In that scenario, I think there is always a possibility for a crash while not probable. And no statistic can show that that one particular plane will crash even though the possibilities are there despite the probabilities. It's the same in this. While the possibilities and probabilities might predict a particlar outcome, I go into thinking, well, this could happen, it might even be likely, but until it does, for me it's just an interesting tidbit to discuss/debate but nothing to hang my hat on. There's no way any stat will be truly predictive; but they are definitely something to consider when tempering expectations.