chpettit19

Yeah, that looks like a big fastball with lagging offspeed stuff which reinforces my stance that he's got a long ways to go before he's a frontline guy. Actually more of a reliever profile if you ask me. I think he can stick as a starter, but if he's their big get from Polanco and a top 5 or 6 system prospect (Raya), plus a couple other pieces I'm going to be disappointed while hoping he proves me wrong.

Do you think they're going to actually spend on pitching? Isn't it more likely they trade for an affordable guy like they've done with Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, and Lopez? If they can't afford to add a top 4 hitter to their lineup for 10-15 mil while trading at least one 10 mil veteran (don't we all assume Polanco, Kepler, and/or Vazquez are/is gone?), and not really spending on pitching they're taking a step back next year and better watch out for Cleveland and Detroit taking the division.

But this thread is about Martin and his ability to overtake Gordon and Castro in part. And his best OPS in the minors is .796. My point is that if Gordon's numbers mean we shouldn't trust him then 24 year old Austin Martin who's never put up better numbers than Gordon shouldn't be someone we're saying should be counted on.

I think 21-60 is a really big range, but a lot of this is just semantics. It's hard to really know what everyone means by ace, or #1 pitcher, or any of the numbers we assign to pitchers. I think we probably mostly agree here, it's just that I define the numbers differently than you. Really I just care about legit playoff starters who you start as many games as you can (extra off days changes things), guys you're ok starting playoff games here and there, and guys you really don't want starting playoff games. The numbers we assign probably make that more complicated, but I think we agree that it's about getting guys you're happy to give the ball to in October.

Interesting, cuz I'd actually call that a slight overpay by the Twins. I don't think Woo is a frontline guy. I think he'd just be another 3-5 guy like the Twins already have a bunch of. But I know others are higher on Woo than I am.

There were only 34 pitchers in baseball who threw 150+ innings and had an ERA under 4 last year. If we put the cutoff at 3.70 or lower (I think that'd count as mid-3 ERA) you're down to 26. I think you're describing pretty close to a #1 while saying they're a #2 or 3. As to the original post, I think a lot of this comes down to what you think Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland are, or are likely to be. I think Paddack is the most talented of those 4 so he's the guy you have to hope becomes a legit playoff caliber starter. I don't think any of the other 3 are likely to be better than a #3 or 4 guy in a playoff rotation. If that's the case I think there's a real need to add someone who's a more sure thing above those 4 guys to partner with Lopez as guys you feel comfortable going into seasons with as guys who can start games 1 and 2 of a playoff series. Then you're looking at having the rest of those guys fight it out to be the 3 and 4 guys in your playoff rotation while being able to put someone like Varland in the pen where he may be an even better weapon moving forward as the depth guys continue to push for rotation spots. I like that there's finally some guys who look like legit MLB pitchers here, and on their way (hopefully soon). But I don't know that I see quality playoff pitchers in that bunch, and that needs to start being the standard. We've built the floor, and now it's time to raise the ceiling.

I'm surprised so many people think there's no room for Rhys Hoskins in this lineup. The Twins couldn't use a 125 OPS+ bat? He's not the elite guy I'd prefer, but on a 1 year deal between 10-15 mil he'd be very useful. Julien and Jeffers were the only 2 qualified hitters the Twins had last year who topped a 125 OPS+. Julien is now set to see if he can make the adjustments to the adjustments in his sophomore year. Some in this very thread think Miranda is toast because of his injury plagued sophomore season so I'd think they're not sold on Julien being a 130 OPS+ guy for sure yet. Lewis and Wallner can be added as guys who topped 125 OPS+, but they played 58 and 76 games respectively. If you're convinced they're proven as 150 and 139 OPS+ guys, cool, 90+ wins here we come! Houston already exploited Wallner's holes in the playoffs so he's really going to have to show he can make the adjustment to the adjustment next year. Hoskins 111 OPS+ in 2019 was his career low. Otherwise he's pretty much guaranteed to be 125 or higher. You guys have way more faith in this offense than I do if you think Hoskins isn't worth a shot on a 1 year deal. As for the injury, Lewis had the same injury twice and turned out alright. It's not like Hoskins has been relying on his pure athleticism for his success. And he was shown during the playoffs last year running the bases and taking BP full speed. The knee surgery from last spring training shouldn't be a concern anymore. If the Twins can get Hoskins, they absolutely should. I'd prefer better, but he's still an improvement on this lineup.

I'm not arguing that Gordon should, or would, be the opening day CFer. But he'd get a roster spot over Martin if he's on the 40-man on opening day. Martin is an "in case of emergency break glass" situation, too, if he's the opening day CFer. Handing guys who have never seen a major league pitch an opening day job when you're trying to contend is not a move that you make if you can avoid it. Gordon, Castro, Farmer, and Vazquez are the Twins bench right now. Martin isn't taking any of their jobs on opening day if they're all still around by then. And none of them, including Martin, should be handed the starting CF job if Buxton can't do it. But Martin is below Buxton, Castro, and Gordon because, whether anyone likes it or not, options play a role in who gets jobs. I've never been a big Gordon fan. He swings way too much. But his best season at the plate was better than Castro's season last year and everyone seems to love Castro. Castro brings better defense and speed, but some people are talking about him being an option as the opening day CFer. A 111 OPS+ in 136 games (Gordon in 2022) isn't nothing. That's a legit major leaguer, even if he's better served as a utility guy. Just like Jose Miranda's 114 OPS+ in 125 games that year wasn't nothing. Fans are way to year to year on things. Gordon played 34 games last year, and Miranda played 40, but people have decided neither is useful anymore. But they're also set on Lewis, Julien, and Wallner being established despite none of them playing as many games as Gordon or Miranda did in their successful years. And for Martin vs Gordon, even outside the options situation with Gordon, there is certainly a case to be made for Gordon. Gordon had an .801 OPS in AAA at the age of 23 in 70 games. Austin Martin at the age of 24 had a .791 OPS in 59 games. And, as mentioned, Gordon had a 111 OPS+ in 136 games in the majors in 2022. I don't care if Gordon is sent packing today, but he's got every bit the resume Martin has. Martin doesn't K like Gordon, but he also has little power and not a great throwing arm for the outfield. And CF isn't a natural position for him either.

I think a Kepler trade would mean they're handing Larnach a starting job, assuming Kepler is dealt for pitching or prospects and the rest of the 40-man stays as is, and Martin is still the first guy in line. Depending on who's replaced early in 2024, Larnach may actually be ahead of Martin in line for the spot. If Wallner or Kepler are the ones being replaced I'd bet Larnach gets the call before Martin, unless their performances are severely different. I don't think this regime is really open to handing any rookie who hasn't debuted yet a starting job out of camp. Miranda's 2021 season in the minors was better than anything Martin's ever done, and he wasn't handed a starting job opening day 2022. I actually don't mind that strategy when you're trying to contend. Handing opening day jobs to kids who've never seen a major league pitch is a really big gamble. My problem with their strategy is the end of year rookie usage, not the start of year usage. Why didn't Miranda get his feet wet at the end of 2021 in a season the team lost 89 games? Why was Jordan Luplow on the Twins September roster last year instead of Martin? I'd like to see them start getting guys who are likely to debut the next season a little taste in September. Especially when the season is either lost, or the division is wrapped up like 2021 and 2023.

I don't know what it'll end up actually being, but I'd guess their main target in trade will be a good, not great "veteran" with 2+ years remaining on their deal that they think can take a step forward and then they'll either try to extend them or get a QO worthy last season out of them. Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, Lopez style. If they strike out on that plan they'll bring in a cheap, backend starter bounce back candidate and we'll all be underwhelmed or mad.

I hope he can come up and claim a starting spot at some point, but I don't at all expect it to be opening day. I think our best hope, as of today with the current 40-man situation, is that Martin is the position player equivalent of Ober in 2023. He has a great spring and everyone is clamoring for him to go north with the big club, but he's sent to AAA as the first guy called when there's an injury. And I think that's probably the best way to manage the roster. Then he can be the spark when he comes up and starts slashing the ball all over the field from the 9 hole so Julien and Lewis can drive him in from the top of the order and we can really start seeing the future come into view!

Until Martin gets hurt or fails in his first go and then you're to the guy who would've been even further below. Martin is a marginal player at this point. We can be as excited as we want for him, but it doesn't mean he's guaranteed to ever succeed in the majors. Dropping even marginal players like Gordon to hand completely untested players like Martin opening day jobs is not good roster management. Unless Gordon looks completely lost in spring he's getting the job over Martin.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Gordon is out of options, so if he's in the org on opening day I'm pretty sure Martin isn't taking his spot as they won't sacrifice the depth for nothing in return for Gordon. Gordon and Castro definitely have spots locked up over Martin if they're in the org come opening day. Unless Gordon is simply brutal in ST. I've seen Martin play a number of times and I'm interested to see what his sprint speeds come in at. He steals a lot of bases, but, to me, it looks like he does it more off of good reads and general athleticism over pure speed. He's a good athlete, but I don't think he's as fast as Castro, and probably more of a Gordon type when it comes to wheels. But that's just eye test watching him play in St Paul and on some milb broadcasts. Martin was my favorite player in the draft his year, and I was stoked when we got him in the Berrios deal. I was hoping the power would come along a little more like the Twins were, but if he hits for the kind of power we were seeing at the end of 2023 it'll be enough to make him a heck of a player. I'm excited to see him in 2024, but, as of today, I don't expect we see him opening day. If he's hitting 9 hole in front of Julien by the all star break I think it'll be a very good sign. And I do expect him to be a 9 hole guy to start his career. I'll be pretty surprised if we see a bunch of games with Martin and Julien at the top of the lineup in 2024. More likely the 9-1 turn. And I think that'll be a great setup.

Totally not Ohtani's job to do what the league wants. I'm totally fine with him doing whatever he can to get whatever privacy he can. Guy is an international superstar and I'm sure any bit of privacy is like water in the desert to him. An interesting thing that came of it is that he got a PR problem anyways. Don't think his standing in Canada is great right now. He did everything he could to keep it private and the media gave him a PR problem anyways. Roberts broke the rule about talking about Ohtani meetings anyways. Cohen came out and talked about how Ohtani's people never called him and it's been taken by plenty in NY to mean he doesn't like NY so he's got a NY problem now, too. I don't know how much of baseball's problem in this area is the league office, the star players being private, star players not speaking english as their native language and living in other countries during the off-season, a combination of all 3, or something completely different. But "the hot stove" hasn't been hot for years. And it costs the league revenue. I have no idea how much, but it's not nothing. Don't know how to fix it, and have no problem with Ohtani wanting to be private or Trout fighting "the face of the league" stuff, or any of it. But it's not great for the league. The league needs another Griffey Jr who can draw in non-baseball fans to the game. Ohtani could (should?) be that kind of attraction. But it doesn't seem to be who he is, and there's nothing wrong with that. Here's to hoping Royce Lewis turns into a national star this year and we can have "the face of the league" rocking a Twins jersey!

Position players who received QOs in 2022 (WAR in parenthesis): Accepted: Joc Pederson (1.3) Rejected: Dansby Swanson (5.7) Willson Contreras (3.9) Trea Turner (4.9) Xander Bogaerts (5.9) Re-signed with same team: Brandon Nimmo (5.1) Anthony Rizzo (2.3) Aaron Judge (10.6) So Joc Pederson who had an OPS+ of 146, and Anthony Rizzo who re-signed with the yanks on a deal I bet they regret (17m per for 2 years) had WARs at, or below, the typical Kepler year. Everyone else was basically at his career best year (3.9 vs 4) or better. Position players who received QOs in 2023 (WAR in parenthesis): Rejected: Shohei Ohtani (6.0- offense only) Cody Bellinger (4.4) Matt Chapman (4.4) So all 3 with more WAR than Kepler has ever had in a single season. 2-3 WAR players don't get QOs unless you're OPS+ing 145+ (and those guys accept them) or you re-sign with the Yankees for less per year than the QO. Teoscar with his 2.1 is not a shock at all that he didn't get a QO. And Kepler putting up his typical year won't get one either. But I hope you're right and he is his 2nd half self for the full year and competes for an MVP on a $10M salary so we can give him a QO next year. But that isn't likely at all.

The NFL and NBA hold their drafts, and draft lottery in the NBA's case, during their offseasons. They have specific deadlines/timelines for free agency and contracts. They have a very specifically structured calendar to draw in as many fans, and drive as many clicks, as possible throughout the year. It keeps them in the national media headlines all year long. It's far better for their business than MLB who does their lottery on their own network, holds their draft mid-season (on their own network), and has 4 months where fans don't ever have a time to really lock in on their sport so it dies in the national media headlines. Ohtani could've change that. Not his job to, but I'd bet the people in the league offices are pretty pissed he's choosing to do things this way. Those "coverage overlords" pay a pretty penny for these things. If not having coverage overlords is going to be a good thing for baseball I'm glad the Twins are at the front end of it and am excited to see these payrolls explode moving forward!

LeBron also got paid for that. It helped him personally a ton. These guys get dragged across the coals every time they do anything in the age of the internet. There's no winning the PR war as a professional athlete. NBA fans HATED it, and still tuned in. Just like people hate the Kardashians, but still tune in and have made them into billionaires. It's absolutely not on the players to fix the league's problem. Not saying it is. And that's why I said I 90%. But the league doing better also means the players do better. All we hear about these days in Twins Territory is how the TV model has died and now the Twins are screwed, but don't be mad at the Pohlads because other teams are going to be screwed and slash payroll, too. If that's actually true then it becomes a player's problem every bit as much as the league's problem because if revenues actually do go down because Ohtani and Trout and Betts and Freeman and so many other stars in baseball prefer to stay private then salaries go down. I have absolutely no problem with Ohtani wanting to have this be private. And it's going to be fascinating to see if he picks the Dodgers after Roberts made things public. But Olney isn't totally off base about this being bad for the league. It is. Not Ohtani's job to fix that by any means, but it is bad for baseball. Both things can be true.

What if I told you he was a 2 WAR player for the 3 seasons before that? You're expecting MLB teams to ignore who he was from 2020 through the first half of 2023 and just go with who he was for half of 2023. That is not realistic. I mean, if they can get somebody to offer a package that's worth an MVP candidate they should absolutely accept that deal. But suggesting that that's a likely outcome is overvaluing him. There were 9 guys in baseball who had 6 WAR last year. 23 with 5 WAR. Do you think Max Kepler is likely to be a top 25 position player in baseball in 2024? Because that's what you're describing. 43 position players had 4 WAR. Is he a top 50 position player in baseball? I don't think any team in baseball thinks that. If that's the case the Twins should be trying to extend him for a few more years, and not trade him. Teoscar Hernandez likely would've accepted a QO and Seattle didn't want to pay him 20M for 2024. Like the Twins likely won't want to pay Kepler 21M for 2025. What about the FA class last year? Was that "extremely weak" because there were only 14 QOs last year. 2 of which were accepted. Teoscar Hernandez had 2.1 WAR this year. 131st amongst position players. He's seen a steady decline in his performance and is now getting into his 30s. I don't know why a team would want to pay that player 20M.

While I 90% agree with this idea about the secrecy of the Ohtani situation, baseball also has an offseason problem. They'll never be football who controls the headlines all year long, but "the hot stove" has become the "freezing stove with a couple flair ups here and there." Ohtani presented a very unique opportunity to grow excitement in the baseball offseason which would've been great for the sport as a whole. But I do agree that it's entirely his right to do things as quietly as he'd like and it's none of our business what's going on. But it's unfortunate for the sport as a whole that they can't drive more excitement between November and March/April.

Washington actually got selected for the 1st and 2nd picks in the lottery, but will be picking 10th. As a revenue sharing payer they can't be in the lottery (top 6 picks) in back to back years so they got bumped down.

I don't know that I agree with this. Kepler's never been a 5 WAR player, let alone a 6 WAR player, so I'm not sure how the Twins would be selling him as a 5 WAR player going into his age 31 season when he's never done it before. His big "resurgence" year last year got him to 2.9 WAR. Nobody is buying that Kepler is a 5-6 WAR player. I also don't think Boston has "more outfielders than they know what to do with." Wilyer Abreu, Bobby Dalbec (1B trying to be turned into an OF), Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, and Masataka Yoshida are the guys currently on their 40-man listed as OFers. Duran looked legit last year, and Yoshida was really good. Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec are holding onto their spots by a thread. Abreu is a dime a dozen OF prospect just trying to earn a job. And Rafaela is a bigger name prospect trying to find MLB success. That's not an outfield that has an excess. Duran and Yoshida are likely the only 2 guys on that list that a contender would be comfortable handing starting jobs to. The Twins should absolutely not be banking on Kepler being worth a QO. Only 7 players were tendered QOs this year. I believe it was 13 last year. And expecting him to get $50+ mil in free agency in 2025 would also be a massive bet by the Twins, which likely wouldn't pay off and they wouldn't be getting a pick after the first round, it'd be after the 2nd. I do think you're overvaluing. Significantly. 5-6 WAR for a 31 year old who's only hit 4 WAR once feels an awful lot like overvaluing.

Yeah, I thought they were close enough in value to be used as a decent enough expectation setter for those calling for the trade of veterans. Similar, but younger, player brought back a decent enough pitching prospect, a flier MLB reliever, and a guy who likely never makes the majors, but is a decent system depth reliever. I know there will be some fans who are happy with that, but I'm with you, and a trade like that doesn't help the 2024 Twins, and I want no part of those trades this offseason.

Yeah, with them both being on 1 year deals, to me, it comes down to which one teams think is more likely to have the better 2024 season. Do you think Kepler has 1 more season like 2023 in him or do you think he's back to 2021 or 2022 Kepler? How much do you think the shift reduction helped him, and thus makes it more likely his production can be maintained? Can he continue to be an elite fielder for another season? These are the kinds of questions teams are likely asking themselves. Including the Twins. Because their answers to those questions also dictate what they're willing to accept back. I just thought it was an interesting look at things as they're similar players in that they're most likely average bats who play good to great defense in the corner outfield and are lefties on 1 year deals for roughly 10 million. I also wanted to use it as a bit of an expectations setter for people calling for the trade of the "expensive" veterans on the roster.

This absolutely isn't meant to be a shot at Keirsey as he's clearly a talented kid and does things us mere mortals simply can't, but if you're worried about losing Dashawn Keirsey types in the Rule V you're not as close to contending for titles as you'd like to be. I'd like to keep him around, and for that reason I hope he doesn't get picked, but he's not some vital part of a championship team. If the goal is to improve upon last year's results, Dashawn Keirsey simply isn't someone you should be worrying about. I hope he has a wonderful career and finds significant time on a big league roster somewhere. But if it's with the Twins in 2024 the Twins likely aren't winning the division, let alone getting further in the playoffs than they did in 2023. I know many of us follow these players through their minor league careers, and it makes us all (even grumpy naysayers like me) want to see them make it to the Twins and have success there and bring us championships, but the truth is that 27 year old rookies simply aren't difference makers (yes, you can find a guy here and there scattered throughout history as the exceptions to the rule). He's a nice enough depth piece if you have some injuries pop up and need a guy to fill in as your 4th OFer here and there, but he's not somebody you lose sleep over. The focus needs to shift from the bottom of the 40-man to the top. I know it's Rule V day so it's a natural talking point, but the section of the roster we need to be focused on is improving the top 10 guys on the roster, not whether or not the 40th guy is Keirsey, Prato, or some waiver claim like Castro. We tend to worry about losing "our guys" in the Rule V because we only focus on "our system." Speedy, glove first OFers aren't unheard of in other systems. Taking one you can't send up and down as needed for an entire season isn't usually something teams are jumping at the chance to do. I hope Keirsey makes it. I hope he makes me look like a jerk by putting up a great MLB career that just got started later than usual. But if the Twins can't find 4 guys with better chances to help the 2024 MN Twins to fill their last four 40-man spots than Dashawn Keirsey the 2024 Twins are going to struggle to win the central division, let alone make noise in the playoffs.

There's been various talk for the last few years about Kepler being traded. The Twins indication that they're going to be lowering payroll in 2024 is the driving factor this offseason while it's previously been about a perceived logjam of corner outfielders, especially ones that hit left handed. The Yankees have long been a team Twins fans thought would be a good trade partner for Kepler due to their need in the OF, and their park being very friendly to lefty bats. The Yanks just swung a deal with the hated Red Sox for Alex Verdugo, a lefty hitting corner outfielder. The talk around trades often revolves around "selling high" or trading guys when they have "value." I'm curious what folks think the Verdugo trade says about Kepler's value. Did they get more than you thought it'd be possible for the Twins to get for Kepler? Did they get less? About the same? In assessing what the Verdugo trade could mean for Kepler's value we should probably compare the 2. Both are entering the last year of team control. Kepler for $10 million, and Verdugo for somewhere in the low $9 million range (final year of arbitration). So dollars wise they're quite close. Kepler is older as he enters his age 31 season compared to Verdugo's age 28 season. Last season they were relatively similar in WAR as they came in at 2.9 (Kepler) and 2.6 (Verdugo) respectively in bWAR, and 2.6 (Kepler) to 2.0 (Verdugo) in fWAR. Verdugo played 142 games to Kepler's 130. Kepler had a slash line of .260/.332/.484/.816 with 24 HRs and an OPS+ of 121. Verdugo came in at .264/.324/.421/.745 with 13 HRs and an OPS+ of 100. Clearly Kepler had the better overall season. I prefer a 3 year look back to get a better idea of players who've been in the league for a while so let's take a look at the 2021-2023 stats for both. Kepler had a slash line of .233/.319/.418/.737 with 52 HRs and an OPS+ of 104. Verdugo had a slash line of .277/.334/.417/.751 with 37 HRS and an OPS+ of 103. I think this look at things begs the question of whether you believe Kepler will be closer to his 2023 self, or his previous 3 years self. And the answer to that question likely dictates what sort of value you believe he should be able to fetch in trade. The Red Sox got back 3 pitching prospects (Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice) in the trade. Weissert has thrown 31 1/3 innings with a 4.60 ERA in the majors over the last 2 years, and is 28 years old. I'd guess they're hoping he can be a 6/7 inning guy for them right away. Judice was an 8th round pick this season and is viewed as a potential reliever down the road due to his fastball/slider combination. Fitts is likely viewed by most as the biggest piece in the return. He's entering his age 24 season and was very good in AA last year (152 2/3 innings, 3.48 ERA, lots of Ks, not bad BB rate). MLB.com had him ranked as the Yanks #12 prospect, and now has him as the #10 Red Sox prospect. What do people think? Is Verdugo a reasonable comp for Kepler? Would you be happy with a similar package in return for Kepler? If another OF needy team calls about Kepler and offers a 24 year old who likely slots in amongst the SWR, Cory Lewis, CJ Culpepper type crowd with a couple reliever fliers should we take it?