So what I've said this entire time.
That's a rather convenient height to set the bar at. If the Twins make the WS in 3/4 years, and currently look like one of the best teams in baseball, we're worshiping at the alter of Falvine. That seems far from failure from where I stand. I've never said it suddenly becomes different, but conversely you'd expect that Yankee team to handle Baltimore with ease and take 60-70% of those games. That edge doesn't suddenly disappear because the calendar flips to October.
No, I'm not searching in vain for some hidden formula, I'm pointing out the obvious; better teams carry an advantage into the postseason, and for a team like the current Twins, who aren't on that tier, it isn't simply a matter of "get in and flip a coin." Their battle is uphill.