mike8791

Yes, we both probably remember TK's adage that he wanted to wait until end of May to see what's what. My point is not to wait until July/August for slumping players to rebound. I should add that theme of this blog presupposes we have some prospects in AA/AAA flourishing for the month of May. Late start to the minors, though, is certainly a downside.

Spring training is slightly more than half over. While most of us tend to dismiss results, both from the Twins W/L record and individual performances, I admit to a growing concern about last year's greatest weakness - the offense. Looking at team stats the Twins rank 23rd(out of 30) in BA, 27th in Runs, 29th in OBP, and 25th in Slugging. These figures are even more depressing if we subtract the very robust stats from guys like Lin, Astudillo, Broxton, and Garlick, none of whom are given much of a shot to make the 26 man roster(more on that later). Among the almost certain starters, Sano, Buxton, Simmons(very SSS) are all hitting below the Mendoza line and Kepler is below .100. Even our two most heralded rookies, Kirillof and Larnach fall below .200BA and Jeffers is near the line. Is this a continuation of 2020's offensive malais? Well, we obviously won't know much until the season starts, but after 2+ weeks of ST, one has to wonder what offense can we expect from these designated starters in 2021? On paper, this looks like a solid lineup. Barring injuries, it could be one of the more productive ones in the majors. Guys like Cruz and Donaldson should be expected to produce and others like Buxton and Arraez have exhibited enough offensive prowess to supplement the big two. Simmon's defensive chops at SS earns him a pass on offensive production. But there are still holes in this lineup. namely Sano, Kepler, LF, Garver. The streakiness of this lineup, so apparent in the playoffs, could loom large over a full season. All we have to fall back on in forecasting is past performance, which among these last group named, is, to say the least, highly erratic. Suffice it to say that despite rosy predictions for the 2021 Twins, the FO cannot afford to wait all season for some of these hitters to perform. The Cubs have made the mistake of waiting too long for guys like Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Contreras to live up to their earlier potential, with the result they have steadily declined since their 2016WC and now border on irrelevance. Patience should not be endless. If Sano, Kepler, et. al., don't pick up in April and May, then guys like Astudillo, Broxton, Garlick, and any of our high minor league prospects should be given the opportunity. This is not pushing the panic button. It's part of good managment to separate the wheat from the chaff. The window is wide open for this team to advance deep into the playoffs so long as complacency does not remain the org's managing philosophy.

I have always thought of Kepler as one of those over-hyped Twin prospects who has never really lived up to his "potential", with the single exception of 2019. He is a low BA guy with some pop. My doubts have been reenforced with this spring's performance where he is batting .087. Yes, its only spring training but his lack of improvement is troubling. The Twins have two rookie OFs in Kirillof and Larnach who are almost ready. Is it unreasonable to look at Kepler as a valuable trade piece? Probably not now, or not even this year, but the Twins should be more proactive in looking to trade players like Kepler, Sano, Garver who are streaky hitters and outside of maybe one year, have never performed at the high, consistent level hoped for. This is a critical year for these players and if they don'y rebound, a smart FO should consider alternatives.

You know what they say about great minds.....!! I posted in your Part 1 post that Polanco is an obvious trade candidate with the Reds, partly because they have not yet addressed their biggest need of the offseason - SS, and also because moving Arraez to a utility player makes absolutely no sense when you consider he is a batting title contender with great OBP potential. Do you risk messing with such offensive potential by moving him around to different positions? He is too accomplished a hitter to risk a utility role, even if his ABs are maintained. And Lin looks like he might be a perfectly acceptable utility IF. Polanco + a top 20 pitching prospect might work, but you can rest assured a high pitching prospect would be a much higher priority to the Reds than a draft choice. I would throw in someone like Rooker, too. I believe such a package could land Gray who would certainly move into the top 3 of Twins' rotation, but not Castillo. To grab Castillo would probably take either Kirillof or Larnach. That would be a deal killer for me. Both of these players are the only near-term prospects that look like significant upgrade tp a lineup still filled with too many all or nothing hitters. Such a trade is so against this FO's track record that its safe to say its not going to happen, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't.

I think lost in all the speculation is that the Reds want a top shortstop. Offering them anything else is like offering an orange when they want an apple. Are Polanco or Gordon "top" shortstops? Evidently not when you move one to 2B and the other can't make his way out of the Minors. Keep dreaming! Disagree! Reds can't afford a top prospect. Polanco is a bargain and better by far overall than anything else on Reds 40 man. Of course, Twins would need to add one top pitching prospect plus one other top 20 prospect, and more if it were Castillo rather than Gray. But Sonny Gray would be a very solid top 3 starter. With that said, likelihood of going after either one is negligible now and probably also at trade deadline unless year goes south or serious ineffectiveness/injury in starting 5.

This has been a hot topic for many of us all winter: do the Twins need another frontline starter to succeed in the playoffs? Certainly they had at least two reasonable trade opportunities in Snell and Darvish, both of whom were acquired for a good but not elite package of prospects. But as many TD readers have remarked, when it comes to trading prospects, this is a very risk-adverse FO. In looking at the Reds as a trade partner earlier this offseason, I had hoped they could grab a very serviceable veteran in Castellanos along with someone like Castillo or Gray. It made sense, at least on paper, especially after signing Simmons, making Polanco expendable at a position(SS) that Reds are weak in. Adding one of our two top pitching prospects and a 10-20 prospect to the package seemed a reasonable and doable package for Sonny Gray, at least. But once they resigned Cruz, adding Castellanos did not make much sense. In all probability, In any case, Falvine probably had few if any conversations with the Reds, given their 4 year history of trisk-averse trade policy. As things have developed late in the offseason and 2 weeks into preseason play, the additions of Happ and Shoemaker look smart, at least on paper. With Berrios and Maeda looking very sharp to date, it is not a stretch to think both could make for a very competitive #1/2 starters in the playoffs, and backed up by a solid threesome. Right now, this looks like a better starting five than the Yanks. I can't say I have the same trust in our bullpen, primarily because of the total ineffectiveness of Duffy and some erratic games by the rest of the big four "closer-types". No reason to push the panic button yet, but again, many of us hoped in vain for addition of a shut-down reliever. The FO opted to add a couple of veterans who could slot in late in the game, but are by no means elite relievers. More troubling so far this spring has been the offense. Yes, SSS, but the Twins relative inability to mount much of an offense is troubling. In particular, Kepler, Sano, Polanco and Kirillof(until yesterday's HR) have looked weak. While I would like to write off 2020 as an aberration, last year's offense was subpar, especially in the playoffs(what else is new). The Twins reliance on the long ball might be further hurt by the deadened ball this year. Relying on erratic hitters like Kepler, Sano and Garver might be a fool's errand. For this reason alone I would not part with their two best hitting prospects, Larnach & Kirillof, for anyone. The twins need more consistency in their lineup and those two, along with Arraez, represent the best chances for improvement, even as early as 2021. We just don't have the depth in the minors to correct some of the obvious deficiencies in our current lineup. So my take is : wait until near the trade deadline and then, reassess the teams' critical needs to break their stomach-churning playoff streak. Think big or go home, Mr. Falvey!

Can't understand how Sox are pegged ahead of Twins assuming equal health. Giolito probably has more ace potential than Maeda, but Berrios and Pineda are a better bet than Keuchel and Lynn, both of whom are getting up in age. As for the $4 & #5 spots, as Nash mentions, Cease, Lopez and Rodon are crap shoots. Now if Kopech returns as a starter, watch out! But again, I have to like Happ and Shoemaker over the Sox twosome. Again, Sox have the best stopper in Hendriks, but the next 3 arms, while promising, are relatively unproven, especially in critical games. Overall, our top four should be more reliable than Sox top four, although I am mighty worried about Roger's ability to bounce back. The back end of our bullpen looks better on paper, especially with Dobnak in long relief. Its the offense that gives me more pause in assessing the two teams. No doubt, the Sox have more higher ceiling guys than the Twins, but because of their youth, there is more uncertainty over continued progress. Our all-or-nothing offense last year is cause for concern. No one, except Cruz and Arraez, played up to their potential - and we lost a key RBI guy in Rosie. So maybe give the Sox a slight edge in run production, but look out AL if a couple of our hitters like Garver and Kepler rebound - and most importantly, if Buxton and Donaldson are healthy. With an improved defense and more solid bench, the Twins should be at or near the top of AL in win %, but so much depends on health!! Won't even predict if this team can break thru in the playoffs, but make them, they will.

And now Lewis out for the season with a torn ACL!! Wow!! What a gut shot. Is this one of those snake bitten #1s who flame out? Certainly young enough to fully recover, but parallels to Buxton are starting to appear.

http://Since Kirilloff and the college hitters look like sure MLB regulars, it will all depend on how the pitching prospects turn out. Nicely said! The rotation looks solid this year, but next year, look out below! Only Maeda would be a lock to return. The FO has had plenty of time to resign Berrios, but at this juncture, that seems unlikely. Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker will be FA and with their ages, perhaps only Pineda might be retained but that will greatly depend on his 2021 performance. This FO has emphasized position players in their 4 drafts. Yes, they traded for Duran, but otherwise, their emphasis on offense in the draft has cast question marks on the quality of their 2022 rotation. If Duran and Balozovic are both ready to step in next year and provide quality starts, then that would greatly alleviate the losses. What are the odds of that happening? I like what this FO has done to restore the Twins to a playoff caliber team, but the fact is they have not proven they can spot pitching talent and develop same into quality big leaguers. Since they refrain from signing top FA pitchers, where can they turn? Sure, they can hope their prospects turn into top starters but that's just a crap shoot, especially in an org. that has badly underperformed in developing pitchers compared to Cleveland or LA. I know many on TD have crowned the Falvine regime to be brilliant in turning around this org., but color me still sceptical when it comes to developing arms. Which is why I am so perplexed from their failure to use the trade route to acquire pitching. What is the point of having a solid minor league system, especially a surplus of OF, if you don't seriously engage in trade talks with rebuilding teams having to jettison good pitchers for future prospects? The FO did not do anything in the offseason to add young, controllable pitching - a clear area of weakness as soon as next year. Nor have they shown the ability to pull the trigger at the trade deadline to add to their rotation. By not doing so again this year, the FO is doing a disservice to a good team that will need an infusion of starters as early as next year to keep the window open.

I remember when Musgrove was traded to the Pods, there were reports that Twins were also interested but Pirates asked for Larnach and Twins turned it down. Just a rumor but wonder what others think about wisdom of trading from area of strength in the organization for someone like Musgrove? What if Larnach could fetch a pitcher like Sonny Gray or being the top trade piece for Luis Castillo? How about one of the Dodger studs like May or Urias? Would this keep the window open longer?

Nick, great article! This is why you are my favorite TD writer - you try to look beyond the superficial and delve into what the underlying issues are!! There tends to be too much homerism on this site but articles like this are a refreshing change. You have hit the salient point of the 2021 team: are they better positioned to succeed in the playoffs? Hard to quarrel with the widespread opinion that the 2021 Twins are well positioned to make the playoffs, given the 2 or 3 bottom feeders in the division and the new additions that, at the very least, make this year's team at least as good as last year's. No doubt IF defense is vastly improved. This weakness in the last couple of years has been instrumental in playoff defeats, though not nearly as much as hitting woes and the bullpen. But this is where I have to diverge from your story line a bit. The bullpen does not seem to have a shutdown reliever, one who can come in late in the game and not allow any runs to score. Yes, Colome is better than Romo but after two years, the Sox saw enough to dump him for a real closer in Hendricks. Roger's just cannot be considered an elite ninth inning arm, nor does he have the durability to pitch well in consecutive games. So give the FO a C grade in upgrading the pen; at best, this might be as good as last year's bullpen, unless some unheralded player steps forward. On the offensive side of the ball, the team could take a big jump forward if Buxton/Donaldson are healthy for 140 games or so, but as you note, past performances point to this being an unlikely scenario. I, for one, am uneasy about Araez's utility role. With his OB skills, he is a key to a successful offense. How will his super-utility role affect his hitting? Could be unsettling - or not?? One other big factor that others on this post have noted regarding our playoff futility: leadership. Under Gardy, who seemed to give in to the Yankee Stadium jinx, the team just looked flat during the aught playoffs.. Just no spark! DOA!! This was partly a reflection of the manager, lack of competitive fire and resilience. The two best players, Mauer and Morneau, wetre hardle leader-types. Similarly, under Rocco, except for Cruz, this team looked defeated the last two postseasons, even with their record-setting 2019 record-setting HR barrage. Again, no fire in the lineup. Too nice. Maybe Rocco is a little too laid back, maybe the lineup was pressing too much, who knows? But the psychology of losing seems to have permeated this team, unlike the 87/91 teams under Kelly along with firebrands like Gaetti, Puckett, Knoblach, Morris and Hrbek. Could this lack of fire possibly reflect mgt. who has refused to make a "big" move at the trade deadline that could have pushed the team over the top for the stretch run? For example, many of us feel we do not have a top shutdown ace for the playoffs(Maeda might be the best in a while but how will he hold up in a full season?) What would the addition of a Snell or Darvish have done for this 2021 team's confidence? Same for even a Hendrick's, Rosenthal or Yates signing? If managment doesn't go all out to win, what message does this send the players? Here in Chicago, with some big moves the past two seasons and the addition of a no-nonsense, playoff-experienced LaRussa, expectations are sky high. Can we say the same in the Twin Cities?

Major League Ready - you missed the main points!! First, a trade for Snell would not have put the Twins in the poor house; his annual pay was around $13MM. Gray is in about same range. If our prospects are so good, then it should not be unrealistic to trade for either of these two. Second, no one is saying the Twins should go after a Bauer in FA. No one! Nor do I think Hendricks contract was wise, but guys like Yates, Rosenthal, or Hands would have been very affordable and an appreciable upgrade from Colome, who the Sox deemed expendable after 2 seasons. The point here is simply that Twins mgt. has never shown or even expressed the desire that their only goal is winning a championship. Being competitive might satisfy your wishes, but not mine. I agree our TV package is on the low side, but Pohlad and company continue to live in a banker's world where the bottom line is everything. Why haven't they learned that in order to succeed you must invest first, then reap the rewards later? Unfortunately, the conservative banking mentality seems to be the key criteria in hiring the Ryans and Falveys of the world to run their baseball org.

Nick, am a big fan of your stuff but I think you might underestimate the profound disgust many of us long-term Twins fans feel about this org's long term inability to make some big moves that would elevate a good team into a championship contender. The Ryan regime encapsulated the low-risk MO of the organization by not building on competitive teams in the aughts to make midseason additions that could have brought us closer to another championship. In particular, the 2006 and 2010 were two terrific teams that fell short in the playoffs. Ryan by refusing to trade any of his prized prospects failed to add enough to fill some obvious weaknesses. BTW, none of his prospects really contributed to future Twins success. This nibbling at the edges has been continued by Falvine. Yes, Donaldson was, we hope, a strong addition, as was the Maeda trade, but as Darius notes, they found a pitcher unneeded and underutilized by the Dodgers and actually gave up a "top" PROSPECT in Graterol to get him. The fact that Maeda turned into an ace was a pleasant surprise, but what are the odds that he does the same over a full 160 game season? The FO should have agressively gone after another top-of-the-rotation starter, like Snell, Darvish, maybe even ones like Castillo or Gray from the Reds, to greatly improve their chances in 2021, just like they should have signed a bona fide closer in case Rogers downhill slide continues. And while they have been in charge for 4+ years, none of their draft choices seem ready to help this team in the near future; in fact, their #1 overall pick, Lewis, has continued a steady slide down prospect rankings(#46 in Law's latest). I would like to see more attention paid by TD writers to the concerns many of us have that this org, from Pohlad down to Falvey, has shown little commitment to going all out for a championship. If not this year, when?

I don't know if Hayes/Gleeman and you are collaborating, but their latest analysis on the 26 man roster also includes The Turtle as the 26th man. Now that the all-important middle infield is well set, addition of Tortuga primarily for PH, 3rd string catcher, and fill-in at 1B/DH seems like a no-brainer. Once Kirillof is added, this should be a very formidable lineup, IF Buxton/Donaldson can be counted on for full seasons. No need now to add to the offense, assuming no trades for pitching.

I like the Colome and Robles signings. They definitely strengthen late-inning relief help. But I'm not sure this bullpen is playoff-caliber. The biggest worry I have is Rogers who simply looked awful last year. I would hate to entrust him with closing duties early, at least until he has proven he has regained his 2019 form. Duffy and Colome appear solid and Robles has potential to fit in critical game situations, too. Stashak and Alcala could be solid, but I would hate to rely on Thielbar and Hamilton to round out the bullpen. I never want to see Lewis or Smeltzer in any Twins game, ever. Dobnak might prove a useful middle reliever, innings-eater. I am still hoping for a more proven veteran FA(Odo would be great, but unlikely; hope Twins can swing trade for a starter who would push Dobnak to bullpen/6th starter. Assuming the only goal in 2021 is to win in the playoffs, I don't think this bullpen, on paper anyway, looks anywhere near championship caliber. With Baldy's propensity to pull his starters after 5 innings, the need for a shutdown bullpen becomes vital to the team's success. We're not there - yet.

I've brought up this possibility of trading for one of the displaced young Dodger hurlers on David Young's latest Notebook article. I would totally be against any inquiry of Price for the simple reason there are available FA veteran starters who would be much cheaper, but probably at similar performance levels as the fading Price. But the Dodgers are now awash in young, promising pitchers(only one or two of whom will make the starting five): Dustin May(23) Julio Urias(24) Tony Gonsolin(27) As many have pointed out, May would be the hardest to pry away, Urias and Gonsolin seem to have almost equal ceilings, based on limited major league performance. For the Twins, I'd be more interested in Urias because he's a lefty, he'll be 24 in 2021, and so far has performed well in an admittedly SSS. He is exactly the sort of young pitcher the Twins should be targeting this offseason, especially with the ages of Pineda and Happ, and the looming free agency of Berrios. Yes, the Dodgers are notoriously hard to deal with and yet, the Twins pulled off a trade for Maeda last year - conceivably one of the biggest pickups in Twins' recent history. Maeda was considered excess once Price was acquired; hence, he was made available for a high, but unproven prospect in Graterol. Now, the situation could be identical with the Bauer signing. Its an intriguing possibility, one that any agressive FO should be very seriously exploring. The big question is: what would it take to get him? Looking at the Dodger lineup, there are hardly any glaring weaknesses, but one might look at 3B, where Turner is a FA, for starters. Not sure what they'd want from the Twins but now we have an "extra" IF in either Polanco or Arraez, either of whom could play 3B. Would the Dodgers be interested in a big thumper like Sano whose position the Twins can replace fairly easily. Or, might it take a package headlined by Lewis or Larnach, Balazovic or Duran or Enlow? The chances for this risk-averse FO to swing such a deal are pretty low. Coupled with the Dodger's desire to shed Price's salary and the odds drop even further. But despite such odds, wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins FO swing for the fences for once?

Some mild speculation that Bauer addition might trigger LA to unload some of their excess pitching. Right now their rotation consists of Bauer, Kershaw, Buehler, Price, May, Urias, and Gonsolin. Wow!! Bauer, Kershaw, and Buehler would be unavailable. Price would most definitely be available but who wants the salary. Doubtful they'd give up May, but Urias or Gonsolin should be available. Looking over their current roster, with Justin Turner unsigned, the Dodgers lack a good offensive 3B. The Maeda/Graterol trade worked out well for both clubs. What about Sano for one of their excess starters? At least its worth an email.

Some great names to drool over, but they are just a pipe dream with this FO. As mentioned by Prouster, Twins had excellent chance for picking up Gallen cheaply, but passed. This offseason, they could have actively pursued Castillo/Gray but obviously deemed the price in prospects too high. It's just guesswork, but trading Lewis or Larnach + one of out top 2 or 3 pitching prospects + a top 20 prospect could have likely gotten at least Gray. The Reds are desperate for a SS; after signing Simmons, why wasn't Polanco offered up as key to a trade package with Reds? Isn't the addition of a potential #1 or #2 starter more impactful in breaking the dreadful playoff streak than a utility IF? Since Cincy wanted to dump salary as part of any deal, we could also have probably picked up Castellanos in any trade for Gray/Castillo. Falvine's risk-taking chops in 4 years have been close to zero. The only exception would be the Maeda trade where they gave up a top prospect for him. Kudos of course, but if you can pick up a potential top starter for a prospect already designated as bullpen material, it's practically a no-brainer, even for this FO. They are much more adept at salary dumps - an activity this organization has excelled in for years. There are some organizations that can recognize when their team has a shot at WS contention and go all in. Living in Chicago, I can point to the Cubs who invested heavily in guys like Lester to push them over the top. More recently, we have the Sox whose 85-year old owner is determined to see another championship banner before he's gone. This is why the Sox saw a chance to upgrade their bullpen by jettisoning an adequate closer in Colome for a best-in-the-game Hendricks. Not saying that'll give the southsiders a WS but they are going all in this year and have elevated their odds to accomplish that goal. Has anyone ever heard of JP expressing such ambition? Ownership seemingly goes along with their baseball leadership, but is it any surprise the guys they hired(Ryan, Falvey) are as risk averse as ownership? If you're content to have a competitive team year after year, than you probably like such caution. But if you yearn for a championship, incrementalism will never get you there. Compare MacPhails' moves in "87 and '91 to current management. Sure, there was some luck involved, especially in '87, but Andy's additions in the offseason arguably made the difference for both teams. Can anyone say this about Falvey?

I enjoyed the article and agree that we Twin fans can feel more optimistic now than in December, especially with the Simmons and Cruz signings, but I can't see this FO getting an A Rating. Time will tell, of course, but the sole object of this offseason(and the actual 2021 season) was to move the needle enough to improve our chances not only to make the playoffs, but to succeed in these same playoffs, at least to the point of becoming serious WS contenders. Simmons was the only move that really moved the needle somewhat. The other additions filled some holes: Cruz/ Cruz; Happ/Odorrizi & Hill; Colome and Robles/May, Romo, Wisler, Clippard. Net result: while we haven't fallen back, this team's odds of breaking their long playoff futility run is still pretty much dependent on the ability of Donaldson and Buxton to enjoy productive full seasons and Maeda to repeat his great 2020 year. If any one of these keys fail, we just don't have the depth to compensate. Many readers applaud Falvine's smart, under-the-radar moves. As you say, this is a risk-averse FO, that is more interested in finding value than "big" moves. So true! Others of us who well remember the glory days of 1987/1991 would like to see a repeat. I realize that this org. will never match the Dodgers, Yanks, Bosox, Cubs in spending, but there are other ways to move the needle, as the Pods have shown. Yes, Falvine should be applauded for 3 out of 4 years getting the Twins into the playoffs and certainly setting us up for a strong 2021, but can such a risk averse FO bring us a WS? The answer to that question will ultimately determine their grade. As of now, give them an above average B Grade and hope they drop their aversion to risk and move the needle a bit further than has been done.

Nick, kudos on a very informative article! Thank you. I'm surprised the Twins are pencilling in Arraez as their chief utility guy. He is the exact type of contact/high OBP hitter the team needs to counter many of the all-or-nothing types who abound. My fear is that this young, talented player might be unsettled to move around so much, resulting in a falloff in production. I don't think his defensive weakness at 2B is nearly severe enough to move him from that position, which isn't nearly as critical as SS or 3B. Nor do I think this Simmons addition will or should effect the team's need for a proven run producer like Cruz(or alternative) as DH in a lineup already weakened by Rosario's departure. I was hopeful after Rosenthal's column that Arraez could be a huge trade bait to land a #1/2 starter, like Snell or Darvish, but that ship has sailed. Now, maybe the only pitcher worth including in any Arraez trade would be Luis Castillo. Unfortunately, the Reds are in dire need of a SS so Polanco(or even Lewis) might be a better key to getting that trade done. If Castillo is untouchable, like many believe, why not try for Sonny Gray for Polanco? Bottom line, I'd like to keep Arraez, trade Polanco for someone like Gray, and sign one of the remaining utility players or Blankenship/Lewis. Much better team with Gray in the rotation, Cruz, Arraez and Kirillof in the lineup. The Twins have at least one good utility OF in Cave and certainly should be able to find a capable utility IF among what's still out there.

Speaking of Law's list, several surprises, at least to me: 1. Ranks Kirillof the 7th best prospect! Yes, he should start from Day 1!! 2. Lewis's ranking drops to #46. He cites tinkering with his stance as cause for concern. Makes you wonder whetherLewis more valuable in trade or key player on Twins in the future? This is quite a drop for a #1 overall pick. 3. Balazovic (# 63) and Duran(#83) both included in rankings. Doesn't expect them to make any impact at major league level in 2021. 4. Larnach unranked?? Was it mistake for Twins to turn down Larnach for Musgrove(reported in some writer tweets)? Law does admit to great difficult in compiling his 2021 list without benefit of a 2020 minor league season. However, just looking at Laws' rankings, are Twins' prospects overrated by fans and FO or is Law just underrating our farm system? Btw, he will be ranking organizations in February.

About an hour before Andrelton Simmons signed with the #MNTwins, one source suggested they’d pivot to Simmons after missing out on Marcus Semien. Same person believes club has two more moves ahead before the offseason is out. As happy as Twin fans are over the Simmons' signing(probably the Twins best FA signing besides Donaldson), the above quote from Passan's tweet announcing the Simmons signing gives even more reason for optimism for the Twins looking at two more transactions. So lets start the speculation on what these two moves might be/should be. I've broken down the possibilities as follows: 1. Most likely: 1.)resign Cruz; 2.) sign a low cost reliever, e.g., Soria, O'Day, Clippard, who would strengthen the pen but not be "closer" material. 2. Hope not: 1.) sign a low cost, veteran starter like Rich Hill, who would compete for the #5 spot; and 2.) low cost reliever(see above). DH to be filled by rotation of players like Polanco/Arraez, Garver, Rooker. 3. Hope so: 1.) Trade Polanco and a couple of prospects(not top 3) to Reds for Castellanos and Sonny Gray; and 2.) sign Trevor Rosenthal The most likely scenario doesn't move the needle much from what we had in 2020 but is probably sufficient to get the Twins into the playoffs. "Hope not" would be a step backwards, particularly for the offense which will have lost both Cruz and Rosario. Is there enough offensive potential left to carry the team into the playoffs? "Hope so" is obviously the biggest needle mover in terms of increasing our odds of advancing in the playoffs. We have replaced Cruz with a lesser offensive force, but a good one nonetheless who also adds youth and flexibility for 1B/OF positions. In addition with Sonny Gray our rotation becomes a top 3 at least in the AL. And finally, the bullpen would be bolstered by a strong "closer-type" who would be strong insurance against a further decline by Rogers. I know most TD readers are juiced by having Polanco/Arraez in a rotating utility/DH role and that's not a bad idea. But the Reds are desperate for a SS and assuming they do not sign Didi, Polanco would be a terrific sweetener to obtain Gray(or better yet, Castillo). Isn't his value higher in a trade than as a utility player? We could fill the utility role from the likes of Gordon, Blankenhorn, or even Lewis - not ideal but not a game changer either. If the Twins FO goal this offseason is to advance in the playoffs, they're off to a good start with Happ and Simmons' signings. Why stop there? Go bold or settle for "being competiive".

Couple comments Top Gun. First, I might be a little late in embracing these new stat sites like baseball trade values, but I highly doubt that the Reds would be interested in anywhere near as little as that package, even only for Castellanos/Gray. I think it would take a Balozivic, Duran or Enlow(?) plus Polanco and another top 20 prospect to get them interested. Blankenhorn and Gordon are merely fillers, Urbina is a very high risk prospect and Dobnak would seem to have a ceiling as a #5 rotation piece. And while trading for Story is a needle-moving event, he would be a one year addition. No way the Twins offer him a multi-year extension(same argument I gave for passing on Ozuna). This would be an abrupt departure for this FO which so far has given signs they are going all out in 2021.

Nice summary, Nick, but can't agree with your elevating Simmons to #1 priority. Polanco might only be an average defender, but to push him into a utility role seems a much lower priority than 1.) adding a top reliever, like Rosenthal; and 2.) strengthening the rotation with a starter who provides staff with insurance against an injury or falloff in performance from any of their current top three. Now this opinion would change if Polanco was a key trade figure. Part of problem this offseason is that the Twins seem to be waiting on Cruz instead of being more proactive in aggressively seeking players who can actually help us end our playoff woes. Of course, no one knows what budget constraints FO operating under. My take: Falvine are imposing their own restraints rather than JP imposing a limit. Boldness is just not in their DNA, except when talent "falls" to them at end of the offseason. I'm afraid this is their MO again this offseason and as a result, we are not likely to acquire any significant difference makers. If so, then our advancement in the playoffs becomes very dependent on a return to 2019 levels by Garver/Kepler and relatively healthy seasons by Donaldson and Buxton. Is that asking too much?

But the question is: are the Twins in a "go-for-it" mode in 2021. If they are, relying on 2-3 rookies for significant contributions towards this goal is a crap shoot. OK, to give up Rosario for one of 2-3 rookie replacement fillers is acceptable. Replacing a second offensive position with another unproven player is a dangerous gamble, unbefitting of a team with championship aspirations. Remember, the Twins offense declined considerably in 2020. Do we gamble on Garver, Kepling, et. al. rebounding to 2019 form. I hope not!!