jimmer

It would concern me greatly if the difference between one of the very best defenses and one of the very worst wasn't at least 120 runs over the course of a season. That makes it only like .75 run a game per season. The difference between a great defense and a horrible difference SHOULD be that much, if not more. How much do we want to minimize the importance of defense, anyway?

There isn't a certain amount of runs available for each team to allow and then we add runs allowed and runs saved and it equals that number. Why do you think there would be an even 120 run difference? It's not how it works. It's not like each team would allow the same amount of runs even of the defenses were equal, cause there is nothing to say they would. Still have to account for the pitching differences of the teams and the sequencing of hits by the opponents that cause runs to score.

I was just explaining what I did with original response, Chief. I wasn't suggesting WAR doesn't count when the bullpen is in. And believe me, I never thought anyone would/could convince you to accept the 120 run difference anyway. All that new age hocom math and all...

projections always regress to the mean. Until he makes his mean higher, that's what the projections will say. The guy who created ZiPS actually think Plouffe's defense will be better than the projections and it also looks like the article is just taking about the positions, not just the starters at each position.

Yes, TEAM pitching WAR, I just used rotation since KCs bullpen helped close that WAR gap. sequencing accounts for the runs, more than likely. It's never just going to add up cleanly.

Cleveland's pitching was 2nd best in baseball and best in AL. 6 WAR difference in rotation. Their defense was horrible.

Think we can find another team to fall in love with his career ERA? :-)

No even slightly intelligent GM is going to tell his fans or the players that they take service clock into consideration when deciding on opening day roster. Means zip. He's 'been clear' about a lot of things during his GM time.

He's saying .700 is respectable, not good or great. There are 15 teams and 9 spots in teh order for each team. That 135 spots. 131 players had 300 or more PAs in the AL last year, 85 were at .700 or better. So .700 is respectable. If you're looking at what the player with the 65th best OPS was with 300 or more PAs (65 being right around the middle of 131) it was our very own Eduardo Escobar with his .721 OPS.

'It's amazing he produces what he does (which should earn him no roster points).' We award him no roster points, and may God have mercy on his soul :-)

Well, we still don't know if our shortstop will play CF again this year or if Nunez will also be an option for OF as a utility guy and then Hermann as you mentioned, so certainly less talk about IF for OF spots, but that's mostly due to options available.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-preview-of-2015-team-defenses/ Twins project to be 29th.

There were 31 1Bs who logged 400 or more PAs, Mauer was 21st in wRC+. He was slightly below average. If he had reached his career wRC+, that would have put him in the top 10. If he had reached what he did in 2013 prior to concussion, that would have put him 6th.

'I think that we put way too much importance on who is on the 25-man roster for game 1 of the season.' Back in the old days, the 25 man was less important than nowadays. After going to 5 man rotations and so many relievers, you run out of bench options quickly. We should be concerned with every player put on the roster. MLB should expand active roster to 27 or 28 players. If that happens, then we can be less concerned about who the last player on the bench is.

When was the other season? He didn't get enough PAs in 2013 and he was really good first month, then horrible 2nd month, then blah the 3rd month, then horrible the 4th month. And none of those months did he have a lot of PAs (none of them did he see 50 PAs). He actually finished 2013 really well, so not sure it was about being tired. Both Eduardo and Santana need to prove last year wasn't a big fluke.

He had more pitches per plate appearances last year than our new RF. He also had more pitchers per PA than last year's batting champ/hit leader Altuve, all world 2B Cano, and now retired HOFer Jeter. His OF defense, well, he shouldn't be in the OF. Not defending him, just putting certain comments about his game into context.

Well, we need someone who can actually play an above average defensive CF because our corners are, um, horrible. Santana does not come close to fitting that bill, so hopefully he won't be out there again (though I admired his effort out there last year, his defensive deficiency out there was not on him since he's an IF)

I think that was the point, that they were able to get all that offense from a team that shouldn't have been able to do that much damage based on personnel. Also, they did have that one big weekend against the Tigers where they scored like 40 runs or so in three games. Awesome weekend.

perhaps because of the strike zone being called larger?

Because they were so patient early in counts, both the Twins and the Sox ended up in so many two-strike situations that their strikeout rates crept into the highest quartile in the league, despite each team being better than average at battling once they had two strikes against them.

'One of the old clichés in baseball is, “you can’t win without hitting with runners in scoring position.” Many people link that to why the Cardinals had done so well in the past and why they haven’t really been able to get going this year. In years past, they have consistently been not only one of the best teams in baseball, but also the best at hitting with runners in scoring position. Many people in the game consider it also to be one of the most important stats when it comes to judging a player’s hitting ability. In a press conference at the beginning of the season, Matt Williams had sabermetricians finally thinking that someone with their ideology was becoming the manager of the Washington Nationals when he said, “If you don’t get with the times, bro, you better step aside.” When I heard that, I immediately thought that he would be talking about more advanced hitting metrics than batting average and home runs and RBI’s. He followed that comment up with, “My favorite stat right now and always has been the stat of hitting with runners in scoring position. Because batting average and on-base percentage and all of those things are great, but who is doing damage and how can they hit with guys in scoring position.” When I heard that, I immediately slunked back in my chair and placed him in the category of old-school. 'The thing that they and many other people think is that if you can’t hit with runners in scoring position, you can’t win games and you can’t score runs. For these people, it is for the most part a blind hypothesis, just assuming it is true because it seems that it should be true.' And after lot of info, the following paragraph: 'So Matt, not to rain on your parade, but batting average with runners in scoring position has very little to do with determining runs or wins. And Marty, it’s just limiting Votto’s overall production to a small sample size that doesn’t have a whole lot to do with winning games. No one will argue that hitting with runners in scoring position can help to win games because it does often result in scoring a run but it should not be looked at as one of the key stats in a player’s production.' http://www.fangraphs.com/community/taking-a-closer-look-at-hitting-with-runners-in-scoring-position/

'The Twins scored the fifth most runs in the American League, and the next person you find who thinks they had the fifth most offensive talent had better be the first.'

So you have the Marlins winning NL East, then?

There were only 12 qualifying players who had an OBP in the .380s or higher last year. So yeah, if he can do that, he's a starter for sure.

The only good thing about '95-'01 was if I bought cheap seat tickets we could be down behind the plate around the 3rd inning :-)