KirbyDome89

Personally I think KC, given their financial constraints, executed their window perfectly. Idk if it's so much a market inefficiency as it is inept management and cheap owners but I feel like that's another conversation. The trade would've made made in order to do just that though. It isn't just an extension beyond FA in 2022 or 23' that the Twins have to worry about; those guys are all hitting arbitration in a couple years. A comp pick would be fine if Dozier leaves, but that player isn't likely to provide any short term value either.

If JDL is an above average pitcher in a few years and the Twins continue to struggle with putting together a rotation that can actually win a real playoff series (they've done nothing to suggest they won't be) it'll be a giant black eye... No chance LA or ANY other team offers a package like that for Dozier...

I would say they are truly desperate, especially given the money it's going to take to keep the core together. That dollar is relative. The Twins can assign any price they please to Dozier, but if others teams don't meet that price it doesn't mean they're offering $.80 on the dollar. I agree, teams were lukewarm on Dozier for those and other reasons, but isn't that an indicator that the Twins were asking possibly asking too much?

If that comp pick could make an immediate impact I might be able to get on board with that, but it's highly unlikely that pick contributes before Buxton and co. reach arbitration.

If your focus is only 2017 then sure. If you're concerned with building a staff and still being able to pay all your young position players over the next 5 seasons maybe you reconsider that stance.

Innings can be managed smartly throughout the course of a season. What about 19'? 20'? 21'-23'? You realize making that trade isn't about only 2017 right? So JDL + C- single A prospect gets it done for you?

If you're cool with a rotation that features Gee then enjoy struggling to make the one game playoff and watching prime years of talented young position players be wasted by a rotation that is at best a dumpster fire.

You don't build playoff teams by refusing to sell veteran players nearing FA because you've assigned a value that nobody in the league is willing to pay. You don't build playoff teams by stocking your rotation with middle to back end guys and propping them up as front end starters.

So you're cool with Dillon Gee and the 10 other AAAA pitchers rolling through the 4-5 spots in the rotation? You don't build playoff rotations by turning down the best offer you get for the best tradable asset you have.

You don't make that trade thinking that JDL immediately produces the same value as Dozier. That should be obvious. He has more value even though 16' > 17' and he has one less year left? I don't know where people are getting this.... They need to have the talent in order to develop it. They don't seem to have it, and even if they did there isn't much of a track record to suggest they could do it. They aren't going to spend real money on front end FA pitchers. They either trade the few valuable vets they have, or start gutting the farm and/or trading some of the core. I would rather see the vets go... You think TB is interested in a one year rental for JDL? C'mon....

If we're having this discussion one year ago at this time it would be Berrios in question. Yeah, a one game playoff was nice, especially after last year, but unless they do something drastic to improve the pitching, the best they can do with the current group might be a one game playoff or early postseason exit. That would be a shame given how promising some of the young position players look.

So don't trade for prospects? Every MLB player is one injury away from ending/derailing a career so should they be taken off the list of options as well? There is assumed risk on both sides of the trade, but it seems only one is being acknowledged. Again, how else are they finding pitching they're willing to pay for?

That rotation that "made the playoffs," got to a one game wild card and was rocked. You don't think JDL is an improvement over Gibson, Gee, Mejia, Colon, or any of the other 20 something starters they trotted out? It is debatable, and it'll be a mistake if they're overpaying in FA for more back end Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago type pitchers in order to cobble together a rotation that gives them a shot at the postseason but no real chance of advancing.

That's a big reason why I was on board with the Dozier trade. I don't think people realize how difficult it's going to be to put together a staff that is capable of actual playoff success.

If JDL busts and the Twins start spending money on front ending pitching then yeah it'll look like a good move. Neither of those things have happened. Like I said, if you're calling it a win right now it's because you want to, not because it actually is.

Isn't it possible the Twins asking price was high?

Yes, pedigree says better. His floor would be a back end starter. 12-15M is what they're paying for that back end starter on the FA market. Quite a bit less expensive to shell out the league minimum to a young player.

Not even remotely the same thing Brock.... They had a chance to trade a player from a position of depth and at peak value and they decided to pass up the best offer they received. A good number of people seem to think Dozier is suddenly more valuable or that he'll be more in demand even though his 2017 < 2016 and he has only a year left before FA. Extremely unlikely. What are they doing with Dozier? Extending him and tying up more money? FA starters are expensive. Good bullpen pieces are expensive. All the young players that got them to that one game wildcard are hitting arbitration in a couple years. This team doesn't operate on a high payroll. They had a chance to snag a young, cost controlled, front end upside pitching prospect and they didn't take it. I disagree with the logic.

quality > quantity Bringing in multiple prospects of a lesser caliber as organizational filler does nothing for this team right now.

I wouldn't put him in the 4-5 range right now but for the sake of argument we'll say he is. That's 12-15 million per year they just saved. Throw that money and more at a front end starter. Bring in some actual relief arms. Bringing in young, cost controlled pitching helps in more than more way.

And if that borderline elite player decides to walk?.... They tried finding better prospects, JDL was the best offer they received. If they aren't interested in paying value for high end prospects then cross off the trade market as an option for bringing in real pitching help.

Ervin has compiled years of stats to tell you he isn't an ace pitcher. That isn't myopia. He happens to be the best option in a terrible rotation. That doesn't make him an elite pitcher. That is the same group of scouts responsible for all the pitching on the field and drafted the past 5 seasons. I honestly hope the new FO wasn't/isn't leaning hard on them for pitching recommendations...

They can? Who is making that offer? Why is he suddenly more valuable coming off a lesser season and with only one year of control instead of two? What pieces? They have the real Ervin (not the April-May .98 ERA Ervin) and Berrios. After that it's nothing but question marks, inconsistency, and AAAA pitching. That isn't a staff anywhere near actual playoff contention.

How else are they going to acquire front end starters or pitchers who at least have that potential? Yes, it's a risk but the Twins aren't paying for that pitching in FA. They don't have anybody right now that projects as a strong front end starter, and they have 0 history of developing any pitcher like that.

You seemed pretty comfortable writing him off due to injuries, Idk how to take that other than he's a bust to this point. Agreed, they would've taken heat. I think we can also agree that this FO isn't making decisions based on fan/media approval ratings (they shouldn't be.) I understand it's an unpopular opinion but honestly Idk how this can be a "win." Dozier can walk after next season. If the idea is to trade him, his market was lukewarm after a career year last season, and I don't see the Twins suddenly getting an offer that'll blow them away this offseason coming off a lesser season and with one less year of control. They NEED pitching. Not just back end rotation pieces signed in FA. Those guys might get them to a one game wild card or even the ALDS but they aren't winning playoff series with rotations like that. We've watched the Twins waste MVP and Cy Young talent with subpar rosters. I don't want to see a promising young core exit the playoffs early or fail to make them altogether, because the pitching staff is a disaster. They had a moveable piece at a position of depth and they had a chance to bring in a pitcher with front end rotation potential. I get that I'm in the minority here, but unless they're giving up prospects (which they'll need to keep unless they're planning on a KC like contention window) they aren't going to acquire those types of pitchers, and certainly not for that many years of control. Is it a "win," in the short term? Yes, they made the one game wild card and Dozier was a big part of that but I'm not putting a ton of stock in that. A short playoff appearance this season was a pleasant/unexpected surprise but it shouldn't mask just how uphill the climb to building a playoff caliber rotation is. I feel like they missed out on a chance to do that.