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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Basically, those articles and some others like it, have determined that just because a team's Pythag says a team's record should have been such and such based on runs allowed and runs scored, doesn't mean they really should. We had a few blowouts go our way against Detroit that likely shifted us a game or two and so on.
  2. jimmer
    'Pythagorean record is a method for predicting a team’s winning percentage based on its runs scored and allowed. Bill James originally proposed the idea, and formulated that winning percentage was equal to the runs scored squared divided by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed. Since then, researchers have found a better exponent than two, one that varies based on the team’s run environment.' http://www.hardballtimes.com/pondering-pythagoras/
  3. jimmer
    'Rationalizing the difference between a team’s Pythagorean record and its actual record tops my list of analytical pet peeves. I don’t mean to pick on Joe; he’s a very good analyst and a fine writer. I’m using him as an example that even the best will engage in this fool’s errand.' 'There are two main reasons why teams under- or over-perform their Pythagorean records: 1) a bizarre run distribution that is distorted from its typical Weibullian shape and 2) an inordinate number of blowouts or squeakers going for or against you.' 'It’s time to stop trying to outsmart ourselves. While we may be able to point to certain factors that have caused a team to have a large Pythagorean differential, it’s folly to use those facts as evidence that the trend will continue.' 'Nate Silver has noted that there is an ongoing problem in baseball – and in analysis, I would argue – in putting too much emphasis on current goings-on and not enough on the big picture. One might consider analysts trying to rationalize Pythagorean differentials as part of that problem.' http://www.hardballtimes.com/outsmarting-pythagoras/
  4. jimmer
    I think Dozier is the best 2B in the division.
  5. jimmer
    Chief and I were talking about Mauer's career slashline and how that's apparently not awesome. His career slashline is better than Carew's and Gwynn's. And we can add Boggs in there too. All these hitters were hitters like Mauer. And none of them had to do this while enduring the rigors of the catcher position.
  6. jimmer
    If 2009 Joe is what you need to see to say he's awesome then yes, he won't be awesome. That's easy. He was that guy once, which really means he's never been that guy in reality because extreme outliers don't give us a realistic view of what a player's level is. Tony Gwynn is going to be disappointed you don't think he had an awesome career. Carew too. Oh, and neither of them had to play catcher for around half their career while doing it.
  7. jimmer
    A better hitter than the guy who has won 3 batting titles and has a career line of .319/.401/.459. Our standards are pretty high for this guy. I think if he decides to force the issue in order to appease the masses he'll be a worse hitter. I'd rather let Joe be Joe. A healthy Joe is an awesome Joe.
  8. jimmer
    It says there are a lot of players in your league I'd like to play fantasy baseball with or that your league is small or the format is bad. Or that your players are easily spooked by one bad year. Most fantasy baseball leagues don't count defense other than errors. Many fantasy leagues will think Howard is better than Mauer. He's not. Fantasy Baseball formats often doesn't reflect reality on who is an overall good ballplayer and who isn't. Someone decides what stats deserve the most points which ones deserve too little, which ones don't have any value at all. Most go by the most traditional stats possible. Whether or not he's drafted or not by some fantasy players doesn't really tell us anything about what he'll do.
  9. jimmer
    Mauer seems to get pitched outside...a lot. If that continues, I hope he doesn't still try and pull the ball or we're going to continue to see an uptick in 4-3 putouts. or 4-6-3 DPs. Seems that's what he was trying to do last year as well.
  10. jimmer
    Have faith man, the Twins FO is doing everything right and there's always a way to justify that's the case. So sit back and enjoy the show. I mean, if you like 5 season repeats.
  11. jimmer
    'Just wait till next year.' - says 2015, 2014, 2013. This is a rebuilding year and now is the time to see what we have in our prospects. Doesn't mean we actually have to promote them to the majors to see what they can do at the major league level.
  12. jimmer
    'So back to the Rochester Red Wings goes the 25-year-old May, for his eighth professional season. Eighth.'-Reusse
  13. jimmer
    Chicago W Sox and the Giants are really the only two teams in the majors I very strongly dislike. I don't often hate, but when I do, I prefer to hate the Chicago White Sox. Stay thirsty my friends. Chicago's three greatest disasters: The Fire, The Flood, The White Sox.
  14. jimmer
    I expect his slash line right near his career slash line and a wRC+ in the 130s at minimum. Wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 140s. And since this division just happens to have two beasts at 1B in Abreu and Cabrera, that puts him third in the division at 1B, but still top 10 in the majors.
  15. jimmer
    Mauer is another year removed from concussion. He's had one bad year in the last three years and that was last year, and that was after a concussion ended his 2013. And he's only had one other bad year in his career and that was 2011 when he played 1/2 a season.
  16. jimmer
    Three years? His 2013 was very good until the concussion (which is out of his control), his 2012 was also very good. So not sure what you were hoping for or how you think he hadn't rebounded. The people telling you he'd rebound must not have known his mean either. 2014 was an off year for him for sure, but he was showing good signs in the 2nd half as he gets further from his concussion.
  17. jimmer
    That report came out in 2011 I believe. I mentioned it earlier and posted a quote from the article.
  18. jimmer
    Mauer looks like he's in good shape to me. Then again, I have HDTV. Mauer, when healthy, makes in impact. Whether he does it the way some feel a 1B should or not is, sadly, debatable. Bulking up doesn't necessarily mean anyone is going to make 'an impact' more than if he didn't bulking up. It's about bat speed, torque, getting the barrel of the bat on the ball, knowing what kind of batter you are, etc.
  19. jimmer
    Yeah he is. Almost as old as our starting RF. Oh wait, I guess they are exactly the same age for a few months.
  20. jimmer
    good for him.
  21. jimmer
    I'm with you on the Cubs. I hope they make it to the playoffs this year and I think they will.
  22. jimmer
    A position battle. A position competition. Those phrases suggest that it's in the player's hands to perform and may the best players win. Problem is, and as you point out when you say a lot of things go into these decisions (as we all know, BTW), that's not the case. So maybe they should stop saying that, is my point (and that goes for most if not all teams). They should stop trying to sell that to the fans and players. The rest of what you're saying has nothing to do with my point. I wasn't asking why those guys didn't make it? I didn't think any of them would make it from the very beginning. I said so. But I kept being told there was competition. I guess because the FO said there was. Sano could make it, Meyer could make it. May could make it, look Rosario might too. Then when they didn't it's 'well, clearly they weren't ready'. None of the moves back to the minors surprised me. Span was doing the best in the three player battle for CF (Gomez, Pride, Span) when Gomez was named the winner and Pridie was gone quick in ST and never got a start in CF. Slowey had the best numbers of all 6 pitchers in competition for the 5 spots, he went to the pen. Who had the best ERA of all the guys up for the 5th spot this year? Were all these decisions wrong? Who knows. Could they all have been right, could be. But we're talking about the players and fans being told about a competition.
  23. jimmer
    Pohalds just saw the value of their team jump by almost 50% in one offseason, didn't they?
  24. jimmer
    yeah, but NEXT year.
  25. jimmer
    I couldn't disagree more about the Twins being a good ball club. They aren't as currently constructed at the MLB level.
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