chpettit19

"That player" hasn't had 450 PAs because of injury. Or last year because he was bad enough that he got beat out for playing time. You had to use a utility player (Garrett Hampson played 7 positions last year plus had 22 pinch hit appearances) in one of your 3 player example to make your "4th OF are very important" point. Impressive stuff. yes, every roster spot is important. And any player can end up playing significantly more than you'd like. Opening day saw Bader in left, Larnach at DH, and Julien on the bench. Game 3 saw the same thing. They did move Bader over to right in Chicago for game 4, I'll give you that. But then he went right back to left and away we went with Miranda and Julien being the ones who were alternating their time sitting on the bench early in the season before their demotions as Larnach was DHing and Bader was playing mostly LF with Wallner in RF and Buxton in CF. Yes, they've moved him around some in the OF. But he's never been a "4th OFer." He's been a starting OFer from the beginning. Since opening day. "Starting" is a loose term around Twins land and that's why I said "most of the time" in the comment you originally responded to. And he's spent most of his time in left field. Like I said. It's not guessing anymore. We saw how the season started. It was with Julien on the bench and then Julien and Miranda alternating while Bader got consistent time. We've seen how the season has played out. It's been with Bader playing most of the time in left field. Just like I said before the season and like I'm saying now. But he's been surprisingly good with the bat so it's been a good thing. I hope he keeps it up. But he was clear in that interview during the offseason he came here to play a lot. Rocco was clear in spring that Bader was here to play a lot of left field. And it's played out that way. I'm not sure what you're arguing with. That's how it's played out.

He is eligible to come off the 60-day at the end of this month. He doesn't need to wait until then to start a rehab assignment. He has 20 days of rehab assignment eligibility. I believe he's eligible to come off the list on the 25th or somewhere around there. So, technically, he is eligible to start rehab now. But he's not likely to start it now. But let's go with your July 18th date. That's roughly a month. A month and a week I suppose. But 2 months from now is touching mid-August. That has never been the timeline. The Twins site says "late June." He was hurt end of April. It's a 6-8 week period before it heals. We're at 6 weeks. So, another couple weeks for healing and then it's rehab. He should be healed before the end of the month and can begin a rehab assignment before his IL stint is up. Let's say it takes the full 8 weeks and he's healed on the 26th. That leaves over 2 weeks of games before the break for rehab. So I'll stick with my month being a pretty reasonable estimate and 2 months being too long.

Keaschall better be back sooner than that. 1 month. It's a broken bone he's already missed 6+ weeks for. Should be healed in a couple weeks, right? Then another 2 weeks of rehab maybe? If he's not back in a Twins uni in a month it's because Clemens is making a case for breakout player of the year or we're probably pretty cranky with the Twins. And I really hope there aren't too many pinch hitting/platoon opportunities for him because he's starting games. I don't want Keaschall on the bench. He's got too much potential for that.

I'm going off direct quotes from him and Rocco. If you want to call that "guessing," then sure, I'm "guessing." This team plays people all over. So that's always the assumption. But Rocco was directly quoted as saying he was going to play left field. "We're going to get him a lot of work in left field." If you want to say I'm guessing after that quote, sure, I'm guessing. But we're all just guessing on here on almost everything. https://www.mlb.com/video/harrison-bader-on-joining-the-twins Listen for yourself and tell me if you think this sounds like a guy who was expecting anything other than significant playing time no matter what the health of this team was. Reynolds directly asks him what the conversations were that landed him here. He directly asks him about injuries, chances to play, platoons. Bader tells him the biggest thing is he wants to play and be on the field as much as possible. You're guessing far more than I am. But whatever. Read that quote and hear that interview however you want.

Jonah Bride career against lefties: .201/.298/.237/.535 Jonah Bride 2025 against lefties: .222/.294/.244/.539 I mean, sure, better than Larnach. But let's still not put Jonah Bride in a game to hit against lefties. If we can't find somebody who hits better against lefties than either of those guys what are we even doing? As for Bader, he said when he was signed he was coming here because he was getting an opportunity to play. Often. He was signed to play often and he's going to continue to play often. Maybe not every day, but he's never been a strict 4th outfielder and he isn't going to be one now. He's going to continue to play the majority of the time no matter what the health of the team looks like. He's the "most of the time" left fielder for this team. Has been since the day he signed. The only questions were if he'd stay healthy and hit enough to deserve a corner outfield spot. So far it's career years for both questions. Let's hope it continues.

The Twins prove that last part every offseason.

Interesting stuff. It's what I was hoping/kind of expecting them to do with Varland this year. Maybe it's something they'll do with him in the future once they've proved the hypothesis in the minors. Being able to have even 1 guy who could do this in the majors would be huge. Giving the rest of the pen a day off every 4 days would definitely be worth a pen spot. The challenge then becomes what happens when that guy doesn't have it on one of his days and only gets you 1 inning? Probably not the end of the world most of the time. But can be a real killer depending on what the games around it are like. The other challenge is simply being able to have that many guys who can go that many innings effectively. I'd guess the idea is to be able to be fluid. Train everyone to be as effective as possible in the role that best suits them and be able to adjust as needed. You need to have a really good AAA pitching staff, though.

I don't disagree with any of that. I just prefer ceiling in prospects. It's why I was never as high on Lee as so many others. Even the "high floor" guys have a low probability of being successful major leaguers. It's just the nature of the beast. And difference makers are needed to win in the playoffs. So ceiling is the first thing I look at. Then it's proximity to the majors. But any major leaguer you can produce out of your system (whether you drafted them, signed them, claimed them, traded for them, however you acquired them) has value. Lots of value. I wasn't trying to say Morris has no value and could've worded things differently. But, like you said, Morris isn't likely at all to be more than a mid to back end guy. That is very valuable. But not in the same universe as a front end guy. The other 3 all have top of the rotation type stuff. The chances of them actually reaching that lofty potential is incredibly small. Again, just the nature of the beast. But if your 100th percentile outcome is #1 starter then you can miss that and still end up a Morris. If Morris' 100th percentile outcome is #3 starter and he misses by too much he's fighting for a pen spot or an MLB career at all. The other 3 may never even reach AAA (Prielipp should be there pretty darn soon, though). But I just prefer ceiling. I'll take the extra risk of them being farther away for the added reward of them potentially being org changing arms. This is what makes these discussions so interesting to me. So many ways to look at these guys. And so many ways to prioritize them. Organizations need to take it all into account and it can really effect how teams are built.

Prielipp is the closest with #1 potential so he'd be my #1 ranked. I don't know if he'll be able to stay healthy, but I don't know that he won't be able to. He's been healthy this year so I'll say the 2 surgeries worked and he's good moving forward. After that it'd be Hill and Soto 2A and 2B. Both have really nice ceilings but are really far away. Hard to separate them at this point. I don't see it with Morris so he's not even close to these other guys. Not in the same universe when it comes to ceiling as far as I can see.

Kwan developed more power last year by looking to drive balls on the inner third to the pull side early in the count. Can certainly be the same sort of approach Eeles takes. I certainly don't mean to say he has no power at all, just that I don't think people should expect him to be a 15-20 HR guy like his 8 HRs in 260 PAs suggest he may be. Kwan hit 14 last year, though. And he's at 5 already this year. I'd be over the moon if Eeles can get there. Following the Kwan trajectory and being more BA/OBP with a .380-.400 (or even a little lower) slug to start and working his way up to more of a .420-.440 slug would be an incredible outcome for him. I love him and how he plays the game. There's no one in the Twins system I'm cheering for more (outside of Jenkins because he has team ceiling lifting talent). And I think he has a real shot at reaching the bigs. I just don't see the ceiling on his power being that high. But I've been wrong many, many times before. And would be more than happy to add this to that ever-growing list.

Festa's problem getting deeper into games this year is a combination of being inefficient, the offense providing him no wiggle room, and him struggling in the 5th. He's been taken out earlier this year because he's been in close games and is allowing a bunch of base runners in the 5th as he gets back into the heart of the order a 3rd time. The first 2 times he was pulled with multiple runners on and a lefty coming up and Coulombe got him out of the jam (Tigers and Mets games). The 3rd time he got pulled and Sands and the defense let him down and bit and didn't get him out of the jam (White Sox game). Festa needs to be more efficient with his pitch counts. The offense needs to score him some runs. And if/when those things happen, Rocco needs to give him some extra leash to get into the lineup a 3rd time and build that experience. Festa was given a shot to go out and get through 5 in each of his first 3 starts this year but he imploded. Well, he was at least given the chance to start the 5th, I guess I can't say for sure how long the leash was. If you go look at the actual context of the games when he was removed, I think pretty reasonable arguments can be made for pulling him in all of them. With the Mets game being pretty obvious, in my opinion. Top 5, 1-0 Twins lead and Festa gives up leadoff single followed by 2 deep lineouts. Top of the order gets a single and a throwing error leads to a game tying run and the go ahead run being on third base. 2 hole hitter with massive L/R splits coming up. With 2 outs and only at 64 pitches I could go either way on this one. Not crazy to take him out and go with the lefty reliever to improve your chances at keeping the game tied there. Not crazy to keep him in and see if he can get the last out and get you deeper in the game. Top 5, 0-0 game Festa gives up leadoff single followed by another single, gets a strikeout and then hits a guy. Festa is now at 76 pitches. The next batter up is some guy named Juan Soto and Danny Coulombe is warm in the pen. Is taking Festa out there "training wheels" or the smart decision to bring in your veteran lefty with a 0.00 ERA to face a first ballot Hall of Fame lefty hitter? Coulombe got Soto to hit into an inning ending double play, for the record. Top 5, 2-0 Twins lead and Festa walks the leadoff hitter, then gives up a single and is pulled. Sands and the defense have a rough inning and it's 3-2 Sox by the end of it. Festa was at 84 pitches at this point and was pulled as the top of the order was coming back up. This is the one that fits the "training wheels" argument best, probably. No real chance at all to see the top of the order, but the argument for pulling him is that it took him 84 pitches to get through 4 innings and 2 batters. You need to be more efficient than that. Especially against a team like the White Sox. But a team like the White Sox is also the kind of team you'd like to see a young guy get a little more leash on. So, this one I think could probably go either way as well. If I'm the manager, I leave him in in the Tigers game and let him face Carpenter. It was April 11th so he wasn't going to be throwing 100 pitches that day or anything, but 64 isn't a lot and it's a growth opportunity. It's a chance for me to show faith in my young pitcher. With 2 outs I give the kid a shot. The Mets is an obvious pull to me. The White Sox game was a bit of a tossup, but I probably pull him there after the first 2 guys get on. He likely isn't getting through that inning anyways so going to one of my top pen arms for the leadoff man and letting him cleanup the mess makes sense. But I think there's reasonable arguments for both sides here and saying that Festa isn't getting through 5 because the Twins have "training wheels" on him is ignoring a lot of the context on why he's been pulled.

His "power" and K% are the things I'm most interested in following. I don't mean to be rude by putting power in quotes, but he isn't a real power hitter. That's the AAA environment playing tricks on us. His batted ball data doesn't come close to suggesting a .500 slug hitter. I think his best comp offensively is Steven Kwan. Not that I'd predict Eeles can put up OPS+ numbers in the upper 120s or wRC+ numbers in the low 130s, but that type of hitter. So, a poor man's Steven Kwan. (I don't predict many people will put up those kinds of numbers as that's well above average offensive production so that's no huge statement on my part) So, I'm looking for him to get that slug back to .500 even though he isn't actually somebody who hits the ball super hard, super often and I'd like to see him get the K% at or under 10%. Technically, it is right now, but I think you understand I'm talking about over a larger sample size. Kwan in AAA at age 23 had a .311/.398/.505/.903 quad slash with a 11.7% walk rate and 6.7% K rate in 120 PAs. He was in the majors the next year. Eeles at 24 last year had a .299/.419/.500/.919 quad slash with a 12.7% walk rate and 14.6% K rate in 260 PAs. Eeles' avg exit velo in AAA last year was 86.6 with a max of 107. Hard hit rate of 28.2%. Kwan's career average exit velo is 85.8 with a max of 107.1 and a hard hit rate of 21.1%. Now they took very different paths to get to those points. Kwan was a 5th round pick out of a national championship D1 program where he starred with our good buddy Trevor Larnach and some dude named Rutschman I think a few people have heard of. Eeles, as we know, was undrafted after playing only 1 season at a major D1 program. Oh, and he's really short. Although, to be fair, Kwan isn't exactly Carson McCusker out there. Another reason I think it's a solid comp. It isn't easy for an undrafted guy out of indy ball to make the majors. And Eeles isn't likely to do it this year with the Twins. But if he can put up the numbers he did last year for a couple months, I'm going to start claiming he can be a poor man's Kwan and the Twins are missing the boat by not giving him a chance if their offense is continuing to struggle. The odds are stacked against him, but I'd like to see him reproduce what he did last year with a lowered K rate and get a shot. Whether it's here or somewhere else. But now it's up to Payton to do his thing and give the Twins a reason to believe. Julien, Fitzgerald, Camargo, Keirsey, Gasper, Miranda, McCusker, and eventually Martin are on the same field as him. Make it undeniable who the best player is. Start with Julien since you play the same position. Come mid-August (I think a much more realistic timeline than "soon") when the Twins are looking for a 2B because of injuries and they're making a call across town don't leave any doubt. Make it a silly question when Falvey asks Gardy if that Eeles kid is worth a shot over Julien. Because if it's close Julien and his 40-man spot is getting the nod.

Soon? No. There's a near 0 chance he makes his major league debut "soon." I'd even put his chance of debuting this year under 10%. Keaschall will be back soon-ish. Miranda and Julien are still on the 40-man and won't be DFA'd lightly. Bride won't be DFA'd lightly. Clemens isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Fitzgerald is likely trusted far more with the glove at SS so he'd have the edge if a SS is needed. Gasper looks like he's being setup to be the 3rd catcher on the 40-man so he's not getting DFA'd. McCusker, Camargo, and Keirsey are probably the 3 most likely DFA candidates on the 40-man when it comes to position players. Keirsey provides the same kind of speed as Eeles so they wouldn't DFA him for a pinch runner so that isn't Eeles' path. McCusker provides more of a bat so that isn't a path. Camargo is a catcher so that's kind of a different thing. He can provide the roster spot but they aren't fighting for the same opportunity. I don't think the Twins truly want Eeles playing short in the majors. Or 3rd. He's likely limited to 2B and LF in the majors. Those are pretty easy to fill spots. I love Eeles. He was my favorite player to watch in the minors last year. He's a gamer and plays hard. But his chances of getting to the majors this year are small. Being hurt when Keaschall got the call and when Clemens was acquired likely took away nearly his entire chance. There are just too many bodies in front of him now. He's not a high enough prospect for them to clear the way for him. I love Eeles. I really want to see him in the majors. I really want to see him and McCusker hit back-to-back in a major league lineup at least once. But the odds of Eeles jumping everyone in front of him and the Twins DFAing someone to give him a shot after the right combination of people are hurt or playing so poorly the Twins move on from them are sadly very low.

8 million is top 10 catcher money. Defensive catchers are incredibly easy to find. For 4 million or less. Austin Hedges, Tom Murphy, Jose Trevino, Elias Diaz, the list goes on and on. Finding veteran, glove only catchers is incredibly easy and cheap. Maldonado himself made 5 million 1 year. That was the most he ever made in a season.

The Twins have the 4th best batting average with runners in scoring position in major league baseball. They've actually been very good with runners in scoring position. Their problem is getting guys in scoring position. They're 21st in baseball in plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Recently is the key word here. Again, Griffin Jax gave up 2 runs. 2. In the entire month of May. 14 appearances. You just choose to ignore the 12 scoreless outings and only pop up for the 2 where he gave up singular runs and say "see, he's struggling!" You don't have to take away a few bad outings. Nobody is asking you to do that. We fully acknowledge his blowup games. He had 2 of them. Back to back. What we are saying is that those weren't recent. Your use of the present tense when speaking about him actively struggling is what we disagree with. His ERA since those games? 2.25. 1.32 FIP. 35 Ks in 20 innings. Yes, he gave up a 2 run homer yesterday. It's a bummer. His blowup games were nearly 2 months ago. It's time to get over them. He isn't struggling. He just isn't completely perfect.

Tyler Heineman is nearly 34 years old and has played for 10 different organizations. The Toronto Blue Jays did not develop Tyler Heineman. How early did you "look at Heineman?" 2012-2016 when he was developing in Houston's system? 2017-2018 when he was developing in Milwaukee's system? Or any time since then when he's bounced around between Arizona, Miami, San Fran, Philly, St Louis, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Toronto again, Boston, and back to Toronto? That stat line comes in a whopping 59 plate appearances. It is quite impressive. For 59 plate appearances. But the likelihood of him sustaining anywhere near those numbers is awfully low. Good for him and Toronto if he does, though. Good for Popkins, too. He's getting a little redemption this year against everyone who says it was him and his philosophy that ruined the Twins hitters. But back to the Heineman point. Toronto didn't develop him. He'd already played in the majors for 2 teams before Toronto ever signed him. And he's played for 2 others in between stints with the Blue Jays. He's having an incredible start to the season, but he isn't proof of any great Toronto catcher development system. He was 31 years old before he joined their organization. And they let him walk away twice. He's just a journeyman veteran catcher on a 59 PA heater.

Winans is 29 and has 8 MLB starts. He has nearly 300 innings at AAA and is in his third straight year of dominating that level. Teams don't seem to see "it" with him. He's given up 51 hits in 40 innings pitched along with 12 walks allowed and two hit batters. He has a 7.20 ERA in the majors. He's a soft tossing righty (his fastball barely touches 90). That's a tough profile for major league success in this day and age. He's essentially a softer throwing Randy Dobnak. He's "ready for the MLB" in the same way Randy and the rest of the 29+ year old borderline MLB talent in AAA is "ready for the MLB."

Or year 2.

In general, I'd like to see guys like Festa who are putting up good games get to stretch it out more and get some experience going deeper into games, but I can't be too upset with him being taken out in a 1-1 game after giving up an unearned run and having the heart of their order coming up with a lefty taking over to face their back to back lefties with a runner in scoring position (Tigers game). Or him being pulled after he gives up 2 singles and hits a guy in a 0-0 game with Juan Soto coming up and being replaced by a lefty who then gets a double play ball (Mets game). The White Sox game was the game he left while handing the bullpen the best situation and Sands was pretty awful. Festa had a 2-run lead and walked a guy and gave up a single before Sands came in and him and the defense let Festa down. Festa has been really good for 4 innings but has struggled from there. That's his next step as a pitcher. Be more efficient through 4 to be able to get deeper in games. It's a vital part of his development if he wants to be a major league starter. But the suggestion that he hasn't looked like a major leaguer is pretty aggressive in my view. Even last year he had 77 Ks in 64.1 innings. He's not a finished product by any means, but there's a lot to like in what he's shown so far.

Before this start Festa had given up 2 earned runs in 13 innings with 15 Ks and a 2.38 FIP to go with that 1.38 ERA. Not sure what else you're looking for to "look like an MLB pitcher" in that small of a sample size.

This may be his peak value, but I don't think it's the best time to make a decision on being a buyer or seller. I don't like (that's the very mild way of putting it) doing nothing at the deadline. Make moves. Buy or sell, don't sit by and watch. And definitely don't fake buy by getting Trevor Richards types to pretend you did something. I'm always open to trading anyone and everyone if the deal is right. If the Twins are blown away by an offer they should take it. But this team is too unpredictable right now to know what they should be doing in terms of trades (assuming they aren't getting some Chris Archer deal). Need to get to the end of June at least to have a better feel for what this team should be doing in terms of being a buyer or a seller.

The Twins decided Ronny wasn't good enough after only 31 innings. Was that "going crazy over nearly 30 innings pitched?" 31 innings with a 1.161 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. 4.02 FIP isn't anything outrageous. Alcala turns 30 in July, Ronny is 25 at the end of June. They gave Ronny 31 major league innings before he ran out of options and they had to make a decision on him at the age of 24. I don't think any strong statements should be made about Ronny yet, but his first 60 innings in the majors (roughly 1 season for a reliever) has him at a 2.56 ERA with 64 Ks and 3.73 FIP. Sounds like a major league middle reliever to me. The Twins mismanaged him in terms of roster decision pretty significantly. In the name of running out the Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, and Trevor Richards of the world.

I think their spots on the 40-man and being pre-arb and/or arb1 next year at least gives them a chance. I don't think Will Holland has much of a realistic chance of ever even getting a chance to stick. The Twins clearly don't believe in McCusker yet and he's hitting better than Holland. Holland has the much better glove, though. Which is a factor. They don't believe in Fitzgerald's breakout. I'm not arguing whether they should or shouldn't, just pointing it out. Not a lot of guys at the age of 27, 28, etc. getting real chances to stick. By virtue of simply being on the 40-man, and not being meaningfully more expensive, Julien and Miranda are ahead of Holland, Eeles, Prato, Morales, and Fedko. Those guys aren't "real" prospects. As much as I love Eeles and really want to see him and McCusker hitting back-to-back in an MLB lineup at least once, he has extra hurdles to jump to get a chance to stick simply because of the roster rules in major league baseball. McCusker was up for a week and the Twins clearly didn't think he could hit MLB pitching. The Twins scored 2, 6, 1, 3, 5, 1, 2, 4, and 0 runs in the games he was up for and had both of their catchers in the lineup more often than not. If they aren't going to give a guy doing what he was doing in AAA a shot when they couldn't score more than 2 runs in over half the games I simply can't put any of these other non-prospects ahead of Julien or Miranda. A whole lot can change in a year, but until I see different I'm just not going to believe the Twins will give an extended look to guys like Holland, Eeles, Prato, Morales, or Fedko over Jonah Bride types or Julien and Miranda types. 40-man spots mean a lot. I hear ya on the catcher thing, but I just don't think they'll take a chance on any of those guys. Not in terms of truly "sticking." Short-term, 10-day IL stint back-up role where they get 2 games? Sure. But real playing time? I don't see it. I think they'd swing a trade for some veteran Vazquez all-glove, no bat clone or sign one off the street. If the criteria we're talking about is "sticking" on the 26-man, I don't see anyone in the Twins system that they'll go with.

Keaschall, Martin, McCusker, Miranda, Julien, Rodriguez. It's a tough question because I wouldn't be surprised if nearly half the guys on that list make an appearance on the MLB roster between now and 6/1/26. But that's different than being counted on as real contributing members of the roster. I'd actually like to add Jenkins to my list, but I just can't trust him to stay healthy at this point. Multiple months missed with a sprained ankle from the beginning of ST? That's not a good sign. I'm not a Dr by any means, but that's a lot of missed time for an ankle sprain. Miranda and Julien never coming back would be shocking if only because injuries will open the door for them many more times. I have 6 on my list for guys that will be moderately counted on between now and 6/1/26 because of injuries. That's a lot of time. Keaschall is a guarantee. He'll be counted on as soon as he's healthy again. Martin, Julien, and Miranda will get a shot again. The only 2 that aren't essentially guaranteed (in my opinion) on my list are McCusker and Rodriguez. And it's a numbers game. They're both on the 40-man. At some point they're both quite likely to get a shot. I don't think the Twins go with any of their internal catchers. Gasper is probably the most likely to get a short-term look as the backup this year if there's an injury to Jeffers or Vazquez, but the Twins aren't going into next year with anyone from the system on the MLB roster.