mike8791

Ted, if we are going into the year with "no more important player than Reed", that is a damning indictment of the FO. It is a must for a potential contender to start the season with a proven closer; otherwise, they can dig an early hole for themselves not only in the standings, but in the dugout. Not signing a proven closer is an abdication of the FO's responsibilities to the fans and team, pure and simple, but right now that is the state of the Twins entering the second week of January with the top FA closers going elsewhere(assuming Kimbrel is out of reach). This inaction is simply unacceptable to a fan base that has been patiently waiting almost a decade for a return to relevance.

Stop the presses!! Blake Parker is now a Twin. Of the 5 new players added, only Cruz was a FA; the others were all DFA pickups. On a decidedly mediocre LA staff, Parker was DFA'd. Now the offseason is about adding filler players, as well as improving the roster. Taking a flyer on Cron, Schoup, Torres or Parker is certainly a legitimate offseason option. But to count on all four to contribute in a big way is simply foolhardy. The Twins bullpen is unsettled at best with no clear closer. Parker will most certainly not be that person. To rely on Reed, May or Romero is a sure recipe for digging a deep hole early in the year. Remember Ron Davis. Nothing demoralizes a team as blowing late inning leads. Nothing!! With the number of FA closers dwindling to the unaffordable(Kimbrel) or more the hope and prayer type(Cody Allen, Greg Holland,et.al) there's not much left, I'm afraid. Sure the Twins could get lucky but isn't that what the FO is supposed to do in the offseason? Fill the obvious holes to elevate team performance, not rely on hopes and prayers. If the Sox could find money to sign Herrera, why do the Twins settle for the bargain basement? Totally bizarre, enough to throw real doubt on the true abilities of the Wonder Boys.

Doc, I hear you! We'll never know if Falvine was in on Robertson, but they could have offered more $ and the closer's role - something he's not getting in Philly! Giving the FO a break, maybe Robertson's three seasons here in Chicago and the cold, made the east coast too tempting to pass ....but Philadelphia!!! C'mon. The good news is that Neshek and Hunter are now expendable! The Twins probably couldn't resist another one year value-driven deal if the Phils contributed some $. This type of addition, IMO, is now much likelier than Ottavino(a Brooklyn boy, btw) or Herrera who I think is the lowest risk, best value left among the remaining FAs. But he is just too logical for the Wonder Boys to grab. They are more interested in showing the baseball world how clever they are in grabbing a diamond in the rough no one else ever considered. Ah, hubris!! Don't you love it.

Robertson just signed by Phillies for 2 yrs/$23MM!! A very reasonable contract, even for the Twins. Now the FA reliever market will accelerate. Yanks reportedly all in on Britton(good - they can have him!!). If this FO is serious about a substantial bullpen upgrade, they better be on the phone with Ottavino's and Herrera's agents. IMO, pretty steep dropoff after that(assuming Kimbrel is a lost cause). After these three, and perhaps Allen, not much closer material left. And please, please, please ........ no more talk of Romero in the bullpen. He is arguably the only near term minor league starter with front-of-the-rotation potential!

Thanks guys for all the great ideas. They have certainly crystallized my thinking into stating a few preferences for the bullpen: -Initially I,too, preferred the two FA signings of the "second tier", Ottavino and Herrera, at the top. Spreads the risk a bit more and more importantly, allows for Twins' internal parts to develop under less pressure. Just too worried about Roger's overuse last year, Reed's injury and his falloff on return, May's long injury history and Hildy's miserable flop as a closer. -But reconsidering the above, put me down for the signing of Robertson to slot into the closer's role immediately. A closer is the Twins real need going forward and I have the most confidence in Robertson. Two year contract would be fine, but a 3 year one, if ncessary, should be made available by a FO wanting to stabilize this bullpen for more than one year. It will probably take an overpay to induce Robertson to the TC, but he's worth it, IMO. He has maintained a high K/9 which is the surest sign of a successful closer. Herrera's late season injury , and Ottavino's erratic year-to-year performance, makes me hesitate on these two(maybe one can be counted on but two is a crap shoot so picking one of thetwo to be the closer could be risky). Of course, if a miracle occurred and the Twins could ink both these guys, all the better. I just don't think this FO has the b...ls for this move. So add Robertson, maybe one outlier from Chris's list and I'll take my chances with the rest of the pen. I think we can all agree, however, that if the FO does none of this, we're looking forward to another year of treading water. Should be an interesting six weeks before ST! Go Twins!!

Chris, appreciate your comments. To respond: 1. The Giants should trade Baumgartner given their aging roster, declining performances, and very tough division. Whether their new GM will be so inclined is another question. From reports I read, chances are more likely of him moving at trade deadline rather than now. Still, it's worth the phone call. 2. Greinke represents a twofold problem: his large contract($30MM/year over next three years) and his no-trade clause. Still, depending on how much $ the Dbacks throw back, the loss of prospects would not be nearly as steep as for a Thor or Wheeler and what good is our "stacked farm system" if we don't use it? Greinke is, like Baumgartner, a long shot, but if the Twins brass truly wants a contending team this year, they have to take a good shot at one of these guys. 3. Keuchel, while not costing prospects, would cost a high draft choice. More importantly, he seems to be holding out for a 5year contract at probably somewhere near $20MM a year. For a "midmarket" Pohlad-owned team, this is simply too high a price to pay long term, especially with the impending need to sign some of our own core to long term contracts. He slipped badly last year and thus, I would vote a strong no unless his asking price drops considerably. 4. Likewise, a big no on Gonzales who at 33 has a diminished FB reportedly not topping 90mph. He is a lefty and can probably fall within the Twins budget but for a lower ranked starter, I'd rather put my money into the bullpen. We have enough internal candidates for the #4/5 rotational positions. It's a #1(and probably#2) starter the team sorely lacks - almost a necessity for going deep into the playoffs. 5. Rolling the dice on someone younger like Bundy might be a play but why would a rebuilding Oriole team jettison him? It would take a haul of our best prospects, probably including a Lewis or Kirillof, to snare him. With Bundy's ERA never breaking 4.00(and last year at 5.45), he's not worth the risk of decimating our top prospect list. Now if a top package of prospects could fetch a Snell or Snydergaard, I'm all for it!! This whole discussion is probably a moot point, as I'm afraid our new FO is as risk adverse as the old one(except in mid-summer starter-for-prospect trades). They've filled some holes but even these fillers come with big question marks, adding to the many other questions in our lineup and staffs. I just think we have to reconcile ourselves to another year of wait and see. Ugh!!

Assuming the Twins have "limited" funds this offseason, my preference is to address their biggest need, the bullpen, first. Hopefully, this would result in signing one of the proven closers or two of the second tier of FA's. The value of adding a #3, 4 or 5 starter is highly doubtful, IMO. They already have enough of those and the southpaw Mejia is most likely to fill the lefty role as a #5 starter. What the FO should be doing, if they were to go all in, is to find a starter to slot in ahead of Berrios, Gibson, et. al. This would entail a trade that would result in trading some real assets. For a young, controllable pitcher like one of the Mets big four, yes, Lewis or Kirillof, would have to be part of any trade, along with someone like Kepler and a couple of our top rated minor league pitchers, perhaps. Since the likelihood of that ever happening is remote, I would turn to a short term solution like Greinke or Baumgartner for the next year or two. Both Arizona and the Giants are in a rebuild mode and would be much more willing to accept far less than it would take to get one of the Mets' top starters. If the Twins could add such a potential "ace", along with the aforementioned bullpen upgrade, the 2019 Twins would look like a genuine contender, not a pretender. Any bets on whether this scenario enfolds?

So now that the home town nine have apparently filled their glaring lineup holes, our thoughts (and hopefully Flavines') should be turning to the 2019 bullpen. Let's examine the team's options: 1. Stand pat and hope there are enough internal options to build a reasonably effective pen. This is not as far fetched as one might think, given the performance of Rogers in 2018, the re-emergence of May after two injury-plagued years, a healthy Addison Reed, and a well-rested Hildenberger who hopefully can snap back from a woeful second half performance last year. Add in some other potential dependable arms like Magill, Moya, and Vasquez and on paper this could be an improved pen in 2019. Throw Romero into a late inning role and the possibilities for a much improved bullpen are enhanced. 2. Go for the best proven closer on the FA market and call it a day. Any of the three top candidates - Kimbrel, Britton, or Robertson - would immediately step in as the closer. Although not risk free, each would represent a sizable upgrade over last season's opening day closer, Rodney, and give all Twins fans the confidence that the FO has taken a significant step forward towards contention. Looking at each of these three, Kimbrel seems to be out of reach given his six year contract demands. As good as he is, investing big sums in a reliever does not make a lot of sense for a team with as many question marks as this one still has. Robertson would represent the best investment assuming a maximum 3 year contract. Britton with his injury history would probably represent the highest risk, but has a huge upside. The Twins can afford to splurge here if they have to. The question is : will they? 3. The Twins can set their sights lower and go for one or two lower-priced FAs who while not proven closers would still likely be a significant upgrade. Ottavino, Allen, and Herrera are the cream of the crop in this second tier. Chad Allen is a risk after a poor 2018 stint, but this falloff would lower the price enough for the Twins to afford another of his caliber. Herrera and/or Ottavino would appear light years ahead of any current Twins bullpen denizen. Signing any two of this group would send a clear signal to ther team and fans that this organization is serious about contending in 2019 at a cost not much more than $20MM/year for two. So which of these three categories would you select? The Twins have certainly strengthened their offense in the offseason. A rebound season by either Buxton or Sano would be another big step towards competing in the Central, at the very least. The rotation, while not spectacular, looks like it could be pretty solid if things break right. Only the bullpen is shaky and the pieces are there in free agency to fix this hole. Just a matter of FO resolve. If they just nibble at the edges here, it would be a sure indicator they are not serious about contention in 2019.

In this oh so boring off season, too bad we have to generate our own ideas rather than critique the FO's moves. But that's the reality so here goes my two cents: 1. For a team to advance to the playoff level they must rely on all three resources: trades, FA and player development. 2. Assuming this org is still trying to be competitive in 2019, they must realistically assess the most glaring holes to fill and concentrate on those. For better or worse, they've evidently filled their immediate holes at 1B and 2B. While maybe not of championship caliber, their OF is in decent shape(nice to have a backup in the possible case of another Buxton flameout), catching is also fairly well manned, and the rotation might be viewed as a strength, at least compared to previous years. But big holes do remain(in descending order): Bullpen(particularly late inning relief); DH/cleanup hitter(for confirmation, just look at the final stats for the Twins best hitter last year, Rosario); and an ace, shutdown starter who slots in ahead of Berrios, Gibson, et. al. 3. In looking at the Bullpen, clearly FA seems the most opportunistic route to take. Why give up prospects in a trade when the likes of Robertson, Herrera, Zach Britton, Allen, Ottavino, et. al., are available. For possibly as little as $20 MM a year the Twins could add two quality relievers who would easily slot ahead of any current Twin relievers. This is a no brainer unless the FO waits for the price to drop some time in February, at which any "upgrades" will be far more problematical. 4. Moving on to priority #2, a real cleanup hitter, there are several options open, involving both FA and trade. First, as has been mentioned ad nauseum, Nelson Cruz, would make a welcome DH addition and all he would cost is $. A no brainer to many of us, but not to the FO as they seek the bargain bin. Arggh! But admittedly, there are questions on Cruz, mainly that he will be 39 in July. How close is he to the inevitable falloff? Most of us would take that risk but clearly, his signing is not a slam dunk. But at least he wouldn't cost players. I was all in on Davidson, as he would have provided a big bat and insurance against another Sano meltdown at third. No other FA come to mind to provide that sort of insurance and bat, but I would certainly be looking at trade possibilities in the persons of Castellanos or Ernacion - two flawed players but with big offense potential and having some positional flexibility. Neither player should cost top prospects nor in the case of the former, big dollars. Seattle would likely have to be induced to fork over some salary help with the downside of getting better prospects, but there is little doubt they would be willing trade partners. Unfortunately, Ernacion hasn't played 3B in years so he would be a DH/1B candidate only. Castellanos would be my choice here. 5. Lastly, I would try to nab a #1 or #2 starter. This is still a big void in our rotation, especially if we have any intention of going beyond Round 1 of the playoffs. There is obviously no FA still available who immediately come to mind so we'd look to the trade route. Here, I would do a full court press who have 4 starters who should slot ahead of Berrios. If Thor is still available(unlikely) he should be our first priority. Yes, it would take a lot, starting with Lewis or Kirrilof, one of top 3 minor league pitching prospects and one major league ready starter. I would offer Sano first, especially if we added Castellanos, but would substitute Kepler if that would get the deal done. Anyway, its fun to dream, especially in an offseason so bare of creativity!

If Kep’s a below average player, then why are so many teams interested in him?? Simultaneously, why trade Kep if he’s about to breakout?? And why attach Romero and Lewis to the very same deal?? This is the why I’m not a fan of trading for “Thor,” because they’ll “undervalue” guys like Kepler and Romero, but overvalue Syndergaard to the point where Lewis is has to be included. In other words, I think other teams are trying to rip us off, and why wouldn’t they?? I just hope the FO doesn’t fall for it. Chris, as one who advocated going all in for Thor( I actually proposed a trade including Sano, Kepler and one of our catchers - not Lewis or Kirillof), I must admit that it would be much harder to include Kepler rather than Sano. I say this because of all the tantalizing improvements Max seems to make, together with his lack of playing time before signing. Sano on the other hand, while showing flashes of greatness, carries too heavy a burden in terms of temperament, character and lack of conditioning to be able to count on as a core member of a contending club. But the real issue is how the trade partner values each player. No real way of knowing. I included both Sano and Kepler only because each is unproven as a potential all star and short of giving up one of our two uber-prospects, these two are the most likely major-league - ready players we have. Sure they would leave holes in an already porous lineup but to get an ace pitcher you must give up quality. While the Donaldson ship has already sailed, there are some 3B replacements on the FA market and even more for the corner outfield position. Yes, it would take boldness to trade two of our "starters" but a Syndergaard does not become available every offseason. As it turns out, the Mets' likelihood of trading Thor has diminished since the first flurry of rumors, so perhaps this whole topic is a moot point, but if a #1 or #2 starter can be pried loose(and signed to a long term deal), this FO should be making an all-out effort to complete such a trade. Aces don't come along often but when they do, a contending organization must take the risk(see Boston/Sale and Houston/Verlander). Why not the Twins?

Ted, always enjoy your articles - one of main reasons I'm a daily visitor to this site. But when I read the headline "Replicating Relief Success....", I thought this was a tongue-in-cheek headline. Do you really believe the Twinkies have been successful in developing relievers? C'mon!! This area has been one of the biggest failures of Twins teams, especially in 2011 - today. Last year we added three FA relievers and this year we should add another three from outside. With the sole exception of Rogers, this organization has utterly failed top develop shutdown relievers(and even Rogers has not had sustained success especially as a late-inning reliever). Hildy was absolutely a disaster last uyear, particularly in pressure situations) and May's "success" was very limited (26 IP in 2018). The rest of the bullpen is just middle inning filler material, at best. The list of failed draftees for the bullpen over the past decade is as long as my arm: Reed, Chargois, Duffy, Jay, Bard, et.al. Do you really think Kohl Stewart is the answer with his 92mph fastball and mediocre success in the minors? For the Twins to have a chance for even a decent bullpen, I think everyone sees the need for two top FA closers this offseason to slot ahead of Rogers and Reed. Even then, this is not a championship-caliber bullpen. It is disheartening how badly Ryan and company failed to develop any pitching despite having many high draft choices. And falvine has gone after positionn players in their two drafts, understandably, considering past disappointments from the Ryan era. Still, as things stand today, does anyone see an ace-in-the-making in the minors? Judging from the rankings, only Graterol seems possible and he has an awful long way to go. Hate to be such a pessimist here, but past performance in this organization provides little hope that difference-making relievers are on the way from the minors, especially not the likes of Kohl Stewart.

And that's the problem, Vanimal. This new FO seems totally adverse to trades. Other than the Odorizzi transaction, in which the Rays were clearly in a dumping mode, this FO has shown no imagination or risk taking to engage in meaningful trades - IN TWO FULL YEARS! Why is that? This offseason would be a good time to change this pattern, given the improvement in the Minor League system, together with a dearth of FA building blocks in the Twins price range(that's a whole other column, btw). To date, the FO this offseason has followed a pattern of picking up DFA players on one year contracts in the hopes they rebound to previous heights. Not a bad strategy if you have some bona fide lineup studs to build around. That not being the case, the Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from their tattered core plus these new one year signees. Isn't this like drawing to an inside straight? What it isn't, is a recipe for moving into playoff contention. Granted, the offseason isn't over. I fully expect the Twins to add a couple of bullpen options and maybe an OF/DH type and/or a #4 or #5 rotation filler, but will any of this really move the needle in 2019? Very, very doubtful and with the division seemingl;y more competitive, together with the Twins' payroll space and quantity of tradable minor leaguers, this conservatism on the part of Falvine is truly inexplicable. It sure would be nice to see some transparency by ownership and Falvey what their long range plan is here because so far it seems they have none - other than muddling thru.

Here's the thing that I already know is going to irritate the hell out of me... Even IF you want to accept that uncertainty over Buxton/Sano means you're not going to shell out money for any of the top free agents (which certainly is worthy of debate, but for the moment let's go along with it), the fact that you have all that money coming off the books means that AT LEAST you don't have to wait out the market and be satisfied with signing the guys still available in February. Yes, a lot of teams played that card last year and maybe even more will wait the market out this year. But because the Twins have way more payroll flexibility this year than virtually anyone else in MLB, they can afford to take the risk that they're going to "overpay" by some moderate amount to get the "best of the rest" in that tier below the really expensive guys. While the big spending teams are focused on the top FAs and the teams with budget issues are waiting for the market to shake out so they can pick up the guys who are still looking for jobs in February, the Twins could be getting their pick of the tier of players just below the big money guys. The FO should be identifying exactly who they feel are the best fits for their needs, based on whatever magic algorithms they've decided they like, and then go get those guys early, even though they would have to pay a little more than they would if they played the waiting game again. With so much money arguably available, there's no reason to pinch pennies all the way into February/March again. Well said, Mr. Buhr! If the Twins were serious about contending in 2019, they needed to identify their holes, fill them speedily before the market shakes out, and not wait for the annual Twins' dumpster dive. Their holes are glaring, no doubt. Bullpen, one ace starter(at least), 1B, 2B(or SS), DH/cleanup hitter . One obvious target was Davidson(arguably the best hitter in FA other than Harper/Machado) for cleanup hitter. Cruz for DH seems like the best DH around. Together these two would have given the lineup the needed significant boost. Instead, the Twins sign a highly mediocre filler in Cron. Why? Because he was DFA, so an easy grab. I, too, am afraid the FO will play around the edges again, seeking bargains - in a year where the Twins easily have $50+MM to add to payroll. They also have an ability, if not the desire, to land an ace in the form of Thor(or lesser, Wheeler) if they were motivated. But all indications are they will not strike quickly and that is perplexing when Cleveland is retrenching and the rest of the Division is a year or two away from contention. Why not now! It is likely that either Sano or Buxton will rebound to 2017 values(no, probably not both), that the Twins have a pretty good #2-#5 rotation, and some good above average major leaguers in Polanco, Garver, Rosario and hopefully, Kepler. Yes, some ifs but with the right risk-taking, it is easy to see this team more competitive next year. They have money to spend, tradable assets in a strong minor league system, and a decent, albeit not overpowering , core of young players. There is simply no excuse for the FO to sit back and wait for bargains. They have the means to strike; unfortunately, the will seems to be missing!

Can hardly fault the FO for this move. Looks like good value but not a game changer(and maybe not much better than Austin). Of more interest is what this first move of the offseason might indicate. If you can believe MLBTR, the Twins have also shown some interest in Sonny Gray and JA Happ. If accurate, going after another #4 0r #5 starter gives little indication the Twins are going big this offseason. Coupled with the Cron signing and Donaldson going to Atlanta this "news" shows bargain basement thinking. Is the ghost of TR still there? Many on TD will applaud this strategy but I, for one, question whether kicking the ball down the road is the right way. I don't want to jump to early conclusions, as the hot stove league will heat up much more over the next 2-3 weeks, but reading the tea leaves so far, including Pohlad's comment about not spending the money freed up this offseason, one has to question the FO's willingness to challenge for the playoffs in 2019. Let's hope they can at least exceed last offseason's efforts!

Further down the MLBTR article, Todd hypothesizes that: It stands to reason that the Mets would seek to land assets with at least some amount of control, rather than pure rentals, but also that they’d prefer players that have established themselves to some extent in the major leagues. It’s possible to imagine the club being intrigued by additions behind the plate, in center field, or just about anywhere in the infield. The bullpen is a clear need as well, though it’s tough to see a reliever driving a deal. Of course, we have no idea if he is correct in this assumption, but interestingly, it would appear the Mets are not looking for starting pitching, but a catcher, infielder and outfielder. Admittedly, the Twins are thin in these areas, but as I mentioned in an earlier post, Sano and Kepler must still be viewed as "major leaguers" with good upside potential. Garver more so than Castro, as well. With the emergence of Cave and Kirillof in a year or two, Kepler mustr be viewed as a valuable trade chip, at least by the Twins, if they are going to snag a top starter on the trade market. Likewise, while it would hurt to trade Sano at a low point(but his mental as well as physical makeup just seems too big a risk for the Twins to tolerate much longer) his trade value is certainly higher than any other Twins infielder and thus, might be very attractive to a rebuilding team like the Mets. But this only makes sense if they could acquire a FA like Donaldson. Doubtful whether the Twins would give up this much and frankly, just as doubtful that these players would maximize value for Thor. For example, the Cubs with Russell, Haap, Schwarber and even Contreras would have a lot better chance than the Twins in landing Thor. All depends on what the Mets are willing to accept here(if they really are serious about trading Thor). The Twins need for a starter to slot in ahead of Berrios is critical if they want to seriously contend in 2019. Because of his age, contract, and performance, there is no one close to Thor who might be available either on the trade or FA market, so a bidding war is almost sure to emerge. Doubtful the Twins could win this one, but I sure would hope they'd be in the discussions. It is likely a more veteran pitcher like Greineke or Baumgartner would be more realistic, just in the return that would be needed, but neither one can be viewed as a long term piece of the Twins' rotation. Here's hoping the FO can land one of these three this offseason, with Thor far and away the gold ring.

Importantly, Heyman notes that the key for the Mets in any potential deal would be to “fill multiple holes with real impact.” That suggests, unsurprisingly, that new GM Brodie Van Wagenen will not be looking for lower-level prospects. And it also seems to indicate that there’s a rather high asking price for one of the game’s most talented hurlers. Assuming there's some validity to this rumor and Heyman's comment above, a trade to bring Thor to the Twins would likely entail including a major league ready outfielder, infielder and catcher. Yes, that's a haul, but would prefer giving up some current roster players who can be more easily replaced than one of Lewis or Kirillof. For example, a player like Kepler would likely be a good fit for NY, but would not necessarily leave a big void in the OF with Cave's presence. Similarly, a trade chip like Sano would likely be attractive, as well(after all, the upside is still enormous), but he can (and should) be replaced with Josh Donaldson - a better hitter and fielder. And offering either Castro or Garver would likely fill NY's need for catcher, but still leave the Twins in good shape with Astudillo as reserve. Not saying some other team couldn't top the Twins package, but the FO should be all in for an ace like Thor if they are really serious about competing in 2019. After all, with money available(assuming Pohlad does not want to pocket the $50MM for his portfolio), and a strong FA class, the Twins could easily fill their gaping holes in the bullpen, at DH, and 1B. Adding Thor as an ace without having to give up Berrios or Gibson would go a long way to level the field at least in the Central Division. This is a much bettter move than going after a much older Greineke. The big question remains unanswered : should(and would) the FO go all in now for a 2019 run or should they sit back and wait until the next crop of prospects is ready to contribute in 2021-22? Big decision here, and unfortunately, I would wager the second approach will be followed. Too bad, because the window is opening in the Central Division if they go bold. This truly is a franchise-deciding offseason.

Given what’s out there however, none of the necessary additions can simply be band-aids. Whether or not the front-office goes for it in 2019 or beginning in 2020 doesn’t much matter. This club needs an impact bat in the worst way and skimping on that should draw ire from the fan base. Ted, couldn't have said it better! This team has so many holes now that it would almost be like drawing to an inside straight to expect the team to be a legitimate playoff contender next year. But try they must, given the state of the division, the likely decline of the Indians, a decent core, and most importantly, a surfeit of money. Much has been said about the need for, not one, but at least two outside late-inning relievers who should, at least going into the season, above their two best current relievers, Rodgers and May. This need can easily be addressed by a couple of shrewd free agent signings from a particularly deep crop this year(only a cautionary note: go for proven quality, not potential rebound candidates). Assuming the FO can get that done, they should move on to filling glaring offense needs, mainly lack of both impact hitters and good OBP players. Openings exist at DH, !B, 2b/SS, and 3B(Sano cannot be assumed to bounce back given his poor lack of self control). The OF and C positions should hardly be priorities unless Kepler heading a package for a top starter is necessary(Buxton's fielding prowess makes him a keeper, at least for the first 2-3 months of the season). So your list presents some attractive candidates. I would be delighted to snare two of Donaldson, Cruz, or Santana - but two would be a minimum in an ideal world. Since up the middle defense is important, I might sacrifice a little offense, but not much. Marwin Gonzales or Addison Russell would lead the list to fill the SS position. These three new players would put a real jolt in an anemic Twins' lineup and would act as a bridge to the Twins next round of prospe cts for 2020-21. Should either Sano or Buxton mature, all the better, but at least we wouldn't be counting on them to move forward offensively. The topping on this offseason has to be at least one addition who would supplant Berrios as our #1 starter. There are some trade candidates who surely must be looked at,e.g., Baumgartner, Greinke, Matz, Wheeler. Yes, there is some risk in this list, but the Twins have the minor league depth now, along with one of our major league starters(Sano or Kepler) to appeal to a rebuilding team like the Mets, Giants or Dbacks to get a trade done. Completion of the above scenario is within the realm of possibility and with a new energetic manager and coaching staff, would be enough to bring back the franchise into relevance again. Failure to do this will only keep the Twins treading water and wait for the next round of prospects. That hope has been dashed too many times to believe it is a viable path anymore. If this is a really dynamic FO, they need to show more resolve in building a winner in an offseason that offers so much promise.

I, too, have been divided on the FO's acumen. With a glut of well-regarded pitching coaches on the market last year, the wonder boys reached way down and picked Alston, who seemed to be treading water in his coaching career with no sign of progressive advancement. It seemed like sheer hubris to me that they bypassed someone like Mike Maddox for an untested guy like Alston. The fact he lasted only one year somewhat seems like a FO concession to a mistake. Now they go totally outside the box and select a college pitching coach without any prior MLB experience. Is this another sign of Falvey being too smart for his own good again? Strangely enough, I sort of like this pick. It shows a real willingness to roll the dice and go with someone brand new with perhaps a refreshing new outlook that might change the long term failures in the organization. Here's hoping they drew the brass ring on this one, because if not, you can pretty much kiss Falvey and his five year plan goodbye. But sometimes, a big risk can pay off. In this case, we'll just have to wait and see. But there is one caveat here. The FO must give the new manager and coaches more to work with in 2019. The needs in the bullpen are glaringly obvious: at least two veteran late inning relievers are a must. With plenty of payroll space and a strong FA class, there is simply no excuse available if they don't fill these holes. And while the rotation seems to have stabilized with the emergence of Berrios and Gibson, there is no way theTwins can legitimately compete in 2019 without adding at least one "ace" to this staff. While FA starters(Corbin, Keuchel) are out of the Twins' payroll reach, there are some trade candidates who are available, including Greinke, Baumgartner(maybe) and perhaps either Wheeler or Matz from the Mets. Assuming the Twins agressively go after at least 2-3 offensive improvements in FA, they should have surplus to pull off such a trade with Sano or Kepler being likely trade bait, along with our strong minor league prospect list. Yes, there is still the possibility the FO has already decided to sit back and wait for Sano and Buxton to establish themselves(or not) in 2019, but if so, they are greatly lessening the chance for success by the new manager and coaches.

Levine told Hayes that if Sano and Buxton take a step forward “I think we have primed ownership to then give us the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players.” We’ll see how the offseason unfolds, but that quote leads me to believe there’s going to be more of a holding pattern this upcoming season. That they'll wait for a Sano/Buxton breakout before really getting aggressive. That’s the last thing I want to see. Be buyers or sellers. You’re either in or you’re out. No more middle ground In an offseason totally devoid of action, we Twin fans are forced to grasp at straws and as Tom points out, this is perhaps a sign of the 2018/2019 offseason. While some fans may see this as the "prudent,low-risk" approach, to the rest of us, this would truly be a wasted opportunity and an indictment of Falvey and company . Consider: 1. With an estimated payroll of about $70-75 MM going into the offseason, the Twins have close to that much money to spend. Why should it be saved for future years, especially when the best team in the division seems to by possibly retrenching, the rest of the division is a ways from being competitive, and the Twins despite many disappointments in 2018, were only 6 games below .500. 2. The Twins have built up enough depth in their minor league system to trade at least some of their top prospects for established major leaguers, particularly in the rotation. After all, as we know from bitter experience, many of these "prospects" will never advance beyond that status. 3. Waiting until midseason to see how Sano/Buxton perform is a sure-fire prescription for mediocrity. The Twins can hope that at least Buxton rises to his 2017 WAR level, solidifying the OF defense, and that Sano can easily be replaced with a FA player. If both Sano and Buxton bounce back, so muct the better - the Twins could advance from contender for a WC spot to genuine playoff threat. What's wrong with being "too deep" in quality players? Treading water in the offseason waiting for the 2019 season to unfold is an unacceptable middling position unworthy of the FO whiz kids and long-suffering Twin fans. This passivity that Levine seems to demonstrate in the above quote smacks too much of Ryanism and all the mediocrity that brought one playoff victory in the last 18 years!!). I, for one, would be outraged if Levine backs up these words with the corresponding inaction his words imply.

Ted, kudos on delving into an important issue the Twins face this offseason. Up the middle defense is important and the Twins need to improve there. Castro should improve the catching position, Buxton the CF position, and moving Polanco to 2B would likewise be an upgrade. But signing a good field, no-hit guy like Iglesias does little to address one of the main weaknesses on this team: a dearth of hitters! In my book, if we are going to contend in 2019(and that should be the intent of the wonder boys) bringing in more offense is a priority, especially if Castro and Buxton are regulars, Mauer retires, and Sano is traded(more on that later). So, Marwin and yes, Addison Russell(because his value is lowered with his 40 game suspension) are the most offensive-oriented SS available at a reasonable cost. The twins can ill afford another black hole in their lineup! Gordon cannot be depended on(and probably should be traded as part of a starting pitcher package), Lewis is 2 -3 years away and no one else in the system looks like a bona fide major leaguer. I believe Sano must be dangled, with some minor leaguers, to rebuilding teams who need prospects and a potential starter at 3B. The Mets and Giants both come to mind here. Matz, Wheeler or better yet, Snydergaard, could be pried loose, as could maybe Baumgartner. This type of trade would address the clear need for a #1 starter. Yes, losing Sano is a risk but one that should be taken, especially if the Twins go all out after Donaldson. Signing Cruz as the full-time DH would add to a much revitalized Twins lineup. Guys like Corbin, Machado, etc., are pipe dreams for the Twins franchise but some smart trades and FA signings could put the disappointing 2018 in the rear view mirror and help fill the gap until the next wave comes up.

Nick, you guys are finally warming up! Tom's plan to trade away important assets for a continuing rebuild makes little sense, particularly as it weakens our already mediocre rotation. And Seth's build-from-within plan is simply unrealistic given the porous "core" we simply cannot depend on to compete. Why kick away the opportunity to compete in 2019 when you have a mediocre division that only looks to get weaker with a cash-strapped Cleveland team contemplating listening to offers for their SPs and a Twins team flux with AAAA prospects and a large amount of cash to spend? Most fans hope to see a combination of FA signings and trades to fill obvious weaknesses in the lineup and staff, as you have done. A few specific comments on your ideas: 1. I like your addition of 3 newcomers to a shaky bullpen that badly needs at least two stoppers. I would only disagree with a trade for Iglesias, as FA relievers are in abundance and such a trade would deplete our tradable assets for more scarce commodities. Spend some of the money on top relievers(at least two)! 2. I applaud your idea of going after a top of the rotation starter, but don't believe a slim FA class would work(simply too much money chasing very few, if any, sure bets). Trading for a guy like Baumgartner, Matz or (third choice) Greineke by dangling a major league ready player(preferably Sano, but even Kepler) coupled with a couple of top 10 prospects(Gonzales, Romero, Gordon, e.g) should get it done. Obviously, at this juncture, we don't know who is available but the point is Falvine must be agressive in offering up at least one of the "core" players to secure an ace. 3. I think you are a little light in your new offense. Donaldson would indeed be first on my list of additions, but Nelson Cruz as a full-time DH is too tempting to pass up. Austin is a crap shoot and is pretty much an all or nothing type batter. Jose Iglesias does little for an already shaky lineup; Addison Russell is a bigger risk with a much better upside(and he will be made available). The Cubs badly need an infusion of younger pitching prospects that the Twins have in abundance. With these 3 additions, plus a veteran bat like Daniel Murphy or Matt Adams or Andrew McCutcheon for greater versatility, would be a quantum jump in offense that was so sorely lacking in 2018. 4. I would like at an extension for Berrios and Rosario, but not Buxton who must advance first before being rewarded. So save the money on Corbin, go the trade route for a starter, pack the bullpen with quality arms and beef up the offense big time. And don't encourage Mauer to return! He is a big offensive void at a power position. The Twins have the money to do these things. Do they have the will and the brains to make the right moves? If they don't make at least a couple of major moves early in the offseason I am afraid they will not be able to achieve the turnaround all Twins' fans crave. This is the critical offseason for the duo and the team! They better have a plan in place and pull it off or their tenure will be a short one.

Lots of fat to chew on in this chat, but let's throw a new wrinkle into the discussion. As reported in MLBTR: The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups. Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars. Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips. Ok, just speculation for now, but by seemingly jettisoning Brantley, the Indians seem focused on budgetary constraints going into 2019. Their major advantage over the Twins is their starting foursome and if they are really looking at trading either Kluber or Carrasco, the balance of power shifts considerably in the AL Central, if the Twins are ready to capitalize. No, the Indians are not likely to trade one of these pitchers to an interdivision rival but such a possibility should force the Twins FO to concentrate even more on reeling in a #1/#2 starter as their top offseason priority and look at 2019 as a realistic playoff opportunity. My feeling is that Free Agency will not work for this organization for all the reasons cited in this thread, but trading one of our future "stars" should definitely be on the table to have a reasonable chance of landing someone like Baumgartner, Greineke, Matz, etc. Start with the determination of which one of Buxton/Sano has best chance to rebound and start sending out feelers on the other(I'm in the keep Buxton camp, btw). While Sano might not fetch the haul he would have a year ago, he still might have significant value to a rebuilding team seeking a talent-heavy package of prospects along with a major league ready power hitting 3B. If the Indians are indeed willing to trade one of their pitching stars, the Twins must jump at the opportunity of a widening window of contention. Right now as things stand with the two rosters the Twins have too many holes to make up to legitimately compete in 2019 but the combination of Twin additions and Indian losses can narrow that gap in a big hurry. I doubt whether Falvine will wait for the Cleveland FO to act this offseason but in any case, such news should propel them to greater efforts to add real difference-makers to this team in the offseason.

It is refreshing to finally see the Twins shredding the plague of the last couple decades that almost good enough was not only acceptable but was lauded as a success, and start holding people accountable for losing instead of giving them tenure for life. Amen to that! I had been a critic of Alston;s selection, not so much because of his failure for promotions with his previous clubs, but more because of the number of proven major league pitching coaches available last season, e.g., Maddox, Hickey, Bosio, etc. It just seemed like sheer hubris when Falvine plucked Alston from the depths of obscurity. Alston was by no means solely responsible for 2018's dismal performance, but can anyone name any pitchers who showed progress last year? At least the FO seems capable of moving on from their mistakes - a refreshing change from the Ryan regime. Now let's just hope they don't go to the Tampa well once again(shades of Neil Allen) and instead, look for the best man available. With a new manager, an experienced, proven pitching coach is an absolute must! I would have liked that Rowson be ditched as well but for whatever reason, the FO sees more in him(they thought he was managerial material) than perhaps is warranted from the team's performance. If Rowson was responsible for helping the young core surge in the last two months of 2017, shouldn't he bear some responsibility for the drastic falloff this year? Of course, good hitting coaches stumble too - just look at Chili Davis and the Cubs in 2018. How much a hitting coach can really help an individual batter is much more of a crap shoot than in case of good pitching coaches who can combine experience with improved analytics to have a more positive influence on their staff. But let's give the wonder boys some credit here. Kudos to going outside the organization for a dynamic new manager who, on the surface and in person, seems capable of inspiring his players as opposed to just "managing". Let's hope this trend continues with the new pitching and other new coaches. It's a good start to the offseason!

Glad you are addressing the preeminent issue of this offseason: should the Twins retrench as you suggest, go for it all in 2019 or is there some middle way? The difficulty with deciding now what should be done is we don't know how strong the "current core" really is. Without Sano and Buxton rebounding, there is not much of a core - Rosario, Berrios and maybe, Polanco. That's pretty slim pickings for a team with playoff aspirations. Your solution is to start over and wait for the new wave. The fallacy in this approach is that it ignores the vast amount of money available to spend as well as a pretty strong minor league system of our own. Pohlad doesn't need to bank the savings and if a few things bounce right for 2019, like either Sano or Buxton rebounding to near all-star performance(unlikely for both, but at least a 50:50 probability that one reemerges), then some sound FA investments, like two late inning BP arms, a genuine cleanup hitter(DH/! and a middle infielder with some pop might be enough to at least elevate this team back into contention. With the current FA market and lots of cash, this is all eminently doable with some shrewd FO maneuvering. No, free agency alone is not enough to get this team into the elite level but a couple of shrewd trades that could return a badly needed ace or #2 starter by giving up some of the quality in our minor league system and/or trading one of Sano/Buxton (yes, the choice of which one is a hard one but this managment team has seen these two for two seasons now and so should be able to predict which one is more likely to be a keeper. Yes, there is risk, but slotting at least one starter above Berrios is a must if this team is serious about contending in 2019. Trading, Kepler, Gibson and Odorizzi robs us of depth and pushes off the rebuild for at least two more years. I, too, have my reservations about the wonder boys but the fact they are unafraid to strike quickly is a positive trait. Yes, there have been some missteps along the way, but now they have cleared a lot of deadwood, there is ample room for maneuvering. This is their time to strike boldly, not to equivocate.

Yarnivek 1972: Not suggesting Sano or Buxton themselves would be enough to snare a #1 starter, but they could certainly be the centerpiece for a rebuilding team - much more so than a high MILB prospect. We have some minor league pitchers with some potential; I would not hesitate if some other team were interested in Stewart, Gonzales or even Romero, depending on the return. Just look at Berrios' splits against >.500 teams above. He is not the guy yet to lead this team in the playoffs. He didn't show it against Yanks last year, nor did he pitch well against top teams this year. He fattened up on Tigers, Sox and Royals, to name three. Berrios is an important cog but far from an ace!