is precisely why I don't buy the idea that they were just on the wrong side of luck. Its obvious the chances of being swept in three straight series are extremely low. Its a .2% chance of losing that many games in a row. If somebody is going to point to the reason for all those losses as simply bad luck then like I said before, they must be the unluckiest team in all of baseball. I agree you'll never see a line like that for a playoff game. I have no idea what the lines were for those games (too lazy to check) but I'm sure they should've won at least a couple during that 9 game stretch. The argument isn't that they were 0-9 bad or 3-19 bad, its that given the percentage chances or reaching those records, the idea that they were just "unlucky," seems ridiculous. IMO other factors (inferiority compared to competition) played a large part in their hapless postseason performance.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Agreed; at this point given how bad the staff is, refusal to sign a FA difference maker leaves them with no choice but to trade for one. Moving an established vet (DOZIER!) for a front end prospect is most preferable but yeah as painful as it would be to give up prospects (especially pitchers) it might be the better alternative to wait/hope all the prospects work out.
  14. KirbyDome89
    I get not wanting to drop big cash on a FA pitcher, and I agree that the back of those contracts rarely if ever work out, but I don't know if I see another way in which this team as it stands can legitimately compete for a WS. Of course I would rather they develop front end starters and fill out their entire staff from within before looking outward but how realistic is that? There is a large push to build in that regard and I agree with it, the problem is that by the time they've established a pitching pipeline (if they ever do, they are the Twins...) the team could be looking at players like Sano or Buxton walking ie the window suddenly closing. For the long term obviously they need to focus on scouting and development, but if we're talking about putting together a solid playoff pitching staff to coincide with the rise of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, ect I just don't know if there is enough time to do that via development before those players are at the end of their contracts. I feel like if you're banking on being able to build a pitching staff in the next few years without spending for an ace then nearly all of the young pitchers in the minors are going to hit their ceiling as well as the Twins finding gold in a trade a la Jake Arrieta. That is a lot to ask. The end of big FA contracts suck, no doubt about it, but if they can use a contract like that as a bridge until they actually establish a pitching pipeline then I'm all for it.
  15. KirbyDome89
    I think I would feel too guilty taking your money if we placed a wager on a Twins vs. Yankees 22 game series... Since we're on probabilities; do you know what the percentage chance of the Twins being swept in three straight playoff series is? A lot less than 1%. They're either one of the unluckiest teams of all time or they weren't at the level of their playoff competition. I would agree with the latter. Nobody is making the point that a 3-19 record is impossible and that deviation to the mean (a TD favorite) couldn't happen, it just seems highly unlikely that in a game where a player/team can exert so much control physically on the outcome that a team like the Twins is just "unlucky," that often. I'm not sure why all these one game playoff comparisons are popping up. The one game wild card didn't even exist during those playoff years. They participated in play in games as a regular season tiebreak and those games aren't included in the 3-19 record.
  16. KirbyDome89
    On the flip side I've never liked the argument that the Twins were the victim of bad luck in the postseason. Since that last series win in 02' they're 3-19 in all other series. Those aren't those ridiculous one game wild card set ups either. I just can't subscribe to the idea that these were great teams but every year they just succumbed to bad luck once the calendar turned to October. That record speaks for itself. Even if the playoffs are a crap shoot as you've described then their odds would still be 50%. To say its just bad luck seems off the mark. I've never heard anybody say those weren't good teams, but when they consistently fail to get out of the divisional round (not to mention getting swept their last three appearances) it takes some of the luster away from those division crowns.
  17. KirbyDome89
    My thoughts exactly. The problem is I can see this as a realistic scenario....
  18. KirbyDome89
    I'm trying to find some way to blame Sano's weight for this.... I'll get back to you guys...
  19. KirbyDome89
    Careful....I hear warning points are assessed for this discussion....
  20. KirbyDome89
    Gotcha, the innings angle makes much more sense. Given Molitors bullpen usage I would say you have reason to worry. Honestly I would go with the "Pick em," group for reasons already stated; you have a revolving door available if usage or ineffective become issues.
  21. KirbyDome89
    "Would you rather see a guy like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi or (insert your favorite of the Twins 46 relief prospects here) getting abused in a mop-up role in the majors or pitching in the back end of the bullpen in the minors?" I'm not sure I understand where this argument is coming from. Is a a guarantee that any of the above options are destined to struggle through a sharp learning curve? I think not, but that is what seems to be implied and if that is the case, then wouldn't you rather have them take their lumps in a season like this?
  22. KirbyDome89
    ^^^^^ How about "What to make of the Twins offseason,"......Yuck
  23. KirbyDome89
    That Tim Stauffer comparison isn't helping to make sense of the Park DFA.... If one of the relievers is getting the boot i would rather see Boshers go and Tonkin stay.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Likely a better bet
  25. KirbyDome89
    Rosario is safe....Dantana too unfortunately....
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