John Bonnes

You make a compelling argument that this looks sustainable. An 800 OPS plays in the majors, and if you take a 300+ BA with a lot of plate discipline, that is and OBP approaching 400. You don't need to add much slugging percentage to turn that into a 400 OPS. FWIW, I think he will add some power, too. That's natural and we forget that he's only 23, so he's nowhere near his power peak. I would love to also see some improvement in his defense, because I'm not totally sure where he can play full time - his really valuable role might be as a super-utility guy.

Aaron and John talk about Jake Odorizzi accepting the Twins' qualifying offer, the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, the ETA for the Twins' next big move, Rocco Baldelli winning Manager of the Year, and contract extensions for everyone. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

I can't stop giggling at how stupid the Orel Hershiser thing is.

Two of the top five free agent starters and three of the top eight, you say! What's not to like? When one increases the payroll by $35M, one can get a lot of really fun players (or one Gerrit Cole.) I like the idea of signing someone like Smyly for our #5 starter. I suspect it is far more likely someone like that ends up as the Twins #4 starter, but so long as they end the offseason with a top 5 free agent starting pitcher, I could probably be OK with that.

One of the traits of this front office so far has been that they like to limit their "floor". For example, bringing in CJ Cron last year early in the offseason even though they were also chasing Nelson Cruz later (and had Tyler Austin on the team). Or signing Marwin Gonzalez in spring training when they were unsure about the health of Miguel Sano. This move is another good example. The Twins now have signed one of the top eight free agent starting pitchers on the market. I think (and really hope) they sign at least one pitcher better than Odo, but this establishes a floor for the second spot in the rotation.

It is kind of stunning to see his name in there. I will say this: for the first half of the season, I'm fairly sure that he was on my team MVP list, though I have trouble remembering where. So if a sportswriter only saw the Twins early in the year, he or she might have that opinion. Unfortunately, I don't think any GMs of other MLB teams are traditional sportswriters.

Jake Odorizzi has accepted the Twins' qualifying offer, meaning he will return to the Twins starting rotation in 2020. The news means that the Twins can now plan on Jose Berrios and Odorizzi in their starting rotation, but still have one to three more spots to fill through trades, free agency or promotions from within the organization.Odorizzi's decision means he will return to the Twins for at least one year, at a cost of $17.8M. It is also possible that the Twins could work out a longer contract with Odorizzi, locking him up for more years and more guaranteed money, but at lower cost for this year. That is probably unlikely. The Twins are likely happy with a one-year commitment, and it would certainly pay for Odorizzi to gamble on repeating this season's exceptional performance. The decision is a natural result of the leverage created when the Twins gave Odorizzi a qualifying offer last week. A qualifying offer is a way teams can get compensation for a free agent who leaves their team. It’s similar to a “franchise tag” in the NFL. A team can give a qualifying offer, which has two parts, one pretty good for the player and one very bad for the impending free agent: It gives the player an offer for a one-year contract at the median salary of the top 100 players in MLB, which this year is $17.8M. The player can accept or reject this offer. That’s the pretty good part.The very bad part is that if the player rejects the offer, any team that signs him will need to give up a second- or third- round draft pick, which hurts the player’s free agent value.Odorizzi, who is only 29 years old and posted a 3.51 ERA last year, would probably have been offered a three- or four- year guaranteed contract in free agency if no draft pick was attached. But by giving him a qualifying offer, he became less appealing than at least a few other similar free agents who have no such draft pick attached, like Cole Hamels and Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had a qualifying offer last year, and not only didn't get a multi-year contract, he had to wait until June to sign a one-year (or two-thirds-of-a-year) deal. Provided Odorizzi has a similar year next year, he should be in a much stronger position next offseason. A player can get a qualifying offer only once in his career, so Odorizzi will be free and clear next year. He’ll still only be 30 years old, and (hopefully) a stronger resume, setting him up for a long-term deal. Maybe most importantly, it’s a weaker free agent class; this 2020 class is unusually strong. Add all that up, and you'll see why we predicted Odorizzi's return last week. With one formerly open spot now filled in their rotation, the Twins essentially have $52M (per year) to spend on two more free agent starting pitchers, as detailed in our Twins payroll analysis. For an even more detailed breakdown of the payroll and the other options they might have, you can also download our 2020 Offseason Handbook for whatever you feel it is worth. Click here to view the article

Do we have any numbers on which teams used relievers the most for less than three batters and didn't finish the inning?

1) Roy Smalley recently talked about he would want to go out and get Rendon, too, only he would trade Sano. I like the idea of keeping Sano more. So I thought about it, and .... nah. If I'm going to go all in on a position player like that, he has to hit left-handed. I want that #4 guy to plug between Cruz and Sano next year. (Rendon would obviously make more sense in 2021, when Cruz is likely gone.) 2) Another blueprint with Gray. He's getting pretty popular around here. 3) The estimates we put in the Handbook are crowdsourced among the authors but it's several weeks before other published estimates. Every year we look back at them and see how we did. There are always a few surprises, and it's very common we're off by a million or two per year for players. That can be a problem with several in a row are low, and when the payroll goes up to $140+. So yes, this seems a little overpacked with talent, identifying some of the ones that seem a little low now. Currently the one I'm least comfortable with is Odo at 3/36. I'd have been a lot more comfortable with 3/39 or 3/42. But that draft pick could weigh it down to our estimate.

Ditto. I'll never say never. If you would have asked me in September, I think I would've said I expect him back, just because it makes some sense for both teams. But at this point, I only want him back as either a #5 starter (which blocks Dobnak, Smeltzer, etc.) or maybe as a #4 starter if they end up with one of the top five FAs on the market. And I see no reason to rush this. If he's scooped up by someone before February, so be it. There are another 5-10 starting pitchers that "could be good if...." guys on the market to replace him.

1) I very much like the long-term view of this blueprint. The "extend or trade" strategy is not something I had thought of. I'd be a little hesitant to do either this offseason, but it makes a lot of sense to me next offseason. I wouldn't rule it out this offseason, but I'd want to see what the Twins get in return. I'd be less fussy about the return next offseason (as I would need to be). 2) I like the structure of the extensions very much. One thing we haven't talked about much is the payroll in 2021 and 2022. The amounts on those arb players are going to increase faster than revenues, which could mean some lean offseasons (though I haven't studied this). Essentially front-loading those contracts helps offset that. 3) I also think the overall amount for the Buxton contract sounds pretty good, though I think you're dreaming a bit on those team option years.

1) If Odo returns and takes the #3 spot, I'd be thrilled with Hamels for the 4 spot, and the Twins payroll should allow as much. If Odo does not return, then I would be borderline frantic to try and end up with Hamels to replace Odo in that #3 spot. 2) FWIW, this management team seems to love veterans that have a good locker room rep, and Hamels fills that bill. He seems like exactly the kind of guy this group would target.

I've got to go with Garver. It was just such a crazy good breakthrough. Plus, he'll face more right-handed pitching, and probably wear down a bit with more games as a catcher. I'd probably expect some regression from all of the above, which also raises the question: is there one guy of the five ho you think will actually be better this year? My pick for that would be Sano. Arraez might be second, just because he's still so young.

It's very hard to estimate the return necessary in a trade, so by definition you're taking a leap of faith by estimating that. I appreciate that. It's not easy to do as a writer. That said, I agree - that seems like a lot for Boston and not enough for Colorado. A couple of random observations: 1) Balazovic seems like the "prospect everyone is willing to trade" this offseason. I wonder why that is. Perhaps he's just in that sweet spot of "highly rated" and "not around long enough for me to be kind of attached to him yet." 2) I'd give up Sano in a trade for someone - but I don't know exactly who right now. I'm just so excited to see what he can be next year. Probably irrationally so. 3) Do we now if Jon Gray is on the market? I have to imagine not, given the surgery thing, but maybe that makes him that much more attainable.

That's just an amazing roster. I can argue with specifics, and will likely add my own blueprint at some point (and I'd encourage everyone else to publish their own in the Twins Talk forum) but it illustrates a fundamental truth: this team is positioned to get a whole lot better without breaking the bank this offseason. The whole "the Pohlads need to spend more" argument is essentially a red herring this offseason. Whether you believe it or not (and I do), it shouldn't matter much. Falvey and Levine have positioned this team to be able to make a lot of big moves with or without financial restrictions. That Nick can make all these additions and still stay at about $140M illustrates that.

That's an interesting thought. I'm pretty sure it's been done for key coaches in other organizations, like a hitting coach or a pitching coach. But usually that coach is already where wants to be. He doesn't want to continue climbing up the ladder to eventually become a manager. If the desire of a coach is to continue growing in their career towards becoming a major league manager (or a general manager), then what kind of contract would they accept that limits that? These kind of opportunities don't come every year. Is a guy really going to accept sitting in a job he feels he's already mastered for three more years while better jobs go to someone else? Maybe, if the compensation is really good, but it's akin to trying to tell a guy at AA that he needs to stay there for several years, rather than go to AAA with another organization. Even if you pay him really well, the point of the journey is to continue the upward climb, not get paid well.

I'm open to something like this, but my question is: do we think Polanco's arm can handle third base? It's his biggest weakness (IMHO) at shortstop. I also just looked up his minor league career. He's only had two starts there above rookie league in his minor league career. He also played nine games there in the majors in 2016. If he can handle it, I Iike this plan quite a bit, and might be worth keeping in mind for 2021, if not 2020. Sano isn't getting any younger. I'd love to see Polanco get some time at 3B in spring training, or maybe if he plays in a winter league.

Aaron and John talk about Jake Odorizzi's big decision, trying to bring back Sergio Romo and Jason Castro, losing Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves, front office promotions, emailing with the mayor's wife, and big ideas for the infield corners. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

I really like opt-out contract idea. That's very interesting.

The Twins announced a flurry of moves yesterday, including giving a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi now needs to make a decision next week, and the move greatly increases his chances of remaining with the Twins next year, essentially leaving them two spots and $52 million dollars to rebuild their starting rotation.A qualifying offer is a way teams can get some compensation for a free agent who leaves their team. It’s similar to a “franchise tag” in the NFL. A team can give a qualifying offer, which has two parts, one pretty good for the player and one very bad for the impending free agent: It gives the player an offer for a one-year contract at the median salary of the top 100 players in MLB, which this year is $17.8M. The player can accept or reject this offer. That’s the pretty good part.The very bad part is that if the player rejects the offer, any team that signs him will need to give up a second- or third- round draft pick, which hurts the player’s free agent value.Odorizzi, who is only 29 years old and posted a 3.51 ERA last year, would probably be offered a three- or four- year guaranteed contract in free agency if no draft pick was attached. But by giving him a qualifying offer, he becomes less appealing than at least a few other similar free agents who have no such draft pick attached, like Cole Hamels and Dallas Keuchel. He goes from probably the sixth most appealing free agent pitcher on the market to the eighth best. That’s not a huge drop, but free agency has changed a lot the last two years. There are only so many teams that are willing to drop $15M per year or more on a starting pitcher. If Odorizzi can’t guarantee at least a three-year deal for upwards of $40M, he is probably better off taking the $17.8M deal and trying again next year. A player can only get a qualifying offer once in his career, so Odorizzi would be free and clear next year. He’ll still only be 30 years old, and - provided he has a similar year – a stronger resume, setting him up for a long-term deal. (Let’s not forget that Odorizzi’s combined ERA in 2017 and 2018 was 4.33.) Maybe most importantly, it’s a weaker free agent class; he could be the third best or maybe even second best starting pitcher on the market next year. If Odorizzi decides against accepting the offer, he might want to have a guaranteed multi-year contract in hand before he has to make a decision by 11/14. That is a tight timeline in what has been a slow-moving free agent market over the last couple of years. Weighing those options, it’s hard to see how Odorizzi would not accept the qualifying offer and return to the Twins next year on the $17.8M, one-year deal in 2020. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the many paths the Twins can take to rebuild their rotation, saying goodbye to Sam Dyson, claiming Matt Wisler, how to approach the qualifying offer with Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, and Derek Shelton remaining in limbo. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article