Cap'n Piranha

Dude--Odorizzi, Cruz, Pineda. All signed/traded for by Falvine, 11.3 WAR last year. Without them, the Twins win 90 last year, and are sitting at home in October. That's not even taking into consideration the 5.5 combined WAR of Castro, Gonzalez, Schoop, Cron, and Cave, nor the 5.2 combined WAR of Perez, Harper, Dobnak, Romo, and Littell. That's 22 WAR from 13 players acquired by Falvine, without which the Twins go from 101 wins to 79. While I'm frustrated the Twins couldn't get an impact player in FA this offseason, there's not a ton you can do when Cole is determined to go to the Yankees, Strasburg wants to stay in DC, Wheeler's agent tells you not to bother making offers, Bumgarner insists on going to Arizona, and Donaldson (seemingly) is only interested in the Twins as leverage. Free Agency is a two-way street, and Falvine can't just snap their fingers and force whomever they want to sign here. If what you're looking for is a front office that makes aggressive trades and signs free agents to megadeals, you should probably consider switching your fandom--that's just not going to be the Twins, and getting annoyed about it won't change that.

Jim Thome put up less WAR in his run with the Twins than Cruz did just last year. Cruz was 33rd in WAR in the entire league, despite missing the equivalent of a quarter of the season--Jim Thome when he signed with the Twins was nowhere near the quality of player Nelson Cruz was when signing with the Twins. Odorizzi has also put up more WAR in his two seasons than Pavano did in his entire Twins run. Over the past two seasons, Odorizzi has accumulated the 24th most WAR of all starters with 300 or more IP, all for a guy who OPS'd .558 in AA as a 22/23 year old last year. Your belief that they're acquiring players in the same way, and therefore are docking them some portion of credit is ridiculous--apparently the only way you're willing to give them full credit is if they sign a massive deal in free agency, or trade multiple prospects for an established star. This ignores the fact that this is a small portion of team building for a small market team, and guarantees nothing--look at the Phillies who, prior to last season, signed one of the two best free agents available, then traded for the best all-around catcher, who happens to be a 5 WAR player. What did they get for these moves? A .500 record, a 4th place finish in the division, and missed the playoffs by 12 games. If you want to give all the credit for development to the coaches, then why are you giving credit to TR/BS for signing/drafting players? Furthermore, if we agree that the coaches hired by Falvine have driven the development of Garver/Arraez/Polanco/Kepler et al, shouldn't we ding TR/BS for NOT hiring coaches that were able to develop them?

So now they don't get credit for a move because it's too similar to what TR would have done? Cruz, Odo, and Pineda combined for 11.3 WAR last year, which is literally the difference between making the playoffs and not. And if you're going to give them credit for hiring good coaches, by extension shouldn't they get credit for the impact those coaches made? It seems quite popular to denigrate Falvine since they weren't able to sign an ace in free agency, and reduce what they've accomplished. However, it seems clear to me that Falvine is immensely better at running a baseball operation that TR/BS, and the fruit of that is already starting to come to bear.

Do they get no credit for developing the players/hiring the coaches? Outside of the fact that Odo, Cruz, Pineda, Littell, and Romo are their guys, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, and Duffey are far more valuable now than they were prior to the 2017 season. They've also added Lewis, Rooker, Sands, Larnach, Jeffers, Duran, and Alcala to the system. Falvine clearly have a plan they are capable of executing; the only question will be if that plan pans out.

Um, in August of 2019, Bailey faced the Brewers, the Cubs, the Giants, the Royals, and the Yankees twice. Combined win percentage of those teams was .529, which is the equivalent of an 86 win team. Only one of the bunch was truly bad, one was pretty good, and the Yankees were obviously great.

The game is starting to lose chairs, and there's not that much music left to be played. I agree that at this point the Twins need to do something to send a message. Similar to when the Tigers signed Pudge to a deal most people thought was way too high; it demonstrated the Tigers were serious about winning. We need to do something right now to show this isn't going to be the same old Twins, hoping for internal growth. Whether that's blowing away Cole's highest offer, giving Donaldson 4 and $128, or putting Rendon in the quarter-billion club, something is needed to kickstart this.

This would be a lot more convincing if the two quotations weren't from people within the Twins organization who have a vested interest in maintaining the belief that Lewis will stick at short. I'm not saying Borrego and Zoll are being dishonest, simply that there is no reason for them to make any sort of statement about Lewis not being able to stick at short. The first evidence we will get that the Twins no longer view Lewis as a shortstop is when he no longer plays the vast majority of his games there.

I'm not talking about him outperforming Chapman (or any of them, for that matter), simply responding to your assertion that none of the three would be a key contributor to a playoff race in 2020. I'm also not saying any of the three will be key contributors, just that there is a very easy path for all three of them to appear on the roster, at which point they could play their way into contributing. Kiriloff struggled through injuries, but still had a 121 wRC+, Lewis just OPS'd .975 in the AFL, and Rooker had an OPS of .933 in AAA. If the A's were willing to take Kiriloff/Lewis + Rooker + Duran/Alcala for Chapman, I'd do that for sure, but as a number of posters have mentioned, it seems like it would take a lot more for the A's to part with a 6 WAR player making 6 figures. You'd probably have to make them a godfather offer, something like Arraez + Lewis/Kiriloff + Graterol/Balazovic, and even that might not be enough. After 2020 however, you might be able to do something.

This is a big statement that could easily be very wrong. All three of these players are a good first 6 weeks and an injury at the right spot away from appearing on the 26 man roster. At that point, anything can happen--just ask Luis Arraez.

I'm saying they have sifted through a terrible pitching staff (tied for last in ERA, 27th in FIP, 24th in xFIP in 2016), and markedly improved (9th in ERA, 4th in FIP, 5th in xFIP in 2019). It would seem that Falvine does know how to improve a pitching staff, and a big part of that was jettisoning pitchers they identified as not good enough--in other words, they correctly evaluated talent.

Levine comes from Texas, which once upon a time gave A-Rod a 10 year $250M contract, and has been in the top half of payroll every year since 2011, including top ten in 2012 and 2014-2017. The Rays' pitching staff was 1st in WAR, 3rd in ERA, 1st in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, 3rd in k/9, 3rd in bb/9, 1st in HR/9, 2nd in SIERA, and 1st in swinging strike rate. I would love for Falvine to emulate the Rays' pitching staff. Odo, Pineda, Dobnak, Littell, and Smeltzer have all worked out pretty well so far. Alcala, Bailey, and Duran all show promise. 8 pitchers in 3 years suggests a decent ability to identify talent--the question is if they can find elite level talent without regular access to the two most common avenues; high draft picks and high payrolls.

Or, since they've been here only 3 years, 2 of which were expected to be non-playoff years, maybe the fact that they've almost completely shed the rotation from 3 years ago is a sign that they know what they're doing.

I mean, they never had the chance to draft him, so it's a little unfair to imply not drafting him was a mistake.

Right, this is total speculation at this point. Either the active roster will be the same as the 40 man roster, or it won't. UP until this point, in September, the 40 man and the active roster have been the same thing, so the only question will be if this rule is a "Game Day" rule, wherein 12 players need to be "healthy scratches", or if it will be a true reduction to 28, requiring roster moves in order to change the active roster. If it is the latter, the other question will be if there is a relaxing of transaction requirements; for example, if a player is removed from the 28 man, but not the 40 man, does he need to spend 15 days not ont he 28 man roster (other than due to injury), or can he be reinstated sooner? It obviously can't be for the very next game, otherwise it's the same as doing "healthy scratches", but perhaps it would be reduced to 5-10 days, or maybe even allowed to reset for every new series. It will be interesting to see!

All relievers, regardless of when they enter the game, must either face 3 batters, or finish an inning. Therefore, if you have 2 outs and a lefty up, you can certainly use a loogy, that's just the only opportunity. As I understand it, there is no limit to how many players you have in the dugout, just how many are available to be used. For example, when a player gets hurt, he is free to sit in the dugout during the game even if he is on the IL. If indeed in September you can change your 28-man roster without needing to option players, the 12 players not on the "active roster" will likely just sit in the bullpen/dugout. As other posters have pointed out, if this is the case, all 4 starters not scheduled that day will be deactivated, meaning it's not really a 28 man active roster, it is a 32 man roster (with only 1 starter active, each team can have a mix of 27 relievers/position players).

The premier league does stop the game for 15 minutes at halftime. They also have turned their uniforms into advertisements, to the point where you could be excused if you believed it was the Manchester Chevrolets playing the Brighton American Expresses. I for one prefer the Twins against the Mariners, not the Minnesota United Health Cares against the Seattle Microsofts.

There is no rule you can possibly enact to combat this, without simultaneously increasing the odds of injury. Closing the door on this would open a fairly serious window.

But would you move him for 2 years of Jon Gray?

A few things; Sano and Buxton each accumulated 2.7 WAR last year, placing them 5th and 6th in the lineup. In terms of WAR/150, they're 6th and 4th, respectively. They were key cogs in the Twins success, and most assuredly, not along for the ride. No way Odo takes a 3/$36M deal. He can get basically half of that just this year with the QO, so taking that deal implies Odorizzi's camp thinks he would not be able to get a 2 year contract for $9M/year after 2020, when he woudl have no draft pick compensation attached. if the Twins want Odo for the next 3 years, they're going to have to get somewhere in the $42-$45 range. Alex Gordon makes no sense for this team, whether an outfielder is traded or not. From an offensive standpoint, Buxton and Kepler are better options, as is Rosario (unless you want more OBP in return for a big power drop). Cave and Wade are probably better too; they certainly have more upside. And with Kiriloff and Larnach holding their own at age 21 and 22 in AA, that's 7 options better than Gordon, before even mentioning Gonzalez and Royce Lewis should he be moved to the outfield. If we feel like we need more outfield defense despite having the 2nd best CF and 3rd best RF (according to fangraphs), than just go sign a really fast guy from someone's minor league system. Or alternatively, sign Billy Hamilton who is far superior defensively to Gordon, and would actually steal some bases too. All that being said, outfield is the last place the Twins should be looking to spend time or money this offseason.

Arraez is going nowhere. Out of 241 hitters with 350+ PA's, he was 30th lowest in soft contact rate, #1 in opposite field rate, #2 in bb/k, #1 in contact rate, lowest in swinging strike rate, #3 in zone contact rate, and #1 in out of zone contact rate. And all of this in his first ever taste of the bigs, in a season in which he started at AA, and turned 22 after the season started. Barring something shocking happening, Luis will be an elite hitter in the league for at least the next decade. Guys who walk more than they strike out, have elite contact ability, and generally make medium+ contact while being among the handful of youngest players in the league don't regress. They progress.

I really like Mookie, and a Buxton/Betts/Kepler outfield is possibly the best defensive outfield in the game, and maybe offensively too. That being said, with Cave and Wade already on the roster as cheap, controllable options with decent production and potential upside (Cave OPS'd .964 in 141 2nd half PA's last year, and was at .805 overall. Wade only OPS'd .723, but showed elite plate discipline ability--1.1 bb/k, only a 14.9% soft contact rate, and an 83.7% contact rate--suggests when his Mendoza-esque babip normalizes, he'll be an above average offensive player). Add in the fact that our 2nd and 3rd best prospects are playing in the outifeld, and our best might end up there too, and giving up assets in order to pay Betts $20M+ and potentially watch him walk seems like a poor allocation of resources. If the Twins are indeed willing to commit the $250M or so it would take to keep Betts here for the next 6-8 years, I'd much rather they just gave that to Cole, Strasburg, or Rendon. If they're not, I don't see how it makes any sense to give up prospects and a still 26 year old 3rd baseman with 40+ HR power just to shell out $20M+ and watch Betts walk for only a comp pick.

Sure, I get, LA winning a tiebreak over MSP all else being equal. That's why I'm proposing the Twins do 7/$250 with an opt-out after 5. Hell, make it after 4 if need be. I'm not Gerrit Cole, so I can't say how much "living" in LA during the season is worth to him, but if the Angels go 7/$224 with no opt-out, I struggle to think Cole would pass on $26M/the option to re-up closer to his prime, rather than after it, if at all.

Definitely. Per my above post, the Twins could decide to skip Rendon, and do BOTH Cole and Strasburg, and still be around $160M. Long story short, there is absolutely no reason for the Twins to not offer $30M per year to at least one of Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon.

I don't quite get the idea of wanting to play where you want to live being a huge factor. Every player spends the entire month of March away from "home". From April through September, every player will spend at minimum 81 out of 183 total days away from home, and that's only if there are no off days during the middle of road trips, and the player doesn't make the all-star team. In reality, it can be safely assumed that every player will spend at most half of the season at home, and in some cases, that's only 3-6 days at a time. Those are also the 6 months where the weather is quite nice almost everywhere. Put it another way--if someone doesn't want to spend winters in Minnesota, they can still play for the Twins, and have a very low chance of ever having to see snow, since they can spend November through February wherever they want, and March in Fort Myers.

Right now is the Twins' Perfect Storm Opportunity. Attendance at Target Field jumped to nearly 2.3M, up from 1.96M in 2018, with an average ticket cost of $37.80. Tag on an extra $10/person between concessions and merch (which is probably low), and the Twins brought in $109.6M from their 81 home games last year. The Twins FSN deal runs 4 more years (through 2023) at around $40M a year, which means last year, the Twins already had almost $150M in revenue before any ads, radio rights, or MLB funds were distributed. Now is the time for the Twins to make their move, shed the reputation of not spending, and the rewards they can reap will be massive. Imagine if the Twins can move their average attendance from just over 28k a game to 35k a game. Imagine if the average spend per attendee moves to $55 instead of $48. Target Field would now be worth $156M all on it's own. Now imagine the increased ratings FSN gets with the increased interest, and perhaps the next contract puts the Twins in the Billion club for local broadcast--the Cardinals current deal could be a template (as a team in a smaller market than the Twin Cities, but probably more popular in the St Louis market), which is 15 years and $1B. Thats another $67M in annual revenue, putting the Twins at $223M before radio, marketing, revenue distribution from MLB, or home playoff games (with the likelihood of full stadiums and dramatically increased ticket prices--say an average spend of $160 between tickets, concessions, and merch--a home playoff game is worth $5M to $6M easily), the Twins could definitely get to $300M in revenue annually. How do the Twins achieve these growth numbers? Exceed the 50% of revenue on payroll rule, and do what it takes to sign both Cole and Rendon this winter. Offer Rendon 7 years and $225M, and Cole 7 years and $250M. Give them both opt outs after 5 years to sweeten the incentive to come to Minnesota; this will accomplish a number of things. Fans will go insane. When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper, they sold 100k extra tickets. The reaction from Twins fans will assuredly exceed that. That reaction is what the Twins would be counting on to drive the increased revenue numbers I detailed above. It makes extreme baseball sense from the pitching side. A top 3 rotation of Cole, Berrios, and Odo can compete in the playoffs. If Graterol takes off, look out. Plus, with all the prospects still in the minors, the Twins could easily flip some combination of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Gordon, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Duran, or Alcala and still be able to trade for a 4th starter--say Lewis, Balazovic, and Alcala for Syndergaard? It makes extreme baseball sense from the lineup side too. If MLB truly does "de-juice" the baseball, this Twins team could use some extra OBP. Imagine a line-up of Arraez, Rendon, Cruz, Kepler, Sano, Garver, Polanco, Rosario, and Buxton (ideally, the Twins would trade Rosario, and let Cave/Wade play until Kiriloff or Larnach is ready). That is a deadly lineup, not to mention moving Sano to first vastly improves your infield defense, while barely downgrading your defense at first. The cost actually isn't even that bad. In this scenario, the Twins free up anything they would have to pay Cron (MLBTR projects $7.7M). Clear Rosario's projected $8.9M, and you're already more than a quarter of the way to Rendon and Cole's contracts--$16.6M out of $68M. The Twins would be at $142M in payroll, while still needing to pay Arraez, Cave, Wade, a backup catcher, 3 to 4 guys in the bullpen, and 2 starters. All of that should be doable for $20M, unless you are trading for a 4th starter/bringing back Pineda. While that might make extensions more difficult, you also free up $21M next year with Cruz and Marwin off the books; the Twins could decide to lock in Buxton and Sano this offseason for $20M a year between the two of them for sure if they really wanted, and still not go too much past $160M.Will the dream of Cole/Rendon happen? I'm sure it won't. But if the Twins want to change everything, it is a completely feasible way to do it.