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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Agree, banning the shift won't actually result in more interesting baseball (unless your idea of exciting baseball is weak grounders dribbling 20 ft into the outfield), as lefties will continue to sell out for loft and power--there's even less disincentive to do that if the shift is banned. Further, banning the shift might not actually ban the shift. Teams might still play the 1B and 3B where they currently do with the shift legal, and have the 2B and SS motion into traditional shift positions as soon as the pitcher starts his windup--if the SS is positioned literally 1 inch to the left of second base, and the 2B is literally one inch off the outfield grass, they would still be "banned shift compliant". If MLB truly wants more baserunners, and more action on the bases, the only way that happens is if the HR is devalued--I would propose one of the three ways below; Each team has a max number of out-of-the-park HRs they can hit, whether in a game or in a season. After that, out-of-the-park HRs are outs. The number of runs scored on an out-of-the-park HR is always 1, but all bases are emptied all the same--that is, if the bases are loaded, and an out-of-the-park HR is hit, only one run is scored, and all runners are taken away. Every out-of-the-park HR creates the same number of outs as runs scored. This means that all grandslams and 3R HRs always end the half inning, 2R HRs end the inning unless there are no outs, and solo HRs create one out.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm betting Falvine can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    There's a small chance he waits, even with a good-not-great year in 2022--Turner and Bogaerts will probably be hitting the market after 2022, whereas post-2023 looks totally barren right now. Correa could do worse than bank $70M, and then be the only better than average SS option on the market, all while still under 30.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    The last line of your post is the only thing that matters at this juncture. No point in using assets to add more offense when you might already be looking at Lewis Thorpe or Devin Smeltzer as your 5th starter.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, this will be very interesting indeed. I personally don't think the needle moves too much, as I imagine total payroll will move to something like $4.1B to $4.2B, so average WAR will go up a bit. What I'm most fascinated to see is if that results in more MLB contracts going to MiLB players--if the theory is that players in arbitration will be less likely to sign away arb/FA years now that they'll be paid more, I can see teams going to AA players far more aggressively. I can see a world where the Twins offer Austin Martin a 6 year, $20M contract with two option years at $12M and $15M; for Martin, worst case scenario is he retires having cleared something like $12M-$13M after taxes. Best case scenario he hits FA after his age 30 season having cleared $25M-$26M after taxes.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Then the Twins miss the playoffs by 14 games instead of 11.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    He had a better FIP in 2021 than Jon Gray, Zac Gallen, Mike Minor, Rich Hill, Jameson Taillon, Michael Wacha, and Jake Odorizzi (among others). He had a better xFIP in 2021 than Adrian Houser, Mike Minor, Aaron Civale, John Means, and Casey Mize (among others). He's not an ace or even a #2, but he's a very solid #3 or good #4, which would be welcome on an extremely shallow Twins rotation.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    That's what WAR is worth on the FA market, which is far and away the most expensive place to buy WAR. Collectively, MLB records about 1,000 WAR a season--given that the total salary for all MLB players is about $4B, that means one WAR is actually worth $4M, on average.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Berrios did indeed sign an extension. With Toronto. Perhaps that is not a salient detail. Or maybe it is the only salient detail; speculate all you want.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    $9M is definitely an overpay for 1 WAR, unless free agency is literally the only place you can obtain a 1 WAR LF/DH. I'm not familiar with the Braves' MiLB outfield depth, so perhaps that is the case. That said, I doubt it--218 hitters accumulated at least 1 WAR last year, with another 70 between 0.5 WAR and 1 WAR--so it should be pretty easy to find that for $1.5M or less across a player or two. Heck, Kyle Garlick put up 0.2 WAR in only 107 PAs last year--get that level of production, and that's right around 1 WAR over 162 games; even if he only produces at half that rate, the Braves still save $7M+ a year and only lose 0.5 WAR
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    This suggests that you think Berrios' agent did not act in a way Berrios desired. I find that hard to believe.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    I'll take the same tack I took prior to 2020--if Falvine are good enough with prospects to build a contending team at a sustainable level, they can afford a mega-contract for a player at a position it's hard to develop (Ace, All-star SS, etc). If they aren't good enough to do that (i.e. they will need to save payroll for other FAs to play a bigger part on the team), then they shouldn't be running the team anyways. I'm good with Story, I just kind of feel like if you're going to play in the FA market, you may as well go for it.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm perhaps missing something--what's not to like about Correa, other than he doesn't play for the Twins?
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I will accept "bust" as long as it's in the form of Carlos Correa.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Next time you're going to write something this long and detailed, let me know beforehand.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Completely agree that I don't think it's what is actually happening. But if the true motivation behind trading for Gray was to compete in 2022, then turning around and trading Donaldson and IKF makes zero sense, unless it's to clear payroll space. As there are only two players left who would require anything close to the amount of payroll space now available, I have to think the plan, when trading for Gray, was to sign Story or Correa (most likely Story). If that's the plan, then stop trying to be cute, and just make his camp a Godfather Offer, otherwise this entire offseason has been pointless at best, or an unmitigated disaster at worst. To wit, if they don't sign Story/Correa, the Twins in effect just traded Garver, Donaldson, and Rortvedt for Urshela and Sanchez. That is a fireable offense, IMO.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    And you are basing this feeling on....what, exactly?
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Almost twice as many people in the metro area, and a better climate. If Berrios wanted to live in a city, there really isn't a comparison between Toronto and MSP. Also, as the only remaining team in CA, TOR might provide some more endorsement opportunities as well. It makes no sense to say Buxton would have been traded if Falvine had their way--they are running the team, and it is therefore their way. Being wary of overspending on an oft-injured player about to turn 28 who was potentially having an outlier year while staring a potential rebuild in the face is hardly an unreasonable position to take.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Unless Falvine think they can make Gray look like Berrios for 4 months, and flip him for another AM/SWR package at the end of July. Normally I would say that's just crazy, but it sure seems like Falvine definitely believe in their ability to develop pitching, given their total lack of activity in FA prior to the lockout.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Right now the Twins are good on every position except 3--SS, C, Rotation (although it should be noted this doesn't mean it isn't possible to upgrade at other positions, an upgrade will just be more expensive for less return). To that end, the Twins should not be trying to acquire anyone who doesn't play one of those 3 positions unless the deal is just too good to pass up. For me, I don't think Chapman fits that bill--I'd rather get Manaea AND Montas if we're going to get two guys from the A's.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    To be honest? Prior to the 2021 season I would have said yes (replace SWR with say, Balazovic). Right now I say no. I don't think this does enough to get the Twins into a Top 4 of the league in 2022, and if the Twins indeed bring Story aboard, I don't think they extend Manaea. I further don't think they extend Chapman (especially because you might need to play Lewis and/or Martin there part time, not to mention Miranda), so that feels like a lot to give up for 3 years of control when those years aren't likely WS-contending ones.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    I imagine Sano and Kiriloff will split 1B, with AK also getting a fair amount of time in LF/spelling Kepler in RF/playing RF when Kepler plays CF. Given Sanchez' recent production, I'm not sure the Twins are super keen on getting him a lot of PAs--I imagine he will play mostly as a bench piece (assuming he doesn't get flipped somewhere). I'm not totally opposed to the idea that Miranda starts in AAA either, and gets called up when the first injury hits, I just tend to think that out of a 5-man non-1B infield crew of Polanco/Story/Arraez/Miranda/Urshela, Urshela is the guy I'd want getting the fewest PAs.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    I don't think you got my point. You asked who would want to pitch for a team giving away its best players (I inferred you meant the Twins). I responded that virtually any pitcher would want to pitch for the Twins, either because it means they choose to sign with the Twins (with opening day barely three weeks away, time grows short), or they were traded to the Twins. In the case of the trade, that pitcher could certainly retire instead of suit up for the Twins, but that would mean forgoing millions in wages--I consider that to be an unlikely event.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    For sure--the Twins could have signed Story even with Donaldson (whether they would is a separate debate). I wasn't super high on the Gray trade in a vacuum (he's not that much less expensive than Stroman or Rodon, neither of whom would have required relinquishing a top-10 system prospect). In essence, the Twins in that trade declared their belief that the first 6 years of Petty's career are worth less than $30M to $60M (the difference in cost between two years of Gray and Rodon/Stroman, plus Petty's wages in those 6 years). That only makes sense if you're trying to compete now, and if that's the case, trading your starting third baseman and shortstop (who cost you your starting catcher) is completely nonsensical. If no further big ticket move materializes, Falvine done screwed up.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Almost every pitcher still unsigned who wants to get paid in return for playing baseball. Every pitcher under team control who doesn't want to retire and forgo millions in future earnings. It's a pretty extensive list, actually.
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