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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Yeah, I'd really wait on Arcia. Can't play defense, streaky offense. Maybe he's our future DH? Maybe.
  2. jimmer
    I mentioned trade due to the MI prospects we have coming up. You know, kind of how we traded Span when we had a young Revere and Hicks waiting...
  3. jimmer
    No, they absolutely could have gone year to year. Signing him now lets a potential trade partner know exactly what kind of salary they'd be taking on.
  4. jimmer
    Or, if he's doing well, he gets traded in the next couple years.
  5. jimmer
    I think I actually guessed 6 years for 42-44M. Though I said I wouldn't be surprised if it was higher. I think we got a bargain, myself. And it makes him valuable trade bait if he continues to perform like he has the last couple years.
  6. jimmer
    With the way the salary goes up, looks like it would have been around 22-24M for the two FA years if they were part of it, if not more. I think the debate in here a couple weeks ago when rumors of an extension first came out was about what he'd get if it was 6 years? Most of the numbers hovered around low-mid 40M.
  7. jimmer
    we'll see. I hope you're right. let's hope that by 1 May he hasn't spend any time out in CF.
  8. jimmer
    I ask because BaseRuns seems to be closer to actual record than Pythag in the majority of instances.
  9. jimmer
    Ryan didn't concur in public on that. Molitor said for sure, then Ryan said he wasn't sure, then Molitor backtracked. I'm just saying, it's not definitive.
  10. jimmer
    Are you asking if I know where to find BaseRuns or are you asking if I know the correlation because to the first question, Yes. To the 2nd, no :-)
  11. jimmer
    Molitor may have made it clear Santana will be a shortstop to start the year, but Ryan makes the active roster and if the 25 man roster makes Escobar shortstop and Santana CF our best option, we could very well see that right out the gate if not soon after.
  12. jimmer
    Instead of pythag, try checking the correlation to BaseRuns?
  13. jimmer
    it helps if we know which stats can also be used. Like, in this case, Off-WAR can't be used like the poster ken did because we are comparing Mauer to Dozier specifically, not how Mauer compared to other 1Bs versus how Dozier compared to other 2Bs. WAR is position specific. And I prefer to look for the truth, whatever that may be. I don't decide who is better and then cherry-pick stats. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. In our discussion, you preferred not to value RE24 based on a few examples, but instead said that those who SAW the Twins play didn't think Mauer was better offensively. I just used my eyes and old time stats and said I saw something different. I showed how different people's eye tests might show different things for a variety of reasons. I posted earlier some of those reasons. Perception based on biases, for one. I like Dozier better than Mauer. I have no reason to look for reasons to say Mauer is better.
  14. jimmer
    Our debate started when he questioned RE24 and said they eyes didn't match it. So I used my eye test and old school stats (which are easier to gauge by eyes) to say that my eye test said Mauer was better. I know what the other stats say, but he preferred the eye test over metrics. See what I'm getting at? How all of our eyes see different things? And I don't think it's RE27 it's RC27, no? And by the way, Off-WAR isn't even a stat to use here (and I don't think I have ever personally used it on this site at all, even for the correct use). WAR is a stat to compare players of the same position. We are talking about comparing Mauer's offense to Dozier's offense directly, not Mauer's offense relative to 1Bs versus Dozier's offense relative to 2Bs. And wRC+ is affected by playing time, which I addressed as well.
  15. jimmer
    Yes, I believe Mauer's offensive year was better. And I showed why. Since Dozier played more, and that SHOULD count, they are close.
  16. jimmer
    Speaking of Substance versus Style. ESPN just released it's top 10 list of CFs for 2015. Span was nowhere to be found. Here's a guy who was 7th in CF WAR and 17th in OF War, period. But they have guys like Wil Myers on there who hasn't even played CF, and Billy Hamilton. Yes, he may not play the start of 2015, maybe, but he's going to be playing. Maybe they think his injury will hurt him too much, but he's not even mentioned in the article. Nothing about, 'hey there's this guy, Span ,who has been good for a good amount of time, he's not on the list because of this injury and we think it'll affect him all season.
  17. jimmer
    I didn't know he was backing up Mauer?
  18. jimmer
    well, assuming Santana's likely BABIP regression doesn't kill his offensive value and he can show some defensive proficiency at either position, yeah.
  19. jimmer
    Only Punto could do such defensive wizardry.
  20. jimmer
    If Escobar can continue to perform how he did last season, I agree. He can play two or three times a week and fill in at 3 spots.
  21. jimmer
    Again, We have perceptions of what Mauer should do based on his past and salary, and our bias can play into those perceptions (Like how he gets paid 23M and doesn't hit HRs so he's a slacker). The metrics we're talking about don't have emotional perceptions of what Mauer should do for us Twins fans AND then judge him based on those. They just evaluate him for what he did. Yeah, Mauer was well below his normal, but he was that far ahead of most everyone on the team at his normal too. Neither Dozier nor Mauer tore it up in RE24 either. Mauer well below his norm. I have no issue believing Mauer's offense was more valuable than Dozier's. My eyes agree with that. (and as a fan, I'm more of a fan of Dozier than Mauer). Mauer got on base at a higher clip (like 15 points) during the season and, with RISP, he posted a .290/.466/.467. Dozier posted a .225/.356/.371 with RISP. So Mauer dwarfed him in that regard. And, compared to his overall season numbers, Dozier did worse with RISP, while Mauer, compared to his overall season numbers, did much better with RISP. Those aren't metrics, those are good old fashioned stats. And they say Mauer was better.
  22. jimmer
    and it's possible that even if we keep both we won't end up with even one good shortstop.
  23. jimmer
    It is not necessarily fact that our human eyes are right and the metrics are wrong. We have perceptions of what Mauer should do based on his past and salary, and our bias can play into those perceptions (Like how he gets paid 23M and doesn't hit HRs so he's a slacker). Yeah, he was well below his normal, but he was that far ahead of most everyone on the team at his normal too. Neither Dozier nor Mauer tore it up in RE24 either. Mauer well below his norm. I have no issue believing Mauer's offense was more valuable than Dozier's. My eyes agree with that. (and as a fan, I'm more of a fan of Dozier than Mauer). Mauer got on base at a higher clip (like 15 points) and posted a .290/.466/.467 with RISP. Dozier posted a .225/.356/.371 with RISP. So compared to his season numbers, Dozier did worse with RISP while Mauer, compared to his season numbers, did much better with RISP.
  24. jimmer
    So there's a story over at ESPN entitled 'Left Field lacks the big sluggers of the past.' (hint, that's why Gordon was deemed so valuable, though the story isn't about that). When you 'look at the 10 teams with the worst offensive production from left field in 2014 (using wOBA) and their total defensive runs saved at the position', you see Twins were far and away the worst. 'The 10 teams with bad offense (they are talking about from the LF spot) -- each posted a wOBA under .300 -- combined for minus-34 defensive runs saved. Sure, a large chunk of that came from the Twins, but the other nine teams were still collectively below average on defense.'
  25. jimmer
    While we're at it, let's return Hicks to pitching.
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