chpettit19

As much as people aren't going to like to hear it, his inability to hit for any meaningful power had the effect that should've been expected...he couldn't artificially prop up his OBP with walks because pitchers went right at him. His fantastic chase rate (17.1%) didn't mean anything because he faced a well above average percentage of pitches in the zone (52.7%). His inability to impact the baseball (1st percentile barrel%, 25th percentile avg exit velo, 28th percentile xSLG) gives him a really hard path to anything beyond a utility player. Still a useful player, but not the leadoff star many are hoping/expecting he becomes. The Twins weren't trying to turn him into Giancarlo Stanton in the minors like some like to act like they were. They were trying to turn him into Bo Bichette. He's going to need to hit the ball harder to give himself a real shot at being a quality everyday player. But having him for league minimum instead of someone like Margot for 4 million is a nice option.

Good for Miguel. I hope he continues to see success. His time was over here, but it's great to see him get healthy and get into what appears to be great shape and have some early success. Hope he continues to thrive in Cali.

Goin was a former member of the Twins front office when he made the last post on this thread. So you can take that for what you will. In this one he talks about making up lineups for Gardy back in 2013 as a member of the front office. Those are 2 quick ones for you, but I'm off to bed so don't want to look up more. Believe what you want from those posts. The FO and the manager/coaches are in contact everyday and work on the strategy for that day's and future games together.

It's a thread about blame for the performance of this team. Many people on these threads have said they wanted to play guys from the system over the bad vets. The article talks about blaming the FO. Many of us discussed the problems we have with the choice of player types this FO seaks which is tied to prospects in many ways. When some of us blame the FO it's because we feel they've provided less than adequate prospects to provide support for a 7-13 team. There have already been multiple big league debuts to take place on this team, and Lee is a constant talk about his injury also being to blame. It was an appropriate conversation that we ended on our own so your policing isn't needed.

Derek Falvey meets with Rocco (on the phone or in person) every single day. We've actually had members of the FO on this site confirm that. I don't know why people question that. They discuss plans and strategy for the roster, etc. every single day. The FO gets blame for the poor performing roster (from me, you don't have to agree) because they are the ones who brought in the bad players. Kyle Farmer being bad in his first 12 ABs against lefties is strange, but him being terrible as an everyday player isn't. You acknowledged Santana. Margot struggling against righties isn't weird. Sophomores having struggles as they have to adapt to a league that now has a plan for their weaknesses isn't weird. Vazquez being a bad hitter isn't weird. Buxton being streaky isn't weird. None of it is weird. It's small sample size so a couple outs vs hits here and there makes them "50% of their career norms." That's the nature of small sample sizes. I never claimed the FO is why the players are playing poorly. I just pointed out that the FO talks to the coaches everyday so the idea that they have no say in strategy is wrong. And I said I blame the FO because they're the ones who put together a flawed roster that is seeing struggles numerous people on this site said all offseason they'd struggle with. Short side platoon bats struggling as everyday players shouldn't surprise people. But apparently it does.

19- Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot 20- Bobby Miller, Clayton Beeter, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso 21- Emmet Sheehan 22- Dalton Rushing, (every team has several pitching prospects from the 2022 draft) 23- Every team's 2023 draft is potentially franchise altering since none of them have actually played enough to know what they are There's a quick look at the Dodgers who have been succeeding on the field and in the draft without drafting in the top 5. I don't have time to do all the systems. If Povich and Festa types are all you're looking for then the Twins aren't standing out at all. I love Canterino, but he's thrown 85 professional innings and he's now 26 years old. If all you need is top 100 guys to get bonus points here (Petty, Lee, Povich isn't even there, but he's doing well right now, Festa isn't a top 100 guy yet you want him to get credit) then there are a lot of systems beating the Twins. Which is kind of my point. Orioles, Cubs, padres, Brewers, Tigers, Rays, Red Sox, Nationals, Rangers, Dodgers, etc. have better systems than the Twins. I'm not saying the Twins are terrible. They're an average team with an average system. I want more than average. But we're clearly not going to see eye to eye here so best we move on and let others discuss the topic at hand instead of us going back and forth with no end.

David Festa has 28 innings in 8 AAA starts. 15.2 in 5 starts this year. And 21 walks in those 28 innings, with 12 walks in his 15.2 this year. You can find that guy, and the entire list of other "eh" pitching prospects in just about every organization. You follow these guys so you're excited about the positives and what you hope they become. If you went and looked at every MLB organization as deeply as you look at the Twins you could find all the same guys. Then, in the really good systems, you'd find those guys plus guys with Canterino and Priellip's talent that aren't hurt and are actually dominating the minors. I do love Jenkins, though. Think he's going to be amazing. Lee is exciting as well, and I really hope Rodriguez and Gonzalez and find continued success as they move up and pitchers are better able to attack their rather extreme approaches at the plate. The Twins do not have an exceptional system. They have an average one. Top 3 draft records?! The Orioles are number 1 and it isn't even close. You're more than welcome to show your work on that claim, though. Top 3 to 5 drafts for 4 of the last 5 years yet aren't a top ranked system? Going to have to agree to disagree on that one. Be excited. Call me glass half empty. It's all good. We just disagree on the success they've had and where this organization sits. Reasonable minds can disagree. No hard feelings here. I'm glad you're excited about this team and organization. I just don't see it the same way.

Why do you say it's incorrect to believe the FO is involved with the plans and day to day on field stuff? They have daily, sometimes multiple times a day, meetings with Rocco. They talk to the coaches/managers every single day of the season. They built the coaching staff based around guys they felt could implement certain strategies. They brought in players with certain skill sets. Why would it be incorrect to believe they are involved in the day to day plans? They're not sending guys to AAA and calling guys up from AAA based on hunches and guesses of what the on field staff are doing with guys. Falvine is incredibly involved in the day to day plans of this team.

My point is they haven't had success over the last 8 years. I'm not trying to take their success away, because they don't really have much to take away. They've won the division 3 times. That's not the kind of success I want. I'm glad you're happy with it. No matter what division it is. I want more than 3 division titles in 8 years (7 to this point). I do follow baseball. And because I follow baseball I know that the "interesting" talent in the minors is average at best as a system as a whole. There isn't a pitcher in sight that looks like a front of the rotation arm. No, Raya and Festa don't fit that description because neither of them are allowed to even throw 70 pitches or 4+ innings. You want to see what "interesting" talent in an organization looks like? Go look at the Dodgers and Orioles. The Twins are an average organization getting average results. They aren't the worst, and firing the FO could absolutely lead to far worse results. But they aren't doing anything above average. I'm not telling you not to be happy with them. You're more than welcome to enjoy 3 division titles in 7 years and carry hope that this team is going to win it for a 4th time in 8 years. I want more than that. You don't have to want more than that. But, believe me, I follow baseball. And, yes, I do have 20 years of pent up frustration because I want the Twins to actually be good and actually have a chance at a championship. They haven't been anywhere near that for 30 years. I understand people have different goals, and that's totally fine. But I don't see a lot of empirical evidence that this organization is actually doing anything that's getting them anywhere near a championship.

Correa played 135 games last year. This is a really weird argument for you to be making. He played almost the entire season injured, missed 27 games on top of that, which is actually better than his career norm, and you want to argue you shouldn't expect him to get hurt? He played 136 games the year before for the Twins. Those are his 3rd and 4th BEST seasons in terms of games played in 8 years (taking out 2020). That means 4 of his 8 years he's actually been below that. All you have to do is look at Buxton and Lewis' careers to see they're injury prone. It's not worth debating. Incredibly bold stance you're taking. I don't have to admit there's a better than fair probability they get to the playoffs. I don't believe that, and didn't even believe their odds were as good as many claimed before the season started. Because I don't think Cleveland, KC, and Detroit are as bad as they were last year and the Twins are worse. I've been saying this for months now. The Central is not just going to be handed to the Twins. So, no, I don't have to admit they have a better than fair probability to get to the playoffs. They have real work to do. They lost 18 straight playoff games. I'm sorry if you don't think "smashed" is the appropriate term for setting the all time North American major sports league record for playoff losing streaks. Call it whatever you want, I guess. They've been here for 8 years. Playing in the worst division in baseball and have won it 3 times. How long do we have to wait for this long term success to show up? They aren't still winning. They won last year. They're losing this year. They lost in 2022. They lost in 2021. I'm not telling you to be unhappy with it. But I'm going to need more than 3 of 8 division titles in a horrible division before I buy into them fostering any sort of success at all.

You shouldn't expect Royce Lewis to get injured? Even after he came back healthy from the knee last year he went on the IL 2 more times. He's played 71 games in the majors because he can't stay on the field. Correa failed 2 physicals before he signed here and spent all of last year hurt. He hasn't played 150 games in a season since 2016, although he got close in 2021. He averages 123 games a year. They should absolutely expect both of those players to get injured. Their entire major league careers say they should expect that. I agree, bad players shouldn't be expected to be better than bad. That's my problem with their strategy. They should absolutely expect Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, and Lewis to get hurt. They all have constantly (to differing degrees). When Buxton inevitably gets hurt and Margot is playing an everyday role they can't be shocked that Margot isn't good enough for that. Santana has been playing an everyday role since opening day when anyone who's looked at the last few years of his career should've known he wasn't good enough for that. If you're going to build your team around those 4 guys you can't sign short side platoon guys and then blame poor play on guys who you should've know would have to play bigger roles doing poorly in the bigger roles you knew they weren't cutout for but would have to play. It's a bad strategy. Are there any other teams in the division over .500 at the end of the year? Did they get smashed in the playoffs? Winning a terrible division shouldn't be the goal. If this team wins 90 games and makes real noise in the playoffs I'll be more than happy to eat crow and say their strategy worked. What are you going to say when they don't win a terrible division for the 5th time in 8 years?

There are not a lot of steal signs in major league baseball. It's green light or red light for players. It's far more player choice than managers putting on steal signs. There may be a situation here or there that the manager will tell a guy to go, but it's much more just guys either being allowed to steal when they want or being told to keep themselves at the base and quit thinking they're fast.

My disagreement is that injuries should be expected. Especially when you have Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, and Correa as 4 of your top 5 players. Backing them up with short side platoon bats and then being surprised those short side platoon bats can't hit righties when the guys who always get injured (or failed 2 physicals) get injured is bad planning, not bad luck. The Twins don't really have "backups." They play everyone on a pretty constant rotation. So I don't buy the "they're backups" argument either. They aren't backups. They're guys the FO hopes only play in ideal situations. But that's not a realistic plan because injuries are going to happen. The FO has a flawed approach that is predictably killing the team.

I can certainly understand the approach and their desire to have "depth." I just don't think Santana types are depth. They couldn't have expected him to be a league average player. Especially against righties. And their idea of depth is usually short side platoon bats (Margot, Farmer, Santana this year) which isn't depth because if they need to be put into everyday roles they aren't any good because they can't hit against 75% of the league. And that's what we're watching now. Guys who's only chance at success is to be placed in ideal situations against a small percent of the league and to be shielded against the rest of the league. Any sort of injury situation puts you in a spot of no longer being able to shield your "depth." If you have to shield someone from 75% of the league they aren't really depth. Definitely not 4-6+ million per player depth.

I read that article. The Twins (Falvey in particular) get praise for the culture they've developed. Guys like working for the Twins and playing for the Twins. It doesn't say a single thing about building good teams. In fact the only part about actual performance is "the greater success may be fostering an environment that generates good cheer and the occasional American League Central crown." That's not a ringing endorsement of the FO team building.

FO Owners Bats/Players That's the end of my list. Front office was hamstrung by ownership, but they didn't have to choose multiple spare parts over a superior player and youngsters. If this were an anomaly in their approach I'd put ownership first, but this FO believes in mediocre to flat out bad vets who are short side platoon bats and trying to mix and match perfectly. This is their strategy, and I think it's a bad one. No matter how much money they have to play with. Ownership set their employees out to run perhaps the most tone-deaf, out-of-touch-with-your-customer-base business/PR plan possible this offseason. It was horrendous and they're getting what they deserve from performance and attendance early. The fans aren't, but ownership is. That doesn't make me feel any better, and the Pohlads don't care. Their decisions hamstrung the FO and made them take worse players to fill out their roster with. They get blame, but the FO gets more because it's still their bad strategy that ownership isn't forcing on them. The players need to play, though. I would like to put them at the top, but it's not Margot, Farmer, and Santana's fault that they aren't good at certain things. Should Farmer be better against lefties? Yes. But should he be a better everyday guy? No. Same with Margot and Santana. Injuries were always going to happen and the FO put together a roster that was always going to struggle to fill in for those injuries. These players have known limitations and they're being exploited to destroy their results. When you build a team full of guys who struggle with off-speed pitches, or facing guys who throw with a certain hand, you can't then blame the players for struggling with off-speed pitches or facing guys who throw with a certain hand. You get what you paid for. I don't have the coaches on there because we're talking about a group of uber confident individuals with decades of experience and training. If something isn't working for them as a whole they should be the full grown adults they are and say "these coaches aren't good, get us new ones." The reports coming out from Rocco are still that the players like and trust the coaches. That could be complete BS, but I don't think it is. The players all have outside hitting instructors as well. Are we going to blame them for Farmer being bad against righties or Santana being bad at age 38? The players held that meeting last year and got things figured out. If they were truly so upset with the coaches that they didn't trust them at all and Popkins et al were no longer being used or trusted the FO is either completely out of touch with the clubhouse or are literally the most stubborn people in the history of humans. I know some of you actually think that's the answer, but I find that to be a ridiculous stance. Are we to believe that the FO is willing to put their jobs on the line by keeping coaches around that the players don't like or trust? Self-preservation would win out over stubborn refusal to fire an employee. That's just human nature. Kirilloff is a good hitter, and is hitting well. Jeffers is a good hitter and is hitting well. Farmer is a terrible hitter against righties and is hitting terribly against righties. Santana is a 38-year old defensive specialist hitting like a 38-year old defensive specialist. Kepler is an extreme streaky, up and down hitter hitting like an extreme streaky, up and down hitter. Larnach is a small sample size good hitter with consistency questions and is hitting well in a small sample size. Julien is a sophomore with big swing and miss struggles but great patience and good power who's swinging and missing too much while being patient and hitting for power. Buxton is an extremely streaky hitter with super high highs and super low lows who's hitting like an extremely streaky hitter with super high highs and super low lows. Correa is a good hitter who was hitting well before he got hurt. Lewis is a good hitter who hit well before getting hurt. Wallner is a slugger with swing and miss issues and easily identified holes in his swing that was swinging and missing while pitchers attacked the holes in his swing. Castro is a career below average hitter who's hitting like a career below average hitter. Vazquez is a defensive specialist catcher hitting like a defensive specialist catcher. Martin is a patient hitter with good contact skills hitting like a patient hitter with good contact skills. Miranda is an impatient hitter with good contact skills hitting like an impatient hitter with good contact skills. Camargo is an impatient hitter with bad contact skills who hit like an impatient hitter with bad contact skills while he was here. I think that's everyone. This isn't a super talented lineup without Correa and Lewis and when Kepler and Buxton are in a valley instead of on a peak. Small sample sizes have lead to some really ugly numbers, but, for the most part, these guys are hitting like the guys they are. Mostly very flawed hitters who are having their flaws exposed. That's why I blame the FO for putting them together and not the coaches for not magically turning Farmer into a guy who can hit righties or Buxton into a guy who isn't streaky. This is who the hitters are. We've just seen the poor end of the spectrum for most of them at the same time. And the schedule gets 0 blame. If they were playing well and losing close, well played games I would give it .01% blame. But they aren't playing well. The schedule gets no blame at all. They're pro baseball players, don't complain about the other guy being a pro baseball player, too.

I don't know many fans at all who were happy with the idea of him being an everyday guy. But the Twins pretty early on stated the guy with the best glove would play 1B the most and there was no doubt at all that that was Santana. And they had an open DH spot so it was pretty universally expected after that comment that Santana was the everyday 1B and Kirilloff the primary DH against righties. And I know very few people who liked that idea. Mostly just people who significantly overweigh defense at 1B.

My stance is that if you want to rotate through young players with the hope of them being any better than the Gallo, Solano, Farmer, Santana, Taylor, Margot, Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker types the Twins go with then you need to believe it's possible to have legit young players in AAA. And/or AA. Because it can actually get worse than Santana. I'm not excited about Santana either. Hated the signing. Hate their plan to have the bench be all short side platoon bats. I know we agree there. I just think it's possible to actually have legit talent in the minors that you aren't starting on your opening day roster. It's how the Dodgers, Braves, Rays, Cleveland, Houston, etc. maintain success as teams, or at least as a pitching staff in Cleveland's case. Constant, or close to it, development of prospects to provide real depth is possible. Those teams do it. My argument is that the Twins aren't producing actual prospect talent like that. And if you aren't developing that prospect talent you have to bring in players like the ones I listed above. Because, as bad as those guys are, there's worse. Young guys being young doesn't automatically mean they have a chance at being better than those guys. Most prospects fail. It's hard to continually produce talent from your system. It's why so many teams go through winning cycles. They get a wave of prospects that work out, but then can't back it up with more so go in the tank. Even the Yankees are going through that right now. I just think if you're going to push for the strategy you push for (and one I agree with) you have to believe teams can have solid numbers of legit prospects sitting in AAA year after year. It's the only way that strategy works.

That wasn't what you asked for. You said "Show me the teams with AAA pitchers that you expect to be better than back end. That's all I'm asking. There aren't many, any, when I look." There are teams with guys in AAA that many expect to be better than back end starters. How do you expect the Twins to pull off your "rotate young guys instead of paying for mediocre vets" plan? You seem to have contradicting views. On 1 hand you say "young guys have higher potential so rotate them between AAA and the majors to find the ones who can stick" while on the other you say "nobody should expect teams to have guys in AAA that are any better than backend guys." You can't have both. Your strategy doesn't work if you don't think teams could/should hold good prospects in AAA. Where are they getting the young guys to rotate through? Your strategy then comes down to hoping no name prospects are suddenly legit MLB talent. And in your idea, not just legit talent, but better than just mediocre talent. The entire history of the game says that's not even remotely realistic. I'm legitimately curious as to how you think teams can pull off your strategy when you don't think they can get more than a single AAA starter at a time to be excited about.

5 years ago is skipping a lot of time to make this point. In 2020 he got 7 mil. In 2021 he got 7.25 mil. In 2022 he got 10.5. In 2023 he got 6.6 mil. He was a fulltime player in all of those seasons. Looking at his pay from 5 years ago and saying he got a significant pay cut and tying that to a significant decrease in role while ignoring the fact that he took only a 1.5 mil pay cut from just last season when he was a fulltime player for 2 teams is awfully skewed data. He hasn't been making big money for quite some time but he's still been a fulltime player.

Paul Skenes, Ricky Tiedemann, Mick Abel, AJ Smith-Shawver, Connor Phillips, Nick Frasso, Carson Whisenhunt, Max Meyer (was on opening day roster then sent down). All top 100 type arms in AAA. That's the Pirates, Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, and Marlins. That's 5 or 6 teams who were/are legitimately trying to make the playoffs this year that all have pitchers that are expected to be better than back end in AAA. It's smart team building.

I'm not saying it's right, wrong, or somewhere in between. But it's an often used strategy that is by no means crazy or outlandish. Elite prospects are kept in AAA to start seasons all the time. Like literally every single season. The O's did it with Jackson Holliday and it's currently looking like they should've kept him there for longer. You're going to be holding your breath a long time if you're expecting teams to start carrying all their top prospects on opening day. Nobody is going to do that.

The vast majority of prospects fail. That's not the argument. Of course most teams fail at this, because most prospects fail. The expectation is what I'm talking about. SWR didn't come into this season as someone people around here believed in. Festa has some fans for sure. Who else do the Twins have at AAA? Dobnak? Boushley? Canterino? Headrick? I think Festa is the only guy that people around here had expectations of more than #5 starter for. And the people with those expectations were mostly saying mid-season for his debut. And I'm not one of those people with that expectation for him. Festa isn't a top 100 prospect, but the offseason leads to many fans staring at the possibilities and convincing themselves these young guys are better than they are and the future of the Twins is as bright as the sun. Festa isn't a great bet at being more than a back end starter. So the Twins have 0 guys in AAA who I expect to be more than a #5. I realistically expect them to have more than 0. Especially by year 8. You can disagree with my expectations for Festa, but I don't see a single starter in AAA with more than back end starter potential (Canterino unfortunately can't stay healthy so he's now a pen arm to me, which I hate to say). My stance is that there are a lot of teams with better pitchers in AAA than the Twins have.

I believe the player needs to remain in the minors for 20 days to lose the option. I don't know how many days he was down, but it's got to be pretty close to that.

What teams have prospects they're excited about in AAA but aren't throwing into their opening day rotation? I'd wager a lot of them. Well, at least a lot of the good ones. It's actually the basis of your entire strategy of relying on young guys. You have to have young guys in AAA to rely on. Good ones. Not just system filler guys. If you're going to do your "rotate through young guys instead of mediocre, or bad, vets" strategy you have to have young guys worth rotating through. I agree with the strategy in general. I just don't think the Twins have done a good job of loading AAA, or AA, with guys you can actually do it with. The average minor leaguer isn't worthy of being part of your strategy if you're expecting to be a good team. Because most won't be any good at all. They'd perform like Varland. They aren't all just automatically high ceiling guys. Pittsburgh isn't doing anything that weird with Skene. I assume that's what you're referring to. They're going to get an extra year out of him while they build his innings over the first 1/4 or 1/2 the season. It's not some outrageous plan. They had Jared Jones in their opening day rotation and kept depth in AAA to rotate through if he struggled. It's what you're asking the Twins to do. If you don't think it's reasonable to stash talent in AAA at the start of the year you need to change your desired "rotate through young guys with options" strategy because it won't work with just any random minor leaguer. "Sitting on good pitchers in AAA" is literally the basis of every good team's team building strategy. The Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Cleveland have been doing it with pitchers for years. It's why they're good. It's what the minors are for. My stance is that the Twins don't have good enough prospects for this plan right now. SWR came into the year going the wrong way as a prospect. Festa was a good, not great prospect with 3 AAA starts. My argument is that 8 years in they shouldn't be having to rely on those types of prospects.