prouster

Thorpe has a lot to prove, that’s for sure. If I remember correctly, he didn’t respond in the most mature way when he was cut last spring. It’s good to hear that he seems to have taken stock and figured some things out. Going purely on what I’ve seen of his performance (all at the MLB level), he hasn’t looked very impressive. His fastball velocity wasn’t great to begin with, so a few lost ticks last year were alarming. It’s good to see that his velocity has seemingly improved, albeit over I think one spring inning. FWIW, my understanding is that he topped out at 93 that day and mostly sat at about 90. We’ll see if it holds up or improves further. What has alarmed me more is his inability to spot the fastball. Guy can overcome moderate command issues if they’re throwing serious heat. Much harder to get over that if you’re around 90. Personally, I don’t have a lot of hope for Thorpe, but I’d be happy to be wrong. Edit: I missed that Thorpe had another pitching appearance. As of 3/9, he has tossed 3.0 innings with 5 strikeouts.

I'm glad to see Garver hit the ball with authority early in the spring. Hopefully he's got a handle on whatever his issues were last year. And I fully agree, catcher cam needs to be part of the game broadcasts.

If I'm comparing player A, who averages a 60 mph exit velocity and goes 3 for 10, with player B, who averages a 110 mph exit velocity and goes 2 for 10, I know who I think will wind up with more hits over the long term. This isn't some weird new stat. Players who hit the ball harder get more hits.

I can't find any data that granulated. Agree that FG's pitch values aren't predictive. They basically show how much WPA a player contributed by pitch type compared to their peers. My basic concern is that Garver had more pitches to hit and made contact with fewer of them, while the percentage of fastballs remained pretty much the same as in 2019. To me, this suggests that he was missing pitches he should have been hitting. I think that's quite alarming, because hitting fastballs is the absolute least a MLB hitter needs to be able to do. However, I believe this is a red flag and not a kiss of death. Hopefully it was just a slump or an injury. He's 30 and plays a tough position, though, so my fear is that he's already lost some bat speed.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mitch-garver/15161/stats#pitch-values Fangraphs' Pitch Value tool shows how a hitter fared against different pitch types. 0.0 is average. Above that is above average, and below is of course below average. Garver murdered fastballs in 2019 (24.8) and had a really hard time with them last year (-3.6). On top of that, the percentage of fastballs he saw last year ticked up by a little less than 1% compared to 2019—probably not enough to think twice about. His O-Swing% went down while is Z-Swing% went up. His contact % both outside and inside the zone went down (Z-Contact% went from from 88% in 2019 to 76.5% in 2020). He also saw a higher overall percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than in 2019, and his swinging strike % ballooned from 8% to 13%. This all suggests he was swinging and missing at more pitches he should have hit, many of which were fastballs.

You're entitled to your opinion, of course. I just don't see a distinction between "this team is less exciting than previous [objectively crappy] ones" and "I am the least excited I've been about a Twins team in a long time." I don't have the post pulled up, but I think in an earlier one you even said the bad ones were more exciting for you. Again, that's your right. It's just confusing to me, especially given the run of good baseball the team has played over the last couple years.

Maeda—and any other pitcher—can only play in the games that are scheduled. He pitched extremely well in those games last year. A full season at that level would produce north of 6 fWAR. Liriano had one or two years that were comparable. You mentioned Hughes’ one good season. Ervin Santana was water in the desert, but he never had a season for the Twins that came close. Obviously Maeda is a regression candidate. No one has said he’ll perfectly reproduce his 2020 over a full season. But he did post career bests in K%, BB%, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, exit velocity, and hard hit %. And he didn’t outperform his peripherals. They all support his excellent performance and suggest that he made real strides. My gripe is that some folks don’t seem to appreciate how good Maeda actually was last year, or that the front office made a smart and creative trade to bring him here. I also don’t understand the pessimism. I don’t expect the Twins to win 100 games or anything (though I happen to believe they’re a legit World Series contender), but to say this team is less exciting than the squads of the mid-teens—when the rotation consisted of people like Cole De Vries, Sam Deduno, and Pedro Hernandez—is mind boggling and frankly comes off as trolling.

If was a Yankees fan in 1961, I’d want Roger Maris on my team in 1962. No one has said Maeda is the greatest pitcher in the league.

Agree it hurt to lose Graterol. We’ll see how he develops and if he ever starts again. Regardless, I think it’s an under appreciatd trade simply because of how good Maeda pitched and the contract he’s on. Off the top of my head, it’s arguably the best trade the organization has made since AJ went to San Francisco. I actually don’t think it really matters if Graterol becomes elite or flames out. Maeda pitched like a mad man last year and seems like he made some real improvements. I just get frustrated when I see people making criticisms I don’t think are fair against people who have a really hard job that doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Baseball should be fun.

He stopped hitting fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag. If you can’t hit fastballs, MLB pitchers will eat you for lunch. Hopefully he finds his stroke again. We’ll see what happens with him if the ball is indeed deadened, as the league says it will be.

This is the sticking point.

You mention the Maeda trade, but apparently that doesn’t count. The guy just put in the best performance they’ve gotten from a starter since Johan. Short season caveat, of course, but holy cow. Some people can’t be satisfied. Also worth noting they gave up a shortstop who flamed out in A-ball for Odorizzi. He’s not Syndergaard (everyone would complain about the stupid trade for an injured starter if we acquired him), but he was an All-Star and pitched very well in the 2019 ALDS. Falvey is a really good POBO.

The team lost 100 games in 2016. By then, Buxton had made his catastrophic rookie debut, Sano had raised serious questions about his ability to not strike out and actually tap into his immense raw power in live action, and there were no obviously good pitching prospects other than Berrios, who had just made half a season's worth of starts at the MLB level with an ERA over 8. This was unambiguously not the rosy situation you remember. In only a couple of years, Falvey and Levine have completely overhauled the team's player development system. They have modernized their approach to acquiring and developing pitchers. They have signed and traded for multiple impact players—Maeda, Colome, Donaldson, Odorizzi, and Pineda probably being the most notable. The majority of their transactions have indeed been unremarkable, but that's true of all 30 MLB teams. No one makes major transactions the majority of the time. Not one single team. There are only so many superstars to go around. Nonetheless, Falvey and Levine have built a consistent winner in Minnesota, and they've done so largely by raising the team's floor. This is a good team, and I'm sorry you aren't looking forward to watching them. Yes, it can all break down if certain players under perform or get hurt. But I guess I'd be angry as a Yankees fan if Cole, Judge, Stanton, etc. got hurt. I might believe Cashman didn't do enough during the off-season. I'd probably be wrong, though.

I’d say it may hurt Cruz the most by default. He was signed basically to hit home runs. If that ability diminishes, then it will be hard to see what (on field) value he would even bring. I guess he could become a prolific doubles hitter.

Well, on the day I’m making this post the Dodgers didn’t sign anyone. Cheapskates.

This was a major point of leverage for the front office. The point of the article seems to be that they had good awareness of the situation and used that awareness to negotiate a pretty team friendly contract.

Too bad Bert retired. It would’ve been fun to see what kinds of mispronunciations he would have inevitably come up with.

Galen would be great, but I think they missed their bite at the apple when Arizona traded for him.

I bet several teams wish they kept Nelson Cruz. The Angels might wish they kept Simmons. The White Sox and Colome . . .

Good signing. I’d like to see them bring in another starter to bolster the back end of the rotation.

The Twins have Arraez and Polanco who can both play second base and hit as well or better than Schoop. As far as Rosario goes, I'm a little sad he went to Cleveland, but I'm glad he was able to get a decent salary.

The confusion is that it's not at all clear what stat you're using.

With all due respect, I cannot imagine any GM giving up more for Garver than Buxton.

This is a really great point. I haven’t thought about it this way. PDX Twin, expanding minds!

Relievers tend to be more volatile year to year than other players. Robles was very bad in 2020, of course with the usual caveats. There’s a debate to be had over how large of a red flag the season really was, but there can be no doubt that it was indeed a red flag. He could improve a lot next year, or he could be washed up. I think it would be foolish to trust him to pick up where he left off in 2019. He should have to earn high leverage innings.