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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. It’s worth noting that as of this morning, Baltimore’s position players have totaled more fWAR than Cleveland’s. The Orioles are one of the worst teams in recent memory, but they’re still Major Leaguers.
  2. Maybe you should start a thread to discuss trades from past seasons. It makes the site almost unreadable when people clog every thread with the same discussion.
  3. Well, that was fun.
  4. This is the rub. At what point to projections turn into self-fulfilling prophecies?
  5. I think you and I agree on more things than we disagree on. My main point is that none of these guys are fighting for a roster spot in a vacuum. There’s already a lot of information about every one of them available publicly, and I’d imagine a great deal more that the clubs keep in house. And that’s before they ever sniff the 40 man. I’m not saying that no one ever does something unexpected, or that the projection systems get things right every time (I’m actually pretty skeptical of the way people tend to use projections for these and other reasons). But, I think the odds are a lot better than not that Austin won’t do a whole lot in the majors, simply because there’s a lot of information about him already, and a million other guys like him have flamed out. I don’t think he necessarily needs 1000 at bats for the front office to feel relatively confident about this. As for depth, I agree with others who have said there are a number of guys in the minors we could reasonably expect to replicate Austin’s performance if needed.
  6. I think you’re dismissing the role of scouting and projecting way too easily. Kepler, to use your example, is extremely athletic, can play a premium defensive position well, has little mileage relative to other guys his age, and actually showed how flashy his tools can be in real minor league (and now Major League!) games. Austin has shown he can hit the ball a mile, but he has also shown his extreme defensive limitations and an alarming tendency to strike out. In other words, Kepler has proven he can do many things at the highest level; Austin has proven that he can sometimes do one thing at the highest level. Is Austin destined to fail? No. But there’s a much greater chance a guy like him will fail than a guy like Kepler. It’s not all about opportunity.
  7. Ah. I should read the whole thread.
  8. I’m surprised anyone really cares they traded Joe Benson—I mean, Tyler Austin.
  9. Do you actually think this is the case?
  10. Buxton had a rough game last night. But after four games, he's hitting .308/.357/.538. This adds up to an OPS of .896. His wRC+ is 168 (i.e. 68% above league average). He has added .2 fWAR to the team total. Believe it or not, the season doesn't start over every midnight. Buxton had a rough game, but he's off to the best start of his MLB career.
  11. Physically, yes, he looks a lot like Byron Buxton. But he looks nothing like the wigged out kid from the last couple springs. Mainly, he can tell a ball from a strike, and he has been hitting the ball with some authority.
  12. If anyone could take third in that situation, it’s Buxton. But if anyone’s able to score on a blooper, it’s also Buxton. I agree not to steal, because the throw from home to third is only 90 feet, and Buxton is going to score on anything that lands in the outfield grass whether he starts on second or third. I don’t think the benefit of stealing outweighs the risk in that spot. The problem was that Kepler didn’t find a way to get him over.
  13. I’m concerned about how wound up you and several others seem to be about spring training interviews.
  14. You weren't pointing out a common symptom of migraines. You placed your words in scare quotes, and the symptom you named is one that a lot of people ignorantly criticized Mauer for experiencing. I call malarkey.
  15. An irrelevant cheap shot against Buxton and Mauer in a few simple words. Exquisite.
  16. I understand that this is a retrospective on the Twins' process of deciding who to take with that particular draft pick, but I don't understand how the piece is framed. Hasn't the question of Mauer or Prior been settled for about 15 years?
  17. I agree. A few times that he's been caught looking the ball has been several inches off the plate. Probably not enough to meaningfully budge his K%, but I wonder if he's been expanding the zone as a result.
  18. Boy, lots of players to worry about on this 7-4 team.
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