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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    I think the contract gives a relatively accurate ballpark of what it would've taken to keep him. The speed with which he signed the extension + report(s) that MN was nowhere close to those numbers kinda starts to pick apart the notion that what he was seeking in negotiations with the Twins was vastly different. I understand the lotto ticket/cap allure, but I have almost no faith that it'll be spent in full, or if it is, that it'll be spent wisely.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Can you point to operational moves the Twins have made, in the same vein as TB, that have turned out as favorably? Moving Pressly is probably the closest they've come to selling high. Are you thrilled about Alcala after this season? I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated on this site; TB's success isn't predicated on transactions, it's based on their ability to identify and develop the talent involved in them. Are you equally as high on the other big trade Oakland made that offseason? They finished in last place each of the next three seasons following those moves, while Donaldson put up more WAR in his first season with the Jays than all of the pieces Oakland received combined during their A's tenure.
  3. KirbyDome89
    I'd imagine getting to face a pitcher 2-3 times through the lineup might also skew some counting stats no? If durability is an asset (it is) why are players that pitched less than half of the innings Berrios did during that 5 year span being tossed out as legitimate comps? Also, doesn't fWAR incorporate FIP? Why isolate xFIP-?
  4. KirbyDome89
    "What MN was willing to do was far from this." That's ahhh, not good news for anybody still convinced this is a "reset."
  5. KirbyDome89
    Early years are expected to be the best. That's what teams are buying in FA. Should we be shocked that removing prime production years from the aggregate doesn't yield desirable results?
  6. KirbyDome89
    Happ, Shoemaker, Martin Perez, Colon, Hector Santiago Off the top of my head I can't think of a single buy low starter that has worked out in the last 5 years. The issue is twofold; this FO isn't good at identifying candidates that actually bounce back, and the production necessary from those candidates has trended upward.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Odds that they're able to move him without eating any of that $50M? If the Twins are eating half of that and the remaining $$ allows them to go an extra year or higher AAV to land a top SS I can get on board. If they're going to use it on a couple SP stopgaps in the $10-12M range while they "reset," then I'll pass.
  8. KirbyDome89
    The same one I made in my original post. Your definition of reasonable is one that slants in favor of the team, and the implication from the above quote is that players who aren't willing to take a discount, or negotiate from a position of low leverage aren't being "reasonable." I'm sure teams aren't starting at their ceiling either, such is a negotiation. Desmond was one of, if not the best, SS in baseball for the 2 years leading into Washington offering him an extension below what his piers at the top had secured. That's proving the point I'm making, no? How often do we actually see high end players lose out in FA? Honestly. Even in the Desmond example you cited, it took a massive down year, a historically awful offseason with rumors of collusion, and even then he was able to spend a year in TX, and parlay that into a 5 year $70M deal with Colorado, recouping nearly all of the original offer from Washington. Boiling it down to "Boston did it and they generate X revenue," is overly simplistic IMO.
  9. KirbyDome89
    ...just like I wish Berrios was willing to accept a reasonable offer. Sometimes players won't accept a reasonable offer and it becomes necessary to trade them... What implication should be drawn from that statement? Well, the Boston details were facts, not a rant. What's the parallel to MN?
  10. KirbyDome89
    Reasonable in this context seems to imply the players need to take a discount, and in some cases a severe one. A marque franchise in a major market offered 20% below the next highest bid to a generational talent because ownership refused to wait to get under the luxury tax. I don't see a strong parallel here.
  11. KirbyDome89
    What gets me is that they merely have the opportunity to splurge on a pitcher who profiles similarly. It's far from a foregone conclusion that they'll acquire one through either FA or a trade.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Due to his finger injury or strange usage patterns early in the season, Dobnak never got on track in 2021. He barely pitched post injury, nearly all his awful performance came prior to either IL stint. He also was used the exact same way in '19 when there were threads wondering aloud whether he could be an All Star. We need to let of the misuse and injured narrative when it comes grading how Dobnak performed in 2021.
  13. KirbyDome89
    He's been AAAA at best over the last 50+ innings. We need to move away from the notion that Dobnak's struggles the last 2 seasons are due to injury.
  14. KirbyDome89
    I still think the teams that would trade for a full year of Buxton are likely to give up more than a team that's trading for 2-3 years of Kepler. If those guys were set to hit the open market today, it's not even a discussion who would be more valuable.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Barring perennial MVP finishes, a certain percentage of the fanbase assuredly will. Twins fans have been conditioned to hate spending, and rather than question the tight pockets of ownership or even how FO(s) allocate available funds, it's easier to blame Player X for whatever holes the team has. There's certainly risk with signing Buxton long term, and a logical argument to be made for not going that route, but IMO the potential reward, and most importantly for me, not having to watch miserable baseball (hopefully) for another 3-4 years is worth that risk.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I think you're conflating availability with affordability.
  17. KirbyDome89
    If they can't sign at least one high tier pitcher and address the bullpen I'd rather the $$ go towards the rotation and the team try to piece together a bullpen. They've had some success with that, and little with "bounce back," starters. I'll take the under on Pineda hitting 160 IP. That's essentially asking him to make every scheduled start. Balazovic should be up sooner rather than later. Aside from that maybe Winder if his shoulder issue really was fatigue and not any sort of structural damage. Even if that's the case, he wore down at the 70 IP mark, I don't know how much contribution should really be expected. Duran and Canterino have basically missed two seasons at this point and both could also be dealing with more serious injury issues. Neither should be counted on for anything in '22. An inability to throw strikes rather than actual injury shut Woods Richardson down. Maybe cross your fingers and hope his brief time in A ball with Toronto is rediscovered. I don't think the cavalry is as strong as some perceive it to be.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Agree with #3 completely. I desperately want #1 to be true but I have a hard time seeing a massive turnaround next season with the work that needs to be done on the pitching side. Lip service about the intention to compete next year aside, Buxton is the fulcrum that dictates which direction this team actually goes. Maybe we need to define flashy? 3/4 teams mentioned were legitimately fighting for playoff spots in September. People love to clown on SD for spending and not making the postseason, but they also played in a division with 2 teams that won 100+ games. We need to move away from the notion that being able to select the player(s) you want by spending the money necessary to gain their services isn't an advantage. Boston has the 3rd highest payroll in baseball. A single offseason vs. the Twins' doesn't tell us much. MN can hope to be the Giants and have a ton break right for them, but that seems like a lot of what the plan was going into this year too. I also don't think the number of players signed matters. We've seen the Twins "spread the wealth," i.e. bargain shop rather than shoot for mid/high tier guys in the past, and it hasn't necessarily gone well either. It's simplistic, but really it boils down to choosing players that perform.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Because having a utility player in house is more valuable than not having one? If Gordon doesn't absolutely kill it in September he easily could've been a roster casualty. I just don't see running Simmons out there to play OK defense worth what's potentially being given up, regardless of what Gordon becomes.
  20. KirbyDome89
    I doubt (hope) the Twins strategy wasn't to continue to run Simmons out there every day to tank his value, at the expense of playing Gordon, so they resign him at a discount in the offseason. I believe the roster spot and subsequent playing time being allocated elsewhere was pretty valuable, so my disagreement is with the notion that the Twins weren't receiving anything by "giving Simmons away."
  21. KirbyDome89
    I don't see Gordon/Polanco/Maggi/whoever for 2 months as a disaster. Maybe it starts and ends there, but I'm certainly not arguing for "fielding the worst f***ing fielders." This isn't an A or B situation, it's not Gordon vs. "insert young pitcher here." I'm not making Gordon out to be anything other than a potential utility guy, the disagreement is with how the audition opportunity was used, and the rationale for why it was limited. I think the argument that average SS defense for 2 months is more valuable than a potential utility player for multiple years is weak. Simmons comes up to bat with RISP, makes weak contact to end the inning, takes the field and boots a transfer or throw, the opposing team has a big inning, and the pitcher leaves with his head hung. We've seen that a few times this year too, I wasn't worried how it'd affect the young arms, and I doubt you were either.
  22. KirbyDome89
    They're paying that contract regardless of whether he's soaking up valuable innings in MN and playing horribly, or being a black hole on another roster. We don't need to overthink it, the money was gone, the question was whether the playing time was more valuable for Gordon or Simmons. I'd imagine the young pitchers have had defenses behind them that aren't MLB starting quality during their develop track. I'm also positive that they could all be evaluated apart from subpar IF play. Two months of Gordon/Polanco/Maggi/whoever at SS wasn't going to affect the futures of Ryan or Ober, but it certainly could've had an impact for Gordon. I'm as baffled as you are when it comes to how he was handled in the 2nd half.
  23. KirbyDome89
    I know they don't view Gordon as a long term SS option, but rather than send him down in August because there apparently wasn't enough room, that problem would've been solved simply by moving Simmons. Polanco was there to step in and play simply below average SS if Gordon was so awful the team couldn't have him out there. Again, Simmons was getting paid either way, who cares whether it's with NY or MN? The evaluation of Gax, Barnes, Ryan, Ober, ect doesn't change, for better or worse, whether it's Simmons or somebody else at short.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Simmons' contract was a sunk cost. Even if the move simply cleared a roster spot, it was worth it for the Twins. The only defense for continuing to play him was agent relations/future veteran signings. Well, problem solved. There were better uses for the ABs and defensive innings.
  25. KirbyDome89
    If there was no contact, or NY simply didn't want him regardless of price that's another story. Short of that, it's questionable at best from the Twins standpoint.
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