John Bonnes

How about an intimate holiday gathering with … Michael Cuddyer? Joe Nathan? Scott Erickson? These are just a few of the special guests at past Twins Daily’s Winter Meltdown, and this year we’ll be in a gorgeous venue where everyone can see & hear the stage. Plus, you can buy presale tickets for just $25 (regular $40) through 12/25 (or until we run out). We are offering this quietly, to people that visit the site in the dead of winter.The Meltdown is Saturday, Jan 25th, from 4:30-7:30. That's the same night you'll be in town anyway, going to Twins Fest. It'll be at Lumber Exchange in downtown Minneapolis, just three blocks from Twins Plaza. It includes a pint glass (you can see previous years’) and two free 612 Brew beers. Plus, you could have met all of the above guests and many more at our Meltdowns. (We're not letting the cat out of the bag yet who are special guests are this year until after the new year.) There will also be some sweet raffle and game prizes, and lots of time to talk Hot Stove. Warning: These discounted presale tix sell out. So even if your holiday shopping is done, you might want to grab some ASAP. Or let your family know that THIS is what you really want. Or buy a pack and give your friends, family and coworkers a night to remember in the dead of winter. We'll see you there. Buy your tickets now! The 2020 Twins Daily Winter MeltdownJanuary 25th, 2020, 4:30-7:30 PM Lumber Exchange Event Center, 10 S 5th St, Minneapolis, MN 55402 Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about what's left of the Twins' chances of signing a big-time free agent, what pivoting to the trade market for pitching help would entail, Eddie Rosario and Jake Cave trade rumors, getting scouting reports on middle relievers from drunk women in bars, and the war zone that is Twins Twitter. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Interesting name. If the Twins had not signed Pineda, I'd be a little more interested in Gonzales. And I still might be interested if they lose out on Bumgarner and Ryu. But if they come out of this offseason swapping Gibson for Gonzales, I'm going to be at the front of the pack with my torch and pitchfork.

Like you, I have trouble believing the Marlins are too revved up about giving anything of value for Rosario. That franchise just doesn't care that much. If this is the best they have, I think we look elsewhere and hang on to Eddie.

What about bullpen arms? That seems more reasonable.

The big news yesterday was superstar third baseman Anthony Rendon agreed to a deal with the Angels, but we also heard Eddie Rosario’s name kicked around in trades – and those reports came from other teams. The bad news is we didn’t hear anything from Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. That’s also the good news. What will Day 4 bring?Rendon Fallout The Angels paid dearly for Anthony Rendon, agreeing to a seven-year, $245M contract. Does that mean they are less likely to chase a starting pitcher that the Twins have their eyes on? Or more likely? It also means that third baseman Josh Donaldson is not the top free agent position player, and we keep hearing the Twins are in the mix for him. If the Twins determine they can’t sign Bumgarner or Ryu, do they take the $30+ million of available payroll and pivot to a deal with Donaldson? Do you feel comfortable offering the 34-year-old the four-year deal he desires? Rosario Rumors The trade rumors that have swirled around Eddie Rosario this winter picked up steam yesterday, including a report that the Marlins had been asking about him and found the price very high. Coincidentally, Cooper Carlson wrote up a story yesterday detailing some Marlins starting pitchers that could be targets for the Twins. Waiting on the Big Arms We didn’t get a decision from Bumgarner or Ryu yesterday, though we did hear that some of the big boys like the Dodgers are now involved. So maybe no news was good news? It appears there is no longer any reason for either player to delay making a decision – they are clearly the best options remaining on the market – so one would think news should be coming soon. Patrick Wozniak has a story that will be published later today on the challenges of landing an ace. If the Twins don’t end up with one of them, there are also trade targets waiting for the market to settle. Can I interest you in David Price? You’ll be able to read about possibilities of making with a trade with the Red Sox for Price later today, courtesy of Cody Christie. Bullpen Buzz Suddenly, we’re hearing the Twins might be interested in some big-time bullpen arms, including Dellin Betances, the lights-out, former Yankees reliever who is recovering from an Achilles injury. Sergio Romo is still available, too. Rule 5 Draft today The Twins might grab someone, but are more likely to lose someone in the Rule 5 draft today. Ted detailed some of the Twins farmhands that might be at risk a couple of weeks ago. Have At It. (And Share?) Whew. That enough for you? TwinsDaily.com served up over 50,000 page views yesterday to over 14,000 visitors as everyone got caught up on the latest news. Today should be another big day, and your Twins friends might appreciate you letting them in on you little secret cool community here. We’re very glad you found us. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

As to the worthiness of the endeavor - go for it. It's a long offseason. It is kind of fun. And the 2019 list is going to make the 2018 list a lot easier to compile. I'm sort of struck by how few of the guys came here as part of a trade. Back in 2002, the last time a Twins team showed this much promise, it feels like there were a lot more trades. I'd say the same about the end of the Terry Ryan era. I suspect there will be a lot more long threads in future Twins teams given all the prospects acquired at the 2018 trade deadline.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins re-signing Michael Pineda, replacing Jason Castro with Alex Avila, and how they can stick the landing of a great offseason with Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or a big trade. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Less, I think? But maybe not a lot less. People forget he's only 30 years old. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets 4/90.

The Twins watched today as baseball's hot stove heated up like a microwave. Two of the top remaining seven starting pitchers reached agreements with other teams, and at least one of them was reportedly a Minnesota Twins target. Zack Wheeler, who the Twins reportedly made an offer, has reached a 5-year agreement with the Philadelphia Phillies. Cole Hamels was signed by the Atlanta Braves earlier in the day.The moves mean that among top-tier starting pitchers, only five remain: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Kuechel. Here are their profiles from Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook, which you can still download for whatever price you think is fair. Gerrit Cole, RHP Age: 29 Previous Team: Astros 2019 Stats: 2.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 in 212.1 IP The big fish. The crown jewel. The white whale. Upon being traded from Pittsburgh to Houston two years ago, Cole went from being a great pitcher to one of the best in the game, and he's coming off a career year with 326 strikeouts and 20 wins. Still only 29 years old, the right-hander will command a king's ransom. Are you prepared to wade into these waters? Estimated Contract: 7 years, $224 million Stephen Strasburg, RHP Age: 31 Previous Team: Nationals 2019 Stats: 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 in 209.0 IP Presumably, Strasburg will opt out of his remaining four years and $100 million with the Nationals. At the very least he should be able to beef up his current deal in Washington, and if he tests the open market, there's a decent chance someone else could lure him away. Obviously, that'd be a pricy proposition. Strasburg's stuff is as good as it gets, and he's coming off a fantastic season. But, he has averaged only 145 innings over the past four seasons, so there's some durability risk attached to the sky-high price tag. Estimated Contract: 6 years, $150 million Madison Bumgarner, LHP Age: 30 Previous Team: Giants 2019 Stats: 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 207.2 IP The legendary World Series performer hasn't quite been the same over the past three years as he was through age 26; his downturn coincides with a 2017 dirtbike accident that injured his pitching shoulder. Since his return, he's still been effective – albeit looking more like a No. 2 than No. 1. He did pitch very well in the second half of 2019. The record of postseason mastery remains a primary selling point, even if it's been five years since we've seen it. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $80 million Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP Age: 31 Previous Team: Astros 2019 Stats: 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.2 BB/9 in 182.2 IP The Korean southpaw is coming off some kinda season. He was the best pitcher in an elite Dodgers rotation that included Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Rich Hill. Ryu has in fact always been quite effective when on the mound, boasting a 54-33 career record and 2.98 ERA. The trouble has been staying healthy. Prior to 2019 he'd totaled 213.2 IP over the past four seasons. LA will surely seek to bring him back and it may be tough to pry him away, but money talks if you're willing to take the risk with the upside. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $54 million Dallas Keuchel, LHP (ATL, 32): Signed midway through the season after shedding his draft-pick compensation and pitched to form in Atlanta: a solid No. 2 type but hardly an ace. 3 years, $45 million Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY - Non-Tendered Players That Could Interest the Minnesota Twins - What the Early Twins Offseason Rumblings Tell Us - Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler Click here to view the article

I wonder what was going on with Treinen last year. Looking at reports, he looked great in the spring and in his first couple (multi-inning) appearances, then struggled but was shortly thereafter diagnosed with tendonitis. He came back, but Mid-July he was shut down with a shoulder injury. He came back again but was shut down for good in September with a back injury. Looking at that, I could see a narrative that he just had cascading injuries that led to a season in which he could never get back on track. That seems like a guy who could bounce back big time.

Aaron and John talk about Kyle Gibson's unexpectedly big contract with the Rangers, how the C.J. Cron decision is much bigger than it looks, Derek Shelton and Jeremy Hefner becoming the latest ex-Twins coaches, and giving thanks for a great 2019 on and off the field. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

In the long run, Jorge Polanco is no championship-caliber fielding shortstop. The Twins probably won’t have to move him off that position for 2020, but if they want to be an elite team, they’ll eventually need a stronger-armed, rangier player at that position. Polanco’s place on the roster seems set for several more years, though, thanks to the long-term extension he signed prior to the 2019 campaign.That deal locked in his salary, but his value to the team as it reaches the meat of its contention window remains unknown. The key to solving for that variable, especially if and when he moves off shortstop, is answering the question: Is his power real? Polanco has demonstrated some measure of meaningful pop, on and off, ever since the second half of 2017. However, for most of that span, the ball has also been juiced, and that has helped players who would otherwise be slightly underpowered even more than it’s helped others. After his stellar finish in the Twins’ push to the Wild Card Game in 2017, Polanco was suspended for the first half of 2018 after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, and when he returned, he didn’t tap into the same power (especially the same over-the-fence power) he’d shown in the latter third of 2017. If those two seasons represented inconsistent progress, though, Polanco’s 2019 was a full-fledged breakout. The thing is, the ball was juiced more than ever this year, and it’s not clear that the same will be true come 2020. For that matter, we have to tackle the questions attached to the way Polanco’s power slumped as the season progressed. Download attachment: Polanco Power.JPG In the first two months of 2019, his expected slugging average (according to Statcast) was a robust .527. In June and July, that figure fell to .436, and in August and September, it was a paltry .393. If that decline was all about Polanco playing while banged up, or the normal grind of the season, it’s not overwhelmingly worrisome. If, however, it showed that teams had either spotted the holes in his swing or started playing matchups to minimize his chance to access his power, it’s a bit more troubling. Note, too, that the early- and late-season slices also show a big gap between actual slugging average and expected slugging. The quality of Polanco’s contact wasn’t quite commensurate with his results. Slicing and dicing his production even further, something important pops out right away: all of Polanco’s power comes when he bats left-handed. His left-handed swing generates natural lift. He has a hole in his swing, down and in, and his power is limited on inside pitches, but his power gains in 2019 (in terms of average exit velocity and in frequencies of the highest-value types of batted balls) came almost exclusively on pitches from the center of the zone up, and from the middle of the plate away, when he was batting against right-handers. As a righty, facing lefties, Polanco remains what he’s always been. He has great contact skills, but the plane of his swing from that side is flat. He’s more aggressive and more reliant on his speed, as well as on using the whole field. That makes him more likely to age well from the left side of the plate, but definitely exposes him to some matchup vulnerabilities. More importantly, the fact that the unimposing Polanco both fails to consistently generate hard contact and relies on power generated on outside offerings, suggests that he might not find even double-digit home runs if the juice is suddenly taken out of the baseball. Traditionally, there’s been an expectation that power develops late, and that a player finds more pop as he reaches his mid- and late 20s. That’s hard to count on in Polanco’s case, though. Firstly, with Statcast data, we have an easier time identifying the best candidates for power boosts, and Polanco doesn’t seem like one of them, given his batted-ball profile. He’s not blessed with the bat speed to generate exceptionally hard contact, such that he might do so more consistently with age and polish. Secondly, as the game has evolved to favor youth (and as sports science has advanced to prepare bodies for the highest level of competition at earlier ages), we see players make those jumps sooner. Indeed, given that Polanco has already solved his launch-angle problem from the left side, he might already have made the biggest advancement of which he’s capable. None of this means Polanco can’t make adjustments and continue to hit for power, even as teams try to find ways to neutralize the power he’s developed, and even if the ball does lose its juice. We’ve seen Didi Gregorius, another lithe and relatively unmuscled shortstop, sustain consistent power production despite unimpressive Statcast batted-ball data in the aggregate. Some of that is attributable to Gregorius having played his home games at Yankee Stadium, but some of it lies in his ability to punish mistakes, and to shift between looking for a pitch to drive in the air and looking for something he can punch through the infield. Polanco already makes that transition fluidly, based on situations, and he’s a better runner than Gregorius, which allows him to sustain a higher BABIP. His offensive profile isn’t wholly dependent on power. If he wants to be the Twins’ third baseman or left fielder of the future, though, he’ll need to continue adapting, and find ways to hit the ball hard more consistently. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' tough Rule 5 draft decisions, the future of Wander Javier, the White Sox pushing to make the AL Central a three-team race, signing away your entire career for $24 million, the pros and cons of C.J. Cron, and mailbag questions. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

It is an unsafe world out there. All you can do is keep your head on a swivel, prepare them as best you can, and let them know that at least for now, Jose Abreu still only has a one-year deal.

I would really, really, REALLY like to see him repeat his performance this year. That to me is the biggest question. We know he can overcome adversity. But can he overcome success?

Yeah, but this isn't trading for minor leaguers. It's trading for major leaguers. I'd give some cautionary notes there. Certainly that didn't work well in the Sam Dyson trade. Maybe the chaos and urgency of a trade deadline worked against them, but they clearly didn't see he was damaged good when they scouted him. Jake Odorizzi looked good last year, but he didn't look terribly good the year after they acquired him, though it looks like they got away without giving up too much.Love Sergio Romo. No arguments there. Finally, the only other time I remember them trading for a major leaguer was the 2017 trade deadline debacle. They traded for Jaime Garcia, but then panicked and reversed course a few days later, traded him away, traded away their closer Brandon Kintzler - and then won the Wild Card. That's a pretty mixed bag of major league trades. I'd perhaps conclude they did a decent job in some of their 2018 deadline trades that look like they're paying out. But I'll hold back on evaluating them until I see how this offseason works out.