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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    If I'm the Twins owner I'm asking my FO to sign people for no more than 2 years. For the Twins to be successful they need to develop their own pitching. Plain and simple. They can't afford top end FA arms on long term deals so are paying for their decline. Donaldson has 2 years left on his big deal. This offseason I'm pushing for the FO to sign pitchers to 1 or 2 year deals. If they can get a Scherzer/Verlander type for big money on a short deal I'm all for it. Not paying any of these guys on long term deals as I don't think any will be good enough for the 20M+ they likely demand. I say this is what I'd do as the Twins owner, because 2 years is all the more leash I'd give Falvine. They need to develop top end starters. They now have 10-12 guys who should be up next year and establishing themselves by 2023. If they haven't turned anyone into a #1-2 starter they're out. They were hired to develop a pitching pipeline and it's time to see it or find someone who can do it. So I want vets on big $, short term deals to front the rotation while the young guys get their chances. Then after 2023 if the pitching pipeline isn't flowing somebody else gets to come in and take over a roster with almost no guaranteed money and make their changes. I know many of you have no desire to see Falvine here for 2 more years, but their arms are set to start debuting this year and next. Doesn't make sense to me to fire them as their arms start showing up. They had top 10 staffs in 2019 and 2020 so I think they get the chance to see their prospects through. If they all flop, it's over, but if they show up and perform Falvine gets to stick around.
  2. chpettit19
    For sure. I think it's more likely they slide Polanco back over to SS (or bring back Simmons for less than he's paid this year) until Lewis or Martin can take over as I don't think they want to spend big on one of the big $ FA SS. Their 40 man is really where the questions come in. I'm not totally sure who all needs to be protected, but I know there's a number of guys. They're going to have to make the right decisions there and spend more or less all of their FA $ on pitching. I hope their plan isn't to go into next year with young guys all over the pitching staff. I think the offense stays basically the same and they bring in a bunch of veteran arms and the young guys are the depth and get their chances as the year goes on. Don't know enough about the 40 man to know how many vets they can bring in, but there's plenty of dead weight to be cut from the pitching side right now.
  3. chpettit19
    The Twins are currently tied for 11th in MLB in runs scored. So suggesting the offense can't compete next year seems a little more pessimistic than necessary. Pitching is a whole different mess, but the offense has been good enough to compete for the division this year. Losing Cruz obviously hurts (I don't think they resign him), but that's the only bat that won't be back next year (I don't think Simmons is back either, but losing him isn't hurting the offense). If Buxton returns and can play 100 games (not holding my breath, but there's a chance) the offense is more than good enough. That's what I read "going into next season we have a competitive lineup and bench" to mean. Think that's a more than reasonable stance. The pitching is the question. Harder to see them turning that around by next year, but with 50m(ish) to spend and a prospect or 2 contributing there's a path to contention for the division. Even if they don't get someone as good or better than Berrios, there's more than ample opportunity to raise the performance of the staff as a whole. Not to WS good, but it wouldn't take much to improve them to a league average pitching staff. I'm not predicting they catch Chicago next year, but I think there's a very decent chance next year is drastically better than this one with an outside chance of a SF style surprise contention year. Big offseason for the FO, though. Have to hit on a number of arms.
  4. chpettit19
    I know the Twins (and much of the league) love their high spin sliders, but if they're "forcing" pitchers who don't have effective sliders to throw them more I'm very concerned. So if we assume the change Shoemaker is mad about is the Twins having him throw his slider more, then it seems to me the problem started as a Twins problem and morphed to a Shoemaker problem as his struggles continued. At some point when you're getting you brains bashed in on the mound and it's the slider getting smashed every time stop throwing your slider (Twins analytic team should've been noticing these numbers, too, and that concerns me). Maybe the game plan was to use the slider more coming in, but while you're on the mound you have the power to shake off the catcher. As you watch your career circle the drain it's on you to throw the pitches you think are going to save your career. So I agree it's a Twins and Shoemaker problem. I don't think he was out of line with anything he said, and he definitely should have said "no" before he ended up back in AAA with no other team wanting him.
  5. chpettit19
    So improving the team as a whole instead of focusing on replacing an individual player 1 for 1 no longer works you're saying? The Twins were 1 pitcher away from being pushed "over the top?" What do you consider the top? The World Series? If we'd traded for Clevinger last year when he went to SD we would've won the World Series? We'll have to agree to disagree there. Why do you think every team emulates each other? Why do you think the Yankees and Dodgers build the same way as the Rays and Indians (but then keep veterans on huge deals cuz of the $ difference)? Your stance seems to be "every major league org (other than Colorado and St Louis) are doing it wrong." Do you think 1 starter better than Berrios would've made this 2021 Twins team a contender? Or do you think the pitching staff as a whole was subpar and they need to improve the overall talent, not just replace Shoemaker with FA Stud X? Because that's all I'm saying. It's not about replacing Berrios 1 for 1, it's about improving the aggregate performance of the pitching staff. Not sure why that's a crazy idea.
  6. chpettit19
    I think Merrifield is a great comp for his most likely outcome. High average player who moves around the field. Not insane speed, but enough to swipe bags and be a nuisance. Not great power, but will run into a dozen a year. I also like Marwin comp for his floor. Glove that can move around and be solid wherever it goes, but offense is spotty. (Surgeon General Warning: His floor is he never makes the bigs and is a complete bust from today forward. Now that I got that covered hopefully no debbie downers feel the need to say it) His ceiling to me is Lindor with less arm, but I'd give him a 1% chance of ever getting there. I think his most likely range is Merrifield to Polanco. Solid contact hitter, decent speed, decent glove, then just is he hitting 12 or 22 bombs?
  7. chpettit19
    Have you, and others who are amongst the "trading Berrios automatically means you'll have worse pitching next year" crowd, seen Moneyball? If so, do you remember the scene where they're talking about replacing Giambi? If not, the scene is basically FO personnel, scouts, etc. discussing their chances of competing the following season and how screwed they are cuz they can't get anyone better than Giambi. Billy Beane straight up says "we can't replace him," and he's right, just like you're right the Twins likely can't replace Berrios' production at his price tag in 1 signing or with 1 callup. But they can improve the staff as a whole. The entire offense is back (minus Cruz who wasn't a sure thing resign with the NL likely getting the DH, and can still be resigned anyways). If you believe, as I do, that this offense can compete for a division title you're really only worried about the pitching. So the Twins have gone from Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, their incumbent prospects, and about 40M to spend to Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, their incumbent prospects, 2 pitching prospects that should debut in the next couple weeks from the Rays, SWR, and about 50M to spend (plus Martin for the offense). The question is what's the difference in those 2 situations and are the Twins in a better position to build a staff for 2022 now than 2 weeks ago. Replacing Berrios with 1 other 3 WAR pitcher for 10M is going to be real hard to do. (I'm not going to look up the actual Twins pitcher's WAR numbers for this exercise, sorry) But replacing the negative (presumably) WAR from many others on the staff with significantly better options is more than reasonable. The goal isn't it replace Berrios 1 for 1, it's to build a better staff. Take them from a 0 WAR staff to a 5 WAR staff (numbers completely made up, but the point remains). The Twins have given themselves more ways to improve for next year (and the future) now than they had 2 weeks ago. Not sure why that wouldn't have been the goal for everyone who cares about the Twins. It sucks seeing Berrios leave. But if the pitching staff as a whole is able to be improved by a couple of the prospects filling some minor roles (mid-relief, #5 starter type roles) and the Twins can sign some veteran arms with their 50M I don't see any reason why they couldn't be a significantly better staff next year even without Berrios. Just like the A's replacing Giambi, the Twins can't replace Berrios 1 for 1, but they can in the aggregate. Now the FO just has to not screw it up.
  8. chpettit19
    Typical MLB Organization acquisition. Literally every team in the league does this. This happens basically every day in baseball. Remember Travis Blankenhorn? He's been waived and picked up roughly 139385 times this season by basically every team in the league. All sarcasm aside, this is a move every team makes all the time. It's not some "cheap Twins" move. It's just the business of baseball that usually isn't noticed.
  9. chpettit19
    The offense has been good enough to contend for the division this year. Losing Cruz obviously hurts now, but he was a FA and would have had to have been resigned for next year anyways. I think it's more than reasonable to expect the returning position players to provide another year of division winning caliber offense next year. Pitching has been the destroyer of the Twins world this year. Going into next year I think Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, and Alacala were the only 5 guys on the current staff that had their spots locked up. Now it's just Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, and Alcala. So the question for next year, in my opinion, is what can they do to build a staff with Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, and their upper minors prospects (including Ober, Jax etc. in the prospect category for ease of not typing them all out) plus about $50M? I think there's a reasonable chance they can use 50M and their upper minors prospects to build a staff around the 4 incumbents next year. Not WS good, but certainly much better than this year. I'm not writing next year off. If 1 or 2 of the upper minors guys can step into rotation or BP spots they have half a staff with 50M to fill in the rest. Think it's doable. All this to say I think holding onto Donaldson isn't a terrible thing and losing Cruz and Berrios doesn't bury them.
  10. chpettit19
    This season doesn't matter anymore. Hasn't for weeks, if not months. Do we agree on that? The focus is 2022 and beyond, right? As for 2022, do you think the Twins have a better chance of competing in 2022 with basically the whole offense coming back (minus Cruz, which is obviously a big loss), Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, 50M(ish) to spend, and SWR, Martin, Ryan, and Strotman, or the whole offense (still without Cruz), Berrios, Maeda, Rogers Duffey, 40M(ish) to spend and no SWR, Martin, Ryan, or Strotman? What do you think the odds of competing in 2022 looked like in those 2 scenarios? By competing I simply mean winning the division (let's walk before we run to the WS). Yes, if you only care about the MLB team you should absolutely check out for the rest of 2021. It's not going to get better. Did you want them to trade prospects the last couple weeks in an attempt to get better for 2021 or just keep the same bad team in place? What were your goals for the rest of 2021?
  11. chpettit19
    But you need prospects to build a team that can win the World Series. Nobody is building their team off FA and MLB player trades alone. The Dodgers aren't the Dodgers without Buehler, Urias, Seager, Smith, Bellinger, Gonsolin, and May. All of which are players they called up and are still not FA eligible.
  12. chpettit19
    We don't have any idea what the pitching going into 2022 will be. We only know it won't have Berrios now. They'll have 50+m to spend this offseason (based on the predicted 40m+not paying Berrios his arb salary). If I read your post right you're suggesting they'll have basically the same offense as 2019 and 2020 (agreed), but now they're going into the offseason with Maeda in the rotation and Duffey, Rogers, Alacala in the pen. The question is can they turn 50M and their current upper level prospects into a competitive pitching staff for next year. I think there's a chance. At least as good of a chance as doing it with Berrios, 40m, and no Woods Richardson (or Martin for the offense).
  13. chpettit19
    I don't think the Twins got anyone in A ball this deadline (I may have missed a deal). They brought in 2 arms for Cruz that should debut in the next few weeks. They brought in 2 AA players for Berrios who should debut next year. The traded Happ for living, breathing humans which is some sort of voodoo hex move. The Twins are a bad team this year. They have a very good chance of finishing in last place in the division. They likely weren't going to catch the White Sox next year with Berrios and he's made it abundantly clear that he's going to the highest bidder in 2023. Keeping him for 1 more year where they were still not going to win the division doesn't make sense. Cruz was on an expiring deal. Keeping him for 2 more months doesn't make sense. Happ has been awful and is on an expiring deal so keeping him had no value. What would your plan have been today? Keep the whole team? Build a team around the likes of Refsnyder and Garlick? Of all the different plans for building a team that are thrown around on these message boards I think trying to build around career minor leaguers is the least likely to work. They're career minor leaguers for a reason. Every team builds through the minors. Even the Dodgers and Yankees. They can supplement their young guys better, but they're built through calling guys like Buehler, Bellinger, Smith, Seager, Urias up. How would you build the Twins given the team they had coming into July this year?
  14. chpettit19
    So your argument is that the Twins have been bad this year because of the veterans added recently so the Twins should acquire veterans so they aren't bad?
  15. chpettit19
    Next 10 years?! Dang, they're not going to hit on any prospects are they?
  16. chpettit19
    And I'd argue the Twins "rebuild" right now is going to much quicker than any team you mentioned. They'll come back with a solid offense still next year and have at least 50m to play with for rebuilding the pitching. Plus they have brought in all players who are looking to debut this year or next. Absolutely no guarantee they hit on all, or even most, of their prospects, but their upper minors are loaded with guys ready to get their chance. I think this has been about as good of an outcome from this disaster of a year as possible.
  17. chpettit19
    And now another team has watched him do what he's done here and STILL think he's worthwhile on their contending team.
  18. chpettit19
    I think the point is that it's all a risk. There's no move that carries no risk. Paying Berrios 25-30m a year doesn't mean he's going to stay healthy and keep producing. The Pohlads spending more money than the team makes doesn't mean they're going to win a World Series. The Dodgers have been spending crazy amounts for 10 years and have 1 title to show for it. The Padres have spent on anyone and everyone for years and are in 3rd place in their division. The Sox had a 200m(ish) payroll last year and didn't make the playoffs. Cubs outspend the vast majority of teams and just blew up their team. Is trading Berrios fun for any fan when it comes to this season? Absolutely not. But holding onto him in some last ditch effort to compete next year when your odds of catching the White Sox are incredibly small isn't that much fun either. He's going to the highest bidder for 2023. If the Twins are that team then he'll be back here.
  19. chpettit19
    Sent JA Happ to St Louis. Are they now the best FO ever?
  20. chpettit19
    They also really really need up the middle prospects. Unless you're convinced Lewis is the SS of the future, Austin Martin is a great get to boost the chance they have their future SS in house now and ready to debut next year sometime.
  21. chpettit19
    Martin was drafted #5 overall last year. He's started his professional career at AA and is more than holding his own. Most prospect sites have his ETA as next year. The only real question anyone has had about his bat is if he'll hit 10-15 HRs or 20-25. Probably a Lewis type defender who is borderline at SS, but can go to CF, 2B, 3B or almost anywhere else easily. He's a huge get.
  22. chpettit19
    Fair enough. I don't think he's done some out of this world job, but I don't think the MLB team would've been top 10 in ERA each of the last 2 seasons with Ryan and Co still running the show. I'm higher on the arms in the system than you, but we'll start getting our answers on them the next 2 months and next season. But I certainly don't think you're off in crazy town with your assessment.
  23. chpettit19
    Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion. I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.
  24. chpettit19
    The comment I replied to said Odorizzi was the only trade the Twins had won with Falvine. So I was just adding in the Maeda deal. Totally agree with everything there. There was talk of Baddoo possibly being taken before the rule 5, but you couldn't find a single person on the planet (nobody for the Tigers, and probably not even Akil himself) who thought he'd be putting up the numbers he is this year. Lots of revisionist history and 20/20 hindsight takes place during seasons like this. Understandably I guess. People need to blame someone.
  25. chpettit19
    Twins team ERA per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 5.49, 4.86, 4.78, 4.65, 3.58, 5.36 Twins team ERA rank amongst all MLB teams per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 29, 19, 22, 9, 4, 28 So yes, this year has been an unquestioned disaster, but let's not act like this team has had atrocious pitching the last couple years. They've had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. So he's probably identified slightly more than 0 quality pitchers. He took an awful team with an awful farm and turned them into a top 10 staff after 2 seasons. Not sure what else you wanted from the guy.
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