chpettit19

That's certainly possible, but I think unlikely. If the players are looking to maximize the dollars coming their way in a floor/cap situation, they want buyouts of every deal where they still get their money, but the team has to drop them so they can sign somewhere else. Double dip. Edwin Diaz wants his 52+ million left on his deal from the Dodgers while also signing a 3 year, $33 million deal with the Twins. This is their chance to take a massive chunk of cash. The owners agree to it as a 1-time payment in return for getting cost control for their franchises. The players maximize their money by forcing teams to pay players twice instead of slowly adjusting in. But there's so many different rules that will have to be ironed out on how the cap and contracts work that it's really hard to say. I'd put my money on an immediate payroll requirement, though. Players want to get their money coming and going.

I have no doubt he can get that money; my concern is the Twins being the ones to pay it. He relies on his fastball spin making his fastball do abnormal things. The second that is gone Joe Ryan will start to really struggle. I don't want the Twins paying 30 million to him for years after that point. I have no problem with people wanting to extend Joe. I just think it turns into many of the same people complaining that his contract is ruining their ability to build out the rest of the roster. We haven't even gotten into pitcher injuries and the likelihood of that happening. It's a giant risk to pay any pitcher into their mid- to late-thirties. Giant.

I think Hartman is already on most other top 100s now. Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says about him in their update. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept them both. A little disappointed if they don't deal at least Jeffers, but not surprised.

Caminiti and Hartman.

It depends where the cap is at. There aren't a lot of guys with contracts big enough to make real movement toward the cap for them that aren't pretty big name guys, right? I wouldn't expect Ohtani or Tucker to be dropped, but Freeman and/or Betts? Certainly past their prime guys, but I'd certainly pay Freeman before I overspent on Jeffers. Can they keep their entire Cy Young style rotation together or is Blake Snell and/or Tyler Glasnow hitting the market? They able to afford Edwin Diaz still? Tanner Scott? The Dodgers would need to drop $75+ mil in payroll to get to a cap at $250 million. You're not getting there by non-tendering Alex Call. Obviously, the Twins aren't the only team that'd have to spend, so it's not like they just get the pick of the lot, but I think you'd see some awfully big names hitting the market.

5 years?! That'd be unprecedented. NFL teams had to cut players (whirlwind). NHL teams had to cut players (whirlwind). The NBA did grandfather veteran contracts in, but teams over the cap couldn't sign free agents (not such a whirlwind). 5 years would be the entire length of the new CBA. I think there is a 0% chance of a phase in that lasts the entire length of the CBA and then has to be renegotiated again. There has never been a true "phase in" for any other major American sports league that implemented a cap. And only the NBA grandfathered in any contracts.

If the Twins are forced to spend more there will be teams forced to cut and the free agent and trade markets won't look anything like they do right now. There's no world in which the owners accept a floor without a cap. Using the current free agent market in relation to the Twins being forced to spend more isn't a great exercise. The chaos enjoying side of my brain is actually rather intrigued by the idea of a floor and cap being implemented and there being a whirlwind of moves as teams have a shortened period of time before the season starts to get compliant 1 way or the other. Would be fantastic entertainment.

I think these are all very real possibilities. More order of confidence that they happen would be: 1. Pitching staff will be tested 2. The offense will slow to some extent 3. Tigers will make a push (Skubal decision is such a toss-up) 4. They'll have an eventful deadline 5. They'll play meaningful September baseball

The numbers provided in this thread by way of Dan Hayes reporting is 7 years, $210 million. Are you willing to pay 34-, 35-, 36-, and 37-year-old Joe Ryan $30 million a year? More power to ya if you are, but I think that's a contract that the vast majority of Twins fans are bemoaning when it's killing their payroll in 4 years.

You do realize that increasing the payroll and bringing Correa and Pablo in lead to the only playoff series win this franchise has had in over 2 decades, right? Not sure that's really the "gotcha!" moment you think it is.

I have no problem acquiring bullpen arms to try to boost that group whether they're able to stick in the race or not. But I want to know what it's going to cost before I decide if I like any certain acquisition or not.

The Twins would have to offer Jeffers the qualifying offer that will likely be over $23 million and have him reject it to get a comp pick. Assuming that's how things would play out is a massive bet. Making him the highest paid catcher in baseball next year and spending $30+ million on the catcher position would be quite a bold move if he accepts the QO.

This isn't quite true. The CBA expires at 11:59 PM ET on December 1, not at the end of the World Series. The general thought at this point is the owners lockout the players at 12 AM on December 2. It's possible one side or the other decides to act earlier than that, but that's not the likely chain of events. There will be a month-ish of offseason before a labor stoppage.

Yeah, I just don't agree with that. They already talked about his future when they negotiated his deal that included a 2027 option. They know if he's willing to sign something close to what they're willing to offer. If you know he's not signing, then you cash him in for his highest value, and that's before August 4th, 2026. Many people expected this team to be well below .500 and the league to be performing normally to this point. The fact that the Twins are only barely below .500 and the league as a whole has underperformed has people thinking this team is better than it is, in my opinion. They're below .500 but we're acting like they're a winning team challenging the best in the AL. They aren't. And trading Joe now doesn't mean they completely tank and only win 10 games after the deadline. The Tigers traded all their veterans in 2024 when they were 52-57 at the deadline and made the playoffs by letting their young guys come up and go to work. Trading Joe Ryan and the 10 or so starts he'd make after the deadline isn't some automatic death blow to this team. But the team isn't all that alive anyways. Give me the best chance at truly opening a window over crossing our fingers that this team that's been below .500 since April 22 is some sort of real contender. I get not wanting to trade him now, and don't think that's crazy, but I fully disagree with it until this team actually shows they're actual contenders. They have 16 games to do that, I guess.

Oh, and the team was 51-57 and on the way down.

I want no part of paying a pitcher 30 mil until they're 36/37 years old.

Joe Ryan has to want to do it. I feel like people leave the player and their free will out of the equation. If Joe Ryan doesn't want to sign an extension, the requirement for the Twins to spend money has nothing to do with Joe Ryan and his wishes. Unless you're advocating for the Twins to spend significantly above market rate to convince him to stay. Which is a bad strategy for roster management no matter how much they're required to spend.

Can you name a single trade of a pitcher that returned a major league closer and cleanup hitter? Like a single trade in the history of baseball? That is a wildly outrageous ask. What buying team is selling their closer and cleanup hitter for a pitcher?

You're leaving out the biggest IF...IF Joe Ryan wants to sign a deal before he hits free agency. Which doesn't really match with anything he's ever said about his contracts. They could certainly pursue him on the market after 2027, but the biggest factor in extending any player is that player and their willingness to do it.

I think taking this stuff into consideration when making decisions today is a really risky proposition. There will be so many other rules around contracts, payrolls, etc. that it doesn't seem like trying to guess at what the final outcome is would be all that helpful. If teams like the Twins are going to have to spend a bunch extra, teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are going to have to cut a lot. Guessing what the FA pool or trade opportunities are would just be throwing darts in the dark. The CBA can very much have a huge impact on the future of the Twins, but trying to make decisions now based on guesses of what it may look like feels really dangerous.

In 2024, the Tigers were 52-57 on July 31. Sold their veterans and ended the season at 86-76 and earned a wild card spot with a young team. Won 87 games last year. Got destroyed by injuries to start this year, but are making a run now. That is the picture I have in my head for the Twins. Do some selling of veterans on a below .500 team, add young talent to the roster, and tell them to go get themselves a playoff birth. I also expect Tom P to mandate them "going for it," and I very much worry it's going to hurt them down the road and completely undermine his goal.

I don't think this is an unreasonable stance, but calling him up and letting him play a game a week while being in the clubhouse around a pennant chase to prepare him for a larger role in 2028 feels about as useful as calling up some random AAAA guy and having him just sit on the bench. And it's entirely possible, if our dreams come true, that Lackey is better than Jackson and/or Caratini by September 2027. Not that I'd throw him straight into the starting catcher role, but giving him a few games would make sense then.

Have they been slow to promote elite prospects? Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, Marik Houston, and Walker Jenkins have all moved up at pretty quick paces. They haven't been the Angels in this regard, but they haven't held any of those guys back in any kind of abnormal way.

I think you've pretty spot on laid out the hope. I don't think it's an unrealistic timeline either, if he's close to as good as we all hope he is. This is what I'm hoping for. September call-up next year and a run at RoY in 2028.

I can see the logic in all 4 options. I'd go with #1. I expect them to go with #3 or 4. I don't think Joe is going to sign an extension. They agreed to an option year for his last arb year next year so they've already discussed his contract situation beyond this year. He's now made a 2nd All Star game and has the chance to finally perform through an entire season and raise his contract value even more. I highly doubt he signs an extension before he hits free agency if they weren't able to buy out any FA years when discussing the option for 2027. I don't think this team is a true contender in the way I want them to be. The rest of the league struggling so far, or them being slightly better than expectations, doesn't make them an actually good team. They're still below .500. I think 2027 and beyond should be the focus. If you don't think Joe Ryan is going to sign an extension (again, I don't) then the smart, although emotionless, thing to do is trade Ryan at his peak value and get pieces with good chances of helping those 2027 and beyond teams. The CBA negotiations wouldn't play a role in my decision. Make decisions based on what you know, not what you're guessing will happen in a crazy and aggressive negotiation. I also wouldn't use Tommy Boy's words about "being competitive" and hoped for PR boost for more ticket sales as a reason to keep Joe. The incremental boost you get now will be instantly crushed when he walks in free agency (cheap Pohlads will be the claim no matter why he leaves) and the team isn't good. The real PR and business boost they need is from a sustained, truly competitive, winning team. Not a team that is "in the playoff race" because the rest of the league is also down. I don't think anyone is off their rocker for wanting to go with options 2 through 4, but I'd go with #1 and give myself the best shot to truly open a competitive window moving forward. I don't expect them to, but it's what I'd do. Unless they go 11-5 before the deadline, I'd rethink things then.