John Bonnes

I wonder what was going on with Treinen last year. Looking at reports, he looked great in the spring and in his first couple (multi-inning) appearances, then struggled but was shortly thereafter diagnosed with tendonitis. He came back, but Mid-July he was shut down with a shoulder injury. He came back again but was shut down for good in September with a back injury. Looking at that, I could see a narrative that he just had cascading injuries that led to a season in which he could never get back on track. That seems like a guy who could bounce back big time.

Aaron and John talk about Kyle Gibson's unexpectedly big contract with the Rangers, how the C.J. Cron decision is much bigger than it looks, Derek Shelton and Jeremy Hefner becoming the latest ex-Twins coaches, and giving thanks for a great 2019 on and off the field. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

In the long run, Jorge Polanco is no championship-caliber fielding shortstop. The Twins probably won’t have to move him off that position for 2020, but if they want to be an elite team, they’ll eventually need a stronger-armed, rangier player at that position. Polanco’s place on the roster seems set for several more years, though, thanks to the long-term extension he signed prior to the 2019 campaign.That deal locked in his salary, but his value to the team as it reaches the meat of its contention window remains unknown. The key to solving for that variable, especially if and when he moves off shortstop, is answering the question: Is his power real? Polanco has demonstrated some measure of meaningful pop, on and off, ever since the second half of 2017. However, for most of that span, the ball has also been juiced, and that has helped players who would otherwise be slightly underpowered even more than it’s helped others. After his stellar finish in the Twins’ push to the Wild Card Game in 2017, Polanco was suspended for the first half of 2018 after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, and when he returned, he didn’t tap into the same power (especially the same over-the-fence power) he’d shown in the latter third of 2017. If those two seasons represented inconsistent progress, though, Polanco’s 2019 was a full-fledged breakout. The thing is, the ball was juiced more than ever this year, and it’s not clear that the same will be true come 2020. For that matter, we have to tackle the questions attached to the way Polanco’s power slumped as the season progressed. Download attachment: Polanco Power.JPG In the first two months of 2019, his expected slugging average (according to Statcast) was a robust .527. In June and July, that figure fell to .436, and in August and September, it was a paltry .393. If that decline was all about Polanco playing while banged up, or the normal grind of the season, it’s not overwhelmingly worrisome. If, however, it showed that teams had either spotted the holes in his swing or started playing matchups to minimize his chance to access his power, it’s a bit more troubling. Note, too, that the early- and late-season slices also show a big gap between actual slugging average and expected slugging. The quality of Polanco’s contact wasn’t quite commensurate with his results. Slicing and dicing his production even further, something important pops out right away: all of Polanco’s power comes when he bats left-handed. His left-handed swing generates natural lift. He has a hole in his swing, down and in, and his power is limited on inside pitches, but his power gains in 2019 (in terms of average exit velocity and in frequencies of the highest-value types of batted balls) came almost exclusively on pitches from the center of the zone up, and from the middle of the plate away, when he was batting against right-handers. As a righty, facing lefties, Polanco remains what he’s always been. He has great contact skills, but the plane of his swing from that side is flat. He’s more aggressive and more reliant on his speed, as well as on using the whole field. That makes him more likely to age well from the left side of the plate, but definitely exposes him to some matchup vulnerabilities. More importantly, the fact that the unimposing Polanco both fails to consistently generate hard contact and relies on power generated on outside offerings, suggests that he might not find even double-digit home runs if the juice is suddenly taken out of the baseball. Traditionally, there’s been an expectation that power develops late, and that a player finds more pop as he reaches his mid- and late 20s. That’s hard to count on in Polanco’s case, though. Firstly, with Statcast data, we have an easier time identifying the best candidates for power boosts, and Polanco doesn’t seem like one of them, given his batted-ball profile. He’s not blessed with the bat speed to generate exceptionally hard contact, such that he might do so more consistently with age and polish. Secondly, as the game has evolved to favor youth (and as sports science has advanced to prepare bodies for the highest level of competition at earlier ages), we see players make those jumps sooner. Indeed, given that Polanco has already solved his launch-angle problem from the left side, he might already have made the biggest advancement of which he’s capable. None of this means Polanco can’t make adjustments and continue to hit for power, even as teams try to find ways to neutralize the power he’s developed, and even if the ball does lose its juice. We’ve seen Didi Gregorius, another lithe and relatively unmuscled shortstop, sustain consistent power production despite unimpressive Statcast batted-ball data in the aggregate. Some of that is attributable to Gregorius having played his home games at Yankee Stadium, but some of it lies in his ability to punish mistakes, and to shift between looking for a pitch to drive in the air and looking for something he can punch through the infield. Polanco already makes that transition fluidly, based on situations, and he’s a better runner than Gregorius, which allows him to sustain a higher BABIP. His offensive profile isn’t wholly dependent on power. If he wants to be the Twins’ third baseman or left fielder of the future, though, he’ll need to continue adapting, and find ways to hit the ball hard more consistently. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' tough Rule 5 draft decisions, the future of Wander Javier, the White Sox pushing to make the AL Central a three-team race, signing away your entire career for $24 million, the pros and cons of C.J. Cron, and mailbag questions. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

It is an unsafe world out there. All you can do is keep your head on a swivel, prepare them as best you can, and let them know that at least for now, Jose Abreu still only has a one-year deal.

I would really, really, REALLY like to see him repeat his performance this year. That to me is the biggest question. We know he can overcome adversity. But can he overcome success?

Yeah, but this isn't trading for minor leaguers. It's trading for major leaguers. I'd give some cautionary notes there. Certainly that didn't work well in the Sam Dyson trade. Maybe the chaos and urgency of a trade deadline worked against them, but they clearly didn't see he was damaged good when they scouted him. Jake Odorizzi looked good last year, but he didn't look terribly good the year after they acquired him, though it looks like they got away without giving up too much.Love Sergio Romo. No arguments there. Finally, the only other time I remember them trading for a major leaguer was the 2017 trade deadline debacle. They traded for Jaime Garcia, but then panicked and reversed course a few days later, traded him away, traded away their closer Brandon Kintzler - and then won the Wild Card. That's a pretty mixed bag of major league trades. I'd perhaps conclude they did a decent job in some of their 2018 deadline trades that look like they're paying out. But I'll hold back on evaluating them until I see how this offseason works out.

You make a compelling argument that this looks sustainable. An 800 OPS plays in the majors, and if you take a 300+ BA with a lot of plate discipline, that is and OBP approaching 400. You don't need to add much slugging percentage to turn that into a 400 OPS. FWIW, I think he will add some power, too. That's natural and we forget that he's only 23, so he's nowhere near his power peak. I would love to also see some improvement in his defense, because I'm not totally sure where he can play full time - his really valuable role might be as a super-utility guy.

Aaron and John talk about Jake Odorizzi accepting the Twins' qualifying offer, the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, the ETA for the Twins' next big move, Rocco Baldelli winning Manager of the Year, and contract extensions for everyone. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

I can't stop giggling at how stupid the Orel Hershiser thing is.

Two of the top five free agent starters and three of the top eight, you say! What's not to like? When one increases the payroll by $35M, one can get a lot of really fun players (or one Gerrit Cole.) I like the idea of signing someone like Smyly for our #5 starter. I suspect it is far more likely someone like that ends up as the Twins #4 starter, but so long as they end the offseason with a top 5 free agent starting pitcher, I could probably be OK with that.

One of the traits of this front office so far has been that they like to limit their "floor". For example, bringing in CJ Cron last year early in the offseason even though they were also chasing Nelson Cruz later (and had Tyler Austin on the team). Or signing Marwin Gonzalez in spring training when they were unsure about the health of Miguel Sano. This move is another good example. The Twins now have signed one of the top eight free agent starting pitchers on the market. I think (and really hope) they sign at least one pitcher better than Odo, but this establishes a floor for the second spot in the rotation.

It is kind of stunning to see his name in there. I will say this: for the first half of the season, I'm fairly sure that he was on my team MVP list, though I have trouble remembering where. So if a sportswriter only saw the Twins early in the year, he or she might have that opinion. Unfortunately, I don't think any GMs of other MLB teams are traditional sportswriters.

Jake Odorizzi has accepted the Twins' qualifying offer, meaning he will return to the Twins starting rotation in 2020. The news means that the Twins can now plan on Jose Berrios and Odorizzi in their starting rotation, but still have one to three more spots to fill through trades, free agency or promotions from within the organization.Odorizzi's decision means he will return to the Twins for at least one year, at a cost of $17.8M. It is also possible that the Twins could work out a longer contract with Odorizzi, locking him up for more years and more guaranteed money, but at lower cost for this year. That is probably unlikely. The Twins are likely happy with a one-year commitment, and it would certainly pay for Odorizzi to gamble on repeating this season's exceptional performance. The decision is a natural result of the leverage created when the Twins gave Odorizzi a qualifying offer last week. A qualifying offer is a way teams can get compensation for a free agent who leaves their team. It’s similar to a “franchise tag” in the NFL. A team can give a qualifying offer, which has two parts, one pretty good for the player and one very bad for the impending free agent: It gives the player an offer for a one-year contract at the median salary of the top 100 players in MLB, which this year is $17.8M. The player can accept or reject this offer. That’s the pretty good part.The very bad part is that if the player rejects the offer, any team that signs him will need to give up a second- or third- round draft pick, which hurts the player’s free agent value.Odorizzi, who is only 29 years old and posted a 3.51 ERA last year, would probably have been offered a three- or four- year guaranteed contract in free agency if no draft pick was attached. But by giving him a qualifying offer, he became less appealing than at least a few other similar free agents who have no such draft pick attached, like Cole Hamels and Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had a qualifying offer last year, and not only didn't get a multi-year contract, he had to wait until June to sign a one-year (or two-thirds-of-a-year) deal. Provided Odorizzi has a similar year next year, he should be in a much stronger position next offseason. A player can get a qualifying offer only once in his career, so Odorizzi will be free and clear next year. He’ll still only be 30 years old, and (hopefully) a stronger resume, setting him up for a long-term deal. Maybe most importantly, it’s a weaker free agent class; this 2020 class is unusually strong. Add all that up, and you'll see why we predicted Odorizzi's return last week. With one formerly open spot now filled in their rotation, the Twins essentially have $52M (per year) to spend on two more free agent starting pitchers, as detailed in our Twins payroll analysis. For an even more detailed breakdown of the payroll and the other options they might have, you can also download our 2020 Offseason Handbook for whatever you feel it is worth. Click here to view the article

Do we have any numbers on which teams used relievers the most for less than three batters and didn't finish the inning?

1) Roy Smalley recently talked about he would want to go out and get Rendon, too, only he would trade Sano. I like the idea of keeping Sano more. So I thought about it, and .... nah. If I'm going to go all in on a position player like that, he has to hit left-handed. I want that #4 guy to plug between Cruz and Sano next year. (Rendon would obviously make more sense in 2021, when Cruz is likely gone.) 2) Another blueprint with Gray. He's getting pretty popular around here. 3) The estimates we put in the Handbook are crowdsourced among the authors but it's several weeks before other published estimates. Every year we look back at them and see how we did. There are always a few surprises, and it's very common we're off by a million or two per year for players. That can be a problem with several in a row are low, and when the payroll goes up to $140+. So yes, this seems a little overpacked with talent, identifying some of the ones that seem a little low now. Currently the one I'm least comfortable with is Odo at 3/36. I'd have been a lot more comfortable with 3/39 or 3/42. But that draft pick could weigh it down to our estimate.

Ditto. I'll never say never. If you would have asked me in September, I think I would've said I expect him back, just because it makes some sense for both teams. But at this point, I only want him back as either a #5 starter (which blocks Dobnak, Smeltzer, etc.) or maybe as a #4 starter if they end up with one of the top five FAs on the market. And I see no reason to rush this. If he's scooped up by someone before February, so be it. There are another 5-10 starting pitchers that "could be good if...." guys on the market to replace him.

1) I very much like the long-term view of this blueprint. The "extend or trade" strategy is not something I had thought of. I'd be a little hesitant to do either this offseason, but it makes a lot of sense to me next offseason. I wouldn't rule it out this offseason, but I'd want to see what the Twins get in return. I'd be less fussy about the return next offseason (as I would need to be). 2) I like the structure of the extensions very much. One thing we haven't talked about much is the payroll in 2021 and 2022. The amounts on those arb players are going to increase faster than revenues, which could mean some lean offseasons (though I haven't studied this). Essentially front-loading those contracts helps offset that. 3) I also think the overall amount for the Buxton contract sounds pretty good, though I think you're dreaming a bit on those team option years.

1) If Odo returns and takes the #3 spot, I'd be thrilled with Hamels for the 4 spot, and the Twins payroll should allow as much. If Odo does not return, then I would be borderline frantic to try and end up with Hamels to replace Odo in that #3 spot. 2) FWIW, this management team seems to love veterans that have a good locker room rep, and Hamels fills that bill. He seems like exactly the kind of guy this group would target.

I've got to go with Garver. It was just such a crazy good breakthrough. Plus, he'll face more right-handed pitching, and probably wear down a bit with more games as a catcher. I'd probably expect some regression from all of the above, which also raises the question: is there one guy of the five ho you think will actually be better this year? My pick for that would be Sano. Arraez might be second, just because he's still so young.