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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    My preference is to trade for a SP and find a FA RP. Cole over Archer. Why? Archer probably isn't available and he'd cost a lot more than Cole. Stroman would be a viable option to Cole. Sign Morrow or McGee. Here's a more aggressive strategy that addresses cost: Sign Darvish. Overpay him and give him an opt-out. Five years, $130M. $25/$30 with opt-out, three more years at $25M. Sign McGee. 3 yr/$30M. Trade Escobar for a high-floor AA catcher or SP. He has real value with a predicted salary of $5M next year. Trade Castro. He's worth his remaining 2 yr/$16, but not much more. Could end up eating a part of his contract but still save money. Resign Gimenez to share C with Garver. Trade or Release Grossman. Vargas, Palka vie for DH. Consider trading Gibson. I think they need him next year but if cost savings is king, he has to go. Total savings from trades: Esco ($5M), Castro ($4-8M), Grossman ($2.5M) maybe Gibson ($6M) = $11-$21.5M (will cost $2-3M to fill their positions) Total 2018 FA Cost: $35M Total fWAR change: C - 0 WAR (Gimenez was better per PA than Castro) DH - 0 WAR (Vargas and Grossman are a wash. Switching HR/K for BB.) SP - 3.5 WAR (Darvish - I'm keeping Gibson. Otherwise, 2.4 WAR) RP - 1.5 WAR (McGee) Twins gain 5 wins for a net cost of $20-24M in 2018. Probably can't sign Dozier or Mauer beyond next year. Have at it. I'm not sold on the Darvish scenario but I thought it might generate some conversation.
  2. dbminn
    I like the Brad Hand trade but it will take more than Gordon and a couple of lower prospects. He has two low-cost arb years remaining before he's a FA. Probably take Gordon and one of the very young Twins pitching prospects to get him. I'd make the deal. McGee, Morrow would be top FA priorities. IMO, the Twins will need to trade for either a SP or RP and sign the other as a FA. I can't see the Twins adding $30M+ per year to the payroll for two pitchers via free agency. Especially if both are 31-33 years old to begin their contracts.
  3. dbminn
    I would support signing Sano through two years of free agency. I'm not optimistic it will happen this offseason. Sano's injury could make the spread between asking price and the Twins offer too big to overcome. I hope they at least discuss the possibility. I think Seth's numbers are a little light but not unreasonable. Here is a look at the contracts of some players who have gone year to year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted 2018 arbitration values and 2017 actual contracts are as follows: Kris Bryant (2018, year 1) $8M Anthony Rendon (2017 actual, yr 1) $5.8M; (2018, yr 2) $11.8M Manny Machado (2017 actual, yr 2) $11.5M; (2018, yr 3) $17.3M Sano can bet on himself and pull these types of salaries in his arbitration years. Sano's problem is he hasn't performed like any of the listed players to this point. Not even close. Each of these players had at least one 6.0 WAR season before entering their arbitration years. Give Sano a $4M bonus this year. I'd offer him $5/$10/$15 for his arb years and $20/$25 for two years of free agency, for a total of $80M for six years. This contract is probably 80-85% of what he could make going year to year, at maximum potential. That's a lot of money for a player who has yet to have a 3.0 WAR year and looking at surgery.
  4. dbminn
    Totally agree. The Twins should sign Buxton and all of their young players early to get the best deals. Most of them will end up very good to excellent. Show them trust and spread the risk across all of them in the next two years. IMO, Buxton is the priority.
  5. dbminn
    I don't know what he'd bring in return. I only said he's at relatively high value compared to his low point, which was worth nothing.
  6. dbminn
    I'd limit the contract to 3 years, raise Seth's annual salary for 2019 to $18M and give Dozier an opt-out before 2020. ($3M bonus/$18M/$16M/$14M = $51M). The Twins could add a 4th year with vesting option/buyout. Otherwise, let it play out to the end of the year. IMO, the Twins need his production to compete in 2018.
  7. dbminn
    "Relatively" high would be a reasonable comment. Gibson made some real changes in 2017. He rebuilt his mechanics in the offseason to get rid of chronic pain. He struggled. By the end of July, he had no value. When he returned from one start in the minors at the beginning of August, he changed his pitch selection and threw a lot more strikes. He was the best SP on the Twins from that point forward (edit: not true - Erv was better - Gibson had a 3.55 ERA, Erv 3.12). His value is relatively high right now, compared to any point since the start of 2016.
  8. dbminn
    Lynn would be #2 on my FA list. A very good SP with a solid resume. He was worked hard in 2017, the first year after TJ surgery. I'd be a nervous about more than four years. Spotrac estimates Lynn's worth at 4 yr/ $65M. That sounds too reasonable. IMO, someone will offer him a 5-year deal closer to $90M.
  9. dbminn
    My priorities would be Buxton and Rosario. They are my "best bets" for long and successful careers. I love Berrios but the injury risk for SP is pretty high. I'd give Buxton guaranteed money over a long-term contract. Load it with incentives for MVP, AS, GG, SS. Say, 6 yrs / $62 million, with a $2M buyout before FA (4 yr / $32 mil guaranteed at that point). I'll take the injury risk and put up with the coulda/woulda/shouldas if he misses a year. I want to see more consistent defense and base running with Rosario but his upside is extremely high. He's shown the desire to work on his game. I'd ask for the same contract structure as Buxton. Spotrac has Rosario as a 4-year Arb guy, so 7 years takes him through two years as FA: 7 yrs / $48M, $1M buyout before FA (5/$21M guaranteed). It's risky but the Twins need to take a few chances to build a long-term winner. Approach Berrios, Sano, Kepler and Polanco after the 2018 season. Health with Sano and injury risk for Berrios are the issues. There are other 2B/SS moving through the system so Polanco isn't a priority right now. Kepler still has to prove he can be an everyday player. These are difficult calls. IMO, sign them all over the next two years. Odds are good that 4 of 6 will be above-average to elite ballplayers. Better to spread the risk than try to pick the optimal signings. No FA years, less money. No team option, a lot less money.
  10. dbminn
    Congratulations to Molitor - he earned a new contract.
  11. dbminn
    What did you expect, a four run homer with no one on?
  12. dbminn
    Lame
  13. dbminn
    Thanks Twins!!
  14. dbminn
    MI: Rosario Rookie: Hildenberger POY: Santana MVP: Dozier Best left-handed hitting old guy who also fields really well: Joe Mauer Best player without a vote but is really amazing: Byron Buxton Twins Manager of the Year: Paul Molitor
  15. dbminn
    He took the first pitch, then hit a dribbler. Ran well to first. Looked like he limped a very little bit walking back to the dugout. All good. We were sitting behind home looking up the first base line.
  16. dbminn
    Thanks for including the Molitor interview. I missed the post-game show.
  17. dbminn
    I like your optimism! Trout has been a generational player and Buxton won't ever catch him in career stats. But I believe Buxton has a chance to challenge Trout in WAR in any given year. The talent is there and he's two wins per year better than Trout in the field. The guy is 23 years old so he's certainly not a finished product. Why not be optimistic?
  18. dbminn
    The key players on the 87 Twins were a bit older than the current version. Gagne was the youngest at 25 while the others were hitting their prime. Bruno was 26; Hrbek, Puck and Bush 27; Gaetti 28 and Gladden 29. At SP, Viola and Straker were 27. They were ready to take the opportunities the playoff opponents gave them. IMHO, the current crop of youngsters are going to be better at the same ages. Of the core 7, Rosario is the oldest at 25. Buxton, Berrios and Polanco are 23. Even if they collapse this year, I'm really optimistic moving forward. A couple of acquisitions and good health are going to be key the next few years. As for 2017, I'm going to hope for "dumb" luck (or even smart luck) to carry a young and incomplete roster to the playoffs.
  19. dbminn
    And congratulations to Mitch Garver on a fine season!
  20. dbminn
    Just glanced at Wade's stats on FanGraphs. He's hits a lot of line drives and doesn't rely on ground balls to get hits. All good. The negative stat that stood out is infield fly ball rate (IFFB%). According to FG, 21.4% of his total fly balls in 2017 were pop-ups, which is way above average (about 11% in MLB). He had the same issue at Cedar Rapids (20.2%). At Ft. Myers, he had an average IFFB rate and his slugging percentage rose to a fat .518. Pop-ups seem like a problem that can be solved. I think I'll stay optimistic about his chance to be a solid MLB player.
  21. dbminn
    So... if Molitor goes, does the whole coaching staff go? Rowson and Rodriguez have done a fine job. Guardado and Allen seem like they have done well too. Glynn has gotten kudos for his fielding lessons. Seems like a Catch-22 for the FO. After all, the team is going to finish 20-25 games better than last year. I suppose it could be Pickel or Mauer or Mientkewicz.
  22. dbminn
    A lot of attention is given to the "JAWS" Leaders. It's a combination of a player's best seven years and career WAR. Mauer is ranked the 7th best catcher of all time. From Baseball Reference.
  23. dbminn
    Well played game. Gibson, Mauer(!), Grossman and Polanco all stepped up. Herrera's 98 is nothing compared to Belisle... Ha!
  24. dbminn
    Small ball rocks! (at least tonight)
  25. dbminn
    I pity Souhan. That's the most fearful, bitter rant I've read outside of conspiracy blogs.
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