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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    This is interesting, I did not realize Reed had been throwing that many pitches consistently. That being said, 40 days is about 22% of the major league season, so throwing 270 pitches in the first 40 days puts you on pace for about 1,230 over the course of a full year. Over the past 5 years, that number would be in the top 20 for most pitches thrown by a reliever every year. A reliever who did that every year for the past 5 years would actually be 2nd in number of pitches thrown over that timeframe. To me, this suggests overwork, and perhaps Reed was able to get away with it in 2016 and 2017 when he was 27 and 28. Perhaps last year, after having thrown the 11th most pitches of any reliever from 2014 to 2017, he just wasn't able to handle that workload any more, which would mean 270 pitches in 40 days was, for Addison Reed, being overworked.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    I enjoy that you say you're not the one tossing out chunks of time, and then immediately proceed to toss out a chunk of time in your restatement. Unless of course you don't consider the time from the beginning of the 2018 season through Reed's injury to actually be time. You initially made, and in the above post re-made, an argument that Reed/Reed's numbers before his injury last year were not good. You've yet to provide any supporting evidence whatsoever for this, and when I provided evidence that contradicted your assertion, you segued into a tangent demanding I provide evidence for my claims, which again, you've yet to do yourself. As you yourself admit, you don't know the health level of players--therefore isn't it reasonable to suggest it's possible some players, including potentially Addison Reed, were playing not at full health, especially since I provided you with two examples of players who were known to have played at less than full health just last year? And if we can't quantify if a player is fully healthy, shouldn't we perhaps consider that a player was hurt before he was injured, and that could be a contributing factor in his decline before a trip to the IL? Finally, I'm not saying players should play while hurt, I'm saying that they do, in the past, the present, and the future. That will never change. If you only wanted to play players who were 100% healthy, you would have to forfeit every game due to not having anyone available to play. Teams need to learn to manage the difference between hurt and injured, and ensure the former doesn't become the latter. With that, unless you want to provide some actual hard evidence to suggest that pitching hurt did not play a role in Reed's decline prior to his IL trip last year, I'm going to move on from this discussion, with a full rejection of your subjective assertion.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    I want Arraez to be the bridge at second base between Schoop and Polanco (assuming Lewis in 2021 or 2022 pushes Polanco to second). Bat him ninth; a really good hit guy with good plate discipline to turn the lineup over, and give Byron plenty of opportunities to steal bases. After that, he can become the next Marwin/Ehire, and spell everyone in the infield. And even better, he's still only 22, and will be this entire year.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm cautiously optimistic that Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson are all going to be good options going forward. That being said, they probably are not all going to spend the rest of the year pitching like all-stars. For me, the bullpen issue is less about Gibson "only" throwing 88 pitches and 6 innings (keeping starters rested is a good idea too), but rather the use of 3 pitchers to do the final 3 innings in an 8 run game. I'd rather in situations like that Baldelli only use 1-2 pitchers, and keep more of the pen rested. It's very easy to have a guy who "needs work" throw a bullpen session before or after a game. For me, the rule of bullpens is always assume you'll need them in the future. After all, it only takes an early injury to a starter, and a bit of ineffectiveness for this bullpen to go from well-rested to in need of rest.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Ryan Mason is intriguing, hopefully he gets pushed to AAA this summer, and perhaps a look in September. I still think Gordon is more likely to be trade bait than a significant player for the Twins, especially if he restores some prospect luster this summer. Arraez has a 145 wRC+, and has never been below 100, at any level, in his entire career. He's also 18 months younger, and has nice positional flexibility, having played 14 games at second, 12 at third, and 5 at short so far this year. Add in Lewis at A+, and hopefully Javier at A-, and Gordon seems to be easily replaceable on the organizational MI depth chart.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Using the assumption that every player on the field is healthy is severely flawed in my opinion. Just last year, we saw Byron Buxton pressed into service when he was not healthy. If I remember correctly, Logan Morrison also played much of the year not truly healthy. Is it really so hard to believe that Reed either didn't disclose being hurt (not necessarily injured), or he was simply going out at 80-90% (which I'm sure many players do on a regular basis), and that simply erased his margin for error? Or do you have explicit evidence that the team, the medical staff, and himself all did NOT allow him to pitch while injured?
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I have no idea on what date he was injured, although I think we should also clarify that injured and hurt are not necessarily mutually inclusive. I'm not assuming an injury or hurt is the sole cause of a decline in Reed's 2018 performance, but nor do I think, based on his March/April stats, which he then repeated in September, that an injury or hurt can be ruled out so casually and completely as you did when you stated in blanket terms, "Reed was not good before his injury". I was simply debating your original, sweeping assertion, which was easy to at least partially refute.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    35% more pitches feels pretty egregious to me. It seems reasonable to assert that the more pitches you throw, the longer it takes your arm to fully recover (after all, starters go at minimum 3 days in between appearances, and that's almost exclusively reserved for extraordinary circumstances). Therefore, I think we can safely say a pitcher being used more often, and for longer stretches, is being more "worked", so while think Rogers, until recently, was being borderline overworked, it seems pretty clear that both Reed and Pressly were definitely overworked at this point last year.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Totally fair. I forgot we're in an era where half of the league isn't really competing.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Especially given Brian's 69 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR so far this year.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Except through May 7 this year Rogers has thrown 206 pitches. Through May 6 last year, Reed had thrown 277, which is the equivalent of almost 4 more appearances. Pressly had thrown 281. I think it's pretty clear Reed and Pressly were getting quite overused last year, and you can't dismiss that as a factor in Reed's decline.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Just like every player looks bad if you throw out their good months and only count their bad months? You stated he wasn't good before his injury. I provided a number that demonstrates that not to be true (to at least some extent). In no way did I cherry pick--I looked at a timeframe in which you said he wasn't good, and provided evidence that, actually, he was.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Go check out the playoff odds on fangraphs--the Twins are now favored to win the division.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    3.3 FIP in March/April suggests otherwise. He also had a 2.22 FIP in September when he returned. Reed's not prime Andrew Miller or anything, but he certainly represents an upgrade to our bullpen.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but in terms of adding Javier to the 40-man, isn't that only if they don't want him to be rule V eligible? Unless he tears it up and somehow makes it to AA this year, I can't envision any organization using a 25 man spot next year on him.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Houston is definitely a good offense, but Toronto is 26th in wRC+ and 27th in OPS.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Very nice win, especially against the team that put us on the only truly disheartening series of the year thus far. Having not pitched since Thursday, and only needing 8 pitches to get through the 8th, I would have liked to see Harper just finish the game. The pen is fully rested, so not a huge deal here, but doing things like that to give yourselves more rested options is something Baldelli needs to learn to do in the future. Dan Gladden's adherence to old-school smallball tactics is grating. Before Castro's RBI groundout last night, Gladden stated the goal should be, with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs, to hit a ground ball to the right side. When Castro did that, he called it "perfect".
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    He also has a .200 babip, well below his career norm of .291. Give him 9 more hits on the year, and all of the sudden he's batting .294 with a .351 OBP and at worst a .500 SLG (assuming all 9 hits are singles. Since Cron averages 2 bases per hit, his SLG would more likely be .526). This puts him at an OPS in the .850 to .875 range, which puts him in the mid 40's to mid-50's in the league (somewhere between Yoan Moncada and Kris Bryant), and in the top half of first basemen. That being said, he is making less hard contact, and more soft contact, which suggests a lower babip might not be an outlier. I'm in favor of upgrading our first base spot, but it's still possible the upgrade is simply Cron progressing to the mean.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Navaretto has twice caught 80 or more games in a season, so while it is rare, it happens. That being said, with two potential major leaguers, I'd prefer to see them both get more time to aid in their development.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I'd like to see either Rortvedt or Jeffers promoted to AA, so both of them can get 75-80% of the time behind the plate. A plethora of cheap number 4 and 5 starters is what will allow the Twins to compete going forward. And if a guy doesn't develop into that, you can always try the Trevor May/Taylor Rogers route, and build out your bullpen. SSS, but Lewis has an almost .800 OPS in May. He's done a nice job of holding his own in controlling the strike zone (16 bb to 26 k), but really struggled against righties (.511 OPS, compared to .978 against lefties).
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Well then I think to fix the team, we should recall Drew Maggi from AAA. After all, once we do that we can simply ignore his .438 OPS at AAA. And DJ Baxendale, with his 11.57 ERA and 2.57 WHIP is just what the bullpen needs, since those numbers are obviously irrelevant the moment he puts on a Twins uniform.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Arraez is doing some interesting things--.321 Avg, .384 OBP with as many walks as strikeouts. Schales has a .905 OPS, despite striking out in nearly half his AB's Rortvedt has an .817 OPS (fangraphs puts him at a 154 wRC+), and also has as mnay walks as strikeouts, with half of his hits going for extra bases.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Pensacola, as a TEAM, has a 1.77 ERA. They are almost 1.5 runs better than second place Montgomery at 3.23. They also have 210 k's (10.5 a game), most in the league by 25 (Mobile at 185, which is 9.7 a game).
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    This also might just be Marwin. Historically, he's struggled against breaking balls (he grades out worst against the curve, and then sliders). This year, he's seeing those pitches a combined 37.8% of the time--fastballs are at 36.2%. Until he shows an ability to handle those pitches, this isn't going to get better.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    In a doubleheader, you can call up a 26th man. They could have brought up Stewart, Littell, or Thorpe to pitch the Saturday night cap as the 26th man, and it would have been less stress on the team than the two total innings they got from Romero. It would have then allowed Perez to start on Sunday, Gibson on Monday, Odorizzi on Tuesday, and Pineda last night. Personally, I think MLB should also institute a rule anytime an unscheduled doubleheader causes a team to play 6 games in 5 days; in addition to the 26th man the day of the DH, they should be granted a waiver to bring up a player for the 6th game in that string, so long as they "deactivate" another player so there's no competitive disadvantage to the competing team. In other words, the Twins could have brought up Stewart to pitch last night, and instead of designating Cave, simply deactivated Pineda for a game.
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