Cap'n Piranha

He's hit 6 homers in 18 games. That's 54 homers in a 162 game season; that's only happened 26 times in baseball history. His BABIP is .286 (well below his career average of .345), which is 105th in the league. His soft contact percentage is now under 5, at 4.9%. That is best among the 345 hitters with 80 or more PA's this year, by almost 2 percentage points (Tyler Austin is next at 6.8%). His hard contact percentage is at 51.2%, which is 11th among the 345 hitters with 80 or more PA's. This is what Miguel Sano is--a guy that will always strikeout a lot, but will be legitimately one of the very best power hitters in the league when he doesn't. There is immense value to that.

I have to throw some cold water on the Larnach love, as he has slowed down since May--his 1.040 OPS in June is down from 1.075 in May. In all seriousness, he's now up to an .873 OPS in the pitcher-friendly FSL as a 22 year old. I expect him to stay there through July so as not to risk a dip in his numbers at AA, leaving his trade value unaffected (unless of course Falvine thinks of him as untouchable). If Lewis doesn't string a couple of good months together, Larnach will be nipping at his heels in the prospect rankings.

Even more disturbing when you factor in that the Rays weren't going all out to win the last couple of games over the weekend either, thanks to Kevin Cash's insistence on not using his 11 man bullpen too harshly. We're going to be fine in the regular season--there's just too many games left against teams that can't hope to stop our bats for 2 out of 3 games, but absent impactful upgrades, this team seems ticketed for a 3-1 exit in the ALDS.

Miguel Sano before tonight's (Wednesday) game; 1.009 OPS, .406 wOBA, 156 wRC+. Not only is his offense seen as above average thus far this season, so is his defense AND baserunning. He's accumulated 0.8 WAR in only 14 games--in a 154 game season, that's a 9 WAR season. Sure he strikes out a lot, but he also has nearly a 50% hard hit rate, and only a 6.5% soft hit rate--in other words, the 65% of the time he makes contact, it's medium contact or better 9 times out of 10. This piece smacks of something the writer threw together on the heels of Monday's 0-3 with a strikeout, without any manner of research whatsoever. I'm not sure how else a piece running Sano down could be posted.

Embarrassing. The Indians were giving this one away, and we wouldn't let them. We'll make the playoffs I think, but we are not a match for the Yankees or Astros right now. Not even close.

I mean, to be fair, Kimbrel's about the best pitcher ever to go nine months without pitching due to non-injury reasons.

Some value is better than no value, which is what they'll get for Scherzer in two years. If they think they can compete in the next two years, fine, I just think that's a little foolhardy. Reason being, even more so than the Angels, the Nats have no real clear path to improvement currently. Next year they have $146M tied up in 12 players, with 3 players hitting arb 1, two hitting arb 2, and one hitting arb 3. even if they get good deals there, and keep all 8 of those players for a total of $11M, they're closing on $160M, and still need 5 more guys, including a re-signing/replacement of far and away their best offensive player, Rendon. Signing him puts them quite close to $180M, which is their historical threshold. Unfortunately, the Nationals cannot really fill in from within the system. Fangraphs puts their farm system at 28th, and that's WITH Robles and Kieboom. Subtract those two, and the Nats have 3 players with an FV above 40 (the Twins have 12 for reference). One is Luis Garcia (who currently has a 46 wRC+ in AA), second is Mason Denaburg (HS pitcher drafted last year, assigned to the GCL, yet to throw a professional pitch), and third is Wil Crowe, who is pitching well at AA. Their depth is also bad, as they only have 22 prospects with FV above 35--the Twins have 41. All this means that not only are reinforcements not on the way, the Nats can't trade for more reinforcements without plundering their big league roster. So the Nats are a team 5 games below .500, less than 50% to make the playoffs this year, in a division with two teams with better cores and better farm systems, have no internal reinforcements on the way, scant player capital to trade for upgrades, and negligible money to sign upgrades in free agency. If they believe in the ability of Robles, Kieboom, and Turner to turn into 4-5 WAR players in the next two years, then they should keep Scherzer. If not, and I lean on the not side right now, getting ANYTHING for Scherzer (and if that something is Graterol, Gordon, Larnach, and maybe more--that's not too bad) is a plus, as opposed to nothing in 2 years.

I didn't say give up. I said sacrifice now, when you can't compete anyways, for a future when you can. True, the Astros aren't going anywhere, which makes it all the more imperative that the Angels stop trying to break through to 88 wins and hopefully a wild card, but actually do some radical things to get into the 90's.

I'm not too concerned with the pitching, this is a chance to see what our depth looks like should we need to use internal options to replace injured/ineffective starters. I'm not even concerned about the offense for the rest of the season. What I am concerned about with the offense is a potential vulnerability based on it's philosophy. The 2019 Twins are like a boxer who has a huge uppercut, and therefore becomes a knockout artist. If the punches are landing, and usually they are, you're going to be unbeatable. But if you face someone who never gives you that opening, what's the fall back? Last night, Bieber was at 36 pitches through 2 innings, and 67 through 4. He somehow pitched into the 8th. In the first game of a series, getting to the bullpen is a good thing. I would have liked to see a more patient approach in innings 5 and 6 on a guy who was at 60% strikes on the night

By great hitter, do you mean Upton or Ohtani? Ohtani has a 90 wRC+, -0.2 WAR, and a .690 OPS--the very definition of replacement level. Sure, his babip is sub .300, and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%, but even if his babip goes up, he just moves towards good, not great. Even that might not help that much, since his GB rate has skyrocketed to over 53%, and he's sitting on an unsustainable 33% HR/FB ratio. If you mean Upton, he was pegged for about 2 WAR entering the season, a season in which he'll turn 32. The track record for hitters at 32 and after is not great. Add in the reality of his injury (which is to his toe), and it's possible he's not what he's been even when he comes back--ask Byron Buxton what playing with a not fully 100% toe can do to your game. The problem the Angels have is that even when the season started they were projected to be 15 games behind the Astros, so getting 3 WAR from each of the starting pitchers (which is more than any of them have ever produced) and 3 WAR from Upton still leaves them 3 games back of the Astros. Meanwhile, despite having two legitimately great hitters come out of nowhere (Fletcher is on pace for nearly 6 WAR after having a 56 wRC+ in AAA 2 years ago, La Stella is on pace for 5.5 WAR after being worth 0.2 in 123 games last year), their projection has fallen to 79 wins, almost 25 games behind the Astros, a team with a much better roster, and a better farm system.

It is a recipe for avoiding rock bottom if the return is a parachute and a trampoline. It's my whole point--if you can't win this year (36% chance to make the playoffs, 5th in line for a wild card), and you don't think you'll be there the next two either, why sit around for two more years of mediocrity, and then start the rebuild? Instead, start the rebuild now with the best piece you have, since it's not going to do you any more real good? This is the crux of my argument from our discussion of the Angels situation in the Trout thread. Early returns (and it is still early, as it's a 3 year timeframe) indicate I was right. The Angels are 4th in their division, 10th in their league, have a 0 run differential and a 4.5% chance at the playoffs with an 80 win projection. The instant your current core can no longer realistically get you to the postseason, let alone compete in the postseason, tear down and shorten your rebuild. If not, you'll be the Orioles who didn't start their rebuild until halfway through the 2018 season, and therefore, will have 2-3 more years of abysmal baseball to muddle through. As for the Nats getting a return package along with salary relief, that's why I proposed adding Rendon. Pairing those two should make a team willing to pay in both prospects and dollars.

My High School math teacher called the lottery a tax on people who are bad at math.

Bauer has a 4.08 FIP and 4.47 xFIP. He's walking 4 batters per nine, while his k rate is down from last year. His FB rate is up, as is his hr/fb ratio, and all of this with an artificially low .257 babip. I'd be hesitant to trade JUST Thorpe and Cave, let alone throwing in our best pitching prospect and a 26 year old OPS'ing 1.036. If the Twins offered that, the Indians would assume they were being prank called.

I didn't ignore them, I was pointing out the dearth of producing offensive talent on this Nats team, and the likelihood that what talent they do have that is currently producing could largely be elsewhere/in full decline mode soon. Soto is the one young guy who is above average offensively currently--that being said, his k rate is up, bb rate is down, and his babip is somewhat inflated. Given how bad he is defensively, any slip in offense impacts his value greatly. Turner's wRC+ for the last 3 years (including his injury-shortened 2019) are 104,105, and 88. He's maintained value due to good defense and baserunning, but both have disappeared this year. Given that the injury that's cost him time this year was a broken finger, it's possible this is the beginning of the end of his elite speed, which could render him a decent player only. Robles has seen his k rate surge, which when combined with a collapse in his hard hit %, but a babip not far off his career numbers, suggest he's not a surefire offensive weapon. His defense has never been great, so failure to hit makes him dangerously close to replacement level. Kieboom has less than 50 MLB PA's, but struck out 37% of the time, while only slugging .282. An absurdly low .143 babip and really good 43.5% hard hit rate suggest those numbers will improve, but he's clearly not going to step in and be a key cog in a playoff-level offense just yet. While all 4 of those players are intriguing, other than Soto, I don't know that you can say with confidence they're going to have 40% of a 1st division lineup in the next couple of years.

Wherein did I say trading Scherzer was identical to what the Yankees did? I said they could act like the Yankees did--a team that expected to contend that wasn't, and rather than just running things back, acted aggressively to improve their future state. As you noted, doing so has allowed them to have Paxton, Torres, and Britton, 3 key members of their current team. And while the two top 100 prospects in the Miller trade haven't become stars (as of now), I'll point you to Tampa trading 3.5 years of Chris Archer for Meadows and Glasnow as a not unrealistic possibility for what can happen when you get top 100 prospects. Perhaps I should have worded more carefully; trading Scherzer now can help the Nationals shorten a rebuild. After all, it's a lot easier to get back up if you avoid rock bottom. If the Nats do intend to build around Soto, Robles, Turner, Kieboom, and Corbin, getting additional players in that age range can turn a nucleus into a core. The Nats will need to decide how seriously they'll be able to compete the next two years (when Scherzer will be 35 and 36)--my assertion is that selling Scherzer at the height of his value may be the best move.

MLB Drafts are crapshoots, particularly when they're being mocked by non MLB FO types. Based on mocks, Mike Trout would have been a tremendous reach in 2011. Eddie Rosario and Justin Morneau are two more examples of guys who would have been reaches in the first round. Also, power can develop; witness one Brian Dozier. Not saying any of this will happen, just that being upset about the draft picks right now is like being upset about a team's offense after they go down 1-2-3 in the first inning of game 1 of the season.

Correct. $15M a year 2022 through 2028.

Rendon is gone (or at least he's UFA) after this year, and he is by far their best offensive player. In fact, they only have 5 players above a 100 wRC+, and two of them are Howie Kendrick and Kurt Suzuki--not exactly great building blocks. A third is Gerardo Parra, who is 32, and has only been a 3 WAR player once in his career, and that was 6 years ago. 4 of their top 8 prospects are pitchers (2 at AA, one at A+, and the other in rookie ball--HS pick last year). I think if I'm the Nats, I have to decide if I want to keep trying to compete with the Phillies and Braves with a team that seems to be declining, or pull a 2016 Yankees, and sell off valuable pieces in return for hauls and avoid a potential rebuild altogether.

In other news, the Twins confirmed their interest in trading for Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout. In all seriousness though, if we're going to upgrade the rotation, let's actually upgrade the rotation. Hat tip to Chief, who was the first I saw suggesting this; go get Scherzer. The Nats probably need to blow it up, and getting out from under Scherzer's salary would help. Be bold, take all the salary, and either save prospects to use to get Smith or Giles, or go really bold, and get Rendon in the deal as well.

I think in one game samples, run differential is an extremely important stat.

Not sure if you've heard or not, but apparently we haven't played in the Metrodome in a decade.

Second is probably his best position, but he played a fair amount at short and third. Arraez will see much of his future value come from positional flexibility, much like Marwin.

It is criminal the extent to which the Angels are wasting Mike Trout. If their MiLB system doesn't start churning out quality regulars, Trout's going to be 30 before he gets another chance at his first playoff win.

This makes me think of John Stirling, Yankee radio play-by-play. I think for rest of the game thread, we need to come up with the the home run catchphrase for each Twin. I'll start with the obvious one; "Kepler goes Max Power!"

Not no matter what--perhaps I explained it poorly. There is a possibility wherein he develops in the US far better than in Japan, and therefore over his career would make more having made less to start.