chpettit19

I know these articles are queued up in advance, and released at certain times despite having been written well in advance, but nearly every article released in the last week has had a free agent rumor in it that had already been completed. Rodon being the example here. Getting to be a bit ridiculous at this point. I wouldn't think it's too hard to go back and take those things out after they happen. It's not like there wasn't plenty of time to edit this article since Rodon was off the board on Thursday.

Do walks not count? Aren't people on these boards during every game complaining that the Twins don't work the count, walk, or get on base enough? His OPS in Texas was .833 for his 6+ seasons, and over 2000 PAs, there. That would've put him 20th in baseball in 2022, tied with Xander Bogaerts who just got significantly more than $11 million. Maybe top 20 isn't "elite," but it feels awfully close. But, again, for the 1 millionth time, I'm not suggesting Joey Gallo is going to come in and be the 20th best hitter in baseball in 2023. I'm simply pointing out that when he was in Texas he showed more upside than any bat in the Twins lineup not named Buxton. Jorge Polanco has a career OPS of .779. .833 is slightly higher than that, no? In fact, Polanco only OPS'd above .833 1 time in his career (2019). He's a frustrating guy to watch with the Ks and BA. No doubt. Not a huge fan of that. But suggesting that he has no upside is ignoring a whole lot of previous upside. He was awful in NY and LA. Is that because he's fallen off a cliff and is Chris Davis now? Or is that because he couldn't handle the pressure there? The former means this is going to be an awful signing and he's hopefully DFA'd by June. The latter means he's at least useful during 1 regular season, and could possibly then be flipped at the deadline if he's back to OPSing .800+. If you care about how someone gets their OPS you may not like him because of the lack of BA. If all you care about is that they get their OPS then .833 should be a little intriguing.

Thus I don't love the move. I've said over and over that I don't love the move. It's not a move that I would've made. I just think the reactions here are way more negative than they should be. Kepler's 2.1 bWAR is all defense. And defensive stats aren't something I care about because they're super unreliable. As shown a few comments up where another poster points out how low Gallo's OAA was during the 2016-2022 stretch and I counter with him being much better than Kepler in the same stretch according to the fielding bible. I don't want Kepler or Gallo. But I also don't want the jobs just handed to the young guys who haven't been great when they were healthy (Larnach has a ton to prove still. Like if he can hit off speed pitches at all, that wasn't a health thing), and Wallner's career ceiling is Gallo-esque, but I'm not banking on him jumping straight into the majors and doing that as a rookie who the league now has some tape on and will have a gameplan for him to start the year. Yes, a right handed bat would've been much better. Unfortunately there's not a whole lot of that left. It's why I was so upset to see the Twins wasted 2 months offering Correa 285 when they should've moved on and signed realistic targets like Mitch Haniger. I'm not telling people to like the move. I've said over and over that I don't love it. I'm just saying we're seeing the same overreaction that we do to almost every individual move. People freaked out like this over Beckham signing a minor league deal last year. Joey Gallo isn't the answer. I've said that over and over. This isn't some huge win. I graded it a C in the poll that's up. It's not a needle mover either direction. He's a nice insurance piece for after they trade Kepler which has felt like a foregone conclusion for weeks. It's not outrageous to think he's one of the guys who struggles under the bright lights of NY and LA (which is why I'm glad it's a 1 year deal, because that means he's probably not great in the playoffs and I don't want him around as part of the big picture plan) and will be back closer to his Texas self now that he's in a low/no-pressure situation. Comparing Gallo's salary to his pre-arb and arb years is disingenuous. Those weren't market rates. I said before he signed yesterday that I'd be open to bringing him in for less than 10 million if they traded Kepler. So 11 is higher than I'd like. But Bellinger has been nearly unplayable for 2 years in LA and he just got 17.5 guaranteed. This is the price of doing business on the open market. We need to stop being shocked that it costs more to sign free agents. That's just how it works.

Fielding Bible has Gallo at 42 DRS and Kepler at 48 since 2016. And that's with Kepler having 6700 innings to Gallo's 4116. Gallo with an OF Arm score of 24 to Kepler's 4. Gallo has 2 gold gloves if you care about such things. Gallo has long been considered an elite defender with an elite arm. He's every bit the defender Kepler is.

Oh, he's towards the front of their depth. Like 2nd best outfielder they have. He was brutal in NY and LA. No doubt about it. But he was a star in Texas. I don't love the move. My entire point is that it's crazy that so many people are acting like Gallo has no upside and we should just be clearing the way for the young players while ignoring the real possibility that the young players have no upside. I get it, the Ks are brutal. Not fun to watch. But he's a better defender than every one of the young guys, and it's not particularly close. He's shown, in 2 of the last 3 full seasons, that he can be an elite bat, even with the Ks. That's 2 more seasons than all the young guys combined have shown. Larnach and Kirilloff have had 2 seasons to show they can stay healthy and produce. They've failed both times (not blaming them, but let's not stick our heads in the sand and act like they're more than they are right now). Gordon has had 2 years to stay healthy and produce, and he's done it for half a year. Wallner is a 25 year old rookie who's a terrible defender, and his offensive ceiling is a poor man's Joey Gallo. Kepler is just a different version of Gallo. Elite defender with severely flawed bat (just different flaws). So, again, I don't love the move. It doesn't make them contenders suddenly. All I'm doing is trying to provide a little perspective on the situation. Yes, he was brutal last year, but so was Bellinger (he's actually been brutal for 2 years), and he got 17.5 million (minimum when you account for the 5.5 buyout). People need to get over their sticker shock. Either accept that free agents are more expensive than you'd like or stop asking for free agents to be signed. Free agents are expensive. The young guys don't deserve jobs being handed to them (unless you're asking for a rebuild, in which case you should be asking for trades of all the 1 year contract veterans). Joey Gallo is a 2 time all star and 2 time gold glove winner in 2 of the last 3 full seasons. None of that means we should be jumping for joy or the offseason is suddenly great, but suggesting it's unthinkable to pay someone with his proven upside 11 million for 1 year doesn't make sense to me. He's been a star in this league before. Something very few other guys on the roster can say.

Last deadline, as in trade deadline. They felt like they had a plan with bringing in arms and executed it pretty well, in my opinion. I was hoping that would then bleed into this offseason.

bWAR 2020- 1.6, 2021- 4.7 fWAR 2020- 1, 2021- 4.2

5 WAR from Kepler?! His career best year was 4. He topped 3 one other time. He's a 2 WAR player, but you think a handful of ground balls sneaking through the right side is going to make him a 5 WAR player?! That's quite the stretch.

Soft contact, leading to lots of pop ups to the outfield or grounders to second, is what the batted ball data says Kepler's problem is.

They've tried biting the bullet for 2 years now and it hasn't worked. That's why they still have so many holes on the roster. Had Larnach stayed healthy and produced in 2021 there'd be no thought of Gallo. Or if Larnach had stayed healthy and produced in 2022 there'd be no thought of Gallo. But he didn't. Either year. How many years are we biting this bullet and seeing what Larnach can do to stay healthy and produce? Again, I don't like the deal and it doesn't at all make this offseason successful. Simply pointing out that Gallo is a multi-time all star and gold glove winner and people are acting like the Twins just signed one of us. He's not a problem solver. He's simply more depth. He better not be their last move. But he's better than plenty of guys on the 40-man so the team is better today than it was yesterday. Projections are trash. I've looked at them. The Twins aren't hopping on fangraphs and saying "well dang, Gallo is only projected for 1.2 WAR this year, waste of time."

I don't care about projections. They're trash. I didn't say it was a good deal, or one they should've done. Simply pointed out that Gallo has had a better career than Kepler in the same number of years. They're not "blocking" the youth because the youth can't stay on the field. Larnach isn't blocked by anyone but himself and his inability to play for more than 2 months at a time. Same with Kirilloff. Wallner is incredibly unproven, and a terrible defender. If Gallo is the best player they're bringing in they shouldn't be bringing in outside guys. But we also need to stop acting like the young players on the Twins 40-man have earned starting spots on a major league team. They haven't. Hoping on the youth is no better than hoping on Gallo bouncing back. He's at least shown he's physically capable of being an elite major league hitter. I wouldn't want to bet on him getting back to his 2019 or 2021 self, but at least he had a 2019 and 2021 self while Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon haven't even been close. And none are as good defensively as him. I don't like the move, but let's stop acting like these young guys are more than they are to this point. Gallo is a 2 time all star and gold glove winner in the last 3 full seasons. The youth can only hope to achieve those things.

To be fair, he is the defender Kepler is. It's a wash defensively. He's elite. It's probably a wash offensively as well assuming he bounces back at all. Career numbers are on Gallo's side, but mostly just because his ups were higher. Both debuted in 2015. Gallo with .199/.325/.469/.794 slash line. Kepler .232/.317/.427/.744. Kepler for Gallo swap is pretty neutral overall, really.

So he's due for another great one? Right?

That would be my guess. Hopefully it's Kepler that gets moved and not any of the young guys.

It's definitely a bounce back play. Hoping he returns to his Texas numbers. He was terrible in NY and LA so maybe they're hoping less pressure means he's the 138 OPS+ guy he was in Texas in 2021 before they traded him and he cratered. His glove plays. But this isn't the type of moves they should've been making with all the money they have. Bounce backs shouldn't have been the plan this offseason.

Have to assume it means trades are coming. Not thrilled with the $11 million price tag, and they better make way more, and better, moves than this.

I hope you're sitting down, because Jeff Passan is reporting the Twins are signing Gallo to a 1 year, $11 million deal.

I'd be absolutely shocked if it were Lee. Not that he doesn't potentially have the talent, or that it wouldn't be the right move, to be in the majors in less than a calendar year after he was drafted, but that'd be lightning fast. We see some college arms show up in the bigs as relievers crazy fast, but even the elite college bats tend to take a little longer than that. I could be forgetting someone, but I don't believe any 2021 drafted bats have reached the majors yet. Torkelson made his debut last year after being picked in 2020, but that didn't go great. Maybe there's someone else from the 2020 draft, but I'm not thinking of them right now. I'm super high on both Lewis and Lee and expect them to be the left side of the infield starting in 2024 sometime, but Lee making the majors before the draft, or even the trade deadline, would be incredible. Not sure the Twins have the aggressiveness in them to make that happen. AA to start and he's more likely moving to AAA around the time Lewis is returning and hitting the major league field. All my money would be on Lewis in this one.

I mean that's the general idea with everyone they bring in. I think we want them all to produce ALOT. Again, my stance wasn't that they should be looking at Gallo as a big signing, or even the best guy available. All I said was that if they trade Kepler and replace him with Gallo for less than $10 million it'd be a net positive move since they would've gotten something for Kepler and Gallo for Kepler is basically a wash of elite defenders with severely flawed bats. That's all. You're the one who decided it'd be a bad signing no matter what unless he produced like a top 10 bat in baseball.

You'd be ok with it? There were exactly 7 major league hitters who hit 35 homeruns and over .230 last year. You'd be ok with him being 1 of 8 guys in all of baseball to do that? Even if you drop it down to 30 homeruns there were 18 guys in all of baseball to do it. Of the 21 guys to hit 30 homeruns last year (that's correct, only 21 guys in baseball hit 30 bombs) only 13 guys hit over .240. 11 guys with 30 homeruns and hit over .250. Gallo's career OBP is .325. Of those 21 hitters with 30 homers last year, only 15 of them had an OBP over .325. Just some numbers I found interesting in comparison to the type of hitter you expect Gallo to be just to be "ok with it." That doesn't even take into account his elite outfield defense.

Yes, they do. The Twins were better, in relation to the rest of the league, at getting on base last year than they were at slugging. So maybe someone with power would actually be the bigger improvement on the offense.

You can say it as many times as you want, but I can disagree with your stance. They also don't need another no power bat in the order like Benintendi. I wouldn't be upset with Benintendi, but he's also likely to get a longer term deal than Gallo as Gallo could use a pillow contract to try to gain some value back. The Twins need whatever kind of offense they can get. You can prefer batting average. Nothing wrong with that. I didn't say they should be knocking the door down to get Gallo. I said if they can trade Kepler and replace him with Gallo it's a net positive. Didn't say it should be plan A. Just said it wouldn't be the worst move in the world. He's an elite defender and has elite power. He's a useful player. Just not a huge difference maker. You're allowed to not like him, though. But if Benintendi is your big move I'm not impressed either.

If they can move Kepler for anything useful and bring in Gallo for Kepler's salary or lower I wouldn't actually mind that. Replace 1 elite defender with another while bringing in whatever you can get for Kepler. That's a net positive. Certainly wouldn't make the offseason a win, though. And I expect Gallo wouldn't be happy to sign for less than 10 million so he's a no for me. But for less than 10 million I'd be ok with it. What else they going to spend their money on?

Forgot about him. They realistically probably need to add 10 wins to their record on top of the wins they'll make up simply by being healthier. 10 is a lot.

I tend to be more on the "pocket protector" side of fans, but the following paragraph is inaccurate: "The Pohlads didn't "short-change" Correa. They didn't "lowball him." They made him a fair offer based on his age and production. The offer was $285 million over ten years, more per year than the Giants offer but three years shorter. There is nothing the Pohlads did differently than what most fans expected. They threw everything at Correa, minus the kitchen sink." The Pohlads/FO/whoever you want to say 100% did lowball Correa. The AAV means nothing. The fans expecting the Twins to not have the high offer means nothing. It feeling like a "fair offer" means nothing. Correa got $350 million. The Twins (reportedly) offered him $285 million. 285 being a lot for the Twins doesn't mean it isn't a lowball offer. Comparing Correa to the other SSs of his talent level made it quite clear that 285 had no realistic chance of getting it done. Lindor at 341 and Seager at 325 made it unrealistic. They were $65 million dollars short. Thus a lowball offer. Now that doesn't mean it's a bad thing they didn't offer him more. It doesn't make it a bad thing they didn't sign him. It can be both a lowball offer and a good thing they didn't sign him. I'm not upset the Twins didn't sign Correa (although I would've liked it, and would've been fine with 10/350 if that's what it took). But I am upset that they seemingly wasted time and effort trying to sign him for a lowball offer while allowing realistic targets to sign elsewhere and leaving themselves with very few free agents worthy of signing in an attempt to jump a team from 70 some wins to 90 some. The schedule evens out more next year. Yes, they're still in the central and face those teams a lot, but not as much. And more teams get to beat up on the central, and bad teams in general, now instead of having to battle their elite division foes as much. That means the good teams are likely going to win more while the bad teams will likely lose more. The Twins will, in all likelihood, have a higher win total to reach if they want a wild card spot moving forward. They've won 70 some games the last 2 years while facing far more weak opponents throughout the season due to their division, and now they're going to be playing a harder schedule so they need to improve upon the last 2 teams simply to still win 70 some games. I think we all want them to win significantly more than 70 some games. So they've got to do even more to jump up into the 90 win range I think we all want. My problem is that they wasted a whole lot of time going after someone they should have know they couldn't get for their lowball offer while not improving the team in any drastic way. Farmer and Vazquez are good enough to maybe keep them in the 70 win range. They're certainly not significant improvements. Especially when you factor in the loss of Correa. Do they even balance him out? I know the first response of many will be "if they would've stayed healthy," and I agree they were better than a 78 win team last year with better health, but they weren't a 90 win team even with better help. They were a mid-80s win team with better health. Let's say 85 wins. Then they lost a 4 or 5 win player in Correa. I'll only take 3 losses off for that and they're at 82 wins. Let's go with another 4 losses added for the change in schedule (I'm trying to be conservative here and actually expect it to be more like 7 or 8 more losses) and we're down to 78 wins. Farmer and Vazquez make up for those 4 losses maybe? Back to 82 wins assuming the entire roster of injury prone players suddenly have improved health all for the same season. Generally speaking I use 90 wins as the cutoff for any team with a real shot at competing in the playoffs. How do they find 8 more wins? That's my problem with this offseason. They've put themselves in a really tough spot of needing to find 8 more wins while watching a lot of players who would've helped with that sign elsewhere because they were set on the idea that they could get Correa for $285 million when they should've known that was a lowball offer and was never going to cut it. PS sorry for the long rant there.