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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Yes, the market was certainly was down; Darvish moved from 6/160 to 6/126 and JD Martinez "settled," for 5/110. Teams are adjusting their approach to FA but $$ is still being spent; Wade Davis just signed the largest relief contract ever and Eric Hosmer somehow was able to coax an eighth year out of San Diego. It's fair to say most FAs didn't get exactly what they were looking for, but the upper tier players still walked away with significant deals. Lynn just isn't anywhere near that group and I think that the interest/offers he received reflected that. Yeah his career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but his 2016 TJ surgery followed by a 2017 season where he posted a career high 4.82 FIP, a decreased SO rate, an increased BB rate, and a HR rate that nearly doubled in the NL makes me nervous.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Odorizzi was acquired straight up for Palacios, and Lynn wasn't fielding interest anywhere near the level he'd hoped for. MN isn't pulling one over on TB and the rest of the league with these acquisitions. There are reasons the Twins were able to bring these two in for "virtually nothing." They each have question marks after their respective performances last season. Yes, they're better than Mejia and Hughes, and I said as much in an earlier post, but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. I gave the FO credit for pivoting and solidifying a starting rotation that badly needed it, but I'm not going to pretend like either of these two are front end talent. Realistic would be a better adjective for those who don't share your confident outlook.
  3. KirbyDome89
    Darvish. That back half of the contract is usually rough, but I think it's almost universally accepted at this point that you view the last few years as payment for the expected immediate production. We're banking on Lynn and Odorizzi reverting back to better form. Morrison has to prove he's the guy who slugged an OPS+ of 135 last year, and not the guy who has been about average the 5 years prior to last. Of all those players I think Darvish is the safest bet to have the steadiest and most productive season. Barring injury, I think Chicago can reasonably expect X amount of production out of him. I don't think the same can be said for any of Lynn, Odorizzi, or Morrison. They're all question marks when it comes to this season. Look, the FO did a nice job adding depth to the starting rotation this offseason. If this was plan B after Darvish, then count me in. Lynn and Odorizzi aren't sexy but they're better than Mejia and Hughes. At this point I think more has to go wrong than right for the Twins to not be in the WC hunt, which is a big step from where they were a few months ago. That said, it's still a rotation full of mid to back end guys. I was hoping for more quality than quantity.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Not exactly exciting, but for one year it's hard to complain. Short term, "value," deals seem to be the MO of this FO. Hopefully the long term $$ is being saved for a slew of extensions for the core.
  5. KirbyDome89
    That's a fair point. If you could assure me that the $$ saved on a Dozier deal would be allocated entirely towards an area of greater need (hello starting pitching,) then I would be much more receptive to the idea of letting him go. I bring this up in a lot of threads, but they've put all their eggs in the development basket so I feel like every move this club makes hinges on what happens with the current core of players. How many of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, ect are sticking around past 21' or 22'? If all or a majority of those guys decide they're going to test FA what are the chances the Twins are willing to sign even half of them? It's likely in the best interest of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios to test FA, and depending on how Rosario and Polanco perform over the next season or two they might find themselves in that same boat. If a good portion of the current core is gone within the next 4-5 years, the Twins might be better off trying to maximize they currently have, and I think retaining Dozier is a step in that direction.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Exactly. He's so much more valuable to a good team. IMO the decision to hold onto him after losing 100+ games a few years ago, and the decision to let him walk now that the Twins look like they're opening a window of contention conflict. I'm all about building from within, but if we're being realistic the chances of any MI prospect stepping in and replacing Dozier's production are slim. I've read other posts that suggest other players aside from Gordon or whoever ends up at 2B continue to improve and pick up the slack, but wouldn't the team still be better off with Dozier + the improved supporting cast? The spark notes version is that it isn't as easy as just plug in prospect X and everybody improves so the team rolls along. If the Twins are serious about trying to win while Buxton, Sano, ect are all still under rookie deals/early arbitration then it's going to a hell of a lot easier with Dozier than without him.
  7. KirbyDome89
    He has been consistently inconsistent. I'm not sure why we're supposed to put more stock into a handful of games against bad teams and expanded rosters rather than almost 2 years of entirely underwhelming pitching.
  8. KirbyDome89
    There's a difference between working to get a good deal, and flat out lowballing. Also, insulting offers do exist. I've spent a decent amount of timing buy/selling motorcycles and parts. I never offer the asking price, nobody does, but I'm always aware of market value for bikes/parts and I'm careful to make sure that my offers, while always slightly in my favor, aren't egregiously one sided. Say I offer $3.5K cash and leave myself wiggle room up to $3.7K in negotiations before I bow out on a bike listed at $4K. That's very different than offering $1,200 or some other number well below the bike's value. Honestly, those are the kind of lowball offers you receive via text because the individual is either too embarrassed to ask over the phone/in person, or they know it's a long shot and they don't want to waste their time talking. At that point I ask the same question raised above; why bother? The market this winter is clearly depressed. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Twins trying to take advantage of that, in fact I think they should, but to me 2/20 feels more like a text offer, and Lynn obviously felt the same way.
  9. KirbyDome89
    "Value,".... Joking.... Kind of....
  10. KirbyDome89
    This. 1) Dozier leaving is a big loss offensively. It isn't as easy as just plug in Gordon and the bats keep rolling. 2) Are we sure most if not all of this young core will be here after 4 years? If they're going to be "too expensive," then I'd rather pay Dozier and maximize the current window. 3) I understand letting him walk saves $$ but Mike made a good point above. What are they going to do with that money?
  11. KirbyDome89
    Not that RBIs are particularly telling but he has basically driven in 100 runs from the leadoff spot each of the past few seasons. That number would jump significantly if the Twins decided to hit him in the 3 or 4 hole. He has been delivering for a while now.
  12. KirbyDome89
    There have plenty of moves to question this offseason but letting Gimenez go isn't one of them.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Meh, I think a healthy Chargois is a better use of a 40 man spot than Kinley or even Sanchez. Kinley belongs in AA. Sanchez should be on a minor league contract and he's coming off a string of terrible seasons. I wouldn't make a habit of giving up a healthy pitcher with real upside while holding onto guys like the two mentioned. Chargois has his own flaws but he's a better pitcher than a few of the guys on the 40 man.
  14. KirbyDome89
    I'm cringing at almost the entire rotation to start the year. The Twins are banking on A LOT of things to work out in their favor. Scary....
  15. KirbyDome89
    FWIW Chargois isn't hurt. When the Twins placed him on waivers the prevailing sentiment was "can't pitch from the trainer's table, the guy is always hurt...." It's true, he has dealt with injuries for a good chunk of the past few seasons, but right now isn't one of those times. MN tried to sneak him through and they got caught. IMO that's a mistake. There are others on the 40 man who are infinitely more expendable.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Burdi and Chargois. As the 40 man stands now there's no reason Chargois had to go, and Burdi wouldn't have even needed to be added back until the end of May.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Injuries. Nobody wants to see them and there's no such thing as good timing but they're inevitable. I would love to see some of the young arms have a chance to throw some MLB innings before they're 26 y/o fringe 40 man decisions. Obviously all development rates are different, and injuries in the minors can halt progress. However, you never know how long an arm is going to last, and having young, live arms on the major league roster gives the Twins the best chance to maximize the return on their investment.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Oh for sure, I don't think anybody thought Dozier was going to hit 40+ HRs again. Idk if the FO is banking on Morrison hitting 30+ HR this season, but they must think he's going to be significantly better than he was the 5 seasons before this last one.
  19. KirbyDome89
    In terms of potential value this seems like it could be a good deal. I'm not sure they needed another DH/1B and I was hoping the bat they added would be a RH OFer. It might be an unpopular opinion right now, but I think they could've got production out of Vargas similar to what we could expect from Morrison this season, but for a whole lot less $$. If Morrison mashes again this season he's a clear upgrade over Vargas. If he has a season similar to any of the previous 5 seasons before this last one I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade.
  20. KirbyDome89
    A solid rotation?
  21. KirbyDome89
    If you're talking about the FO making comments about Sano needing to get back to game shape this ST following offseason leg surgery then we're in agreement. The Twins and Sano should be focused on that. There was no way he was going to be able to show up to camp in the condition either side would have liked. This FO hasn't made any comments about what a healthy weight for Sano is, and they certainly haven't touched on whether he'll be able to continue producing into his late 20s and early 30s. That was your addition to thread, and that was what I objected to.
  22. KirbyDome89
    The timing is very convenient. It's curious that the criticism is often heightened when he is most vulnerable, i.e. unable to defend himself with his performance on the field.
  23. KirbyDome89
    This is the crux of it for me. I don't care for the obsession with his weight, especially when numbers are thrown around with no basis. That in and of itself is irksome, but I think you touched on the larger issue, which is that those assumptions about his weight are then used to question character.
  24. KirbyDome89
    You're moving the goalposts. Are we really going to pretend like he was going to be a long term fixture at 3B? The guy has had documented issues fielding the ball almost since MN signed him. That wasn't the point though. The point was that you're professing to know what a healthy baseline for Sano is, and then you're using that to forecast the future. That is pure conjecture but it's being thrown around this thread as if it's fact.
  25. KirbyDome89
    This is exactly why I called his weight a boogeyman, EVERYTHING negative is attributed to it. We're stretching back years now to associate a hamstring pull, a very common injury amongst all athletes, with his weight. His weight, not the fact he was playing severely out of position, is why he struggled in the OF. Also his weight is the reason his 2016 season wasn't a continuation of his torrid 2015 call up. No athletes in other sports have reported out of shape after being laid up for months following surgery? What? There is no history, and there are no comparisons; we're talking about an individual person.
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