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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. prouster
    I think you're underestimating Lewis's talent. He's a legit 1-1 pick. KLAW, for example, likes him better than last year's first overall pick, Mickie Moniak. Callis called him a legitimate choice for first overall. He might not be "universally considered a great hitter," but basically everyone with a professional opinion says his hit tool is/could be anywhere from plus to plus-plus. Longenhagen gives it a 60 future value, for example, which would make him an allstar. His frame is still pretty lanky (he very recently turned 18), so it's easy to imagine him adding power as he gets older, as well. Not to mention that he'll likely play an up the middle position even if he moves off SS. My personal hope was that they'd nab Gore or Greene 1-1 (in that order), but I think Lewis is a very good pick. It's not like he's some fringy first rounder. Most outlets have tagged him with a 55FV, which is the same as Gore, McKay, and Wright (the latter two are 60FV for some) depending on where you look.
  2. prouster
    I just want to point out how incredible this thread is.
  3. prouster
    There are still some pretty decent upside guys left. Enlow, for example.
  4. prouster
    Also true. I'm referring to the general consensus at the time, whatever that means.
  5. prouster
    Very true. He's turned out a lot better than expected.
  6. prouster
    I don't mind it. If he turns out 2/3 as good as Correa—who was mocked around 7th overall for the most part—it's an excellent pick.
  7. prouster
    This is very interesting. Baz, perhaps? I'd be surprised if he fell that far. Maybe someone like Sam Carlson? I would like that, as I think the local boy is being punished in prospect rankings for coming from a cold weather state.
  8. prouster
    I don't advocate the following at all, but am throwing it out there to measure opinions in the room: What if the Twins take someone who will likely be an expensive sign at 1-1 (Greene, let's say) and hold firm on an asking price we'll below slot? If he signs, excellent. If he doesn't, they get a high pick and the entailed bonus money next year, when there's likely more talent atop the draft. Again, I don't think they should do this. Just a thought.
  9. prouster
    LENIII just tweeted that the "Lewis steam is real" and that McKay and Greene are "also in the picture." Says it's coming down to money.
  10. prouster
    I guess I can see why people think McKay could add velocity/generally grow as a pitcher by working on it full time. But people assumed the same thing about Kohl Stewart before he gave up football. So, is there any evidence whatsoever behind this assumption, or are people just making up stuff?
  11. prouster
    My guesses are A) they genuinely like McKay, B ) they're blowing smoke in the hopes that someone else will lower their asking price, or C) McKay himself is cheap and someone they think is good enough to justify taking 1-1. I have no idea which would be most or least likely.
  12. prouster
    This is one of the better TD articles I've read in a while. Some really bizarre and kind of half baked comments, but the article itself is compelling and presents interesting data.
  13. prouster
    Do you mean McKay? Wright usually sits 93-95 and has topped out at 97. I don't know enough about mechanics to comment extensively, but he seems balanced to me. He should probably be using his lower half more, but he repeats his delivery well, which to me says he's in control of his body.
  14. prouster
    I don't understand the outrage. Is anyone surprised by this roster? Were they supposed to trade for Trout and Kershaw? I don't get it. The only real surprise to me is Park's reassignment, but as has been pointed out a few times, his 40-man status (or non-status, I guess) would mean exposing someone else to the waiver wire. I personally dislike that Santana is still around, so there's a spot that could have gone to Park. But I'm not that upset about it, because they could make that change tomorrow if they wanted to. Park is a 30 year old DH whose ST stats could be a mirage, kind of like Hicks a few years back. Nor am I upset about a backup catcher. Yes, you want value from all 25 roster spots, but there is no one who represents a viable upgrade from Gimenez. JRM maaayyybe has some upside, but I don't see how that could be met sitting on the bench. Not to mention that whatever upside he has is severely diminished from his 2016 season. People seem to have forgotten that he was really, really bad last year at both the MLB and AAA levels. Garver simply needs more time in the upper minors. I also don't understand the anger about the bullpen. It makes sense to carry the extra arm when there are so many question marks in the rotation. This is also a part of the team that is more or less reassembled every year. So, if a guy like Chargois isn't there now, he could be next week, or next month, or next year. It depends on when he's ready. He was pretty bad last year and this spring. For all we know, he's Jim Hoey. Personally, I'm just excited that it's baseball season again. When the Twins have a chance at the pennant, I'll start getting upset about their roster decisions.
  15. prouster
    Well, there are his 2016 stats. In 83 Games at Triple-A: .236/.286/.323/.609 In 26 MLB Games: .146/.193/.220/.413 Small samples and recency bias for each, yes. But holy cow.
  16. prouster
    Ok, but what you are describing here isn't trading "elite prospects for multiple prospects," as you said in an earlier post. What you're proposing here is to trade a veteran nearing the end of his arbitration years. This exact scenario (sort of) played out this winter with Brian Dozier. In fact, it happens all the time. It's why the Twins traded Johan Santana all those years ago. What you're talking about here is wildly different from what you actually proposed--trading elite prospects for multiple prospects. You're moving the goal posts in order to make it seem like you said something you didn't actually say.
  17. prouster
    We are in complete agreement on this. The only reason not to pursue expensive FA talent is because it will cost the Pohlads too much money. Of course, that's a pretty good reason to think they'll try to find shrewder ways to spend.
  18. prouster
    (I'll stop posting for a while after this one so as not to spam the thread.) Well, Ervin Santana signed the fourth largest FA contract for any pitcher during the 2015-16 offseason. The larger ones went to Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. Santana's was the ninth largest contract overall that year. Maybe that's an indictment on the TR regime, or maybe Ervin was a free agent of note. I lean toward the latter. Someone else also mentioned the Hughes contract. Just throwing it out there.
  19. prouster
    Who has done this? I don't mean to be snarky, but I literally can't think of a single prospect for prospect swap that included a player with elite upside. The reason is that those kinds of players are exceedingly rare, and the chance that they hit is way more valuable than the (maybe?) lower risk strategy of having several decent prospects. Not to mention one pre-arb player who puts up as many WAR as 2-3 pre-arb guys is inherently more valuable to the team. The drop off after number five or so on any top-100 prospect list is incredibly steep, to the point where number 10 is typically closer in upside to number 40 than to number 1. So, yeah. I don't see how this is a legitimate rebuilding strategy. For argument's sake, imagine the Cubs trading Kris Bryant for something like Severino and Judge before the 2015 season.
  20. prouster
    Honestly, given the benefit of hindsight, they only player I'd rather have than Gordon is Turner (maybe Conforto). Hoffman is definitely interesting, too. His MiLB track record is pretty good, but the peripherals come with a tinge of meh. The strikeouts have generally gone up as he's advanced, but so have the walks. A few of the arms strike me as topping out at Gibson on a good day, which is fine and certainly welcomed on a team deprived of quality pitching. However, college arms that are at AA two and a half years after being drafted don't scream upside to me. I'll take the 21 year old who can stick at short.
  21. prouster
    I agree that the Twins should invest more in the international market. It's a way to acquire moderate to high upside pitching with relatively minimal risk. In my opinion, teams choosing high in the Rule 4 draft are best suited going with college bats. Bryant, Schwarber, Swanson, Bregman, Conforto, Benintendi, and, yes, Turner were all taken high in the first round over the last couple years. Of course, so were Seager, Correa, and a few other nice HS bats. There have been some nice pitchers (Finnegan, Rodon, etc.), although pitchers strike me as being too risky for a high pick, unless someone like Strasburg is on the board. That said, I'm not sure how wise it is to point at the Gordon pick as evidence of general futility. It's a single data point, and we really don't know what we have in Gordon.
  22. prouster
    This is super interesting. Perhaps my question is without the scope of your study, but is there any way to tell whether it was participation in contact sports that increased violent tendencies, or whether people predisposed to violence gravitate toward contact sports? This seems like it could be a chicken and egg scenario, basically. I'd be really interested to hear what you have to say.
  23. prouster
    I agree. I just think that if maintaining the status quo was a priority, they would have hired Antony. Why take the outside guy if you don't have to? I don't think the front office is so conniving as to hire an up and coming executive simply to hide their real intentions. In any case, I was hoping for McCleod, probably because I know the most about him. The Falvey hire seems promising, though. Cleveland seems to do well with only a moderately talented roster (excluding Kluber and Carrasco, of course).
  24. prouster
    I don't think this will be an issue. If they wanted to maintain the status quo, they would have hired Rob Antony.
  25. prouster
    As someone else mentioned, there doesn't appear to be a player locked into the number one spot, although it's still really early. As long as the Twins are choosing in the top five (or even ten this year), which they certainly will, they'll come away with a really good prospect. A few college catchers are currently expected to go very early, which would be nice. There's also a HS shortstop in Florida who is only 16. He'll be 17 when the draft rolls around. Tall and lanky, I've read, with some pop in his bat and the athleticism to stick at the position. Has a nice swing. Can't have to many quality SS prospects. Vanderbilt's CF seems really good, as well. There are also a few college pitchers getting top-ten buzz, although I like the strategy of taking hitters early, myself. Of course, it's still really early, and some of these guys will fall off the map while others rocket up. Given the depth of really, really good prospects in the upcoming draft, I see no reason why the Twins wouldn't want to win as many remaining games as possible.
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