Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

chpettit19

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,606

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    169

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    It looks more like pitch recognition to me than anything with his swing. I forget if it was Friday or Saturday, but he had a 2-0 or 3-0 fastball right down the middle that he was late on. Got off his A swing, but was late on a fastball. He looks like he's caught in between and just needs to get the timing locked in. Not worried about him big picture, but he seems a little off right now.
  2. chpettit19
    If they think he can still hit lefties I think Upton makes a ton of sense as a league minimum right handed platoon bat in the corner OF. If he struggles for 3 weeks in that role you cut him without thinking twice. Garlick had every chance to claim such a role in spring training and completely flopped. They traded Rooker. Celestino needs more time in AAA and is being wasted on the bench in Minneapolis. If you have someone you're not too concerned DFAing off the 40-man right now I don't know why you wouldn't give Upton a trial for the rest of April and see if he can thrive as a part time player. If he fails cut him and bring back Celestino or Garlick.
  3. chpettit19
    I like the idea of using him as a multi-inning guy this year and seeing how he holds up and if it works out putting him back in the rotation next year.
  4. chpettit19
    Which is less than 1 standard deviation above 100 which puts him in the good part of average pitchers. And he was a 104 last year with some pretty awful peripherals. Which is why Oakland couldn't even get a top 10 system prospect for him and even had to attach a prospect of their own to Manaea in the deal. Manaea is very much a league average pitcher whether you like it or not. He'll most certainly get more innings this year than Winder (not accounting for a major injury to either party of course), but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see a Winder type rookie put up roughly the same type of ERA numbers (high 3s or low 4s, Manaea was at 3.91 last year) as Manaea in about 120 innings. In fact Ober (not exactly a highly rated prospect) almost did it last year. Ober threw 108.1 total innings last year coming off the pandemic year and with a heavy injury history so they were extra cautious with him. I have no problem with you liking Manaea, but he isn't the clearly above average pitcher you're attempting to make him sound like. And outside of his innings likely being in the 160-180 range compared to 120ish for any of the Twins rookies this year it's absolutely not unreasonable to think one of those young arms can produce a 3.91 ERA in 120 innings this year.
  5. chpettit19
    Every season except 2020. While you ignored 2019. You can claim he cannot be accurately described as "league average" all you want, but I've shown over and over that you're mischaracterizing him by suggesting he's more than league average. I have no problem with you viewing him as better than league average, but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim while I've provided multiple to disprove it.
  6. chpettit19
    I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.
  7. chpettit19
    So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.
  8. chpettit19
    Agreed on none of the prospects getting to 160. That number makes more sense there. I'm not misrepresenting his numbers at all. 2020 is not skewing his numbers as he only threw 54 innings in 2020. By that argument 2019 is skewing his numbers by having a 1.21 ERA in a small sample of 29.2 innings. For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. And many people have argued on here that the Padres got Manaea for basically nothing so it most certainly is not most certainly difficult to accumulate such pitchers. I wouldn't be shocked if Winder threw 100 innings of league average pitching this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all. Paddack has had a better season than Manaea ever has. And I also don't see anyone doing all that much praising of Paddack. In fact it's almost all very quiet hope that he can get back close to his peak. Which is higher than Manaea's. There's a difference between saying the trade was good value for the Twins and stumbling over ourselves to praise Paddack.
  9. chpettit19
    Who would they DFA to bring Garlick up or sign Upton? Upton would be one thing if they think he's got some old Upton in his bat against lefties (he mashed in ST so there's hope), but I don't get why they wouldn't have just went with Garlick now and DFA'd a pitcher or whatever if that's their plan. It'd feel like awfully poor roster management to send Celestino down in a couple weeks to replace him with Garlick. Like you said that's wasting an extra call-up usage with him for now real reason.
  10. chpettit19
    Touche. That's my bad.
  11. chpettit19
    1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse. 2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104. He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.
  12. chpettit19
    The question then really is how quickly (well first of all if, but then how quickly) they can get Paddack to the pitcher they think he can be. If they get him back to his rookie season self after the first month or 2 this trade makes the Twins better in 2022 and 2023 and 2024. Really it comes down to being able to get Paddack to the pitcher he was as a prospect and his rookie year. If they do that this trade is an absolute steal for the Twins.
  13. chpettit19
    A. Rooker is a nothing piece to me. It's likely he was going to be DFA'd if he wasn't traded so that's whatever to me. Pagan has been a very successful reliever in the bigs before. And Paddack was a top 40 global prospect who also had great success as a rookie. Are either of them guaranteed to get back to those levels this year or in the next year or 2 until their respective control runs out? Absolutely not. But I like the calculated risk here. As for Rogers, I'm going to miss him and think it will hurt the pen not having him, but the pen was very good when he was hurt last year. Certainly not because of him being hurt, but it's evidence that they can succeed without him. The Twins have produced very successful bullpens under Falvine and Wes and I have faith they can repeat that this year. Hopefully without the first half meltdown like last year. But overall the thought process is more than sound in this trade. 1 year of a second tier reliever (Rogers is not Hader or Hendricks) for 3 years of a young pitcher with 1 very good season under his belt and a whole bunch of very promising peripherals in the years his ERA wasn't stellar is a good move. I'll miss Rogers, but that doesn't mean the thought process (which is all we can grade on now) wasn't very good. They get an A from me.
  14. chpettit19
    This was a thought of mine as well. There's certainly some evidence it may be the org as they also had a ton of pitchers who were expected to be great last year because they'd previously been great and they almost universally flopped. Musgrove was just about their only successful pitcher last year. Maybe it's more about the team than this specific arm. Or at least we can hang a little hope on the idea.
  15. chpettit19
    He was certainly the best reliever they had. No doubt about that. You won't hear details on which coaches they talked to and how the trade happened. When do we ever hear that stuff? Of course they have more recent insight into his health, but the Twins have already gone over some medical stuff and will have their team drs do an exam on him before the deal is completely finalized. All trades are based on assumed healthy players. If Paddack is hurt, or his elbow scans show more damage than the Padres were telling teams, the Twins pull out of the trade and it's no big deal. The Red Sox literally just did that to the Twins in the Graterol/Maeda deal. The Padres' staff's feelings on Paddack's value means nothing to the Twins. It's their view on the type of player they can turn him into that matters. And Tingler has every bit as much knowledge on his willingness to be coached up, his competitiveness, and all the other things that the team cares about as the current Padres staff.
  16. chpettit19
    I didn't say Rogers was bad. I said when Rogers was in the bullpen the bullpen was bad. You stated that when he wasn't healthy the bullpen was bad. That isn't true. When he was healthy (the first half of the season) the bullpen was terrible. After he got hurt the bullpen did very well. I'm not saying no Rogers was why it was good, but your statement "The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was very good. Your argument is that the FO's 2nd highest ranked coach was a trade target's manager the previous season and it's unlikely that they talked to said coach about that trade target? They should be fired if they didn't talk to him. This trade came together over 12 hours of time and you don't think they took the time to shoot Tingler a text at the very least and ask him if he thought Paddack could be coached up?
  17. chpettit19
    This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good. Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.
  18. chpettit19
    Not to mention it's a terrible idea to package your best trade chips.
  19. chpettit19
    I think they go committee early and if/when someone grabs hold of it they lock them in more permanently. Guessing it's a bunch of matchup based bullpen usage early on.
  20. chpettit19
    I don't like losing Rogers, but I don't mind this deal. Paddack's peripherals have been quite good and if he's able to get his ERA to more closely align with those peripherals this is a steal for the Twins. This likely puts more pressure on Alcala, Thielbar, and Duran to become big pen arms, but if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.
  21. chpettit19
    If they get Paddack's ERA to match his peripherals this is a great deal for the Twins in the big picture. If they don't it's still an even deal due to Paddack's extra control (assuming he's a league average pitcher for those 3 years). Don't like losing Rogers, but big picture this is a solid deal.
  22. chpettit19
    The Phillies is a team you should track this year if you have some free time. They will be a very interesting team to follow. They're built the way you seem to be asking for. Bad defense all over the field in the name of good offense. Lineup is quite impressive, but will likely be insanely bad defensively. I'm excited to see how that experiment works out. We all have our own ideas on how teams should be built so it's always fun when teams do things differently and we can get some kind of real world tests run.
  23. chpettit19
    It sounds like the Pirates are asking for some crazy things from the Padres for Reynolds. I'd love him. I actually thought a deal for Kiermaier during the offseason would've been nice. And right now I'd really like a Conforto signing. I think him and Kepler in the corners with Buxton in center would be great. I think Martin ends up in LF most of the time with the ability to bounce around a little, but that still leaves RF open after Kepler moves on and I'm hoping Larnach hits enough to make up for his not great glove and Celestino turns into a really good 4th OFer who does some platooning with Larnach. I'm also not interested in trading Kepler unless you're getting a really good player in return. He's the only Twins player worthy of major league innings in the corner OF (Kirilloff as well, but I'd prefer him at 1B as much as possible).
  24. chpettit19
    Who said they should be teaching their pitchers to have fielders get all the outs? Ryan and Ober both struck out more than a guy an inning in the majors last year. But the league K% last year was 23.2%. More than 75% of outs still come via fielders. Ignoring defense in the name of offense is a recipe for failure. 4 out of the last 19 World Series champs were even slightly negative defensively. Defense matters. That isn't the likely answer at all. Martin and Lewis won't be called up simply because defense is a problem. That's not how things work. Martin or Lewis or Larnach or any other player you want to mention will replace Kepler when they're a better overall player than Kepler. Ignoring WAR and defense isn't an argument for them replacing Kepler. At this point Kepler is a better overall baseball player than any prospect you can name and is definitely better than any 2 that could take a corner OF spot.
  25. chpettit19
    Archer topped out at 95.2 in his first appearance.
×
×
  • Create New...