chpettit19

But they didn't just get draft choices back. They got 3.5 combined years of above average major league pitchers and draft picks. But that's neither here nor there in this discussion. Yes, cHawk suggested they either needed to commit to winning now or rebuilding for the future, and suggested signing Wacha helped with neither of those situations. You then suggested they didn't seem to be giving off rebuild vibes by still having Gray, Mahle, Kepler, and Polanco (and signing Gallo). You said "letting Gray and Mahle go for nothing at the end of the year after giving up what they gave up would be unforgivable and a fire able offense." Do you feel it's not acceptable for them to win the division in 2023 (maybe even a playoff game if we're lucky!) with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (not to mention Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo that you also named) playing varying degrees of important roles and then getting up to 4 draft picks for the pitchers and Gallo and still being able to trade Kepler and Polanco after the season if young guys really step up? My read is that you think the only real option right now is to go into a rebuild. And we can just agree to disagree there if that's the case. I'd actually prefer the draft picks over more prospects that don't have places to play on the current team, but will need 40-man spots this or next year. That's based on me not believing they're going to get some near MLB ready arms that project as top of the rotation guys in return for any of those guys right now. And if they can't get prospects in return that are better than the prospects they already have, and are better than top 35 picks in 2024, then I'd much prefer keeping Gray and Mahle and giving 2023 a go. They don't need more young position players (unless they could get a top end catching or CF prospect). They've got guys setup for every position (outside of C and a Buxton replacement better than a Gordon/Celestino platoon). What they need are top end arms. I don't think they can get that for Mahle or Gray this offseason. My point is there's a talent line they can, and should, draw in return for Mahle and Gray. The Twins are holding 2 above average major league pitchers and 2 top 35 picks in their hands. So #1 they need to get a return that is worthy of 1 season of an above average major league pitcher if they're going to trade either of them. They could probably get that. Then, #2, they need to get a return that is worthy of a top 35 pick on top of that. And I don't think they can get that. And, to me, the fire-able offense would be trading Mahle and/or Gray for less than a return worthy of 1 year of their service plus a top 35 pick. Especially because, unless I'm remembering incorrectly, the team receiving them in trade would be able to put their own QO on them after the year and get the top 35 pick if they trade for them before the season. Although, I could be wrong on that and maybe that was based on the new league year start date. And where their comp pick lands depends on what team they'd trade them to. They've got their prospect wave all in the majors, or on the doorstep. They sink or swim based on Kirilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and all the arms. If those guys all fail they're doomed anyways. A couple more prospects for Mahle and Gray doesn't fix that. Their wave is ready, and they need them to be successful. Then they need another wave in "4 to 7 years" like you said (I read it as sarcastic). A few more prospects of the same level as the ones they have in this wave won't make up for their internal wave failing. So I'd much rather have Gray, Mahle, Polanco, Maeda, etc. on the roster for 2023 and give it a shot. Then take the draft picks, and trade Polanco, if the prospects fail. Because the next wave won't be arriving in 2024 anyways so why would they want to add to a failed wave? PS. That post got real long, so I apologize. A little excessive there.

And? Hajjar and Petty are the only 2 guys that they gave up for either of those guys that could fill a probable opening on the Twins roster in the next few years. Steer would be starting the year in AAA for the Twins next year where the Twins will instead have Julien. And somebody on the current 40-man wouldn't be there because Steer would need a spot (there's certainly a couple pitchers I'd remove for him in a vacuum). Encarnacion-Strand would probably split his year between AA and AAA next year as a no defense corner IF/DH who'd be blocked at the big league level by Miranda, Arraez, likely Lee jumps him quickly, Julien possibly, Martin possibly, and Kirilloff. I don't see Steer or CES as massive loses in your "after giving up what they gave up" statement. Unless you think they're going to be significantly better than the other 6 guys I just listed. They gave up Petty (the 26th overall pick) for 2 years of Gray and what could be pick 31 in 2024 (depending on how much he signs for with another team). "Losing him for nothing" looks an awful lot like getting 2 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher and the chance to get a similar prospect to the one they gave up. All for a kid who'd thrown 5 innings in rookie ball at the time of the trade. Hajjar was a 2nd round pick (#61 overall) who's in A+ ball at this point. So, again, "losing him for nothing" looks to me like giving up 2 hitting prospects blocked by better hitting, and fielding, prospects and/or current major leaguers, and a low level starter with upside for 1.5 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher (granted the .5 year didn't go as hoped) and a pick that would likely be an entire round higher than where they got Hajjar.

To be fair they'd likely put a QO on both Gray and Mahle (and Gallo if he's good) at the end of the year, so they wouldn't lose them for nothing.

No worries, I just wanted to let you know ?

I agree 100% with the last paragraph. But I don't see a need for "potential veteran pitching depth" if it isn't better than the veteran pitching depth they already have. They have 3 veterans and Ryan in the rotation. If they're not bringing in someone better than Ober (and I don't see Wacha, who has his own durability issues, as being better than Ober) then I don't get the point. Is he willing to take a minor league deal with a ST invite coming off a career best season? Cuz that's the only price that seems right to me. He's not bumping anyone else out of the rotation so it's going to be hard to sell him on coming to the Twins to be a bullpen piece coming off a career year. I simply don't see the fit here. If they're looking for a 1 inning BP piece, and I think they should be, I'd much rather see Fulmer return than hope Wacha can transition to a 1 inning pen arm. Unless they can convince Wacha to be a long man in the pen, again wouldn't expect that coming off a career year, or they're going to move Ober to a long man role. And I think that'd be mismanaging Ober at this point. I just don't see a fit for this type of player. They've got a bunch of league average dudes. They need to start getting some real impact players. Only way for that this offseason is trades.

While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022: -.2/1.8 1.5/3.1 1.1/.8 .2/-.3 -.2/0 -.6/1.1 3.3/1.5 Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022: 138 165.2 84.1 126.2 34 124.2 127.1 He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.

But plenty can match the -.6 in 2021, or -.2 in 2020, or .2 in 2019, or 1.1 in 2018, or 1.5 in 2017, or -.2 in 2016.

If Nick Paparesta keeps Buxton in CF for 130 games each of the next 2 seasons the Pohlads should give him an ownership stake in the team.

2020-2022 stats in the same order of Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda... Obviously Ryan and Maeda only had 2 seasons in the last 3, but that presents a very different outlook than simply showing his 1 rebound season of 2022. If you don't like counting 2020 as a season we can go back to 2019, but that makes his ERA go up to 4.56.

No, thank you.

Sounds like Twins have deals in place with Hendry Chivilli (SS, DR) and Ariel Castro (cOF, Cuba).

For me it's not about wins/loses (although they are also very important), but more about seeing them make adjustments to failed strategies in season, and the pipeline produce. What got me really doubting them was their inability to move off Duffey and Pagan quickly (or at all in Pagan's case), or change the strategy of 1 inning relievers being marched out there for 4 or 5 innings a night. I'm not of the belief that "2 times through the order or 5 innings" is their overall plan with starters (they'd never done that in any other season, and didn't do it with Gray or Ryan until Gray couldn't stay healthy), but I do think short starts was a general game plan they had last year (to make up for lack of talented starters) that clearly wasn't working when backed up by so many short relief appearances. And they never adjusted (they started the year trying to piggy back with Winder, but after he got hurt it was all 1 inning guys). An inability, or refusal, to adjust from strategies that clearly aren't working during the 2023 season would be enough for me to fire them (or, as others point out, 1 of them depending on who's area of control that is). Or if the pipeline looks to be fully backed up and not likely to produce top end talent (pitching especially). To me it looks like they've got the ability to produce a bunch of league average talent. Can they produce above average talent? If there's some signs of that I wouldn't want to fire the people who finally setup a real development program, but we're deep enough into their tenure (and far enough away from 2020) that there needs to be real signs of an ability to produce some playoff caliber pitchers. SWR, Varland, Balazovic, Ober, etc. are a big measuring stick for the future of Falvine to me.

Yes, but you quoted my comment answering someone's question about who the thread was about. I was just letting you know I wasn't the author so if you were looking for a response from them you weren't likely to get one from quoting my comment.

I agree, Rowson is a good hitting coach. I haven't seen enough of Popkins to have a feeling on him. I don't know why you're so confident Rowson isn't "someone who's to implement some hitting philosophy." I'd guess that's based mostly on the Marlin's results not matching what you think they should. He wasn't a manager in Miami. He was the bench coach. But, either way, he had every opportunity to go work with the hitters 1 on 1 if he, and they, wanted. Charlie Manuel got all sorts of credit for those Phillies teams with Rollins, Utley, etc. hitting success even though he was the manager. All those guys give him credit for teaching them about hitting. The idea that Rowson simply couldn't impact the hitting results of that team because he was "bench coach and offensive coordinator" isn't accurate. You also don't know a ton about Rowson's hitting philosophy. I think it's pretty accepted that he had a general philosophy of being aggressive in the zone when you get your pitch. But beyond that I don't think there's a lot you know about Rowson that you don't know about Popkins. The entire league stresses power. It's the most sought after offensive tool in baseball. We've agreed that there's at least 20 hitters the Twins have had in recent seasons, or currently, that aren't simply HR type hitters. FYI the Twins were tied for 10th in Oppo% in 2022. They went the other way more often than 20 other teams, and more than league average. They weren't as pull happy as they may have seemed.

The simple reality of the plate being there isn't the problem. Again, everybody knew he had a plate in his leg. He's had it for over half a decade. It's not a long-term problem simply having a plate. I'd guess they were not aware of any long-term concerns about the plate before the season. There very well may not have been any long term concerns about the plate before the season. The concern about the plate now may be coming from insurance companies not being willing to insure past a certain number of years because of the plate and that wasn't a problem the Twins faced because it was only a 1-3 year deal. No, it doesn't. Not to mention Correa is a human being with the right to say "I'm fine, I don't need, or want, a whole physical with scans and MRIs and everything else because I feel fine." The Twins don't just get to tie him down and scan him whenever they want. He told them, and the media, that there was no pain and he was fine. He missed no games because of it. What reason did they have to do a bunch of scans then? They were already going to be able to do a physical if they agreed to terms with him. There was no reason to do it. Again, I'm not saying they were aware of the concerns! I'm literally arguing the opposite. It's not about the pitchers both getting hurt (news flash: every team in major league baseball has multiple pitchers get hurt every year). It's about the risk they were willing to take. People act like no other team acquires players who've been injured. Even recent injuries. Montas was on the IL in July last year with shoulder issues and these boards and Twitter and the entire internet was filled with Twins fans still begging the Twins to go get him. Literally the exact same injury concern on almost the exact same timeline and the Yankees traded for Montas. The point is that that risk is taken by every team all the time. It's not just the Twins being stupid.

Now you're just trying to cushion yourself from the Rowson stuff. He had no direct effect on Miami's results?! No wonder they didn't want him back. Fine, offensive coordinator. He was tasked with implementing hitting philosophies throughout the organization. Did his philosophy not include striking out less than all but 1 team in major league baseball during his tenure? He took a demotion going to Detroit. "Only an assistant?" So when they fail as well it isn't really his fault? Come on. That's not a great sales pitch for him being some great hitter whisperer who single handedly saved the Twins offense. I never said coaches have no effects on players. They absolutely do. What I'm saying is your expectations are unrealistic. You say Popkins/the Twins aren't good because they didn't fix Sano's SO problem, and claim Rowson is very good despite the fact that Sano struck out more during all 3 seasons with Rowson than he did in his 1 very short year with Popkins. My point is that Mike Trout isn't Mike Trout because he "wanted and cared to change." John Ryan Murphy wasn't John Ryan Murphy because he "didn't want or care to change." Mike Trout is more talented than John Ryan Murphy. That had nothing to do with coaching. I'm saying your balance of coaching vs talent is way off. Not to mention that getting players to "want or care to change" is a gigantic part of being a good coach. If you can't convince players what you're saying will help you're not a good coach.

Were the Twins aware that Correa had a plate in his leg prior to the season? Yes. Everyone in the baseball industry was aware of that. What does that have to do with long-term stability concerns? Did they do scans and a full workup of his ankle after he reported no pain on a slide on September 20th and they knew he'd be leaving the team in a month? No. Why in the world would the Twins have done scans of his leg after that? They knew they'd do an entirely new physical on him if they were to agree to a deal with him. They're not putting their players through unnecessary medical exams when the player isn't reporting any pain that could effect them in the current season. Who's saying the Twins weren't unware of whatever SF or NY found? I'm saying they had no reason to be looking for long-term problems before last season (they didn't have him signed long-term!), and it's entirely possible the concerns arose because of that slide, or just normal wear and tear of another season. "The Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg." That's a quote from Ken Rosenthal/Dan Hayes in an Athletic article. You can find thousands more like them in other articles about the Giants and Mets deals with Correa. The Mets new the Giants had concerns about his physical and still offered him their 12 year deal before doing their own deep dive. But the Twins offering a deal before getting to do their new physical is outrageous? The Yankees traded for a pitcher with the exact same "health issues" as Mahle at the deadline. The Yankees also allowed Tanaka to pitch with a partially torn UCL for years. The Dodgers couldn't even tell if Walker Buehler had torn his UCL before he went into surgery for his 2nd TJ in August after allowing him to pitch with elbow concerns for most of last year. Jacob deGrom hasn't stayed healthy for 2 years (15 starts in 2021, 11 in 2022) and just signed a 5 year deal for a boatload of money at the age of 34. Aaron Judge is a 30 year old, 6'7" player (they don't tend to hold up and age well) who's had over 500 PAs in a season twice since 2017 and just signed one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. The Yankees traded for Harrison Bader while he was on the IL. The Padres traded for Clevinger knowing he had elbow concerns, had those elbow issues flair up at the end of the 2020 season and brought him back for the playoffs anyways only to watch him undergo his 2nd TJ before then buying out his last 2 arbitration years knowing they'd only get 1 season of a guy coming off his 2nd TJ. And these are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. This idea that the Twins are just doing crazy (or are simply incompetent) things simply isn't true.

I didn't start this thread, was just answering the question of who was being discussed. I think the author was being purposefully vague to show Sano's career numbers over 162 games so people would think before automatically writing off such a bat. I have no opinion 1 way or the other on Sano. Was just answering someone's question on who the thread was about.

Do you agree or disagree with this timeline? Twins agree to 3 year deal with 2 player opt outs with Correa. Twins do physical before signing deal and feel there's nothing in the physical to lead them to believe he was a ticking timebomb about to explode during the 2022 MLB season. Correa slides and feels a vibration in the plate in his leg. Correa opts out after 1 season of 3 year deal like everyone thinking rationally knew he would. Twins offer Correa 10/285. Correa agrees to 13 year deal with the Giants. Correa takes new physical. Giants have hesitations. Correa agrees to 12 year deal with Mets. Mets review new physical and have concerns. Today. That's my understanding of how things have gone. And in there the Twins were looking at his physical assessing the likelihood of him being hurt during the 2022 season because they knew with 100% certainty that he was opting out unless he had some sort of major injury or completely forgot how to play baseball. I've even been generous enough to give you the 2 extra years and say they were concerned about 3 years, when we all knew from the day he signed that they had 1 year with him. I don't think it's just "worst possible light," I think it's confirmation bias with no standing in reality. We're not going to agree on this, though. So no real point in me continuing to point out the gigantic gap in years, and the entire season he played after the Twins physical that included him commenting on an uncomfortable feeling he had in the part of his body teams are now concerned about.

The Athletic is great, I think you'll find that subscription well worth the money. Rowson was the Twins hitting coach from 2017-2019, Marlins bench coach and hitting instructor from 2020 through 2022. The K% and league ranks of his offenses are as folllows: 2017- 21.4% 15th in baseball 2018- 21.6% 9th in baseball 2019- 20.9% 4th in baseball 2020- 24.8% 22nd in baseball 2021- 26.2% 29th in baseball 2022- 24.0% 26th in baseball As a comparison the Twins were at 22.1% and 12th in baseball in K% in 2022 under Popkins (were 19th and 14th in 2020 and 2021 before Popkins arrived). I don't say that to show that Popkins is the answer, or better than Rowson, or anything like that. Just pointing out that the guy you think had individualized plans that allowed for the offense to improve it's SO problem went to Florida and watched his team strikeout more than just about anybody in baseball (the Marlins were actually tied for 29th in baseball in K% over the 3 years he was there). We'll see what Detroit does this year. I think you're drawing conclusions that can't be drawn. Rowson wasn't able to help anyone on the Marlins with their strikeout problems. He didn't help Sano with his strikeout problem (Sano struck out 35.3% of the time in 2022 small sample, he was at 35.8, 38.5, and 36.2% under Rowson). I just think you're making connections that can't be made. Hitting coaches aren't magicians. They can't make bad hitters suddenly good.

Forced vs Stressed isn't what I'm getting at. I'm suggesting they aren't "stressing" that to everyone and having some guys listen and some guys not. I'm saying your impression of what the coaching looks like is wrong. If you think the 19 guys we've mentioned to this point have simply ignored coaching and are doing better because of it you're wrong. That isn't what's happening. https://theathletic.com/3333711/2022/05/26/david-popkins-twins-hitting-coach/ First 2 paragraphs of this article (in case you don't have an Athletic account): "When they hired him last November, the Twins wanted hitting coach David Popkins to provide new ideas in what they believe to be an ever-changing landscape. Following a historically slow start to the 2022 season, Twins hitters appear to like the message they’re hearing from Popkins, 32. Whether it’s the new practice techniques he implemented, how he breaks down analytical information and scouting reports or the individually tailored plans he provided, Popkins has made a strong first impression on Twins hitters." The bold was added by me. But what I'm saying is that the idea that the Twins are trying to coach every hitter to be pull and lift the ball hitters and it's leading to SOs & FOs is incorrect. That is not what is happening.

Oh my goodness. It's not nitpicks, I'm asking you what you think good depth looks like. How do we get to the point where they have good depth? Do you want more FAs signed? Do you think they need to improve the development program because the quality of their prospects isn't good enough? The Dodgers have 9 starters on their 40-man roster right now. 1 of them is Walker Buehler who had TJ for 2nd time last August so he's out for the year. Their other 8 are Kershaw, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Syndergaard, Pepiot, Grove and Jackson. Grove is a 26 year old with 29.1 ML innings, a 4.60 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. Jackson is a 26 year old with 21.1 ML innings (all out of the pen despite being a starter in the minors), a 2.11 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. Pepiot is a 25 year old with 36.1 ML innings, a 3.47 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP. Is that 6-8 better than the Twins? Why or why not?

That's not at all what I asked. I asked you what you think the 9th best starting pitcher option on "good teams" looks like. Sands was the one you singled out as someone "good teams don't have in the mix" because he's a "AAAA" player. So I'm asking you what you think good teams have in that spot instead. If you want to expand it to the other guys that I simply listed to setup the question based on how you listed them, then do you think the good teams are sitting on established vets at the 6 and 7 spots instead of 2 prospects who've already gotten their feet wet and held their own? What do you think the 8 and 9 spots look like on the "good teams?" Are they better than AAAA players? Do you expect teams to be 4 deep on top prospects ready to break in? I'm not trying to be confrontational at all. These forums are for discussion. I'm trying to have a discussion.

Another 3 teams over 175 million. That's 17 teams over 175 million.

Statements like the one I bolded always fascinate me. I assume you're counting (in some order) Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober as the starting rotation going into the year. You then list SWR and Varland. Then Winder and Sands. So you have Sands as the 9th guy in the Twins starting pitcher pecking order. What sort of pitchers do you think "good teams" have as their 9th guy? I'm not trying to be sarcastic or anything. I truly want to know what sort of guys you picture the good teams having as their 9th best starting pitcher option entering a year. For the record, I agree with the general premise that the names beyond SWR and Varland aren't overly inspiring after Winder struggled to stay healthy (I think he's super talented, and could be a #2 if he'd stay healthy) and Balazovic completely fell apart. I don't even think they picture Henriquez or Sands as long-term starters. But I'm curious what you picture quality depth looking like. (Side note: I'd actually argue Paddack should be ahead of Sands in the pecking order as I expect him back before the trade deadline, and if they're relying on their 9th best starter to be making consistent starts by the end of July they're doomed anyways.)