chpettit19

Yeah, I have no idea who's available beyond Nolan Arenado, but that's not a huge win as he's expensive and on the decline (even though I still love his glove and watching him play). Pulling top-10 global prospects who are MLB ready from teams trying to contend is a nearly impossible task. If Jenkins debuts at the end of this year and is set to be on the opening day roster for the Twins in 2026 what would it cost to get him? It'd be a pretty crazy price tag for the Twins to give up 6 years of an MLB ready Jenkins. I think the same is true for Lawler. I just don't think there's any way you're actually getting him unless you're throwing them an absolutely unreal package.

Every trade needs considering. And it's always possible they can pull off the multi-deal magic it'd take to make an improvement on the 2025 team. Kike isn't someone I'm interested in as a Castro replacement. Castro is no star with the bat, but he's at least average to slightly above. Kike is a below average bat and making this offense worse is not something I'd be a fan of. Iglesias is an interesting case. He's help defensively, but last year was a massive outlier season for him. He didn't even play in the bigs the year before because he was just a league average bat in AAA and couldn't get a job. He's been a below average bat the rest of his career outside of 2020 and 2013. If I felt better about him being at least as good as Castro that'd be a decent enough deal, but he'll likely cost in the 5-6 mil range so you aren't really saving much, if any, money. Interesting possibility, though. I like that they're looking for moves. I'm not saying they shouldn't or there's no way to make it all work. It's just a big task and 1 year of Cease is going to be expensive so you better have the rest of your team straightened out if you're going to give up what it costs to get him.

I was surprised to see Cease as the name the Twins are looking at. He'd help for sure. Has Cy Young upside. But, to me, they'd be building the Seattle Mariners of the Midwest with that kind of deal. They missed the playoffs because they couldn't score. The Twins biggest question mark, to me, is their offense (the defense is bad so not a question mark). We saw what happened at the end of last year when the team couldn't score. The pitchers had to be darn near perfect to win and they couldn't get it done because that isn't realistic. So Cease is a weird target to me even though adding a potential Cy Young winner is always good. If you're going to give up what it costs to get him I'd prefer they give it up to get a bat instead. I'd love Lawler, but I don't think there's any reasonable offer that would get them to give him up. And I'm not a big fan of the Twins making unreasonable offers for guys.

I think the "self-imposed" was more than a creation of the writers. Multiple beat writers all mentioned the same thing from sources. The FO and owners said they weren't going to reduce payroll but were all pretty clear they weren't really adding either. The 130 number looks like it was a little off, but adding Cease would push the payroll over 140 and there's been nothing from anyone connected to the Twins, including FO and ownership quotes, to suggest they are willing to increase the payroll like that. Obviously moving some other contracts would clear money as well, but I don't see any reason to believe the Twins are open to adding another 8 million or more to the payroll. If they're willing to get up to 145ish then I'm even more annoyed by the absolute no show of an offseason so far. If they're moving Castro for a non-MLB player beyond Cease I have no interest in that. You know I'm all for starting Emma on the opening day roster and I think Keaschall is going to be better than Lee, but trading for Cease is a "win in 2025" move. They're already a bat short (why I'd start with Emma on the roster) and trading Castro would make them 2 bats short of a starting lineup. Better have a plan to fill those spots before bringing in Cease for a big swing at 2025. To me, it just feels like the cost for 1 year of Cease is going to be too high if you're also trying to move Vazquez in the deal. You have to make up for Vazquez's negative value due to his contract then you have to pay the cost to get Cease on top of that. It can be done, but if it also costs them Castro in that deal or a separate one that's simply a money dump deal for a prospect I think the 2025 Twins are no better but now they've shipped out multiple prospects and/or a young MLB pitcher. They may have a few rabbits to pull out of a few hats, but it's going to take multiple deals to make everything fit and that's a hard trick to pull off.

He said "as of right now, I think he's more likely than not to play third base for us. But is there a chance he plays some second base? I think there's a chance." After talking about the makeup of the rest of the roster being uncertain and playing a role in where he plays. He's not sure because he doesn't know what the roster will look like. Royce can get all the instruction and work he wants at 2B. It's the offseason, he has time to work at however many positions he wants. He's got nothing but time to work at both spots. If he can't work at both 3B and 2B during the offseason there's much bigger problems we need to worry about with him. Did you read the article I linked? He's good with things now. He started working at 2B in the offseason on his own. He's happy to play anywhere on the dirt. He has been sending videos of his workouts to the Twins. Rocco was determined during the season because during the season they had Miranda to play 3B and nobody to play 2B. The situation was different. The makeup of the team was different. And the need was immediate. The goal is always to get your best players on the field, Royce at 2B made the pieces fit best at that time. Now the situation may be different. He's being as committal as he can be. If the roster changes who plays where can change. If the Twins trade for Nolan Arenado tomorrow Royce Lewis is no longer playing 3B for the MN Twins this season. If they sign Alex Bregman he's no longer playing 3B for the MN Twins this season. If they sign Pete Alonso Royce is moving to 2B so Miranda can play 3B because that gives them their best players on the field. Those are obviously very unlikely situations and it's why Rocco said "as of right now, I think he's more likely than not to play third base for us." But if the roster changes Royce's role can change. Just like Mookie Betts role changes. Or like Tatis Jr's role changed. Or Oneil Cruz's role changed. Or Aaron Judge's role changes. Or Rafael Devers role may change. Or Gunnar Henderson's role changed. This is normal operating procedure for any MLB team, not some crazy failure of Rocco and the Twins. If the Yankees can bounce Aaron Judge back and forth to different outfield spots and the Dodgers can ask Mookie to play both outfield and infield as needed, I think it's ok if the Twins ask Royce Lewis to work at more than 1 infield spot during the offseason.

I don't think San Diego would do that. That's the challenge of trading Vazquez. This whole scenario is pretty complicated unless the FO has the green light to add some significant money. The Padres are trying to cut payroll so the Twins likely have to pay all of Cease's 13+ mil plus they'd have to eat a large chunk of Vazquez's deal. The Padres would, in my opinion, see Festa as balancing out the deal with no extra prospect being needed on their side. Let's say the Twins have to eat 5 mil of the Vazquez deal which is what most people seem to think, they're adding 8 mil to the payroll on this deal which would push them over 140 mil. Do they have that in the budget? Or would Paddack and/or Castro deals also be required? A lot of moving pieces here. I'd be a much bigger fan of a deal including Festa if they were also getting a prospect arm back, but I don't think that'd be likely. The comp pick is part of why I don't think it's likely they'd add another prospect. Will be interesting to see if they can get something done and what the deal looks like. I just don't think this team is 1 starter away from a serious WS run and would prefer to keep the MLB ready arm they have than have a comp pick after the year.

Cease would be a nice add, but giving up anything of real value for 1 year of Cease with all the question marks on this offense is not something I'd be interested in at all. Seattle showed last year that being able to pitch really well isn't an automatic ticket to the postseason if your offense can't score. No way I'd trade 6 years of Festa for 1 year of Cease.

Zoll, Falvey, and Rocco have all given indications that they're still hunting hard on the trade market. There's reports out today from Dan Hayes about a trade with the Padres that'd include Vazquez (and a bunch of money) shipping out with Dylan Cease a possibility coming back this way. Other pieces included, I'd assume. They say nothing is imminent at all, but there's been continued talks and both sides plan to keep talking. Obviously nothing is for sure that they make any more moves, but it does sound like they're looking. For what that's worth. Lewis has the stronger arm so him at 3B and Lee at 2B would make sense to me. Lee has a lot of proving to do still, though. Royce sounds like he's pretty comfortable in all the spots now after putting in more work over the offseason. Hopefully that's the case and they're able to fit the pieces in as best they can with everyone being comfortable in their spots.

Lewis, and his agent, have been pretty clear he has no desire or willingness to play the outfield. He says he's open to playing anywhere on the dirt. He's not going to LF. Even though I like the idea, he's been pretty clear he isn't willing to do it.

01/22/25 - Inside Twins featuring Rocco Baldelli | Inside Twins... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM Inside Twins returns with Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli. Inside Twins airs every Wednesday until Spring Training. Tune In for news, stories and we'll... Go to the 12:40 point in this interview from yesterday. If that's not a reasonable answer to you I don't know what to tell you. If the Twins bring in a 3B Royce will play 2B. If they don't he's their 3B with the potential to pop over to 2B here and there like he's been working on all offseason. You not being aware of Rocco's comments doesn't make him "quiet and unsure." He's been pretty open about the plan with Lewis. But how the roster is constructed effects who plays where. If they bring in a 1B then Miranda is going to get some time at 3B with Royce at 2B because that's the obvious alignment. If they bring in a new LFer who fields really well Larnach is going to the DH spot because that's the obvious alignment. If they bring in a 2B then Royce will be a 3B because that's the obvious alignment. The roster isn't set so Rocco isn't giving definitive answers because he doesn't know what his options are yet.

And, luckily for the Twins, MLB instituted a designated hitter position in the AL in 1973 so the Twins were able to squeeze all 3 guys into the lineup if they wanted to. You know, when Wallner wasn't demoted or Kepler or Larnach weren't hurt.

I don't think they expected .275 and 20, I think they expected him to be average, though. There's downside risk with every player, but if the Twins had known he'd OPS+ 60 for them for the entire contract they never would've brought him in. They would've offered him 1 year, 3-5 mil and said "take it or leave it." Everyone knew the contract was an overpay from the beginning, but nobody expected this. He's ok behind the plate and a liability with the bat. He's not a star defender, he's just a solid one. Sure, maybe he has a season where he does a drastic turn around at the plate in his mid-30s, but it isn't likely. There's really not much the Twins can do at this point. Nobody is taking that deal and with all the money they'd have to eat to trade him they couldn't afford much in terms of an upgrade. I think Elias Diaz is an upgrade and they could get him for that 3-5 mil they should've paid Vazquez, but he's not a significant upgrade and I don't expect them to make that swap. At this point all they can do is hope Vazquez doesn't get worse. Behind or at the plate. If everyone else stays healthy and does their job he's not going to kill the team, but he isn't helping it either.

Dubon is not a plus at the plate. He's never had an OPS+ over 100, with 2020 being the only "season" he even reached 100. Since then he's gone 76, 61, 97, 88. Trading Larnach for a poor man's Willi Castro doesn't seem like a good trade. Jake Meyers is also a below average bat who isn't especially good against lefties. He would improve the defense compared to what Margot did, but trading Larnach for a platoon righty feels like a bad strategy considering 75% of pitchers are right handed. Confused why you would suggest these 2 bats and then follow it up with the Braves being hard to match with because all their bats would be a downgrade. Dubon and Meyers are both massive downgrades with the bat. Nick Allen is not an MLB quality player. He's a worse hitter than Vazquez. White had a nice 35 games last year, but in his 4 tastes before that hasn't shown to be an MLB quality player either. It's why 2 other playoff teams didn't give him any meaningful run in 5 years. As for trading Larnach in general, if it upgrades the team by all means move him. But there's no reason to trade him just because he hits left handed. This is the problem with the Twins overuse of the platoon. You're suggesting making the team worse simply because they have 2 guys who both can hit but stand in the "wrong" batters box. Even though 75% of the pitchers in baseball are right handed. Nonsense.

Vazquez has the 5th highest AAV for a catcher in baseball. He's not paid 10 mil for his defense, he's paid 10 mil because they thought he could hit at an at least league average level. Defense only catchers don't get paid 10 mil. They get half that at most. In 2019 he actually did hit .275 with 20 HRs. He hit .274 in 2022 before the Twins signed him. The Twins did not pay him 10 mil expecting him to hit an empty .220. Not at all. I don't know where people get the idea that defense only catchers are expensive. They aren't. You can get them for 4 mil or less. Nobody pays 10 mil for a defense only catcher on purpose. Nobody.

Totally agree. And I don't think his defense comes anywhere close to making up for being a complete black hole in the lineup. I'm not at all a Vazquez defender.

I don't like either WAR when it comes to catchers. I'm not arguing that Vazquez is good or that losing him would hurt the Twins. I've been wanting them to replace him for 2 years. Just pointing out that there is WAR that likes him. I don't find WAR to be that valuable for catchers at all because we don't have an effective way to measure their defensive value.

Totally agree. Nearly every defensive stat these days still has yearly variation. Very few are "sticky" stats. If a catcher's intangibles aren't leading to better results on the field, what good are they? Not to mention CERA isn't the only stat in that line that Jeffers beat him at. He beat him at basically everything. Both years. The Twins pitchers have performed better with Jeffers behind the plate for 2 straight years in nearly a 50/50 split of catching starts. They have better K/W ratios, BA, OBP, and SLG (except the first year when hitters slugged slightly better with Jeffers behind the plate).

To be fair, his fWAR was positive both years.

Cal Ripken Jr is a minority owner of the Orioles. I think it's kind of fun, but nothing all that impactful. Gets the fans excited right away, which the Twins very much need, so I can see the appeal. As long as their stance on things is the same as Cal's in that they're just a sounding board for the FO if the FO wants it.

I don't know if it's the "most pivotal point in Twins history," but it's certainly a very big moment. Any ownership change is. It's also a pivot point for the Twins roster. Decisions need to be made on the direction of this team. I doubt the new ownership comes in and clears house. If it's the Ishbia brothers, then their recent history with the Suns would show that they don't fire people at the jump just to get "their own people" in there. They likely don't have "their own people." But maybe their partial ownership of the White Sox has given them relationships throughout the league and they have someone in mind. I'd doubt it, though. If they do come in and fire everyone straight away I'm going to be pretty worried as the smarter thing is to take the season to assess the organization you just acquired instead of just moving on from vital pieces without an inside look at things. Get to know your new team and the league and make an educated decision on Falvey and his team and how they fit into your vision. I'd expect Falvey to be replaced at the top of the business side pretty quickly, but not the baseball side. On the field the Twins have been in a bit of a holding pattern on a number of players for a few years now. Decisions need to be made. Maybe by the trade deadline. Is Larnach part of your future? What's your catching plan? Is Miranda part of the future? Wallner? Julien? Are Ryan, Ober, and Lopez all going to play out their contracts here or is it better to cash out on one of them as they approach free agency? Can you afford Correa with whatever budget you're going to set? Is Lewis worthy of a cornerstone spot or is he Buxton 2.0 who'll always need a "backup" to fill-in for half the season? Each of these questions (and more I didn't list) have impact on other decisions outside of the direct question. So, I fully agree that it's a very important point in Twins history. And it'd be ideal if new owners can be in place early in the season to start their assessment and future planning. Exciting times off the field for the Twins and hopefully the team can make it fun on the field, too.

I'll say that the new distribution situation may be a wild card that shakes things up. Manfred has says he wants to get as many teams as possible under the MLB umbrella like the Twins now are. But the large market teams are never going to do that if they don't have to. And the league shouldn't want them to unless they can replace the massive revenues those teams drive with their media deals. If the league can't find a way to replace the 50ish mil the Twins used to bring in from TV and they're instead happy to bring in 5 mil the smaller market teams may actually come together and try to force some change as their pocketbooks would start taking a hit at that point. And that'll actually get their attention. Even though it should've years ago when anyone paying attention saw this coming. Sometimes the uber rich get too much credit for their intelligence. Making loads of money in one business doesn't automatically make you good at owning a team or good at making money in a different business field.

There are a lot of rules on who pays what and who gets what from revenue sharing. The As have their own set of rules even. It's actually lead to them spending some this offseason so they can hit their needed numbers to receive their chunk of revenue sharing. But then there's also loose enough language that some teams just pocket their revenue sharing, or at least aren't spending it on the MLB roster. The problem, in my eyes, is the different goals of ownerships. The Yankees want to win, but not like they did under George. They're a good example of new generations of ownership changing things. I feel pretty strongly that George wouldn't have lost out on both Shohei and Soto in back to back offseasons. Budgets would've been tossed out the window and he would've signed one of them. Hal isn't the super fan his dad was (this is all my outside opinion, obviously). He cares more about balancing budgets and the numbers. George just wanted to win. The Dodgers want to win. They hired a top 3 FO exec from a small market team to improve their processes and then threw crazy money behind Friedman that the Rays never could. I think every owner wants to win, but some just want to win because they know more fans show up then and they make more money. Others (Cohen or the late Peter Siedler, for example) want to win because they want to win. Mike Ilitch is a bit like Siedler in that they threw budgets out the window when they were running out of time and wanted to see a championship before they passed. So, in my opinion, many of the owners don't care that the Dodgers are doing what they're doing. They still get their checks. And the more the Dodgers spend the more they have to pay the other teams. The concern many of us have had for a while is the shortsightedness of this. I don't know if Manfred sees things clearer and simply can't convince owners and the PA of the problems or if he's just happy collecting his checks, too. The MLBPA also doesn't care. They weirdly (to me) keep voting for CBAs that pay a select few crazy amounts of money while the vast majority of them get left behind, or even pushed out earlier because the star contracts force teams to go to league minimum guys more and more which pushes out the mid-level vets. That was a whole lot of typing when really it's a very simple situation: The fans don't have a voice in the room and both the MLBPA and the owners just want as much money as they can get right now. Future be damned.

And his bWAR has been below 0 in both of his seasons with the Twins. And was below 0 in his short stint with the Astros the season before when his bat completely disappeared for them. If he were a "full-time" catcher his bWAR would likely be even lower and put him alongside a bunch of guys who signed minor league deals this offseason.

A trade is always a possibility. I don't think it'll happen, though. And it's because the other team could just go sign Diaz or McCann or Grandal or Gomes or Maile. I think the Twins would have to eat more than $5 million to move him. Because a team could sign Diaz or Grandal to be their defense only catcher for less than 5 mil. Why would they want to pay Vazquez 5? Unless the Twins are attaching a prospect to him, and I think that's an even worse idea. His salary is so outsized with comparison to his abilities. Just like I'm sure the Tigers would love to move Javier Baez. Unfortunately for them, his contract is even bigger and longer. But he can't hit anymore and at some point defense just isn't enough to make up for it. Luckily the Twins only have 1 more year on this Vazquez deal.

Even worse if/when it's below replacement level performance.