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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Happy Easter, BTW. We have a baseball game that counts today. Not a Twins game, but a game.
  2. jimmer
    SOME basis for this skill. Assuming he continues that. Until we see him do it again and get the same results we won't know how repeatable it was. Cause right now we have year, not year to year ,data. I have faith that he will be able to buck the trend though. Hopefully it's not an outlier situation.We have to take into account Neil Allen's influence this year with the changeup emphasis. How will that affect things.
  3. jimmer
    'While we can pretty confidently say that Gibson will remain a ground ball pitcher, we don't know that the popups will remain. Matt Klaasen's work with correlations has illustrated that the latter statistic fluctuates a lot, with a measly .422 year-to-year correlation.
  4. jimmer
    well, as the attached article said, he's not exactly young. Now would be nice for him to throw it into high gear if he has a higher gear.
  5. jimmer
    If I remember correctly, Fangraphs is going to incorporate infield flies induced into their FIP equation starting this season. which will make Gibson look better if he can maintain this skill. They feel that infield flies are converted into outs at such an incredibly high percentage across the league that it really isn't an out that is dependent on any defensive skill. 'Rosenheck’s work argues (and, to be fair, others have made the point as well) that infield pop ups are essentially fielding independent as well. No major league team is “better” or “worse” at turning pop ups into outs – for all intents and purposes, they’re *always* outs. This makes them look a heck of a lot like strikeouts – they’re nearly always outs, and runners usually can’t advance on them. The fact that a pitcher’s infield fly% isn’t as stable as his K% just makes them more akin to home run rates.'
  6. jimmer
    How much laughing happened when he said it? I greatly admire Joe's ability and I expect healthy regression this year, but I doubt he wins the batting title this year. Thanks for the link. Good to see some predicting a good season for him.
  7. jimmer
    Well, we can see if your belief s true about the whole circle thing :-) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-may-have-weakened-a-weakness/ If you go to the link provided, in a stroy entitled 'The Twins may have weakened a weakness, you will see the chart for Heyward and Hunter. It's right below this paragraph: 'It’s difficult to be too hard on Hunter, of course, because he’s 39 years old. The expectation shouldn’t be that he’s going to be anything other than brutal in the outfield, and while you don’t really need a visual aid to compare last year’s worst right fielder to the best, I’ll show you the made/missed charts between Hunter and Jason Heyward anyway:' I don't think having Hunter would be so bad if he had an above average CF next to him and at least an average corner on the other end. Just my opinion
  8. jimmer
    I think if a team has ONE bad defensive corner OF starting for them they may be able to lessen the effect by shading a good-great defensive CF that way while allowing the okay to good OF on the other corner hold his own. I've seen a lot of that over the years. Having TWO REALLY bad defenders on both corners plus, at best, an average defensive CF, is going to cause problems as it has the last few seasons. Especially when the pitching staff has underwhelming stuff that results in a lot of contact.
  9. jimmer
    we aren't a good team though. our pitching staff, such as it is, doesn't need more handicaps than the ones their own mediocre stuff creates.. seemed to have a pretty big impact on our team the last couple years as outs became singles and doubles which extended innings and allowed runs to score when it would have been three outs. didn't help our CF defense wasn't any good either, and this year it likely won't be either. I'm curious where does defense matter on a team, if at all?
  10. jimmer
    We'll see. Escobar's 2014 offense may or may not be sustainable and even then it wasn't near what Zobrist was when he finally shed the 'just utility guy' label. Zobrist forced Maddon's hand by having a mid .800 OPS in 2008, significantly higher than Escobar's breakout offensive season by about 130 OPS points. I'm rooting for Escobar though. Love to see him start on a MLB team and improve on last year's numbers.
  11. jimmer
    I'm not sure having two of the worst fielding fielding corner OF in the game play MORE will make the OF defense BETTER, but one can hope.
  12. jimmer
    I get what you are saying in regards to getting him playing time, but In fairness, Zobrist is a much better player than Escobar and I doubt Maddon does with Escobar what he did for Zobrist. That's why he averaged 153 games played and over 650 PAs in the last 6 years.
  13. jimmer
    thanks.
  14. jimmer
    What was average starter ERA and average reliever ERA in the NL last year?
  15. jimmer
    I get your point and it's valid, but if you are just looking at average starter ERA compared to his, that isn't taking into account ballparks or run environment. That's why I look at ERA+ instead of looking at average ERA. I mean, if I have to talk ERA.
  16. jimmer
    And we also have to take into account ballpark, which ERA+ does. It's not just about what the starting pitcher's average ERA was across the league compared to his because they all pitch in different parks too. So when just comparing ERA across the board, a key component of ERA+ is missed. 'For instance, if the average ERA in the league is 4.00, and the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark that favors hitters, and his ERA is 4.00, then his ERA+ will be over 100. Likewise, if the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark favoring pitchers, then the pitcher's ERA+ will be below 100. As a result, ERA+ can be used to compare pitchers across different run environments. In the above example, the first pitcher may have performed better than the second pitcher, even though his ERA is higher. ERA+ can be used to account for this misleading impression.' It's why I took into account ERA+ and not ERA. And, to be honest, I'm not a big fan of judging pitcher by ERA anyway, but I know many are, so I showed that and also WAR. I was going to break out FIP, you know.
  17. jimmer
    When looking at ERA+, he was a below average starter last year and has been a below average starter two of the last three seasons. When looking at WAR, he averaged around a 2.8 WAR the last two seasons but if you go back another year he's been below a 2 WAR pitcher on average over the last three seasons. ZiPS projected him to have a WAR under 1 this year before the suspension. Not sure how much we are really losing by having him gone for 1/2 a season. His best attribute is that he normally pitches a lot of innings, which is valuable but more valuable when you are really good.
  18. jimmer
    I like a lot of your ideas. Not sure I have much to add. I honestly think that it won't be more than a couple months until Santana is back in CF (whether that's because of the futility in CF or Santana not being able to handle the shortstop position at the ML level) and Escobar is at short, though.
  19. jimmer
    I like Escobar, but before we say he's proven anything, let's see him repeat how he did. I'm not down on him but, like D. Santana, I'd like to see him show he can do it more than one season before I'm convinced he's really as good as some think he is. Having said that, in order to do that, he has to play and the good sign is he didn't tail off the last couple months (something one might expect when a player plays way more than they had before at the ML level). Instead he bounced back.
  20. jimmer
    Overall team defense was a huge factor the last couple seasons, especially OF defense, and made the pitching look even worse than it is. We have done nothing to address that.
  21. jimmer
    His ERA+ in the last three seasons: 2014: 92 2013: 124 2012: 74 Best thing about him is he pitches a lot of innings close to league average (for those who like ERA)...but not this year.
  22. jimmer
    There goes his All Star game chances for this year.
  23. jimmer
    'Paging Mike Pelfrey. Mike Pelfrey to the rotation!'
  24. jimmer
    'It's almost funny how so many are getting worked up about the opening day roster.' Every game in the season counts the same. Wins in April count the same as wins in September. Losses do too. I don't think it's surprising that people prefer to have the best team possible right out of the gate. Now whether or not a consensus could be reached between 20 fans on what the best 25 man roster would be, much less the whole fan base, is a question to which the answer is almost assuredly no.
  25. jimmer
    Maybe. Not sure about his body type though. He seems more, um, filled out than Magglio was in his younger days. But maybe his style of game. Not sure.
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