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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    MLBPipeline are slightly more generous graders but they have Lee a 55 and Jenkins a 60. They have Soto as a 50 which puts him in the Twins' 3-6 range pre-draft. I'm a fan of Longenhagen's work, but honestly it seemed like he got way behind on the prospect lists this year and I don't know how much time he really had to really properly evaluate the draft, so I tend to go a little more with the other outlets this year.
  2. 2wins87
    I think I would put Jenkins 1st. It could be premature if he struggles a bit out of the gate, but if he does do well in his first taste of professional ball I think everyone will have him first. I would be tempted to have Soto as the top pitching prospect. He's got a frame and velocity reminiscent of Duran and lots of time to hopefully develop into a starter. For the time being I think I will slot him 7th, behind Raya and Festa and ahead of Prielipp and Martin. Keaschall and Winokur are probably both in my top 20. The system is quite deep right now but doesn't seem to have a ton of potential high impact guys.
  3. 2wins87
    I would rather see him stay as the first up rotation depth, and have that allow Varland to possibly help the bullpen this year. I think Varland has stuff that could play up a little better as a reliever. The only downside would possibly be making it harder for Varland to transition back to a starter role next year, but I don't think that should be a huge concern. It sounds like Stewart and Thielbar are both fairly close to returning, but I would still trust Varland as much or more than Balazovic, Headrick, Sands or Ortegas who have recently been featured in the bullpen.
  4. 2wins87
    Mlb.com noted that the Twins have never gone over their draft pool when signing players. I have wondered if they might find this draft to be deep enough for it to be worthwhile. With all of the HS picks they could already be bumping up against their pool, but they would have around an extra $700K to spend before losing picks next year. With the tax it's basically the amount of money to sign a pretty mediocre veteran. It doesn't seem like any team has decided to blow through their pool yet, though maybe we could see it today with a few of the remaining HS players. I don't really expect the Twins to be the team to do it but it's still an interesting thing to watch for.
  5. 2wins87
    I really like what they did in the first 5 rounds getting a lot of upside with their HS picks. I'm not sure I see as much obvious upside in their 6-10 picks as they have gotten in past years, but it's never easy to see it ahead of time. If history is a guide, they will still find someone today that turns into a developmental success. The best so far: 2022 - Cossetti, 11th, Culpepper, 13th 2021 - Festa, 13th, Nowlin, 19th 2019 - Varland, 15th, Julien, 18th* 2018 - Funderburk, 15th 2017 - Ober, 12th Still not clear how much mlb value they will get from most. 2018 might be the one miss, but Funderburk still looks like he could be a decent mlb reliever. *Julien was rated/paid more like a 3rd/4th rounder but they still managed to get him on day 3. I don't think these success stories happen without the developmental structure put in place by the current front office. I think there is some fair criticism of some of their scouting and decision making at the top of the draft, though I'm not sure how much worse their misses are than the average team.
  6. 2wins87
    There's the completely expected college pitcher pick now. A little surprised they didn't go for a more physical guy, but I do see a few things in his profile that seem to fit their type from past drafts. A FB that plays up despite not having great velocity, at least one very good secondary and good control. It's a good foundation to work with if they add some velocity, or maybe even if they don't.
  7. 2wins87
    Hasn't held up for a full College season, probably
  8. 2wins87
    Brandon Winokur, HS outfielder. I like it. Plenty of upside.
  9. 2wins87
    I'll just throw out Trent Caraway. From the same HS as Royce Lewis.
  10. 2wins87
    Maybe not changes that would make a huge difference individually or even collectively, but certainly reasonable changes that should help some. The other suggestion I would make would be giving Jeffers closer to 2/3 of the starts at catcher. The expectations were probably lower this year than last, but the results are somehow much more frustrating when the pitching is actually good.
  11. 2wins87
    I would love it if they could find another HS kid that is still signable with their third pick. It feels like they are probably more or less at slot after their first 3 picks, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they had a little extra saved up. Even a small discount for Jenkins could be several hundred thousand, with a slot value of 7.5 million. I think we might see one more bat before they get heavy into college pitchers.
  12. 2wins87
    The more I read the more I like the pick. The Schobel comp seems pretty apt, but it seems like Keaschall has shown a bit more of a knack for contact and might be a bit more physical overall so hopefully the upside is higher. It's easy to see how a model could rate him highly. While the knock is a lack of power, he got to plenty of power last year. I think I saw strong hands mentioned in more than one scouting report. And even if he stays as more of a pull power rather than all fields power that could play at target field. I like a pick who has been on the rise over the last year. It felt like almost a given that it would be a college bat after their first two picks. There were a couple guys left that I was a bit more familiar with, but it doesn't necessarily seem like Keaschall is obviously a lesser bat or lesser prospect.
  13. 2wins87
    I don't know what the park factors are like in the Pac 12 (and Arizona specifically), but he had a SLG% of .725 and HR/PA rate over 7% this year. Hit for some power with wood bats in the Cape last year too. Not someone who was on my radar, but it doesn't necessarily seem like he's without power, and it sounds like he could at least handle 2B or 3B, so not necessarily a bat only pick either.
  14. 2wins87
    With two HS guys I kind like Jack Hurley or Jake Gelof in the second round.
  15. 2wins87
    I'm guessing Jenkins could be a bit under. Probably wouldn't have gotten past the Royals but maybe wouldn't have gone 6th.
  16. 2wins87
    I like the upside play in this draft so far.
  17. 2wins87
    Yohandy Morales would be a good get on the college side. Still hoping for a HS SS here.
  18. 2wins87
    At this point it could be possible the Twins have the money to push him to them.
  19. 2wins87
    Since the Yankees didn't take him, I'll throw out Sammy Stafura as my guess for the next pick
  20. 2wins87
    That would be great. I'm still expecting him to go in the last few picks before the comp round
  21. 2wins87
    This is what I've been wanting them to do. There are a bunch of HS SS still on the board
  22. 2wins87
    Maybe the key to health is actually just getting a guy with a pre-existing issue. It's worked fine with Correa so far. It does kind of figure that they would end up with a guy that already comes with health questions, but I guess we didn't have to worry so much about them going against consensus.
  23. 2wins87
    I feel like I saw him around 10 in a mock at some point, but yeah probably a bit
  24. 2wins87
    Automated ball strike system. They are using it in all AAA parks for the first time this year. Run scoring is up from 5 R/G in 2022 to 5.6 R/G in the international league. Walks are also up from 4 BB/9 to 4.8. R/G is only 4.5 in the AL this year. I'm only pointing out that the run scoring environment is pretty extreme in AAA compared to the majors so you have to take the numbers there with a grain of salt, including some of the batting lines.
  25. 2wins87
    If the rumors are correct, then they legitimately have Gonzalez in their top 5. They could be wrong, but I think that's still different than just trying to get too cute. It's worth noting that most of those mocks that have them passing on Jenkins (or Clark) don't have the A's jumping all over him, so I don't think the consensus of a top five is nearly as strong among teams as it is in the public sphere. They may still be outliers on how much they like Gonzalez, so that is concerning. Maybe Gonzalez would have fallen to 13 otherwise, but they were still handed a couple extra million dollars to use in their draft pool, and they will use it. Their evaluations further down the draft board could be equally important. I'm going to withhold judge.ent until we see their whole draft take shape.
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