Vanimal46
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Everything posted by Vanimal46
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The guaranteed contract number you mentioned does not include arbitration contracts or pre-arbitration contracts. If we tender everyone in arbitration, plus the league minimum contracts, we are sitting at $119 million and change. If the payroll range is $125-140, that's $20 to work with to find a Sonny Gray replacement and find a CF who can play more often than not. -
This should happen regardless of what happens to the payroll. It's easier to find someone who can play 3B well vs. someone who can play CF well. Both Lewis and Austin Martin should be training in the OF this offseason.
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Whelp, the payroll reduction news certainly put a damper on this topic. If Giolito is projected to get $12 million, then we might as well sit out free agency and just try to make a trade or two. Some of the guys in the "just right" category will now put the team at the very high end of their budget or above.
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This is not surprising news, but still disappointing to hear. The successful playoff run should easily cover the losses from the previous TV contract and the new one. I get it though... The Pohlads have always ran the Twins as a year over year business, so the playoff money means nothing to them when planning for 2024. As far as your 6 points John, I mentally said good bye to Sonny Gray the second the season ended. It felt like a 1% chance he was coming back before the payroll reduction was announced. I still think they need to keep one of Polanco and Farmer. Farmer has more versatility in the IF at this point in their careers... I think we may need to prepare to say goodbye to Polanco, not Farmer. Your final paragraph in point #6 can't be emphasized enough.
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Not surprising, but still disappointing nonetheless.
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I imagine it's all systems go to do a re-tool on the fly. Just going off of the top prospects on Brewer Fanatic I don't know what they want in a trade... 3 out of their top 7 prospects are SP in the upper minors. Would they be interested in someone from our lower levels like CJ Culpepper or Cory Lewis?
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Nice work! A common theme I'm seeing as people make their plans, is the Twins can go with quality over quantity this year with the budget. We don't need to stretch the $40 million to sign 8-9 players this year.
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Major League Ready’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint
Vanimal46 replied to Major League Ready's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Agreed. There are more impact SP available than impact bats in this FA class. If the bidding for Bellinger gets out of hand, then we should pivot to the SP free agents. I think the Twins' best chance at landing Bellinger is if they make an aggressive offer right away in the offseason. The big players will be busy making their bids for Ohtani. Bellinger may choose to wait for Ohtani to set the market, and the other teams who lost on Ohtani to bid on him. -
Tough call there. If $200 million is the number he’s seeking, the Twins would have to stretch the term length in that contract to at least 9 or 10 years.
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The 2024 Payroll Blueprint tool has launched!
Vanimal46 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No rush. It's just habitual clicking enter filling out a field from years of doing Excel. It took me by surprise when it went live in the Rumors section immediately after doing it. -
Major League Ready’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint
Vanimal46 replied to Major League Ready's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Nice plan MLR! The primary difference between your desire and mine is you want the big contract ($24 million) to go to a SP, and I want it to go to the best position player not named Shohei Ohtani. Either way, we both agree that there are enough funds to make a big splash for an impact player this offseason. Fun discussions to be had this offseason! -
Busy day today if you're a team looking to hire a manager... Craig Counsell will be joining the Cubs as their next manager. Stephen Vogt will be leading the Guardians next season. And the Mets hired Carlos Mendoza, who was the Yankees bench coach the last 4 seasons.
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I understand the hesitation when he was completely lost in 2021 and 2022. I still like his upside very much as a former MVP and the nice bounce back year in 2023. He profiles as a guy who will age gracefully in his mid 30s IMO. I envision him being an every day CF for the next 2-3 years, then transition to corner OF/1B in the last 2-3 years of the contract.
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Thanks to @weitz41correctly pointing out Glasnow's $25 million salary, I think I'm going to pivot and try to trade for Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee. He's also on the last year of arbitration and per MLB Trade Rumors, is projected to make $15 million.
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I'm probably too light on him but yeah, that's the idea. 1 year bounce back contract after he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL. Also, good catch on Glasnow's salary structure. He is indeed making $25 million. Damn, that throws a wrench in my plan to trade for him.
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If I had to cut costs, I would look to trade Polanco to get back to around $150 million, and replace him with a veteran like Solano for cheap or Austin Martin at the league minimum.
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Trade values are always tough to guess. Baseball Trade Values has Glasnow for Moran and Larnach as a slight overpay on behalf of the Twins. And frankly I'd take that deal in a heart beat. I am sure they will want a couple of prospects in the deal. With Bellinger, I have no problem going 6/$150 million. 8/$200 is where I would walk away.
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Realistically, I only see Giolito as an option on the list. It's fun to look at the top pitchers, but we have to remember this regime has not been interested in handing out huge contracts. As far as we know, we offered Yu Darvish ~$100 million when he accepted a 6/$126 deal from Chicago in 2018. We offered Zach Wheeler a fair sized deal that he turned down. Our largest agreed upon contract for a free agent pitcher continues to be Big Mike Pineda for $20 million total. I'm looking at trade options for pitching help. Tyler Glasnow looks like a feasible target at $15.2 million per year for 2024 and 2025. Corbin Burnes is in his final year of arbitration and Milwaukee needs bats. Logan Gilbert is under control through 2027 and will be very expensive to acquire.
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Wow I didn't realize their schedule was that full of cupcakes.
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The 2024 Payroll Blueprint tool has launched!
Vanimal46 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Thanks for putting this together again! May I suggest adding a prompt screen asking if you're ready to post? I tried it out this morning and didn't realize it automatically posts when you click enter after changing a field. Might save admin work for the mods... I know I wasn't ready to post mine. -
C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($8.00) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Cody Bellinger ($25.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) Utility: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Tyler Glasnow ($15.2M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Internal Reliever (Sands DFA) ($0.77M) RP: Spring Training Invite (Moran DFA) ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 5.57% under budget - I am sure this isn't right. I clicked enter and it posted immediately before making my changes. This is the pipe dream. The #1 target for me this offseason is Cody Bellinger. I think he is the ideal insurance for both Buxton and Kirilloff. My next big splash is making a trade for Tyler Glasnow from Tampa. In traditional Tampa fashion, they will look to get out of a bigger contract like his (year 1 of a 2 year $30.4 million contract).
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New Orleans is the only dicey matchup coming up in the next month. After that, it’s Denver, Chicago then the bye. We’re already on a 4 game win streak. Even with a backup QB, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be 7-5 or 8-4 at the bye.
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Well, if 13 teams need a new QB according to @Aggies7, Kirk will absolutely get a fully guaranteed 3-4 year deal. It won’t be from the Vikings.
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It was reported that extension discussions broke down this season because he wanted another 3 year fully guaranteed contract. Kwesi did not want to extend him that long and they agreed on this being the last year of the contract.
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If Kirk wants to sign a very team friendly 1 year deal, I’ll welcome him with open arms. If he still wants the 3 year, fully guaranteed contract, sorry dude. Good luck with your new team.
