KirbyDome89
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Everything posted by KirbyDome89
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I guess we'll just ignore the fact he's frequently unavailable, i.e. the point being made.
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The bargain bin SP signings (Archer and Bundy) haven't worked out. Pagan and Paddack were rebound candidates; Pagan hasn't and we know the Paddack story. I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries. Did they expect 150ish innings from him? The rest of that pen...woof. Staff construction was shaky from the jump. Then there's the pipeline, i.e. the reinforcements that were supposed to be pushing some of the projects aside. That's been a disaster. Hope, misplaced confidence, oversight, call it what you want, the reality is they gambled on 3/5 of the rotation + a contingency plan revolving around prospects, and neither have really shown up. Lucky for them they play in the AL Central because there's a decent chance they'd be selling if they were in any other division.
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I'm suggesting this team desperately needs established major league pitching for this season and beyond. You need to give in order to receive; only parting with potential 40 man casualties and clinging to depreciating assets isn't the remedy. They decided to cross their fingers and hope this year, that can't be the approach again, especially with what's going on with the pitching prospects. Failing to recognize and/or capitalize on opportunities is another great way to show yourself out.
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Thats the beauty of playing in the AL Central in 2022; you can be incredibly flawed and still lead the division...
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So count on Ober to suddenly shake the injuries and give you 150 innings? Paddack is available for half the year at best, Maeda turns 35, and we're banking on both immediately post TJ? Which version of Alcala are they getting? Winder was just shut down again with a shoulder issue that has persisted for a year now. Sure, we can call Dobnak and Smeltzer depth, but the reality is they're AAAA guys, at least as starters. Ideally the depth would come from the much hyped pipeline, but ahhh yeah, we've seen how that has looked to this point. Essentially you have them shuffling the deck chairs + the FO committing big money/years to a front line SP. It just feels like asking for disappointment on both fronts. "Not horrible," shouldn't be the bar to clear for a starting SS on a team that's looking to compete. The Twins need to sign an actual SS, at least for the year. The plan can't be to hold water and hope Lewis can take over midseason after recovering from his 2nd torn ACL. The off chance that 6+ players hit their absolute best case scenario next year doesn't seem like a viable reason to stand pat and not improve an obviously flawed, but division leading team this year.
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Or effective. This is the 3rd time in less than a year Winder has been shut down with a shoulder issue. It seems unlikely to resolve itself without intervention. Maeda is going to be 35 next season post TJ, and he wasn't exactly lighting it up before getting injured in August. Paddack was a reclamation project of sorts prior to TJ. We're holding onto 20ish innings to close last season as the "real," Alcala vs. his erratic 40ish innings to start the year.
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Why are we assuming the FO is currently willing to pay market rate and not hunting value? The Reds could certainly be overplaying their hand, but this FO isn't exactly aggressive when it comes to paying for arms.
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If it was the additional year and not the AAV that scared them away, then it makes some sense. I'd imagine it was probably both given his injury history and the FOs refusal to go in on pitching. Rodon also holds a player opt out which further complicates things. I don't know why teams like SF or Baltimore, who are 3 or so games back of the WC, are looking at selling players like Rodon or Trey Mancini. It's not a great look, and if I'm a fan of either club, I'm pissed.
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You'd rather they were Detroit? I just don't get this take. Sure, be annoyed with some obvious and brutal flaws, but I'd rather watch them in October than slog through another meaningless September.
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CLE and CHI have their own dumpster fires to put out as well. CLE had the division lead not that long ago, and they immediately gave it up to this Twins team treading water. If we have to be concerned, I'd give the edge to CHI, but I don't see them getting out of their own way. This is the Twins division to lose, and they're certainly capable of doing so. I just don't see another team getting hot and rolling them.
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August starts next week. What you see is what you get with him; 4ish innings and a roll of the dice as to how effective those innings will be.
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He started June with a 5.19 FIP and ended the month at 4.90. If you want to argue semantics, then you win. Let's ignore his unsustainable numbers, control that suddenly disappears, or the fact that he's forcing an already undermanned bullpen to consistently carry 5+ innings.
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The "should the Twins trade Correa," threads are gonna be spicy after this one. Buckle up y'all.
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It isn't the pitch counts so much as the control that seems to absolutely disappear somewhere between the third or fourth inning. His early season numbers were unsustainable; the bullpen woes have only magnified that.
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When this was termed a "developmental year," I didn't think that meant exclusively in the minors...
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But the fun is just beginning
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Disingenuous? Have you watched Archer this year? He literally runs into a wall nearly every start. Early in the year they could let him go 4 and if/when he got himself into trouble there were 4-5 arms that could at least get 3 outs and bail him out. Now? The Twins have maybe 2 reliable arms. The regular season is a marathon; you can't hide guys for an entire year. We're seeing in real time what happens when you do.
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I think it's already gone. At some point (hopefully soon) this FO needs to be more concerned about what Archer in the rotation is doing to this staff, than whether or not he's happy moving to the pen.
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Watching these changeups dangle over the middle of the plate is high drama....
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This is the Archer experience most days. The bullpen has just burned down to the point that the Twins can't hide Archer's short starts.
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They're only paying him $3M though. Great value for that $$$.....
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These same Twins were also 11 games over .500 at one point. Yeah, they've been treading water for the last 2 months but Cleveland and Chicago have been 2-4, 3-4, and 4-3 all year. What about either of those two teams suggests they'll pull off a run like MN did to start the year? Don't get me wrong, the Twins have plenty of warts and I have my own reservations, but I just don't understand the faith some seem to have in either CLE or especially CHI suddenly getting their s*** together enough to take over the division.
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I think people are just being realistic about what Ober is, a back end rotation guy when healthy. That's ok, and you're right, if the Twins find that out of nowhere (not a prospect on the radar) that's a W, but his inability to stay on the field from his time in college to now severely limits that upside. Right now last season's 100 inning mark looks like the exception, or at least the max, and even then it goes unmentioned he was hurt to finish the year too. Ober doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt as uber prospects (think Buxton) because his ceiling isn't something the Twins are incapable of acquiring outside of the organization.
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Backup QB syndrome. What's funny is that his most glaring issue, an inability to stay on the field, doesn't seem to ding that perceived value much. Pitching starved fanbase yada yada, but Pineda looks like an iron man in comparison.
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Trade Rumor: Twins still linked to Frankie Montas
KirbyDome89 replied to Otto von Ballpark's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You feel great about guys like Povich or Festa being major contributors, or are they just next on the list? This is what, year 5 as a pro and year 4 playing for SWR? Yeah, he's young and I'm not advocating for giving up on the guy, but he's struggling during a repeat of AA after being shut down because he was performing so poorly last year. If you're not going to commit to high end pitching then you need to be developing it, at least semi consistently.
