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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. prouster
    I think you mean 2 WAR. Miguel Sano, for example, was worth 0.8 WAA last year. Rosario was -0.3. Berrios, 0.4. They probably shouldn't trade for Gerrit Cole if this is the standard we want to apply. He was only worth 1.1. Chris Archer is also a bum, I guess. -0.6. And I don't get all this fuss about Yu Darvish. He was only worth 0.2.
  2. prouster
    I agree that a team option for 2020 would have been nice, but I don't think it's a mistake there isn't one. For all we know, that was a deal breaker for Piñeda. If he pitches well next year, they can offer him a QO and get a decent draft pick.
  3. prouster
    Are you suggesting they should have signed him to a longer contract? This kind of move isn't unprecedented. Tyson Ross. Kris Medlen. Drew Smyly. Etc.
  4. prouster
    Thank you for the conversation. We disagree on a few of irreconcilable points: 1) what value means 2) whether one must look past a single stat in determining value 3) whether one must account for the margin of error when using the aforementioned stat(s). I really think it's cherry picking to look at WAA and WAA only, when other stats tell a more holistic story. Overall, I like this signing without feeling passionately about it. In essence it's a one year deal, and those basically never hurt teams.
  5. prouster
    That's just not true. Last year he was worth 1.1 fWAR and .7 bWAR in about half a season's worth of starts. 2011: 3.2 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR. 2012 & 2013: did not play. 2014: 2.2 fWAR & 2.7 bWAR. 2015: 3.5 fWAR & 1.7 bWAR. 2016: 3.2 fWAR & 1.2 bWAR. For his career, he has an ERA+ of 101, almost exactly league average. Career FIP of 3.60 and career xFIP of 3.33. Having an opinion is one thing, but it's simply false to say Piñeda has provided negative value. One could say he has been below average in certain areas, but there is indeed still some value in that.
  6. prouster
    Because it's pretty cheap for a solid starting pitcher. Of course, we all know why it's cheap.
  7. prouster
    It seems disingenuous to paint Piñeda as having negative value. He's a solid pitcher when healthy. And any signing is of course up for debate, but running with the assumption that there weren't other suitors seems to conflate opinion with fact. Finally, I'm curious why the order of this and other potential transactions makes a difference. I'm not disputing that it does--the reason just isn't clear to me.
  8. prouster
    Why do you say that?
  9. prouster
    The exact wording in the other post was that there "was no need to try to guess whether the Twins were in a chase for a playoff spot," because they "clearly were." To me, the conclusion is that a playoff spot is an obvious outcome—it should not have come as a surprise. (And not to be pedantic, but I didn't say the other poster "said" anything. I said they "suggested" something, if we want to argue semantics.) I don't know what your definition of consistent is, but it must be different from mine. They hovered around the top of the division for the first two months before nosediving in July. They played extremely well in August, which got them back into the race. At the deadline, they were 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and needed to pass four teams to get it. Like I said in my other post, their playoff odds on that day were 5.6% according to Fangraphs. These are all facts, and in my opinion they all justify trading a couple of okay pitchers whose contracts were expiring two months later.
  10. prouster
    That's actually not true. On July 31st, the Twins were 6.5 games out of first place, 4 games behind the Royals for second in the division, and in addition to KC were behind the Orioles, Rays, Mariners, and Red Sox for a Wild Card spot. Their playoff odds were 5.6%. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=2017-07-31 To suggest that on July 31st a playoff spot was an obvious outcome is revisionist history.
  11. prouster
    I don't know. A ton of things went right that needed to in order to even stay in the WC race, let alone win a playoff spot. If Falvey and Levine could have foreseen what actually happened, they should be working on Wall Street and not in baseball.
  12. prouster
    And even then, they'd have needed something like six more wins to catch up to the Yankees. It seems incredibly unlikely that Garcia and Kintzler would have been enough to make up that much ground.
  13. prouster
    A player's nation of origin has nothing to do with his success or failure in Major Leagur Baseball. Nor does a previous player's nation of origin have anything to do with a later player's success or failure. How many times does this need to be said?
  14. prouster
    What a bunch of clowns.
  15. prouster
    That's a good point on what American-born means. Nishioka has literally nothing to do with Otani or Darvish.
  16. prouster
    Every year amateur American players get multi million dollar signing bonuses, many of whom never play in the majors. My point is that national origin has nothing to do with a player's success. Plenty of Japanese players have had fine MLB careers (Nomo, Ichiro, Matsui, a bunch of relief pitchers). Plenty have also busted. Are you skeptical when the Twins draft Caucasian players from the U.S. because Adam Johnson busted?
  17. prouster
    Park is from Korea, and Otani is from Japan. They're separate countries who have historically hated one another. Do you apply this standard to American-born players? Plenty of them have busted much worse than Park.
  18. prouster
    How do you feel about Stewart? It's definitely not a perfect comparison, but their MiLB track records aren't all that different.
  19. prouster
    This is a great approach for the post season, but I don't think it would be sustainable over a 162 game schedule.
  20. prouster
    Why do you say this?
  21. prouster
    Shaw would be nice. I'd be curious to see what they'd need to offer to land Betances from the Yankees. His recent walk problems, combined with the arbitration fiasco and the number of other dominant arms in the New York bullpen, could mean he's expendable. Maybe a lower pressure environment would allow him to find himself.
  22. prouster
    This actually doesn't seem to be the case: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/rumors-cards-stanton-yelich-rangers-yu-cobb-tribe.html https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/quick-hits-yu-rangers-mariners-brantley-d-backs-nats.html It'll be interesting to see how the market plays out for FA starters. With Tanaka choosing not to opt out, there's one less high profile arm available. However, some of the usual big spenders seem like they may be reluctant to add a large contract this offseason, when next year's class is packed with so much more youth and talent. MLBTR predicts Darvish going to the Cubs for 6/160, which amounts to just over 26 million AAV. This seems about right, but I wonder if his market might be somewhat depressed due to his injury history, relatively modest output in 2017, and the fact that there are several enticing options that will certainly cost less. That could open the door to a non-traditional spender (maybe or maybe not the Twins) plunking down some cash. That said, I'd rather see the Twins target a cheaper starter so that they can also fill out their pen with a couple arms and extend Buxton and/or others.
  23. prouster
    The Royals won the AL pennant the year before, so . . . two consecutive fluke years? I hope the decision makers aren't discounting proven methods of roster construction because they're less aesthetically pleasing.
  24. prouster
    If Houston is the model you want to use, then ... what? Do you see why some readers may have trouble figuring out the coherence of what you're trying to say? This will be my last post responding to you. I have no more interest in debating a non-move that's almost a year old and, even without the benefit of hindsight, was clearly the proper one. Now the discussion is going every which way to no apparent end.
  25. prouster
    Are you suggesting the Twins close shop for the next five years immediately after earning a wild card spot? Trade everyone for anything? And this doesn't even begin to address any of the counterpoints I offered in my post. What do you think of Houston's methods of acquiring pitching? Because they didn't really trade veterans for prospects. Not that the Twins shouldn't—Houston is just a bad example of the point you're trying to (I think) argue.
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