jimmer
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Everything posted by jimmer
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UZR isn't telling us what he'll be in 2015. Over the last three years he's averaged around -4, so 2 wouldn't be out of the question, but he's trending down and is turning 40 so I'm not sure we should expect that. Could happen though.
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Chief and I have discussed the interpretation of this info a bit on this thread. I don't agree Inside Edge says hes average or slightly above average. Due to sample sizes, I don't think we can give equal credence to all 6 categories, which is what he was doing.
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Most people wouldn't have gone? I don't believe that. Scouting report was out there and AJ, who is slow, knew he could make it.
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I remember a very slow AJ Pierzinski scoring standing up from 2B on a ball hit to short CF that Revere fielded and six hoped to the plate when he was not very far from the Infield grass upon release of the ball.
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A yearly UZR measures outcomes for that year, but is too small a sample size to measure actual skill. Starts getting more interesting when you get to the last three years. Like the primer says, if a guy is 5 points averages one year, 5 runs below average the next and around 1 run the next, he's likely an average fielder. In regard to what Hunter has done the last three years, that would make his average DRS for 2012-2014 around -4.3. Not horrific. Kind of what one would expect from a guy his age. But he turns 40 this summer so you don't see that trending up any time soon. Larger sample size the better to see how he actually was over the course of his career, but how a player was in his 20s and early 30s has little to do with how he is in his late 30s. It's why the last three or four years is more indicitive of a player's skill. Not unlike looking at offensive production or pitching.
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I remember when a site (I forget which one, maybe Star Tribune?) put out a poll about Revere's best 5 most spectacular catches of the season when he was filling in at CF for Span. Four of them he misread the ball of the bat and a couple of them he had to re-adjust his path because he took a bad routes. Made the plays, and the final part of the play looked pretty, but they wouldn't have needed to be spectacular if he was better at reading the ball off the bat better and/or taking better routes. And then there is his arm :-)
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Beating Vegas: The New York Yankees
jimmer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
ZiPS, the best projector for 2014, projects the 2015 Yankees at 82-80. -
Diving into first faster? Nick Punto vindicated!
jimmer replied to Paul Pleiss's topic in Other Baseball
Punto is only vindicated if we can prove he slid perfectly, cause this talks about how the PERFECT head first slide might be faster. And we still have to take into account the increase in injury threat. Me, personally, I loved watching him do it. Especially when he did it on clear cut singles to the OF. -
except you and I were just talking different info, right? Inside Edge Fielding? Inside Edge Fielding isn't assigning DRS.
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Now if we go back to UZR, we look at RZR, which measures range, Hunter ranked 27th out of 31 RF for RF who had 500 or more innings. RZR is based on balls hit into zone compared to plays made. He had 191 his hit into what is considered his zone and he made 169. This effects his RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity. And he was 31st out of 31. (which Inside Edge Fielding agrees) He also had 50 plays made outside of his zone which ranked him close enough to average to say average in that regard.(Inside Edge Fielding agrees)
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I think how a player plays the normal ball over 200 times is more indicative of a players ability (due to much larger sample size) than the very rare great play here or there does, as indicated by an average sample size of eight balls over the five other % categories. Matter of opinion I guess. It's why I liked Span in CF more than Revere.
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Did you notice how many more balls fell into the range where he ranked last? 208. All the other categories combined: 40. That's why it defaults to where it defaults to. Means he was the worse at creating outs where the average RF would, but did very rarely make a play some others wouldn't.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 The link is already set to Inside Edge Fielding for RF.
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I think you're talking about WPA. Spycake wrote earlier on this thread: That is an argument for defensive WPA Win Probability Added. A diving catch with the bases loaded and two outs is more valuable than an identical catch with no one on. Interesting, but not really a good way to estimate fielding performance or ability.
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In the case of Hunter, it's not hard to believe when a defender gets to his age (and with his type of build combined with that age), his defensive ability starts going down at a pretty good rate. I'm not sure how he'd be immune to it when others haven't. Dyson is only 30 and some are talking about his best tool, speed (which helps his offense and defense), is going to drop dramatically soon which will affect his value. His build is way better for the speed skill than Torii's and he's a decade younger. Why is it hard to believe Hunter just isn't a good defender anymore? I think too many Twins fans just have bias towards Hunter due to what he used to be able to do on defense and it hurts to hear Spiderman isn't able to avoid the pitfalls of aging everyone goes through.
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How is that? I guess I'm reading it wrong. I looked at Inside Edge Fielding at Fangraphs (since they've had it there since last year) and for qualified RF he was 16th out of 16. Then I extended it to OF who had 700 or more innings and he was 21st out of 21. Then I extended it to 600 innings and he was 26th out of 26. To 500, he was 31st out of 31.
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It's also easier to accept the pitch to contact strategy when you have good defenders behind you.
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If you knew sushi, like I know sushi :-)
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Chief and I were both senior NCOs in the AF. I imagine the list of things we agree on far outweigh the list of things we don't. Just have to find an advanced metric to test that theory now. I hate homework ;-)
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Well, I can absolutely agree with the sushi part. :-)
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I often wonder why OPS is so widely accepted as fact over other metrics, not that it didn't take a long time for OPS to stop being discarded. OPS is a stat that is widely accepted as a way to value a player's offensive contributions, but it has assumptions as well by the way it values slg % in comparison to OBP. It assumes they are equal when OBP has been proven to be roughly twice as important as SLG% in scoring runs. The calculation of slg% also assumes that a double is twice as important as a single, a triple three 3 times as important as a single and 50% more valuable than a double, and so on. It's an easy assumption to accept, the math is so simple and hey, a guy is on 2B instead of 1B, but that doesn't make the assumption that a double is twice as valuable as a single true.
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A typical outfield hit is worth around .56 runs and any batted ball out is worth around -.27 runs, so the difference between a hit and an out is worth around .83 runs.
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Good article. Just one question. Who are the Devil Rays? :-)
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This article from the fielding bible really breaks it down in easy terms to understand their process. http://fieldingbible.com/Fielding-Bible-FAQ.asp 'Every MLB play is entered into the computer where we record the direction, distance, speed, and type of every batted ball. Direction and distance are recorded on a computer screen by simply clicking the location of the ball on a replica of the field shown on the screen. Speed is scored as either soft, medium, or hard, while different batted ball types include bunt, groundball, liner, fly, and “fliner”. Fliners, introduced in 2006, are balls that are somewhere between flies and liners. Beginning in 2009, BIS video scouts began additionally tracking batted ball timer information. This data has allowed us to make objective assessments of the velocity and trajectory of each grounder or flyball.'
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it's why I said should :-) sometimes a shift is subtle and all one needs is an extra step or three :-) 'Positioning, reaction, and range all factor into a player’s defensive ability. Whether an outfielder made a routine catch because he was positioned well or he had to sprint twice as hard because he got a poor read on the ball off the bat, the out still counts the same. The Plus/Minus System doesn’t know why the player made the play; it just knows that he did (or that he didn’t). As a result, the best plays according to the Plus/Minus System aren’t always flashy Web Gem nominees. As with anything else, the best defensive players can make the hard plays look easy.' 'Just like with offensive stats, players can have “fluke” months or seasons which don’t reflect his actual ability. It’s important to remember that all statistics—whether it’s batting average, Runs Saved, or an election poll—aren’t always indicative of true value: they’re just estimates within some amount of measurement error. Additionally, players can have uncharacteristically good or bad days, weeks, or months which have little effect on what we think of them going forward. When Mark Teixeira is hitting under .200 at the end of April, you write it off as a bad month and hope that he recovers soon (if you’re a Yankees fan, that is). Players can have seemingly good and bad defensive months and seasons too.'
