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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I agree--I'm not quite certain why Winder isn't getting a bit of run here. The more I think about it, the more I don't understand Thielbar in the 6th either. If I had to pick one guy in the Twins pen to get 3 outs with a one run lead right now, I think Thielbar is probably the choice.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Duffey warming in the pen. Guess he's not the closer anymore.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    What do you mean again? Danny almost never says anything inaccurate or idiotic.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    When he realized it was 1870s rules, being a stickler, Chief smashed his computer to smithereens, believing it to be a manifestation of witchcraft.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Danny let us know the Seattle Mariners used to be the Seattle Pilots, until they were sold to Selig who turned them into the Milwaukee Brewers. They then got an expansion team which became the Mariners. Which of course means the Mariners were never the Pilots.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    You didn't know? This game is being played with 1870s rules.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins winning lots of games? Yeah, unless you like complaining.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    How do you say "Rally Killer" in German?
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Fair, forgot that part.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, yeah, it did. Should be 5-0, 0 out. That is a demonstrably better situation to be in. This bullpen still has to get 9-12 outs after all.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Top 4 hitters in the order--6 for 10, 2 bb, 1 k. Twins will win a lot of games when that happens.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, and there's not that many games left to turn it around either.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Danny says the Mariners are a pretty good offensive club. They're 22nd in runs scored this year, after being 22nd last year as well.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, but the other one is a mess.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Danny calls for the possibility of Buck swiping third. Ignoring the interview Buck did in ST wherein he said he doesn't see the point of stealing third, because he'll score on any hit to the outfield from second anyways. (Leaving aside the questionable strategy from Buxton there, why would you look for a steal from a player who openly said he wouldn't steal?)
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Just pulled Gameday up to see what I missed--11 pitches, 10 strikes from Bundy seems positive!
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Small point--Urshela started at 3B both Friday and yesterday.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Berrios has a 54 bb/9 rate (not 5.4--54). He has a 100% HR/FB rate, and things could have been worse, because he actually has a 43.5% LOB rate. All of that is to say, clearly the Jays should be trying to send him to AAA to get some innings.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Because he had a -3 wRC+ against lefties last year (59 against righties)--even in MiLB last year, he had a .744 OPS against lefties v .715 against righties. It is not some hard-written rule of the Universe that all righties are successful against lefties, and all lefties are unsuccessful against lefties. To wit, Kepler had a 40 wRC+ against lefties last year, and Kiriloff was 94.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Do you have any data around rookies more often starting slow than fast? You're saying almost guaranteed, which to me suggests you think a rookie is going to start slow something like 80-90% of the time--is that supported, or is that simply a supposition on your part? No, you didn't suggest sending him down; that part of my response was designed to show the danger in calling the first 3 games a "slow start". If AK's games 4 and 5 are identical to Buxton's games 2 and 3 from an offensive standpoint, we're (meaning everyone on this thread) not having this convo. Miranda is in the minors because it's clear he would not play every day in MLB (Urshela and Arraez both need time at 3B); same with Larnach (Kiriloff and Sano need time at LF and 1B). If Kiriloff or Sano gets hurt, I would not be surprised if Larnach gets the call (unless he's still scuffling). With Miranda, it might take even more, as right now he's 6th on the infield depth chart (Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Urshela, Gordon), so it might take 2 out of those 5 getting hurt/struggling/being moved to the outfield for him to come up.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins are 215-169 (56% winning percentage, 91 win pace) when Jake Odorizzi is on a Falvine team. They are 159-168 (48.6% winning percentage, 79 win pace) when Jake Odorizzi is not on a Falvine team. Is Jake Odorizzi the key to the Twins being good?
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    I said that in the sense that I assume he plays corner OF or DH--by definition that means those 4 guys are the ones losing PAs. Sure, Upton was good (130 wRC+) against lefties last year; but that's higher than his career marks against lefties, which leads me to believe there's a lot of room for regression (for comparison, he's a career 115 wRC+ against righties--last year was 76). He turns 35 this year, and is a negative on defense (FG literally has him with negative defensive value every year since 2012), and I'm guessing he's not going to help on the basepaths either (FG has him negative 2018-2020, but positive last year; baseball savant oddly doesn't have data on him). So what I feel like the Twins are getting, should they sign him, is a guy who will be around league average offensively against righties, but make your defense and team speed worse, and given that there's every reason to think Kiriloff can improve (AK actually has a better career wRC+ against lefties than righties), I just don't know what the purpose here is.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Correlation, not causation. What was the FIP and xFIP of the pitching staff in games Buxton played v not? What pitchers did the Twins offense have to face when Buxton was out? Were there other players who missed time with injuries or were playing through injuries when Buxton was out? You can't just say a good CF is the entirety of the reason the Twins win, based on nothing other than a comparison of W/L record.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    This is only logical if you assume rookies are much more likely to start the season cold--I don't ascribe to that thinking. As you noted, there are several vets who need to "pick it up" (yesterday's game papered over a lot of problems; that tends to happen when dealing with SSS). To that point--say Kiriloff foes 4-5 with 2 HRs tonight--do we still think he needs to get sent down?
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