KirbyDome89

You're arguing semantics. Teams are paying for a track record of MLB success, even if it's a limited one. I don't have solid numbers off the top of my head, but I'd imagine that as far as volatility goes, prospects are very likely the higher risk commodity. Boiling it down to "nothing is a sure thing," and equating SD's rotation to the current state of MN's is a stretch to say the least.

I'm not making a case for Montas specifically, but in your scenario he's a known commodity in the sense that if the Twins were to deal for him, they're expecting 2ish production based on a track record, albeit limited. They're giving up a set of players with zero major league success who themselves have minor league warts. Nobody is arguing a Cy Young finalist is coming back. Using a farm system to graduate players incrementally and supplement an existing framework is, of course, utilized by every organization. Throwing 5-7 arms (including Ober and Ryan) into a rotation that's Dylan Bundy and nobody else isn't remotely the same thing.

Sure, and for every one of them there are 100x as many guys taken at, or above, their draft positions that wash out without making any sort of impact.

You're also receiving a known commodity of equivalent value. My point was that they can audition plenty of guys while adding a stable rotation arm; the two aren't mutually exclusive. Sure, FA was an abject failure, but that shouldn't be a rationale for them to eschew other means of acquiring talent. In other words, the prospects are the fulcrum on which the FO will pivot towards either a full on rebuild or actually committing to supplementing the roster. I think that's more of a stall/half measure than an actual plan.

There's nothing stopping the Twins from "finding out what they have," while simultaneously adding proven talent. If they end up with 2 frontline guys that's more than lucky; none of this group profiles as such. Rather than holding them accountable, we're giving the FO a pass to waste a season while waffling about which direction to go.

So because the Twins chose to sit out FA, and trading for one frontline starter doesn't solve all their issues, the answer is to cross fingers and do nothing? Waiting for the stars to align is a great way to ensure it never occurs. If the plan all along (a rather convenient shift of the goalposts/distraction from recent failures) was to graduate prospects then it'd make more sense, not less, to have some sort of stability around which these prospects could be integrated. I doubt the Twins make a move for anything close to a frontline SP, but that shouldn't be spun into some kind of positive about preserving the future.

Their $500 weekly salary isn't pre-tax, dude. If we're accounting for actual hours worked then I have no doubt many fall below their state hourly minimum. You, for obvious reasons, shifted to the federal minimum, which 3/5 of the country has moved on from. Payments on a used car + auto insurance + gas take a massive chunk out of your $900 monthly surplus if "average," is the standard we're applying. Add utilities, renters insurance, and any other unexpected/emergency expenses and your "spartan lifestyle," ceases to be about budgeting and becomes a necessary tool for breaking even. Before we travel down the road of "don't own a vehicle," "carpool," "spend $3 + change per meal," I'll say it again; these "solutions," serve only to highlight the actual issue. Grown men having to rely on 3 or more roommates to scrape by on groceries, pay rent, or find transportation to and from work is the problem. You're still drawing massively false conclusions from the Rays' spending habits, you've just rephrased the same talking points. I don't have an economics background, but a profession with a fixed supply (jobs available) and ever increasing demand (said jobs becoming even more sought after) doesn't seem to jive with an hourly wage hovering around minimum. It's almost as if some mysterious force is artificially depressing these wages....Well, it seems as though we've found something we agree on; exploiting cheap labor is a deed as old as time.

Ah yes, the federal minimum, no controversy there. I guess we'll set aside the fact that the $500 is pre-tax and assume the players aren't putting in more than 40 hours (unlikely) which still leaves us at $12.50 per hour, or Minneapolis minimum; i.e. a s*** wage. We get it, soup kitchens, workouts on the beach, squeezing multiple grown men into a single bedroom, on and on. There are a million ways you can "budget," yet these "solutions," only address the symptoms, not the underlying problem. Ninja'd on the bonus spreading. We'll ignore that a 5 game swing very well could determine whether a team makes the playoffs. The Rays' on field success isn't because they don't spend. That same lack of spending shouldn't therefore be taken to mean that they're privy to some data telling them that paying a fair wage to minor leaguers isn't a prudent investment. Do I believe that spending $4M, what teams piss away on washed vets + other camp invites, would go a long way in making the lives of minor leaguers more "livable?" Absolutely. Is anybody arguing that teams will save $30M annually by doing so? Not by a long shot. There's the possibility that added care/attention yields better results, and worst case, these players start earning wages they've actually earned. I have zero faith that billionaire owners/investment groups, who benefit greatly from a system skewed in their favor, are willing to concede even a sliver unless forced by pressure internal, external, or some combination of the two. They've made that much clear. Churning through candidates while offering substandard compensation because the pool is ever replenishing is textbook exploitation. "Entry level," is a convenient misnomer to hide behind.

Exceptions prove the rule, no? Minor leaguers needing to use a contact to gain backdoor entry into alumni fitness centers doesn't solve the problem, it highlights it. We can come up with an endless number of "solutions," where MLB shrugs responsibility onto others, but that's not addressing the issue of why a multi-billion dollar industry is paying at least 50% of their minor leaguers sub minimum hourly wage. The same Rays team that cries poor, but rather than spend competitive balance revenue, opts to pocket it? They won't even pay their major league players, but you expect them to fairly compensate their minor leaguers? There's no need to conjure up some big brain argument about why teams won't invest, the answer is staring us in the face. MiLB players are being exploited, and once upon a time you were too.

Do I see them as options (Gordon only in another totally lost season?) Yes. Do I believe the Twins do? No. What's the controversy? Please, Gordon couldn't get reps at SS despite the season being over and Simmons being the worst offensive player in the league. I hope Polanco is, and if/when Lewis debuts at SS I'm right there with you cheering him. His only decent offensive output in the last 4 years was the season he juiced. I really don't care about early careers numbers. We aren't going to agree here. Why are we fixated on a washed vet signing a minor league deal? I have no doubt the Twins start someone else at SS opening day, but that was never my point right? Precisely why I bolded the part about perspective. I've said my peace on depth vs. bodies. Maybe you're right and Beckham is plan D,E, or Z. I hope so....

I think I've been pretty clear that I don't feel it's likely the Twins plug any of those options in at SS. Martin, Lewis, and Gordon seem like pipe dreams and I don't believe the team wants to move Polanco off 2B. Beckham hasn't even played in the majors the last 2 years, he juiced in '19, and he wasn't close to an average hitter in '18. Maybe we have different definitions of league average. They gambled on a Cave bounce back and lost last year. He was solid in '18 and '19. Right now, yeah, he's bad depth. Beckham's had a longer career, at least at the major league level, but I'd stop short of calling it better. If he was coming off a run of three year run (2018-2020) like Cave was last year then maybe this would be a different conversation, but you've already acknowledged his defensive issues and the I guess we'll agree to disagree on his offensive prowess. What do I want out of depth players? Be part of the team's plans moving forward, or have some sort of plus quality that aids the team in the present. I don't see Beckham doing either. Yeah, I don't see them signing a starting SS and a utility player capable of covering the position, at least with Gordon and Arraez on the roster. Do you? Honestly, are you convinced they'll move Polanco or reverse course on the prospects? They still need to spend on at least 2-3 rotation arms plus the bullpen. I don't know why the scope for a backup SS needs to be narrowed to the discard bin. Other avenues exist. I gave you options on this team that would be better in one way or another. I'm not digging through 29 other rosters + farm systems to compile a list of replacement level SS, or arguing what FA IFers are available/willing to play part time. If the validity of anything I've argued is predicated on said list than you win.

Whoever they sign or trade for, Polanco, Martin, Lewis, hell even rotating Gordon through if we're going full tank mode. That's 4-5 names on the team that do more for the Twins present/future than Beckham. It certainly could be. Of course, that's why you find a utility option, or ideally turn to someone in house. Sure, Refsnyder cratered in the 2nd half after returning from injury, and maybe he's a bad example, but he was also option D behind Buxton, Cave, and Kepler. If that's Beckham's role, option D, then fine, it's already a dumpster fire by that point. Nothing the Twins have done or said suggests any of the prospect options are in play, we can hope they're willing to consider moving Polanco. That leaves us with an option B who has been a below average defender at the position the previous 5 or so years. The last time he was on a major league field (2 years ago) he was getting popped for PEDs, and the season prior to his usage was on par with the Refsnyder career OPS you dislike.

Again, the issue is the role. If the Twins are willing to plug in Martin/Lewis at SS, or move Polanco it's a different story, but those options seem unlikely. As it stands, Beckham is a tweaked hamstring in April away from being the starting SS. If he's in AAA all year and truly just minor league filler then it doesn't matter. Your Plan B, particularly at SS, should be actual depth, not just a warm body.

He's a negative defender in both corners, and you can't K 33% of the time and rock a sub .700 OPS if that's the case.

I don't doubt offers can be similar but ultimately it's whoever flinches and throws in the extra year, $5M, ect that wins the bid. Even in the scenario you posed, money is still the deciding factor.

Depth isn't just a body to plug and go. Rob Refsnyder was depth, he could step in and hold water. Dobnak or Thorpe, that supposed first line of defense for the rotation, weren't depth, they were just bad. All depth isn't good depth right? There's fat that can be trimmed from the 40 man if the Twins choose to do so, but more likely injuries will allow to them to avoid making any such decision. Seeing as how the Twins opted to bring Cave back, despite how bad he was, I'd argue he probably does have more of an inside track. To be clear, I'm not claiming the Beckham move impacts who starts opening day at SS. If a guy like Beckham is supposed to be a last resort ("depth") but the only thing standing between him and the starting SS position is another low ceiling potential bust then he's not really a last resort. We saw this with the pitching staff last year; guys were put in position(s) where the team needed them to punch above their weight and when they couldn't it was a disaster. Has anything this franchise done during the offseason struck you as a move that a team determined to compete in '22 would make? I'm not arguing that former major leaguers have no place in the Twins' system. I am saying that low ceiling/rock bottom floor guys with clear paths to playing time do nothing for the present or the future.

No. Ever as in, when does a player receive two identical offers?

When is that ever the case though?

The primary source of consternation at the time of the Cave deal still exists today; he has an inside track to getting innings as the 4th OFer. Rooker doesn't look MLB caliber with the bat or glove, Larnach needs to show some sort of ability to handle off-speed pitches plus his corner D, at least in LF, is suspect, and Celestino was nowhere close to ready last year. The Twins showed no interest in signing a RH 4th OFer during the pre lockout FA. That doesn't mean they won't, they've got plenty of money, but time and options aren't on their side. Barring a major splash at SS, Beckham's only roadblock (if he isn't awful in STP - big "if,") to getting innings at the major league level is a middling journeyman SS a la Simmons. It's highly unlikely we see Lewis in the majors this year, let alone at SS, and Martin seems destined to find a defensive home elsewhere. In isolation, if the signings are about bringing in JAG to be minor league depth then sure, whatever. The issue is that they're seemingly a realistic step or two away from "filling," a couple glaring holes on the major league roster, at least currently.

No. If the Twins start offering top dollar and continue to lose out on FAs, then we can start to talk about culture/geographical location.

He ramped up by a similar rate from '19 to last season. Ober is going to turn 27 this season, and he profiles, at his ceiling, as a back end starter. I'm not advocating for the team to be reckless, but at this point I think they can let go of at least as much rope as they did last season. If injuries are an issue, as they have been during his career, (including the end of last season) then a spot in the starting rotation might not be in the cards.

I think they push Ober to at least 150 IP assuming he stays relatively healthy. You can't have 2/3 of your rotation locked in with 120 IP (4ish innings per start) caps, with Bundy + another oft injured vet + prospects dealing with their own injuries/restrictions expected to pick up the slack. I don't know if there's any amount of creativity that can make up for the innings or talent deficit we're talking about running out onto the field. As a side note, I feel like the innings restrictions on a lot of the prospects calls into question how much actual "development," at least at the major league level, we'll see.

He was rather polished college bat when the Twins took him in '18. I know '20 was a wash but I don't think getting him ABs last season was rushing things. Ideally, "older," players should move more quickly through the minors. His debut was great, and then he wasn't able to make necessary adjustments. That's not uncommon, especially for young players.

I think this FO prioritizes "value," to the point of being detrimental at times. They've made long term offers, only to come in well under the winning bid(s). Injuries are part of the package when it comes to developing pitching no? If they're investing so much of the future into these young arms, they don't get a pass when those guys almost inevitably miss time. They didn't seem to have much interest in paying Berrios, and he clearly was "affordable." Barring a steady stream of high end rotation arms from the minors, it'll take a change in their approach to "value," or their attitude towards FA, for the "sustainable," aspect of winning to work out. I don't feel they've shown a willingness to do either, which makes me question whether a prospect pipeline was the plan all along, or if it's merely the most viable way out of the corner they've backed themselves into.

It took intervention on the part of ownership and a willingness from Buxton to sign a team friendly deal for the organization keep him. The FO was ready to move him at the deadline. I'm not sure his contract is indicative of anything. The Twins aren't getting a return for Donaldson, they'll literally have to pay another team to take him. As it stands, he's a solid stop gap until there's some clarity with Arraez/Miranda/Martin. 2022 has been labeled a "retool," "developmental year," "reset," ect. but that's with the caveat that they see massive returns from the prospect basket they've placed all their eggs in. Have they committed to a full blown rebuild? No. Have they set themselves up to do so? Yes.