Cap'n Piranha

Gibson, based only on stats, having not seen any of his pitches, looks like a mixed (but mostly positive) bag to me last night. 18 k/9, 20% swinging strike rate, 2/1 gb/fb ratio, and 50% chase rate are all good. 50% hard hit rate is not so ideal however.

Um, Willians in 15 high leverage PA's this season has a .690 OPS with an 86 wRC+, and has made soft contact 42.9% of the time.

Not enough length in the pen for me. Assume you get 6 from Berrios, 5 from Odorizzi, and 4 from Dobnak. Unless there's a sweep, you'll then need 9 innings in Game 4--add it up and you're looking at a minimum of 19 innings from your bullpen (losing the first two on the road in non-walkoff fashion, no extra innings). That 19 innings comes in only 5 days, so asking Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, or Littell to pitch more than 2 innings each starts getting dicey, as it would mean either a multi-inning outing, or pitching 3 times in 5 days with a back-to-back comprising two of those outings. This leaves us with 4 pitchers who would need to cover at minimum 9 innings. If Perez and Gibson each take 3, then that's only 3 innings left for the last two guys--but that assumes A) Gibson and Perez can make it three innings, and B ) no game goes into extra innings. Those seem like two big gambles to me when you could easily put Smeltzer or Thorpe on the roster instead of a 7th guy who covers an inning at a time. In that scenario, I prefer Brusdar's stuff over Stashak against the Astros or Yankees.

Oh, not personal at all--at least no more personal than you make them. I'll agree that Stashak, in a vacuum is better than Thorpe or Gibson right now (although Thorpe's numbers are dragged down by one bad outing against Cleveland). However, he can't do what the Twins are going to need from bullpen options 6-9; provide multiple innings. While Thorpe has been over 4 only once, he's been over 2 innings 5 times--Stashak has been over 2 innings once, despite 7 more appearances. When you're likely to need 13-15 innings from your bullpen in Game 3-4 (which are on consecutive days, by the way), you will need 8-10 from the bottom 3-4 guys unless you want to pitch one or more of Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, and Littell back-to back, and for the third time in either 4 or 5 days most likely. That makes having 3 guys that you ask to give you 3 innings nearly a must--putting Stashak ahead of either Gibson or Thorpe means Stashak will have to get stretched to two innings, and Graterol might have to as well (unless Graterol is left off for both Gibson and Thorpe). By the way, Thorpe is actually better against lefties than Stashak; .804 OPS against .859 OPS, .354 wOBA against .366 wOBA, 11.1 k/9 against 7.6 k/9, 4.27 xFIP against 5.25 xFIP, 20% hard hit rate against 38.7% hard hit rate. If the goal is to get another guy to face lefties besides Perez, neither Thorpe or Stashak are good options, but Stashak is worse. No need to make a wager, that interests me not at all. If I'm wrong, no big deal; I would just be really surprised if a team that will need a lot of length from its bullpen will elect for a 6th one inning guy (maybe 7th, depending on if he's behind Graterol) over a third length guy.

Who's spot is Stashak taking? If the Twins are truly doing a bullpen game in Game 4, and knowing that 5 innings is about the most they can expect in games 2 and 3, while also knowing that their ace bullpen guys are not great when not rested, length becomes very important. You have to have at least 2 long guys in the bullpen, if not 3--at this point that's Perez, Gibson and Thorpe (assuming Dobnak goes in Game 3). If the Twins are carrying 12 pitchers (which has to be the maximum), the 9 in the bullpen would for sure include Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, and Littell. Add in the 3 long guys above, and you're now at 8, so the choice would come down to Graterol or Stashak. I prefer Graterol, due to his upside, but I would not be opposed to Stashak. Also, saying it's an oversight or something else is completely meaningless. For example, should you respond to this, you will either use your keyboard, or something else.

While Gibson was awful, I can't really blame him too much--I blame the Twins for thinking a guy can bounce back from ulcerative colitis in 10 days. Gibson should have been given the rest of the season off with the only mandate to eat as much healthy food as he can get his body right. Have him pitch on the last Sunday of the regular season, and see what you have there. The Twins playoff bullpen is also going to be very interesting. Rogers, Romo, Duffey, and May are locks. With Berrios and Odo absolute locks to be the top two starters, that theoretically leaves you with 5 slots to cover two starters and 3 length guys. But if Littell and Brusdar are included, now you only have one spot, and since you need to count on at least 4 innings in Odo's start, and maybe 5 in both game 3 and 4, I have to wonder if the Twins carry 8 guys, not 7, as relievers. In this case, that would mean Dobnak, Smeltzer, Gibson, and Perez, with Thorpe an alternate if either Gibson or Perez is left off.

You seem to be assuming that Luis almost must regress, and simply repeating this year's numbers is the absolute best case scenario. This suggests you think it's impossible that he adds more muscle, turning singles into doubles and some doubles into homers. Or that with an entire offseason as the presumptive starting second baseman, he'll be able to more thoroughly study opposing AL pitchers, as opposed to this year where he spent the offseason worrying about AA pitchers. Arraez is a decent candidate to not regress, given his understanding of the strike zone (26.7% chase rate, 52nd out of 268 batters with 300+ PA's), his consistent use of all fields (all between 27.9% and 37%), his elite contact ability (3.0% swinging strike rate, 2nd of 268; 92.7% contact rate, 1st), his subsequent ability to avoid soft contact (11.1%, 16th), and his competence against all pitch types (only negative against cutters, and that's only -0.1). It seems highly unlikely that these skills will suddenly dissipate at the age of 23. Furthermore, stating that giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might regress next year ignores the possibility that not giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might progress next year. What if next year he flirts with .400 into August, before settling with a .370 average and winning the batting title by 40 points? What if the OBP hangs around .430 the entire year, but he also hits 40 doubles, and even 10 homers, leading to him OPS'ing above .900? What if his conditioning, and therefore defense and speed improve because he spends the entire offseason training in Fort Myers, as opposed to in Venezuela, where there's an actual famine going on? I don't think all, or perhaps even any of that happens, but none of that is out of the question, and if it does happen, will make him much more expensive than $5M-$7M a year. Finally, if Arraez does have 2 more years like this one (which would put him at about 10-12 career WAR before the age of 25), you probably won't be able to get him to sign a team friendly contract, as he might very will be in arbitration at that point, and looking at a $4M to $6M first year salary anyways. Team friendly deals happen because you're giving players giant raises in years you don't have to, in return for not having to give them huge raises in years you do. I posed this question already, but I'll ask again; what's worse--paying Arraez $35M over the next 7 years while he slashes .290/.330/.380, or saving at most $15M over the next 5-6 years, then watching Luis leave in free agency and win a couple batting titles?

Super 2. I don't know if Luis will attain Super 2 status, but it's certainly possible, which would give the Twins 5 years of control, barring significant injuries that allow the Twins to gain a fourth year of arbitration.

Altuve won't be a comp for arbitration because he didn't go to arbitration. Luis' first arbitration year (either 2022 or 2023) will be nearly a decade after Altuve signed that contract. Just a few things have/will have changed in terms of MLB compensation in that span.

As I understand it, Super 2 means you become arbitration eligible for the season after you achieve two years of service time. As Arraez cannot hit that mark next year (he will in all likelihood finish with 1 point something), he should have 2 years of pre-arbitration left. But if he wins a batting title in either of the next two years, that first arbitration number for his age 25 season might be more than the $4M I threw out, meaning the hypothetical $7M and $10M would be more too. You take risk signing Arraez to an extension now. But you take risk by not doing it too. And I personally would rather the Twins take the risk of a small (relatively) overpay to a league average player than watch a perennial all-star play for someone else because the Twins didn't want to pay an extra $10M to $20M over 5-6 years.

The goal for the Twins starting these last 13 games was to win every series; 2-1 against Chicago, 3-1 against the Royals, 2-1 against the Tigers, 2-1 against the Royals. Add that up, and it's 9-4--with a magic number of 9, that makes anything Cleveland does irrelevant. Last night's win secured the series win, so today we play with house money. Keep in mind that these 3 games with the White Sox were/are the hardest games left on our schedule. By far. Also, for the September thing next year, even if the Twins aren't allowed to pick 28 players from the 40 man for every series, they can still have the shuttle up and running, just from Fort Myers instead of Rochester.

Incorrect. He will cost about $1.1M the next two years, but if we assume he will continue to hit above .300 with an OBP in the .360 to .380 range, he will likely get somewhere around $20M in his 3 arb years (say $4M, $7M, and $10M as not unreasonable numbers). That's $21M for 5 years, after which he would be a free agent--the first two years of that deal would at that point surely by $10M-$12M a year. In this scenario, he would be following Kris Bryant (3 years at the minimum, FA after 6 years). If he has three more years after this one of team control, the story does change a little bit. 5 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $45M over the next 7 years 6 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $33M over the next 7 years You sign him to a 7 year, $35M deal because it creates payroll certainty for you, and because if he becomes a poor man's Jose Altuve when he's 25, you have him at $7M a year for the next 4 years, and not the $12M to $18M he might otherwise cost.

Plate discipline and control of the strike zone are skills unlikely to erode--neither is his elite contact ability (at least not until he approaches, if not hits, his 30's). Luis is, among players with 300+ PA's this year, 1st in out-of-zone contact, 5th in in-zone contact, 1st in overall contact, and 2nd in swing strike rate, all while making only 11.3% soft contact (16th). Arraez is about as good a candidate there is to maintain the tools that are his skills, ability to get hits and have a high OBP. The reason you give Arraez a contract now is because that's how you get it really cheap. For example, back in April, the Braves gave Acuna an 8 (or 10) year contract for $100M (or $134M) after only 487 PA's in the Bigs. How much more do you think the Braves would have to pay if they tried to do an extension after Acuna put up a 5 WAR season in his age 21 season? I'm not saying Arraez is the player Acuna is--I'm saying the philosophy of doing deals early is how you get deals that look like steals. After all, if you pro-rate Arraez' WAR to a 150 game season, he's a 4 WAR player.

Yeah, my bad, I did my math wrong and pulled his 2002 numbers (I had just looked at Cruz, so I had 1980 in my head). Here are the actual numbers, 100% in MLB .294/.372/.411/.783 in 554 PA's, 26 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 6.5% XBH Rate, 73 BB, 64 K, 1.14 BB/K Arraez maintains his advantage in OBP, and actually has a better bb/k ratio than Joe did, but falls behind Joe in the XBH rate, but remains ahead in slugging due to his better batting average. I still think the point remains, Arraez' numbers as a 22 year old can hold their own against Altuve and Mauer at the same age.

Yeah, I'm not looking for him to change his swing--I think Mauer is a good comp for him here. Arraez has great zone control, uses all the fields, and isn't trying to hit homers. Mauer averaged a double every 18.6 PA's, and a homer every 55.7 PA's; if Arraez matches those rates (he's not far off on doubles, but quite a ways on homers), assuming 600 PA's a year, that's 32 doubles and 11ish homers a year. Seems reasonable.

So he'll be on the team for the next 7-8 years at a team friendly price...

The guy who since the All Star break has a 4.30 ERA and is striking out less than 9/9, all with an unsustainably low .268 BABIP (his year-long mark is .303)? The guy who in his last 4 starts (against playoff-caliber teams) has a 7.65 ERA on a high (but not crazy high) .333 BABIP? I'd be fine with Syndergaard, but Twins Territory needs to collectively stop thinking he's Verlander or Cole.

Max Kepler, as a 22 year old, hit 9 homers in 500+ PA's at A+ and AA (almost entirely AA) Nelson Cruz, as a 22 year old, hit 4 homers 220+ AB's at Short A Power can develop as players get older--I'm not saying it will for Arraez, and even if it does, it's a gigantic long shot that it would become 30 homer power, but I don't think we should assume Arraez is a slower Ben Revere; after all, Revere, had 15 XBH across 390 AB's (mostly AA, cup of coffee in MLB) at age 22. Arraez has 34 across 503 AB's (SLG of .350 for Revere, .433 for Arraez). Perhaps a better way to look at it would be this--below are three age 22 seasons; Player A--.290/.340/.399/.739 in 630 PA's, 34 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 7.1% XBH Rate, 40 BB, 74 K, .54 BB/K Player B--.302/.393/.392/.785 in 476 PA's, 23 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 5.9% XBH Rate, 65 BB, 42 K, 1.55 BB/K Player C--.350/.416/.433/.849 in 566 PA's, 29 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 6.0% XBH Rate, 59 BB, 43 K, 1.37 BB/K Player C is Luis Arraez (with 58% of his PA's in MLB), Player A is Jose Altuve (100% at MLB), Player B is Joe Mauer (100% at Low A). Given that Arraez appears to have plate discipline at least as good as Mauer, if not better, and far better than Altuve, I see no reason to think his ability to put the ball in play will suffer. As he continues to develop power, I suspect he'll settle into a yearly average of 35-40 doubles, and 10-15 homers; more than enough to keep pitchers honest. In short, I would absolutely offer Arraez a 7 year, $35M contract this offseason, and be willing to go up to 7 and 50 if that's what it takes (although in that scenario I'd tack on a team option for $10M for year 8).

A couple of points; Perez hit a 3 run homer off Gibson, to turn a 1 run Twins lead into a 2 run defecit. Don't pitch Gibson the rest of the regular season, except maybe for a side session in about 10 days. Call me crazy, but I don't think 10 days was enough to deal with colitis. Give him more rest--the earliest you would theoretically need him is for Game 3 on Monday the 7th. If Rosie is heating back up, it's a perfect opportunity to give Cruz and Kepler some rest; Arraez, Rosie, Sano, Garver, and Polanco can hold down the offense. Consider punting the game against Giolito, almost like what we were thinking of doing Saturday night before it worked out. Rest almost everyone, and instead focus on winning tonight and Wednesday. Do that, and the worst case scenario is a 4 game lead and a magic number of 7 on Thursday. The playoffs bullpen should be Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, Littell, Dobnak, and Smeltzer. The starters would be Berrios, Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson. You'll need both Dobnak and Smeltzer for length, particularly since Games 3 and 4 are back-to-back in both the ALDS and ALCS (if you get there). That unfortunately leaves Brusdar out, but at this point I don't think the Twins are willing to stretch him more than an inning, and I trust the other 5 more.

Jake Ododrizzi is 21st for starters in all of baseball in WAR this year, after being 30th last year (22nd for both years combined). Nelson Cruz is 6th in all of baseball for wRC+. Marwin Gonzalez has been a key piece to lineup flexibility and giving players breaks, while being 10th on the team in WAR (ahead of Eddie Rosario) Michael Pineda has been worth 2.7 WAR this year (38th in baseball) Martin Perez has been worth 1.8 WAR this year (55th in baseball) Sergio Romo has thrown 18 innings of 3.50 ERA relief, and stabilized a bullpen that is a top 10 unit since he was acquired Zack Littell, Devin Smeltzer, Jake Cave, and Randy Dobnak all look like they will be significant pieces moving forward, and this all excludes Castro and Schoop (3.6 WAR between them), and Harper (0.9 WAR). So this year, 60% of the rotation, somewhere around 40% of the lineup, and about 25% of the bullpen were brought in by this front office (If everyone is healthy and not suspended, I count 11 players that would be on the Twins Playoff Roster--Odo, Pineda, Perez, Romo, Dyson, Littell, Cruz, Cron, Castro, Schoop, and Gonzalez). That's minimal to you?

This goes back to my point above--why wouldn't they get credit for those guys developing? It happened while they were 100% in charge of the baseball operations of this franchise. If you're going to not give them credit for Garver, Polanco, Kepler, or Arraez because you think that credit goes to the player, then in order to be intellectually honest, you can't blame them for Parker, Romero, or any of the others, since that would also go to the player. Pineda's suspension is 0% on Falvine, since Pineda himself said he took the substance without consulting the Twins. Dyson had a 2.47 ERA and 2.72 FIP on the year when the Twins acquired him, when not even the Giants knew he was hurt--Falvine are now supposed to be clairvoyant, and know about injuries players have deliberately hidden when there is absolutely no sign of them? Romo's ERA with the Twins is 3.5, compared to May's 3.04--hardly a huge disparity given the SSS of relievers. In fact, if Romo's next two outings are scoreless, his Twins ERA drops to 3.15; if May gives up one run in his next outing, his ERA rises to 3.14. In other words, its hardly far-fetched to say that after Sunday's game, Romo and May will have essentially identical ERA's.

No, they didn't inherit a good young team. They inherited a team that had just lost 100 games, and through some great signings, a couple of shrewd trades, and generally good player development, have managed to assemble a top 5 team in all of baseball, while still maintaining a top 10 farm system. If you don't want to give them credit for players improving, then you also can't blame them for players declining, and therefore means that there's no real purpose to having a front office.

I have to quibble with the idea that there was anything redeeming about Gibson's start last night. His WHIP was 2.57. He gave up 73% hard contact. Who cares if one of his pitches can't be hit if all the others are batting practice.

The Twins lineup last night was missing 11.8 WAR from just this year (12.4 if you count Adrianza). The Yankees were missing 3.6. If you did the WAR for the last full year for each of the Yankees players, it's 17.4, but that is also counting this year for Tauchman--use last year's number for him and it's 14.3. Did the Yankees theoretically have more WAR missing from last night's lineup? Sure, but it's much closer thank you think.

And Gonzalez. They also signed Pineda and acquired Odorizzi, Romo, and Dyson. They have developed Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey to much more than anyone thought they would be when the calendar flipped to 2017, while overseeing the reclamation of Buxton and Sano. They've done some stupid things, but have also hit plenty of homeruns. Let's be careful about associating every bad part of this season as solely Falvine's fault.