I think you’re dismissing the role of scouting and projecting way too easily. Kepler, to use your example, is extremely athletic, can play a premium defensive position well, has little mileage relative to other guys his age, and actually showed how flashy his tools can be in real minor league (and now Major League!) games. Austin has shown he can hit the ball a mile, but he has also shown his extreme defensive limitations and an alarming tendency to strike out. In other words, Kepler has proven he can do many things at the highest level; Austin has proven that he can sometimes do one thing at the highest level. Is Austin destined to fail? No. But there’s a much greater chance a guy like him will fail than a guy like Kepler. It’s not all about opportunity.